Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Re-Posting: US Refiners Post Record Crude Oil Processing In CY18

In all the clutter this morning, worth re-posting:

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.
Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.
U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.
China refiners also broke records in 2018.

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The Book Page 

The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018

Conversion:
25 silver denarii = 1 gold aureus

The book deals with one fundamental question: how did the Roman Empire function, and, in particular, how did it pay for its military costs?

What I am interested in: connecting the dots of pagan Roman rites, Saudi Arabia, and Christian myths and legends. 


T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 4 -- NOG Provides Update

Bakken operators are tracked here. But, as noted, not always updated. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

NOG: a proxy for the Bakken.

Press release.
  • repurchase program: 12.0 million shares since October 1, 2018; almost 5 million shares in CY19 through January 21, 2019
  • 4Q18 crude oil production: expected to be in the upper half of prior guidance of 35,000 - 36,000 boepd despite constraints
  • 2019 hedges: $63/bbl
  • completions in line with expectations
  • NOG added 7.7 net wells to production in 4Q18 (exactly 25% of full year addition)
  • CY2018: 30.8 net wells brought to production 
  • expects 4Q18 differential will be between $9.00 and $10.00 per bbl
  • 2018 differential: modestly (sic) above the high end of prior guidance of $4.76 - $5.75
  • differentials in 1Q19 have improved substantially from 4Q18
  • 4Q18 LOE were better than anticipated: as a result, full year 2018 average LOE is now expected to be slightly below the low end of prior guidance of $7.50 to $7.75/per bbl
  • CY2019: NOG anticipates strong cash flow from operations; will exceed the company's CAPEX budget
  • company strategy: the company acquired approximately 1.0 net producing well, 3.3 net wells in process and 8,465 net acres in the fourth quarter and first few weeks of January at an average price of $1,785 per acre. As the natural consolidator of non-operated working interests in the Williston Basin, Northern believes this trend will disproportionately benefit the company.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 2-- Despite Videos, Most Airport Wait Times Were Within TSA Standards

SOTU: one week from today. The one thing we all know: Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be in attendance. She (might) watch from home. More likely, her aides will read the transcript.

Day 32 of the partial government shutdown.

Tipping point: the other day I posted that 15% was the tipping point. That's the percent of TSA screeners calling in sick that will signal a "tipping point." There is a quick and very interesting solution to the TSA problem, by the way, but I will let folks think about it. Hint: free market capitalism. Back to the TSA news:
  • Unscheduled absences of airport security screeners reached a record 10 percent on Sunday 
  • the TSA has called up National Deployment Officers to operate checkpoints as more screeners are absent
  • most airport wait times were within TSA standards
  • comment: but that was over a weekend in which 4,500+ flights were canceled due to weather. We'll have a better idea  how things go today -- first day back to work after a long 3-day weekend. 
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I Can See Clearly Now



I Can See Clearly Now, Johnny Nash

Sixteen Wells Will Be Reported Out Today -- January 22, 2019

Two gazillion unemployed males? You think China ready to deal? China's economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in two years. Link here 

Open book test: a written examination during which an examinee is permitted to consult references to answer questions calling for organization, analysis, or judgment, rather than memorization.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: rising sharply.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.


Wells coming off the confidential list today --

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte, 

Monday, January 21, 2019
34885, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10B, Heart Butte;
34876, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-7H,  Haystack Butte, producing,
33779, conf, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 3B, Willow Creek, a very nice well,

Sunday, January 20, 2019
32926, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
23940, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Saturday, January 19, 2019
34493, conf, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-2H, Spring Creek, a very nice well,
33971, conf, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek, a huge well, the Enerplus heavy metal pad is tracked here;
23937, conf, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Active rigs:


$53.221/22/201901/22/201801/22/201701/22/201601/22/2015
Active Rigs67583847159

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.
Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.
U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 1 -- New England Burning Oil At A Rapid Clip To Stay Ahead Of The Curve

ISO New England: oil (10%); coal (%); renewables (10% and trending down during peak demand); link here -- I think this is the highest I've seen oil burning so far during Winter Storm Harper; Winter Storm Indra to follow; Watertown, MA, was 25 degrees below zero this morning (?) with wind chill at -40 degrees. At -40 degrees, by the way, Celsius = Fahrenheit.


