Monday, October 21, 2019

DUCs; DOGOFF Deals; Cheap Wells: EURs; Advantaged Oil; And, All That Jazz -- October 21, 2019

Focus on Fracking: the weekly note has been posted. Link here. I bet you can't read it in five minutes.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. This is a commentary which means opinions will be interspersed with facts and one may not notice the difference. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Observations: each one of these observations by themselves means nothing, but taken as a whole -- there may be a pony --
  • the number of active rigs in North Dakota has gone from the low 50s to 62 in the past couple of weeks;
  • North Dakota production, oil and natural gas hit all-time production records, two months in a row; natural gas production has been setting new production records for quite some time now;
  • WTI is holding at $53/bbl despite huge inventory builds over the past few weeks;
  • the natural gas inventory nationally is at record highs; North Dakota breaks the 3 billion cfd natural gas threshold and is improving on capture;
  • the Bakken wells are nothing short of spectacular; the only reason the national press has not noticed (well there are two reasons):
    • fossil fuel production is not part of their narrative 
    • "the frog in a warming pot of water on a stove" metaphor
  • operators in addition to CLR, WLL, MRO, WPX are starting to get active again: EOG, Zavanna, Oasis, Newfield; today, e.g., eight new permits -- Zavanna and Newfield
Operators: I have not posted it, but I've long thought that once we see operators like Zavanna and Newfield get back in the game, "something is up" -- and they've gotten back in just before winter sets in; they're not getting these permits to hold them until next July.

Better wells: we are seeing more and more "ideal wells" in the Bakken -- my definition of an ideal well is a well that pays for itself in six months and then continues to out-perform, providing a steady stream of income for 35 years.

EUR-type curves: interestingly enough, we don't see much talk about EURs any more? Maybe I'm not paying attention, but if that's true, it's probably because investors -- and operators are really listening to their investors right now -- could care less about EURs; investors want to see short-term gains; great cash flow;

Value: in fact, the traditional way of valuing Big Oil operators (XOM, CVX, COP, etc) may be changing. We used to value a Big Oil company on two things:
  • earnings
  • growth in reserves
Does anyone even care about growth in reserves any more? "Everybody" is clamoring for short-term gain. Screw the 20-year horizon. If it looks like XOM is going to run out of oil, investors will jump ship and buy AAPL. They just hope they are at the front of the line when they sell.

Saudi Aramco: exhibit A. Is anyone valuing the IPO on growth in reserves? LOL. There will be no growth. Unless Saudi Aramco starts buying up "plays" overseas, their reserves remain flat. Saudi Aramco? Investors are only interested in the company's return, and I, for one, don't see much growth (see disclaimer). Their money will be in refined products and petro-chemicals (plastics and fertilizer).

Bakken operators: about two or three years ago, maybe more, it was obvious that the geographical footprint of the Bakken was relatively small; even though folks said there it would take another 20 years to drill out the Bakken and the Bakken wells would continue to produce through 2100, the writing was on the wall. The Bakken, as good as it was, was finite. And that "finite" looked to be only five to ten years out? What's a Bakken operator to do? There were two schools of thought: some operators over-spent, bet the farm, and followed the herd to the Permian, only to find out that at $50-WTI the numbers don't work. Other operators kept to their knitting, focused on the Bakken. [How Whiting could have such a bad 2Q19 earnings report is beyond me -- but that's another story for another time.] So, we'll see how this plays out.

CLR: seems to have taken the second option -- focus on the Bakken. But they took it one step farther -- damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Wow, CLR is on a tear. Some of it is obvious -- the Long Creek Unit, for example -- but I'm going through every permit issued so far in 2019, and it is quite amazing to see what CLR is doing. And that leads us to 2020, July, to be exact.

