Monday, August 19, 2019

Five New Permits -- August 19, 2019

Peak fuel: Australia now the world's third largest fossil fuel exporter.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6259533274

Five new permits, #36865 - #36869, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Long Creek (Williams County)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for five new wells in their recently announced Long Creek Unit project: five Truman LCU permits in section 14-153-99;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --; neighboring, #17658, s short lateral; off line most of 6/19;
  • 34396, 3,810, WPX, Lion 18-19HW, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34960, 3,084, WPX, Lion 18-19HEL, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34397, 3,387, WPX, Lion 18-19HA, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34400, 2,397, WPX, Lion 18-19HY, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34399, 2,684, WPX, Lion 18-19HB, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;

Random Update: CLR's Increased Density Project In Camp Oil Field -- August 19, 2019

See this post.

The Sports Page

Wow! They're reading the blog.

 I posted the story three days ago!

Today, over at the Drudge Report:

Enquiring Minds Are Asking? When Will The 2019 USGS Survey Of The Bakken Be Released? -- August 19, 2019

History of USGS surveys of the Bakken at this site.

Later: see first comment. 

The Apple Page
iPad Pro

I was talking to a chief operations officer / IT officer for a Fortune 500 company over the weekend. He had grown up with non-Apple products and had built his own computers while in college. He never cared for Apple all those years. He certainly was not, and is not a fan boy.

For work he carries a very, very thin Dell notebook/laptop and works with other non-Apple products at the office. But within the last 60 days he bought a iPad Pro (with keyboard and blue-tooth pencil) and says that the iPad Pro is the closest thing he has seen that beats any other "computer." It's interesting: he doesn't even call the iPad Pro a computer. It's gone beyond. After much research, he even thinks the iPad Pro is better than the Surface.

That's says a lot, coming from a diehard-non-Apple user.

I haven't looked at an iPad Pro in a long time. So let's look:
  • wow, this is interesting -- thinking differently -- the site scrolls left-to-right, not down -- very, very interesting ...
  • all-screen design
    • 11" and 12.9"
    • liquid retina display, edge-to-edge
  • Face ID
  • A12X Bionic chip: most powerful chip Apple has ever made
  • Neural Engine: runs 5 trillion operations per second
    • translation: faster than most PC laptops
    • graphics: 2x faster
  • the new Apple Pencil
  • and then this -- this is quite remarkable -- a(n) USB-C slot
  • two cameras equipped with Smart HDR:
    • a 12MP camera for photos, 4K video, AR
    • a TrueDepth camera for Portrait selfies, FaceTime, Animoji, Memoji
  • "just" over a pound in weight
  • ten hours of battery life
  • holy mackerel: look at the price
    • both base models come in under $1,000
      • the 11-inch display: $799
      • the almost 13-inch display: $999
    • for the 13-inch display:
      • 64 GB: $999
      • 256 GB: $1,149
      • 512 GB: $1,349
      • 1 TB: $1,749
  • The pencil: $129
  • The keyboard: $199
  • Total for the one I would get if getting one:
    • $1,477 x 1.08 = $1,595.16
    • / 12 months = $135/month 
The Apple Page
Apple Watch

Apple plans to launch new ceramic and titanium Apple Watch models as early as next month. The firmware assets clearly reference a 44mm titanium case and a 44mm ceramic case. 
Comments? mostly snarky.

Most ridiculous: folks comparing smart watches with a Rolex. That might have been important for Epstein. In the end, his Rolex outlasted him.

The Bakken: A Swing Producer? A Look At Completion Rates -- August 19, 2019

If I find the link again I will post it, but it doesn't interest me enough to go looking for it, but it's being reported (IIRC) that the number of completions in the Permian decreased by 12% in July, 2019.

I used to track completion data in the Bakken, but not so much any more. The completion rate seemed fairly stable, but I was curious.

In the most recent Director's Cut (June, 2019, data): the completion activity as reported by the NDIC:
  • June, 2019: 95 (preliminary)
  • May, 2019: 113 (revised)
  • April, 2019: 101 (final)
Percentage change in completions:
  • From April: a 6% drop in June
  • month-over-month, from May: a whopping 16% drop
Completion rates will vary due to weather, workforce, and price of oil, according to the NDIC. I also think it will vary according to companies meeting their quota requirements (contracts). June was the last month of the second half, and I'm convinced that operators had met their quota requirements by early June. 

The Bakken: Swing Producer -- August 19, 2019

Number of DUCs in the Bakken at an all-time high; 983 in more recent month data available (June, 2019); 985 the previous month; jumped from 962 in April, 2019, to 985 in May, 2019. Swing producer?

This data is tracked at this site.

Disclaimer: this is my data. It may different from official data posted by the NDIC. My data comes from the NDIC reports but I often make typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The time required for a DUC to bring new oil on line is measured in days, not weeks. If that's a bit of hyperbole, and I don't think it is, then the time required for a DUC to bring new oil on line is measured in weeks, not months.