Blackouts? Remarkably I'm not seeing much in the national news regarding blackouts. If accurate, the utilities deserve a huge shout-out -- keeping ahead of all of this. I'm not even hearing of any massive forest fires in Maine due to sparking transmission wires. Just saying. 

The good news: this weather will only last a few weeks.

The bad news: the world will end in twelve years, if we don't "attack" climate change -- Occasional Cortex -- let's see if she takes out a 30-year mortgage on a house. Link here. She and I are watching two different movies. Racial reparations back on the table. Immoral: our system allows billionaires to exist. Wow, Nancy has her hands full.

Davos, link here.


How much you wanna bet we see Occasional-Cortex in Davox next year? Wow, I hope she runs for president in 2020. The majority of her supporters don't know she is not eligible to serve; and the rest don't care.

Monday, January 21, 2019

Off The Net Tonight -- It Will Be A Busy Day Tomorrow

Got Lithium? Warren Buffett Does -- But Does He Have Cobalt? January 21, 2019

Link at The Financial Times.

Bottom line: Warren Buffett now "guarantees" the US car industry will have enough lithium for EVs. This is really quite amazing.

From the linked story:
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has made a move into lithium, holding talks over an agreement to allow extraction of the battery mineral from its geothermal wells in California. 
The venture hopes to produce up to 90,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year from Berkshire’s Salton Sea geothermal plants, worth $1.5 billion at current prices. It has been in discussions to supply Tesla with lithium, a component for batteries to power electric cars, said people familiar with the company. If successful, the project could offer US carmakers and battery producers a secure supply of the metal, reducing reliance on the handful of large producers in Chile and Australia
The only current US supply comes from the Silver Peak mine in Nevada, run by Albemarle.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

From a google search:
Open book exams allow you to take notes, texts or resource materials into an exam situation. They test your ability to find and apply information and knowledge, so are often used in subjects requiring direct reference to written materials, like law statutes, statistics or acts of parliament.
Read disclaimer again.

Now cobalt. See this over at Bloomberg.
The man strolled over to unlock the doors, revealing hundreds of orange and blue drums piled four-high on pallets. Each container was full of chunks of cobalt, a formerly obscure, unwanted metal that got its name from the German kobold, or “goblin,” because it vexed medieval miners who, trying to extract more valuable substances from its ore, were instead rewarded with worthless powder or toxic gas.
It’s lately become highly valuable because it prevents the lithium-ion batteries found in mobile phones and electric cars from overheating and bursting into flames. Cobalt’s value surged more than 300 percent from 2016 to its 2018 high, reaching a record of almost $100,000 a ton.

The Newfield Berg Federal Wells

The wells:
  • 34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
  • 34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing,  
  • 34877, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-6H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
    34876, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-7H,  Haystack Butte, producing,  

  • 22582, 571, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-2H,  Haystack Butte, t4/13; cum 194K 11/18; off-line as of 9/18;
  • 22581, 1,482, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-1H,  Haystack Butte, t4/13; cum 164K 11/18; off-line as of 9/18;
  • 22583, 1,010, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-3H,  Haystack Butte, t4/13; cum 167K 11/18; off-line as of 9/18;
The graphic:

Meanwhile:
  • 20803, 533, CLR, Palmer 1-25H, Haystack Butte, t11/11; cum 194K 11/18; off-line as of 10/18; 
For newbies: good, bad, or indifferent -- who cares whether #20803 was economic or not (it will be, if not already); it held the lease by production for eight years -- no small accomplishment. Ninety percent of non-Bakken wells were dry, non-economic, or unremarkable. Virtually 100% of Bakken wells are economical or serve their purpose. In this case, #20803 held a drilling unit until eleven more wells could be drilled (and more than that will ultimately be drilled).