July 20, 2020: four scenarios:
  • WTI is falling and falling fast, trending toward $40-WTI: 50% chance
  • WTI is in a $50 - $55 trading range: 40% chance
  • WTI is moving and trending toward $60: a 9.9% chance
  • WTI is surging and trending toward $100: 0.1% chance
Existential. Saudi Arabia cannot survive on $60 Brent; nor will most US oil companies "thrive" on $50-WTI. And if they can't "thrive," their only hope is to "survive." And to "survive," they need to convince their investors and their bankers they will remain solvent, surviving long enough to get them to the next boom (hope springs eternal). The only way US oil operators will "survive" this environment (the first two scenarios) is to have free cash flow beyond expectations. It's my hunch that's exactly what Harold Hamm is thinking.

Wells have never been so cheap to drill, at least in the Bakken, as they are now. I'm also thinking that's what Harold Hamm is thinking. Infrastructure bills have been paid; up-front leasing money has been paid; drilling to depth is taking seven days and rig operators are laying down rigs so fast, they have to be giving huge discounts. Likewise, oil service operators, like Schlumberger and Halliburton, are probably offering DOGOFF deals. On top of that, maybe there is sand in North Dakota. The parent-daughter phenomenon ("advantaged oil" as Phillips 66 and BP call it) is truly unexpected.

DOGOFF deals: deals offered by oil service companies in which they will drill one at "going" rates and offering to drill a second one fast after the first one for free: "drill one, get one free, fast" or DOGOFF.

DUCs: it's my impression that DUCs are being completed more quickly than in the past. It's all anecdotal, but looking at the 2019 permits, it certainly appears DUCs are going to CONF and then reporting more quickly than what I'm used to. Remember, before DUCs came along, wells had to be completed within a year. Due to the Saudi Surge, NDIC allowed operators to shut in a well for two years before completing them. If operators are looking for free cash flow (see above) the DUC interval is going to become shorter. Argument against: in the latest Director's Cut, only 72 wells were completed in the most recent reporting period; generally about 120 wells are completed.

Bullish on the Bakken? There will be winners and losers. My hunch: mom-and-pop mineral owners will always be winners; most of them got their minerals for nothing, inheriting them from their homesteading grandparents. CEOs, CFOs, will always be winners. Even companies facing bankruptcy need CEOs and CFOs. Maybe even more so. Workers, as long as they stay employed, will be winners. Investors? I've talked about them before.

********************************
Back to the Daily Report

Active rigs:

$53.5110/21/201910/21/201810/21/201710/21/201610/21/2015
Active Rigs6271543468

Eight new permits, #37098 - #37105, inclusive (note: milestone, 37100th permit)
  • Operators: Newfield (5), Zavanna (3)
  • Fields: South Tobacco Garden, Poe
  • Comments:
    • Newfield has permits for a 5-well Obenour pad in section 21-150-99, South Tobacco Garden
    • Zavanna has permits for a 3-well James pad in section 3-151-100, Poe oil field;