Risk-Based Data Management System -- North Dakota -- Second State To Implement -- January 21, 2019

It's getting pretty cold when New England is burning more oil than coal, and electricity is surging to $150/MWh. Link here. At 8%, oil is now accounting for almost as much electricity as renewable energy (9%). Winter Storm Harper coming to an end; 4:31 p.m. January 21, 2019. In the big scheme of things it appears Harper was hyped based on media coverage (or should we say lack of media coverage) on Martin Luther King's day. Later: on ABC Nightly News earlier this evening, the on-scene reporter was interviewing people on the street in NYC where "they" said it was freezing. The woman said she had never been so cold. She had a winter coat and scarf on, but no gloves. Are you kidding? Coldest she has ever seen ... and ... and gloves, no mittens. And her hands looked perfectly fine; not red, nothing to suggest she was "freezing." Also, interestingly enough, one saw no "breath" (i.e., water vapor) from any of the people interviewing or being interviewed). It did not look all that cold, at least to someone who grew up in North Dakota. The background showed no significant snow drifts and the traffic was moving fine.

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Now, Back To The Bakken

To come back to these later: risk-based data management system. 
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What We Will Be Talking About In February

Thinking out loud:
  • does it make sense that the US Coast Guard is being paid, but not TSA?
  • is "the Wall" issue really a "right-sizing Federal government" issue?
"The Wall":
  • Trump talks about a physical wall
  • failure to negotiate has resulted in a more impenetrable "real" wall for all immigrants

20 - 70 Years Of Drilling Left In The Bakken -- January 21, 2019

From NDIC's annual update to the North Dakota state legislature, slide #13 of 42.


From same source, slide #21 of 42:


Oh-Oh! -- January 21, 2019 -- "Quebec, We Have A Problem"

Updates

Later, 9:27 p.m. Central Time: natural gas at 42%; nuclear at 26%; renewables at 11%; oil at 9%; and, coal at 6%. Hydroelectricity at 6%. If it weren't for coal and oil .... and, oh, by the way, ISO New England is still on track to decommission another nuclear plant (or two). 

Later, 4:22 p.m. Central Time: it's now almost dinner-time in New England, 5:22 p.m. And at 8%, oil accounts for almost as much electricity as renewable energy (9%). Most interesting is the small amount provided by hydroelectricity from Canada. Electricity is approaching $200/MWh. Link here:


Later, 1:14 p.m. Central Time: it has to be bad when ISO New England is burning more oil than coal:




Original Post 

If this were not a holiday, New England would be experiencing rolling blackouts or brownouts -- it would not be a pretty picture.

I don't recall how long it's been since I've seen prices in ISO New England go from green to yellow.

Not only are they burning coal (5%) but they are now burning oil (5%).

On top of this, hydro from Quebec may become a huge issue. See story below the ISO New England graphs.

Winter Storm Indra is right behind Winter Storm Harper.

Tuesday could be very, very interesting.

And yes, the grid spiked to nearly $200/MWh.  Burning coal, oil, and wood chips, I suppose. The big story is that renewables continue to flatline.



From iceagenow: it's even too cold in Quebec --


When does "weather" become "climate." Ever since 1994, it seems, there have been more reports of "mini-ice-age" than "global warming." Let's see .... almost 25 years. Whatever.

From iceacenow:


Without question, the scientific articles and the reporting by skeptics certainly do a much better job of persuasion than the AGW folks.

On another note: wow, I'm glad the US did not attend Davos this year. A bunch of elites telling us how to live within a smaller carbon footprint. President Trump seems to be one of the few who has seen through the hypocrisy.

By the way, it's well proven that hypocrisy is of no use in "persuasion" or debates. I think Scott Adams noted that.

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Coins

A huge collectible in the US military were "unit" coins. For the USAF, the units were squadrons, groups, and wings. They each had their own coin. One always carried your unit's coin. You show up at the bar and someone throws down a coin. If you don't throw down your own unit coin, you buy drinks for the house.

I really had not paid attention to such coins in a long, long time.

While visiting Los Alamos earlier this month, these coins popped up again.

These are the Hans Bethe coins, fairly rare. I got one (free). Our middle granddaughter also got a free Hans Bethe coin but she did one better. She got an ever rarer Los Alamos coin. I need to get a photo of her coin.

This is the Hans Bethe coin:


Gasoline To Other Forms Of Transportation Energy -- A Converstion Table


Monday, Martin Luther King Day, Much Closed -- January 21, 2019, T+19

Hot in Australia: $10,000/ MWh for air conditioning in Australia later today. Australia has taken the lead in renewable energy.

Link here for the graphs.

This link will take you to similar graphs last summer.

The folks over at Jo Nova love to talk about this.

This was a big, big issue last year for the Australians but it looks like nothing has happened. Australia has lots and lots of coal, natural gas, and sunshine.

In Victoria: $10,000/MWh to air condition one's house later today.


In South Australia, $10,500/MWh to air condition one's house later today.

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Softball

Day 31 of the partial government shutdown, which is beginning to look more and more like an airport issue. I haven't heard much about the national parks being closed since the early days of the shutdown. 

On another note, even Chris thinks Shelosi has thrown the Dreamers under the bus.

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A Note for the Granddaughters

Our middle granddaughter is playing in a national soccer tournament in Las Vegas, Nevada, over the three-day weekend.

Yesterday morning, Olivia scored the winning goal for her team. In fact, Olivia's goal was the only goal of the game. The teams were very evenly matched. With about four minutes left to play, Olivia took shot on goal. The ball was deflected, but Olivia followed it in and scored. Olivia is a mid-fielder, not a striker or a forward making her goal all that more impressive.

I got word overnight that her team won their evening game, 1 - 0, and will now advance to semi-finals this morning.

Pretty exciting.

Sunday, January 20, 2019

DUCs -- It's Complicated -- January 20, 2019

Nick Cunningham over at oilprice suggests that DUCs will make crude oil production hard to forecast going forward. One could argue that's been a problem for quite some time.

I doubt we will ever be able to find out who coined the "DUC" acronym but without a doubt Lynn Helm was the first to use it on a regular basis when talking about the Bakken. DrillingInfo takes the acronym back to 2014, at least in the archives at the link.

I have a tag for "DUCs" but I don't use the tag much any more, most recently November 24, 2018.

Anyway, back to Nick Cunningham and DUCs. Here's the link
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.
The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.
Some level of DUCs is normal, but the ballooning number of uncompleted wells has repeatedly fueled speculation that a sudden rush of new supply might come if companies shift those wells into production. The latest crash in oil prices once again raises this prospect.
The calculus on completing wells can cut two ways. On the one hand, lower oil prices – despite the recent rebound, prices are still down sharply from a few months ago – can cause some E&Ps to want to hold off on drilling new wells. That may lead them to decide to complete wells they already drilled as a way of keeping production aloft while husbanding scarce resources. Companies that are posting losses may be desperate for revenues, so they may accelerate the rate of completions from their DUC backlog.
North Dakota allows two years from spud to completion; it used to be a year. I don't know what the rules are in other states. But North Dakota will permit DUCs to exceed two years but require a waiver. Those are rare.
But completing DUCs is low-hanging fruit. The cost of drilling a well accounts for 30 to 40 percent of the total cost.
As a result, companies deciding on whether to bring a DUC online has already incurred the drilling costs. A shale company may decide to scale back on new drilling this year because of low prices, but the rush of fresh supply from DUCs may allow output to continue to grow. Of course, any decline in new drilling will eventually be felt in the production data, but that may not show up until somewhere down the line. More completions from the DUC backlog could keep near-term production figures on the rise.
How this shakes out is anybody’s guess, but at a minimum, the explosion in DUCs over the past two years complicates oil production forecasts for this year.
By the way, that data point that the cost of drilling a well accounts for 30 to 40 percent of the total cost is an interesting data point. I had thought the same thing. During the early days of the Bakken boom, drilling/completion were closer to 50/50 but drilling is now incredibly less expensive.