Texas City Says It Is Paying Too Much For Energy -- October 21, 2019

As you read this story: remember --
Most Texas residents have the ability to choose their electricity provider in a competitive statewide market, leading to electricity prices that are among the lowest in the nation: 18 percent below the national average in 2018, and 48 percent below prices in green energy pacesetter California.
Update: the saga continues -- into the courts -- headline: Texas city famed for 100% renewables has too much power, wants out of solar contract. Link here.
[Georgetown muni] claims that with the excess power, coupled with low wholesale power prices, it was forced to raise monthly electricity rates earlier this year by $12.82 for its roughly 25,000 ratepayers.
The Georgetown muni says its average residential customer uses 949kWh a month, and pays an average monthly bill of $132.32. It notes that a customer of TXU Energy in the nearby town of Round Rock pays $118.63, while an Austin Energy customer is paying $96.22.
Comments:
  • $132.32 - $12.82 = $119.50 which was still on the high side; what is the rest of the story vis-à-vis Round Rock and Austin (neighboring cities)
    • 12.82 / 119.50 = an 11% jump month-over-month seems to be excessive; wasn't Georgetown muni watching their bottom numbers?
  • a contract is a contract
  • had there been no shale revolution, and had the price of natural gas "surged," the Georgetown city fathers would have looked like geniuses; they can't have it both ways;
  • when does the contract end?
  • how much will the lawsuits cost the city vs just letting the contracts run out?
  • earlier this year (see article below):
    • From Georgetown, TX: from their own website, the residents pay 11.10 cents/kWh, an incredible, whopping 1% more than the average rate paid by the rest of Texas, 10.98 cents/kWh. (I have not checked to see if the website has been updated/changed.)
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations:
  • average income
    • US average: $28,555
    • Austin, TX: $32,672 
    • Round Rock, TX: $30,605
    • Georgetown, TX: $31,605
  • median income:
    • US median income: $60,336 (link here)
    • Texas median income: $59,206
    • Austin, TX: $55,216
    • Round Rock, TX: $70,952
    • Georgetown, TX: $62,219
  • as a percentage of average income: percent annual utility costs (from linked article) income:
    • Austin, TX: $1,155 / $32,672 = 3.5351%
    • Round Rock, TX: $1,424 / $30,605 = 4.6528%
    • Georgetown, TX: $1,588 / $31,605 = 5.0245%
  • as a percent of median income
    • US median income: $60,336
    • Texas median income:  $59,206
    • Austin, TX: $1,155 / $55,216 =  2.0918%
    • Round Rock, TX: $1,424 / $70,952 = 2.007%
    • Georgetown, TX: $1,588 / $62,219 = 2.5523%
Based on official Texas state websites, it appears when comparing apples to apples, the states uses median income, not average income.

So, the folk in Georgetown, TX, whose median income is almost twice that of the US average, and slightly higher than the state of TX, are paying 0.55% more based on median income. Based on average income, the Georgetown, TX, folks are paying less than half-a-percent more than their sister city of Round Rock.

At just 2%, based on median income, it looks like Round Rock, TX, is doing an incredibly good job for their residents. 

Note: one can find many different numbers for average income and median income based on source and year.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and I may be starting with the wrong income figures. If this important to you, go to the source and do your own math.

Flashback: previously posted --

************************************
Fighting The Unicorn Is Expensive
From https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/texas-towns-environmental-narcissism-makes-al-gore-happy-while-sticking-its-citizens-with-the-bill
Political leaders in a college town in central Texas won wide praise from former Vice President Al Gore and the larger Green Movement when they decided to go “100 percent renewable” seven years ago. Now, however, they are on the defensive over electricity costs that have their residents paying more than $1,000 per household in higher electricity charges over the last four years.
That’s right - $1,219 per household in higher electricity costs for the 71,000 residents of Georgetown, Texas, all thanks to the decision of its Republican mayor, Dale Ross, to launch a bold plan to shift the city’s municipal utility to 100 percent renewable power in 2012.
Look at these numbers:
But while Ross was being lauded far and wide, the residents of his town were paying a steep price.
His decision to bet on renewables resulted in the city budget getting dinged by a total of $29.8 million in the four years from 2015 to 2018. [$30 million / 71,000 / 4 years =  $104/resident/year. Am I missing something? This works out to 30 cents/day. I often make simple arithmetic errors, but that's what I got.]
Georgetown’s electric costs were $3.5 million over budget in 2015, ballooning to $6.3 million in 2016, the same year the mayor locked his municipal utility into 20- and 25-year wind and solar energy contracts to make good on his 100 percent renewable pledge.
By 2017, the mayor’s green gamble was undercut by the cheap natural gas prices brought about by the revolution in high-tech fracking. Power that year cost the city’s budget $9.5 million more than expected, rising to $10.5 million last year, according to budget documents reported by The Williamson County Sun. [$10 million / 71,000 = $140 for the year or 40 cents/day. Again, maybe I'm missing something. This is less than a senior pays for coffee at McDonald's.]
And then this:
Most Texas residents have the ability to choose their electricity provider in a competitive statewide market, leading to electricity prices that are among the lowest in the nation: 18 percent below the national average in 2018, and 48 percent below prices in green energy pacesetter California.
Okay, so let's fact check. From Georgetown, TX: from their own website, the residents pay 11.10 cents/kWh, an incredible, whopping 1% more than the average rate paid by the rest of Texas, 10.98 cents/kWh.