Nine Point Energy WIll Report A Nice Well This Week -- January 20, 2019

The well:
  • 34493, conf, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-2H, Spring Creek, a very nice well, fracked 6/10/2108 -7/12/2018, 6.7 million gallons of water, 87.2% water by mass:

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20182266721969
    10-20182928529907
    9-20181769820246
    8-20182644022283
    7-201836223341
The graphics:



Other wells:
  • 34490, 1,652, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-13H, Rawson, 60 stages; 10 million lbs, mostly 100 mesh, t7/18; cum 108K 11/18;
  • 34491, 1,126, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-4H, Spring Creek, 60 stages; 12 million lbs, mostly 100 mesh, t7/18; cum 103K 11/18;
  • 34492, 1,287, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-3H, Spring Creek, 60 stages; 10 million lbs, mostly 100 mesh, t7/18; cum 106K 11/18;
  • 34493, see above.

  • 26725, 436, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-1H, Spring Creek, t4/14; cum 229K 11/18, recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20182850375010217411242981394290
BAKKEN10-20183168086827365891264396902953
BAKKEN9-201825383238103265062155773442
BAKKEN8-201828328832734087132592409850
BAKKEN7-201820874929644519
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-201826144514981308191719170
BAKKEN4-201830196219721829239923990
BAKKEN3-201831213622762123261826180
BAKKEN2-201822102197411142902900
BAKKEN1-201831204720462034277927790
BAKKEN12-20173120612071196634513282170
BAKKEN11-2017301845171517992996297026

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Bookstore Outing With Papa

Hot chocolate and a chocolate chip cookie
Peppa
A set of "Bob" books

The Winter Storm Page, T+18 -- January 20, 2019

Foul bigley. Less than two minutes to play, the NFL officials miss a huge penalty. Huge penalty. NFL officials fail to call penalty on Rams. Had they called the penalty it would have guaranteed a home game win for the New Orleans Saints. Only way to read it: NFL officials did not want to be "blamed" for winning the game for the Saints. But the refs really, really blew it. Rams can now win or take it to overtime. Later: Saints lose in overtime. Saints fans have every reason to be very, very upset. It will be interesting to hear Rush Limbaugh's take on this.

Prediction: I'll go out on a limb here and predict that the New England Patriots will defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. Bigley. Later: wow, that was close.

Heat. Link here. New Englanders are paying $85/MWh to heat their homes right now during Winter Storm Harper using 6% coal to maintain the grid. After supplying a max of 1791MW earlier this morning, renewables are starting to peter out, currently at 1624 MW, or 12% of demand.

Montreal: winter festival canceled -- too cold. I can't make this stuff up.

Alexa: what time does the football game start today? The Rams take on the Saints at 2:05 p.m. Central Time.

Alexa: what's more important, the wall or the NFL playoffs? Alexa: "Do you want to hear a joke?"

*****************
The Art Page

From last night:



 

The Transportation Page -- T+18, January 20, 2019

Day 30 of the partial government shutdown.

North Dakota: only state in the union that has no Tesla chargers. The only state. Tesla promised "a" charging unit for North Dakota for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 .... but not to be. 

Cost to fully charge a Tesla: Via a google search:

Hold that thought: more to come.