This is exactly how FoxNews loses credibility. Or again, maybe I'm missing something. I quit watching Fox News a long time ago, but I do check in on their website daily.
**********************************************
Electricity Costs
North Texas (Dallas-Ft Worth Area)
1,100 Square Foot Apartment
No natural gas; all electricity

kWH from October, 2018, last year to September, 2019, this year:

2018 - 2019
kWh for the month
October 2018
514
November
1044
December
954
January 2019
1295
February
1232
March
653
April
441
May
361
June
263
July
559
August
733
September
467
Average for the year
710

Screenshot of electricity costs in September, 2019:


Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 21, 2019

The market: wow, what happened. The Dow closed essentially flat today, up 0.21% which is about as flat as one gets before going negative, but yet look at this:
  • cherry picking:
    • HES: up 1.5%
    • CVX: up 1.67%
    • EOG: up 5.02% -- wow!
    • UNP: up; 3.48% -- wow!
    • AAPL: up 1.73% -- but even more so, up $4.10, going over $240.51/share; market cap: $1.087 trillion
    • MSFT: market cap -- $1.057 trillion
    • SRE: up a bit
    • MPC: red/flat -- started strong but then faded
  • so, what happened; without looking at anything, the only thing that explains "all" of this -- positive news on China trade, or possibly more hints from the Fed (doubt the latter; putting money on the former)
  • so let's check, WTI: own 0.37% -- and yet HES, CVX, EOG, all up nicely.
  • can't find anything; must be something the movers and shakers on Wall Street know
  • a few more
    • PFE: absolutely flat; paying 3.95%
    • PCG: the troubled PG&E utility in California; San Jose mayor wants to take it "private" -- make it a consumer-owned utility; SRE needs to be watching closely; I think there are ways SRE could use this to their advantage; never let a crisis go to waste; strike while the iron is hot
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Merkel: new nominee for the 2019 Geico Rock Award; admits that "multi-culturalism" has "utterly" failed. Link here. Anyone paying attention knew that it had failed years ago; and anyone paying attention knew it was bound to fail.

We lived in Germany for seven years while serving in the USAF. The western Turks were the most likely to integrate into the German economy. They didn't. The new arrivals from the Mideast will never integrate.

The nominees for the 2019 Geico Rock Award are tracked here.

Germany argued for open borders because their "domestic" birth rate was negative (more folks dying/emigrating) than were being born. At the linked zerohedge article:
According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), Germany lacks approximately 400,000 skilled workers. 
One can be positively, absolutely sure that the recent arrivals from the Mideast are not "skilled workers" and will not become "skilled workers" any time soon.

*********************************
Jet Fuel From South Korean Refiners

Hello.


In case that is hard to read:
Jet fuel imported by Europe from South Korea in November, 2019, yet to be reported, could very well fall to zero ... nada ... zilch ... nil ... because of the high cost of freight.
The high cost of sea-going tankers has gotten so high it is not economical to ship from South Korea to Europe.

No tankers have been booked to leave South Korea this month.

One wonders to whom Europe is turning? Russia? LOL.