110-car unit trains? So yesterday. Now the trains are up to three miles long.
The freight train is now on track to stretch up to 3 miles long, with 200 cars or more. 
Railroads are taking advantage of the nearly $100 billion spent on rail infrastructure and equipment over the past several years. The spending included high-horsepower locomotives and upgraded track strong enough to withstand the extreme forces that can pull a long, heavy train off of the track on tight curves.
Some railroads are adding remotely controlled diesel locomotives at the end or in the middle of superlong trains so that locomotives are both pulling and shoving at the same time. Distributing the locomotive power reduces the heavy loads on the couplers that can break a train in two, improves train handling by reducing slack action and makes brake applications quicker and smoother.
Custom Critical. I assume FedEx has had this for years. I was unaware until I saw a FedEx Custom Critical truck parked in Barnes and Noble parking lot, Southlake, TX, this morning. It has a huge tractor suggesting that two or three people "lodge" in this vehicle while driving point-to-point, long haul. See this link. Where did Custom Critical come from?


Back to Tesla: cutting costs. By raising prices. From the linked article:
Tesla's efforts to improve its bottom line go beyond layoffs and disappearing perks. Electrek has learned that Tesla is raising Supercharger rates around the world, with per kWh rates climbing about 33 percent in numerous markets. While it's still less expensive than gas (even the 36 cents per kWh in some California locations is modest), it's not quite the savings it represented in the past. According to Tesla, this is really a matter of adapting to financial realities.
So, at 13 cents/kWh, the full charge would cost $13. At 36 cents/kWh I would assume the cost is $36. That full charge, $36 would give one a range of 295 miles. On fumes, pulling into a service station to fill my 2012 Honda Civic costs me just under $20. Interstate driving in Kansas on a full tank with the wind at my back, my range is around 525 miles.

At four hundred miles, I stop and fill up with gasoline, taking about 6.5 minutes (after getting snacks inside) instead of waiting 30 - 45 minutes to re-charge -- assuming a charging station is even available.

I don't know. You do the math.

"Even the 36 cents per kWh in some California locations is modest." For elites, perhaps.

A Nice Enerplus Well That Will Be Coming Off The Confidential List This Week -- January 20, 2019

The well:
Early production data:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20182275021668
10-20182995422595
9-2018289464965
8-2018503561622
7-2018138551622

Older wells in the area include the following. These wells are tracked elsewhere and the data won't be updated here:
  • 18752, 2,194, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 17A-20-1H, t7/10; cum 475K 11/18; steady Eddy, no jump in production;
  • 18753, 1,594, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 8D-5-1H, t7/10; cum 571K 11/18; steady Eddy, but also a huge jump in production in 12/12;

  • 20931, PNC, Enerplus, Copper,
  • 20932, PNC, Enerplus, Rocket,


  • 18627, 746, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 9C-4-1H, t4/12; cum 267K 11/18; steady Eddy, but also some subtle jumps in production over the years;
  • 18790, 1,773, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 16B-21-1H, t10/10; cum 463K 11/18; steady Eddy, but also a huge jump in production in 12/12;

  • 20606, PNC, Enerplus, Saturn,
  • 20608, PNC, Enerplus, Venus,

  • 20405, PA/830, MRO, Boy Chief USA 11-15H, Moccasin Creek, t12/11; cum 52K 8/15;
  • 20974, 730, MRO, Boy Chief USA 11-15H, Moccasin Creek, t1/12; cum 5216K 11/18;

  • 23085, 2,506, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 16-10-3-3H3, Moccasin Creek, t12/12; cum 326K 11/18;

The Enerplus Heavy Metal Pad

The graphic:


Enerplus' "heavy metal" pad:
  • 33967, loc, Enerplus, Cobalt 147-93-09D-04H,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20182533019107
    9-2018284944887
    8-2018508112650
    7-2018226302650