***********************************
All Politics
Based on Polls As of October 21, 2019
As Reported By RealClearPolitics

Most recent debate: October 15, 2019

Two most recent polls:
  • SUSA (SurveyUSA), October 15 - October 16, 2019, day or and day following the debate;
  • Politico: October 16 - October 16: the day following the debate
The Politico poll: the only poll taken in a 24-hour period immediately following the debate, the debate in which the Drudge Report clearly posted Klobuchar as the big winner:
  • Biden: 31% (one of his best numbers in recent polls)
  • Pocahontas: 21% (a really, really bad polling number for her)
  • Sanders: 18% (about where he's been polling)
  • Buttigieg: 6%
  • Klobuchar: 2%
Mainstream media:
  • either has "favorites"; and/or,
  • wants to keep the appearance of a horse race
October 21, 2019, T+43: fact check, now that two polls have come out that include the day of and the day following the most recent debate:
  • the media buzz: Pocahontas surging, Biden faltering; in fact --
    • the national polls show Biden dropping a bit (trend for him, troubling), while mixed for Pocahontas; depends on the poll; overall, maybe Pocahontas has gained a point to 25% but subtle). In the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, she and Biden are statistically tied, which has been true for quite some time)
  • Sanders is dropping, slowly but steadily; now down to 15% but that was before his huge Queens, NYC, rally, attended by all the folks that would have had Amazon jobs had AOC not stopped that corporate greed
  • the media buzz: Buttigieg is surging: in fact --
    • last five polls -- 4 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 with an overall average of 6.0.
    • in Iowa: 14 -- 16 -- 13; with an overall average of 14.3
    • in New Hampshire: 10 -- 7 -- 9; with an overall average of 8.7
    • in South Carolina: 2.5%
  • the media buzz: Klobuchar has gained momentum; it's her time to strike; in fact --
    • she polls #8 of 13 candidates; in every poll, and we mean every poll: 2.0%; not an iota of movement one way or the other; 
    • Iowa: are you kidding? also 2.0%
    • New Hampshire: much, much better, at 2.3%. LOL.
    • South Carolina: 1%
  • everybody else: statistically at zero 

Legacy Fund Deposits -- October, 2019

Link here.

October, 2019, deposits (not net asset value, but deposits only): $57,297,206.80, down slightly from September's deposits.


Of the nine years in existence, the October, 2019, deposits exceed the annual average for six of those nine years.

***************************************
From Sophia's Portfolio

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 21, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

BHGE now Baker Hughes Co, and new ticker symbol, BKR, pronounced "Baker."

F: 15 cents/share, ex-dividend today. Shares down 2 cents at the moment, 9:50 a.m. CT.

MRO vs MPC: Marathon Oil vs Marathon Petroleum Company.
  • Marathon Petroleum
    • MPC
    • spun off from Marathon Oil, June 30, 2011
    • refining
    • largest refinery operator in US following acquistion of Andeavor, October 1, 2018
    • marketing (Speedway, LLC)
    • transportation
    • crude oil and natural gas pipelines
    • 20% interest in MPLX, a master limited partnership
  • Marathon Oil
    • MRO
    • E&P
    • owns 277,000 net acres in the Bakken formation according to linked source
    • also tracked here with focus on the Bakken

New Metrics Starting To Trickle Out -- WIP -- Energent -- October 21, 2019

From an Energent "white paper":
The time it takes for an oil and gas company to drill, complete and put a well on production is not a metric the industry or investors have traditionally focused on. However, cycle time, meaning “time to market”, has a major impact on operator cash flow and overall profitability.
A critical component of cycle time is work-in-process (WIP).
WIP is the set of wells that have been spud but have not been put on production including all wells being worked on or waiting for next operation. Almost all operators track WIP, but few know how much WIP there should be and even fewer operators are actively controlling WIP.
Another metric not well tracked by the industry: DUCs. DUCs are tracked by some but no has really figured out how to "quantify" them.

And finally, a third metric, the number of wells "off line" or "inactive" for operational reasons, generally while neighboring wells are being fracked. In the "old days" a neighboring frack might affect one older producing well. These days, a neighboring frack will easily take six neighboring wells off line for one to three months. On top of that, we are seeing fewer and fewer "single" wells being fracked. Now, due to pad drilling, we see six wells being fracked in rapid succession.

The newly fracked wells are producing upward was six times or more what we used to see with the Bakken wells drilled ten years ago.

And, finally if that's not enough, the older, neighboring wells are positively affected by new neighboring fracking (advantaged oil) and even if not significantly affected positively, they are "never" affected negatively in the Bakken.

Ten Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today, Weekend -- October 21, 2019

Ten wells coming off the confidential list today -- Monday, October 21, 2019: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter:
  • 36324, 198, BR, CCU Burner 1A TFH, Corral Creek, t8/19; cum 3K over 5 days;
  • 33786, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lloyd 6-27-34-157N-100W MBH, Marmon, no production data, 
Sunday, October 20, 2019: 68 for the month; 68 for the quarter:
  • 35210, 1,512, Whiting, Moline 21-14-1TFH, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 71K 8/19;
Saturday, October 19, 2019: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter:
  • 36019, SI/NC, WPX, Bison 27-34HX, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 35396, 391, Hess, RS-Aadnes-157-91-2829H-2, Ross, t9/19; cum --;
  • 34973, 1,343, CLR, Rader 5-24H1, Avoca, t7/19; cum 39K in 56 days;
  • 34944, 1,604, Whiting, Moline 44-10-1H, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 80K 8/19;
  • 33785, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 2-22-15-157N-100W MBH, Marmon, no production data,
  • 33025, IA/n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 10-17H1, Elm Tree, producing;1,304 bbls over five days in 4/19; and then shut in;
  • 31968, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-17D-7-4H, Charlson, no production data,
Active rigs:

$53.7010/21/201910/21/201810/21/201710/21/201610/21/2015
Active Rigs6271543468

RBN Energy: new crude pipeline capacity out of the Cushing hub, part 2.
Every so often, there’s talk that the crude oil hub in Cushing, OK, isn’t as important as it used to be. Don’t believe it. Want proof that Cushing is alive and well? Consider the growing list of pipeline projects into and out of the hub that have been coming online or advancing to final investment decisions, as well as the efforts to push Cushing’s storage capacity toward the 100-MMbbl mark. Midstream companies have committed to building more than 800 Mb/d of new pipeline capacity from Cushing to other hubs and to refineries, and another 1.6 MMb/d of capacity is in the pre-FID development stage. Today, we conclude a mini-series on recent developments at the Oklahoma oil hub with a look at storage expansions, new Cushing players, and outbound pipeline projects.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Random Update Of 2019 Permits -- CLR's Polk Federal Wells Have Now Gone From DRL To DUC Status -- October 20, 2019

The CLR Polk Federal permits in Banks oil field have now moved from DRL status to SI/NC status.

These include the six permits, #36201 - #36206, inclusive.

For newbies, these permits were issued on March 15, 2019, and now, before the year is out, these wells have been drilled to total depth, awaiting to be fracked.

Re-Posting? Can't Remember -- Williston, ND -- #3 In The US -- Millionaires Per Capita -- 2018

From May, 2019, Kiplinger magazine:

These are the 25 smallest cities and towns boasting the highest concentrations of millionaire households in the U.S.
  • Dickinson, ND: #24
  • Spirit Lake, IA: #20 
  • Fredericksburg, TX: #16
  • Williston, ND: #3

Random Update Of 2019 Permits -- A WPX Ruby Well In Antelope-Sanish -- October 20, 2019

This well is SI/NC (a DUC) but initial production suggests this will be a huge well. Neighboring wells remain off line.  