  • 33968, 932, Enerplus, Nickel 147-93-16B-21H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 33 stages; 5.9 million lbs, t8/18; cum 10/18:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-2018301755417484198171228767964413
    BAKKEN9-2018221999220032207661399492474094
    BAKKEN8-201831282922795838928198055819746
    BAKKEN7-20181236226349316558106
    BAKKEN6-20181600000

  • 33969, loc, Enerplus, Steel 147-93-09D-04H-TF,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20181727613032
    9-2018264424535
    8-201835723108
    7-2018923108

  • 33970, loc, Enerplus, Tungsten 147-93-16A-21H,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2018207598070
    9-20182618912090
    8-2018476934504
    7-2018175344504

  • 33971, loc, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H,

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20182995422595
    9-2018289464965
    8-2018503561622
    7-2018138551622

  • 33972, loc, Enerplus, Lead 147-93-16B-21H-TF, 

  • DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2018181457053
    9-20182666812311
    8-2018346311747
    7-201868021747


  • 33973, loc, Enerplus, Titanium 147-93-16A-21H,
  • 33974, loc, Enerplus, Silver 147-93-09D-04H,
  • 33975, loc, Enerplus, Platinum 147-93-16A-21H,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 20, 2019

Monday, January 28, 2019
35031, conf, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte, no production data,
34000, conf, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-2, Banks, no production data,

Sunday, January 27, 2019
35032, conf, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34198, conf, CLR, Norway 8-5H, Fancy Buttes, producing, 
34007, conf, CLR, Radermecher 7-2H2, Camel Butte, a nice well,
33661, conf, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 2B, Banks, a nice well, 
32533, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-4H, Charlson, no production data,

Saturday, January 26, 2019
35033, conf, XTO, RBIR Youngbear 31X-9C, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34008, conf, CLR, Radermecher 8-22H, Camel Butte, producing,

Friday, January 25, 2019
35034, conf, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, no production data,
30052, conf, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HF, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Thursday, January 24, 2019
35035, conf, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9D, Heart Butte, no production data, 
33972, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-4H, Moccasin Creek, a very nice well,
30051, conf, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HU, Spotted Horn, no production data, 

Wednesday, January 23, 2019
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-20H2, Elidah, producing, but not much,

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte, 

Monday, January 21, 2019
34885, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10B, Heart Butte;
34876, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-7H,  Haystack Butte, producing,
33779, conf, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 3B, Willow Creek, a very nice well,

Sunday, January 20, 2019
32926, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
23940, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Saturday, January 19, 2019
34493, conf, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-2H, Spring Creek, a very nice well,
33971, conf, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek, a huge well, the Enerplus heavy metal pad is tracked here;
23937, conf, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Time To Get Up -- January 20, 2019

Updates

Later, 8:39 a.m. CT: now that I've had an hour to reflect on the news coming out of the midwest to New England regarding Winter Storm Harper, the storms in eastern and northeastern New Mexico -- Taos south to Albuquerque  -- were much, much worse than what I've seen so far this morning. The big difference, of course, the number of folks affected, and the ice on trees that will cause huge power outages. But the early morning focus seemed to be on all the good skiing the Kennedy family will have in Vermont.

Original Post
Australia, link here, air conditioning costs, heat wave:
  • NSW: $70;MWh
  • VIC: $134/MWh
  • SA: $134/MWh
ISO New England, link here, heaing, winter storm Harper:
  • coal: 6% 
  • spiked to $175/MWh but now back to $50/MWh
Weather Channel
  • excited about the skiing in Vermont; that seems to be the lead story on the Weather Channel today -- reporting centered in Vermont
  • municipalities appear to be "keeping up"
  • ice on trees big concern: power outages
  • overall: a big storm but hey! it's winter
  • but overall, pretty much a non-story until we start getting reports of power outages
  • time for soup? nope, time for coffee ...
Time for coffee, from theglobaleconomy -- after the BBC reported that global warming will lead to shortage of coffee --

Whack-a-mole; it seems that it has come down to this -- everyday we get a new scare what global warming will do to us, and then someone actually checks the data.