The well:
  • 36089, SI/NC, WPX, Ruby 31-30HEL, Antelope-Sanish, fracked 6/6/19 - 6/14/19; 4.7 million gallons of water (a very small frack); 83.8% by mass; sand, 15.3% by mass, t--; cum --; 
Early production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20192630393304791795836836301062674
SANISH7-2019172061721014716424989022185
SANISH6-20192164816560287860186

From the well file:
  • spud, April 11, 2019 (sic -- double checked)
  • surface casing already set; measured depth of 21,094 feet reached April 23, 2019 (sic -- double checked)
  • the entire well bore was drilled within the middle Bakken
  • the curve section was begun on February 21, 2019 (sic -- double checked -- this is probably an error; probably should have been April 13 or thereabouts), and was completed on April 14, 2019 (sic)
  • drilling of the lateral began on April 19, 2019, and completed at 21,094' MD on April 23, 2019; 
  • one can see the error in dates in this screenshot from the file report:

Random Update Of 2019 Permits -- Kraken Bigfoot Wells In The Sanish Oil Field -- October 20, 2019

These Kraken wells in the Sanish are all on confidential status, but they will be big wells, #36010 - #36013. These are conf status but based on their names, it appears they will run south to north, even though they are located farther south in section 26. One almost wonders if they will be extended long laterals, three miles long, three sections (section 23, 14, and 11)?
  • 36010, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191619310
7-2019633513
  • 36011, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 2TFH:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201974324005
7-2019686114
  • 36012, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20194809927591
7-20192123943
  • 36013, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193675021478
7-20191478430

************************* 
Neighboring Wells

Status of wells likely neighboring the wells above:
  • 22851, a Whiting Estvold well, off line;
  • 22853, Kraken, Isaac, off line;
  • 22563, Kraken, Hukkanen, off line;
  • 16935, Kraken, Fladelnad, not off line;
  • 22429, Kraken, Reynold, off line;
  • 17812, Kraken, Anderson, off line;
  • 21381, Kraken, Dinwoodie, off line;
  • 28025, Kraken, Donnie, not off line;
  • 28026, Kraken, Lonnie, not off line;
  • 21280, Kraken, Arnold, not off line; 
  • 16750, Sinclair, Uran, off line;
  • 31470, Sinclair, Uran, recently fracked; big well;
  • 30612, Sinclair, Uran, off line

Random Update Of 2019 Permits -- Three MRO DUCs With Huge Initial Production In Chimney Butte -- October 20, 2019

These three MRO wells in Chimney Butte are still SI/NC but are reporting huge production numbers.

Fracfocus will show that these have been fracked.
  • 36118, SI/NC, MRO, Brewster 24-23TFH, Chimney Butte, fracked 7/2/19 - 7/13/19, 8.4 million gallons of water; moderate frack; 97.6% water by mass; sand, 8.3%by mass, t--; cum --; producing: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192750893507836998546202495437149
BAKKEN7-2019224005993150300
  • 36119, SI/NC, MRO, Bugbee 24-23H, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --; producing: extrapolates to 53,206 bbls/30 day month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192442565425275442030822348924015
BAKKEN7-2019125403541210105
  • 36120, SI/NC, MRO, Tufte 24-23TFH, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --; producing:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192028022278295110425607306020234

Neighboring wells:
  • 17176, off line
  • 27567, off line
  • 26015, off line
  • 26016, off line
  • 26017, off line
  • 18993, off line
  • 18060, off line but probably off line for other reasons;

Another "Second Time 'Round" Well; BR's Jerome Well In North Fork -- October 20, 2019

This well was first drilled back in 2009. Since then is has exhibited two periods in which production jumped. Most recently, BR fracked the incredible Merton wells in North Fork.