By the way, speaking of "mole" -- and yet another definition of mole of which I was unaware. While reading The Campaigns of Alexander: The Landmark Arrian, edited by James Romm, c. 2010, I ran across a line in which the author said Alexander built a mole from the coast to the city. I had no idea what Arrian was talking about. A mole? Built a mole from the coast to an inland city? A mole:


Saturday, January 19, 2019

XTO's Little Pete Federal Wells In Bear Creek

The wells went off line 7/18 but one has come back on line:
  • 32218, 888, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3D, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 182K 7/18; off line as of 7/18;
  • 32220, 1,080, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3DXA, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 178K 7/18; off line as of 7/18;
  • 32217, 812, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3G2, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 158K 11/18; was taken off line 7/18, but is now back on line as of 10/18;
  • 32219, 816, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3H, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 174K 7/18; off line as of 7/18;
  • 32221, 962, XTO, Little Pete Federal 41X-3HXE2, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 130K 7/18; off line as of 7/18;
The graphic:



Older wells in that drilling unit:
  • 14696, AB/820, XTO, Bear Creek Unit 3-1, Bear Creek, Duperow, t3/98; cum 338K 6/16;
  • 17880, AB/1,206, XTO, Werre Trust 21-3H, Bear Creek, t10/09; cum 177K 4/16; off line as of 4/16;

January 19, 2019 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Shelosi Throw Dreamers Under The Bus

Updates

January 20, 2019: even if mainstream media is trying to ignore it, President Trump "dangles full amnesty" and Shelosi won't negotiate. Shelosi throwing the Dreamers under the bus and literally missing the opportunity to do something as big as LBJ's civil rights bill.

Original Post 

Perhaps it's just me, but sitting her watching the coverage of Winter Storm Harper on the Weather Channel certainly suggests ice age now is going to have a much bigger impact on the US than AGW. Just saying.

CODEL: ship of fools. 

Dreamers: Shelosi throw Dreamers under the bus. Trump endorses Obama's memo. Dreamers would get what they have always wanted. Shelosi: the proposal is DOA. The partial government shutdown will continue. Trump willing to negotiate. Shelosi dug in. Let's see whom the Dreamers support. TSA? My hunch is that the airlines will start taking control of the situation if TSA employees continue calling in sick.

Yes! Do it! Starbucks ex-CEO considers presidential run as independent.

Another adult in the room:


Correction? What correction? From Chesto over at The Boston Globe:
More news about potential progress in US-China trade talks stocks sent stocks higher today. The Dow rose 336.25 points, or 1.4 percent. The S&P 500 climbed 1.3 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1 percent. For the Dow and S&P 500, it was the fourth straight week of gains and marked the best start to a year since 1987.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #56 -- January 19, 2019

Just after posting this at top stories for the week:  
The story that simply disappeared: the Mexican fuel shortage
This was an AP headline story:
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador says the attorney general’s office will investigate an illegal pipeline tap in central Mexico that killed 66 and wounded dozens of others.
At an early morning press conference he said that the office will open an investigation to determine whether the explosion was intentional — caused by an individual or group — or whether the fireball occurred due to the inherent risk of clandestine fuel extraction from ducts.
Lopez Obrador called on townspeople to give testimony not only about Friday’s events in Hidalgo, but about the entire black market chain, including who punctures the pipelines, who informs locals about collecting fuel in containers, and how fuel is then put to personal use or sold.
Something tells me this is not going to end well. 

China -- Again -- January 19, 2019

Back on February 5, 2018, I posted a map of China with an overlay of US cities as a tool to help me remember the geography of China. It has been a big help.

Earlier this week I saw this story/by-line and immediately knew where Dongguan (various spellings).


The map from February 5, 2018:


Well Said -- Worth Repeating, T+17 -- January 19, 2019