The well:
  • 17291, 756, BR, Jerome 1-15H, North Fork, t2/09; cum 302K 8/19;
Recent production, periods of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201925537654346536703506973
BAKKEN7-20192787418580987010564110496
BAKKEN6-20192810489106201195210959010889
BAKKEN5-20192811925120481163814094107353289
BAKKEN4-20191995889457812714148141010
BAKKEN3-201948138953908103901029
BAKKEN2-2019910182200
BAKKEN1-201924343835392416125001190
BAKKEN12-201823362739352392337403317
BAKKEN11-201825395536002553111001048
BAKKEN10-20187166716188701700
BAKKEN9-2018150003700
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20181300200
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20181011941196355156715420
BAKKEN2-20181431833126912395939240
BAKKEN1-20188163415991171200519850
BAKKEN12-2017328224602172130
BAKKEN11-2017231822302052000
BAKKEN10-201781088963654129212720
BAKKEN9-2017664092516706550
BAKKEN8-201727390741121978520151340
BAKKEN7-201731564754512195765475770
BAKKEN6-201726456045931242548054150
BAKKEN5-20173082097922235711147110730
BAKKEN4-20171219225114120
BAKKEN3-20173081338695508211944118700
BAKKEN2-2017271125010848648816216161490
BAKKEN1-20171651475406439034433192211
BAKKEN12-20162984058810535690087946995
BAKKEN11-2016301344712915877820039157354230
BAKKEN10-2016291266712617776614568014496
BAKKEN9-201629101949913627912098012029
BAKKEN8-201620687771214971894218893
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20162188513654268780826

MRO Re-Fracking An Old Well; Will Frack Three Additional Wells On Same Pad -- October 20, 2019

The well:
  • 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; cum 192K 6/19; had declined to 1,000 bbls/month
  • Sundry form, August 1, 2019:
    • MRO is planning to sidetrack and refrack this well. Originally an open hole completion in 2007 ... an original TD of 19,917 feet MD ... MRO plans to .... extend the lateral ... plans a 40-stage plug and perf style completion, completing the well with three additional infill wells from the same pad are drilled and completed. These wells are scheduled to be drilled in August and completed in October, 2018.
The other three wells on the pad:
  • 36737, drl,
  • 36736, drl,
  • 26735, drl,
Neighboring well to the east:
  • 16993, 125, MRO, Buehner 44-12H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 229K 7/19; off line as of 7/19;
Three more wells slightly farther east:
  • 33535, 6,204, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, t1/18; cum 350K 8/19; 61,186 bbls in first 21 days extrapolates to 87K bbls/month;
  • 33534, 5,113, MRO, Bronett 14-7H, Bailey, t1/18; cum 301K 8/19;
  • 33400, 3,017, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, t2/18; cum 304K 8/19;
Then, another single well farther east:
  • 17797, 499, MRO, Lazy De 24-7H, Bailey, t8/09; cum 421K 8/19;
And finally, to the far east in this drilling unit:
  • 33401, 3,161, MRO, Kenneth 24-7TFH, Bailey, t1/18; cum 264K 8/19; off line 8/19;
  • 33402, 3,040, MRO, Bethol 34-7H, Bailey, t2/18; cum 282K 8/19;
  • 33403, 3,484, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, t2/18; cum 326K 8/19;

Five Wells Off Line While Neighboring Well Fracked -- MRO -- Chimney Butte -- October 20, 2019

The well:
  • 36266, SI/NC, MRO, Dasha USA 44-11H, producing, fracked 7/14/19 - 7/29/19: 8.9 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 89.7% water by mass; sand, 9.95 by mass;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192235460351935055139792037386

Neighboring wells, off line:
  • 16180,
  • 16908,
  • 28415,
  • 28416,
  • 16811,
Other wells on that three well pad:
  • 36265, SI/NC, MRO, Dorothy 14-2TFH, producing, 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192960950604926518464187060069
  • 36108, SI/NC, MRO, Sarah 24-12TFH, producing,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201924458394519151249489566045605

Neighboring well to the south fracked about the same time:
  • 36167, 5,361, MRO, Ruth 44-23TFH, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 55K after 32 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192954389539826935546384042729
BAKKEN7-2019353347914053740338

Neighboring well to the south fracked about the same time:
  • 36167, 2,662, MRO, Meredith 14-24H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 47K after 26 days; 47K extrapolates to 62K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192347229468504920943623040433
BAKKEN7-20193206185367000