Mexico: Keeping North Dakota Great -- August 19, 2019

RBN Energy: unit trains now delivering US propane to Mexico. Archived.
In May 2019, Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing shipped a 100-car train filled with propane from North Dakota to Mexico, marking the first-ever single-commodity train — i.e. “unit train” — between the Bakken and the U.S.’s southern neighbor. As it turns out, it was also the first of what appears to be a regularly scheduled run to Mexico. Since May, three more unit trains have made the journey south from the Bakken’s first unit train terminal for propane. Rail shipments of propane to Mexico as part of mixed-goods trains aren’t new, but figuring out how to economically ship large quantities of propane via unit trains has long evaded NGL marketers and producers — that is, until now. What are the economics and other factors that finally made it possible, and what are the prospects and challenges ahead for unit-train exports to Mexico? Today, we look at how the first all-propane train to Mexico came to pass and what the outlook might be for these shipments to continue.

Eleven Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Weekend, Today -- Monday, August 19, 2019

Not on my radar scope: if one just read the mainstream media, one would never know -- this caught me by surprise -- US petroleum demand strongest since 2007. Just the other day, the US SecEnergy said the oil and gas industry kept the US out of a recession ... don't know if the sector will delay the next "recession that is right around the corner," but if delayed, it will be because of the US oil and gas sector. Even on twitter, the so-called experts are mostly talking gloom-and-doom. It gets tedious. From Rigzone staff, data points:
  • year-to-day, July, 2019: total US petroleum demand average its strongest level since 2007
  • total petroleum demand: 20.8 million bopd
  • 0.9 percent year-on-year increase
  • highest demand for the month of July since 2005
  • July, 2007: 20.4 million bopd
  • US oil supply and NGLs remained near record levels in July at 12 million bopd and 4 million bpd, respectively
  • US oil production: 12.2 million bpd
  • US crude oil exports: a new all-time high of 3.3 million bpd
Canada: needs more export outlets. From Rigzone, data points:
  • Canada, 4th largest oil producer in the world: 5.2 million bopd in 2018
  • represents a 65% gain over the last decade (Hubbert peak oil theory?)
  • Alberta: 80%
  • Saskatchewan: 10%
  • for first time since 2010, oil sands (crude bitumen) exceeded conventional supply
  • oil sands accounts for 65% of Canadian production
  • exports 80% of the oil it produces, most of it goes to the US
  • and again, a reminder how Obama killing the Keystone changed everything: 
Over the past decade, U.S. oil imports from Canada have risen almost 75 percent. In fact, Canadian oil is critical for the U.S. because the country’s refining system is configured to process these heavier grades. In 2018, for instance, Canada accounted for half of total U.S. crude oil imports and nearly a quarter of U.S. refinery crude oil intake.
Water: remember that pop quiz some time ago, in which we asked which "uses" more water -- conventional vertical wells or tight, horizontal, fracked wells. Here it is again, from oilprice: conventional wells use 10-times the amount of water that fracked wells use. Again, those stories about all the water fracked wells needed turned out to be fake stories meant to destroy the US shale revolution. Readers were never duped by these stories; they knew that US golf courses used much more water than the fracking industry. and in the Bakken, the amount of water taken from Lake Sakakawea was inconsequential. In fact, during much of the Bakken boom, the Missouri River often flooded the oil fields. Whatever.

Pop quiz: by the way, I never did answer the rock-and-roll pop quiz of a few days ago. I'll do that later today.
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today -- Monday, August 19, 2019: 44 for the month; 91 for the quarter:
  • 34156, 1,995, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, Banks, t3/19; cum 115K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Sunday, August 18, 2019: 43 for the month; 90 for the quarter:
  • 3593, SI/NC,XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13C, North Fork, no production data;
  • 35602, SI/NC,XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32D, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35538, 1,833, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t2/19; cum 117K 4/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 35349, SI/NC, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-5, Alger, no production data, 
  • 34791, SI/NC, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15H, Spotted Horn, no production data,  
  • 34764, SI/NC, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH, Killdeer, no production data,  
  • 32400, SI/NC, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 2-34-35H, Big Bend, no production data,  
Saturday, August 17, 2019: 36 for the month; 83 for the quarter:
  • 34790, SI/NC, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,  
  • 32467, SI/NC, BR, CCU Boxcar 8-8-22MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,  
  • 26804 (no typo -- it's really that old), SI/NC, XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32H, Siverston, no production data,  
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6159533274

RBN Energy: unit trains now delivering US propane to Mexico. Archived.
In May 2019, Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing shipped a 100-car train filled with propane from North Dakota to Mexico, marking the first-ever single-commodity train — i.e. “unit train” — between the Bakken and the U.S.’s southern neighbor. As it turns out, it was also the first of what appears to be a regularly scheduled run to Mexico.
Since May, three more unit trains have made the journey south from the Bakken’s first unit train terminal for propane.
Rail shipments of propane to Mexico as part of mixed-goods trains aren’t new, but figuring out how to economically ship large quantities of propane via unit trains has long evaded NGL marketers and producers — that is, until now. What are the economics and other factors that finally made it possible, and what are the prospects and challenges ahead for unit-train exports to Mexico? Today, we look at how the first all-propane train to Mexico came to pass and what the outlook might be for these shipments to continue.
Note, tag, LPG_By_Rail
Propane is LPG but not all LPG (LP) is propane. ... Propane is classified as LPG (LP), along with butane, isobutane and mixtures of these gases. LPG comes from natural gas processing and oil refining. LPG is frequently used for fuel in heating, cooking, hot water and vehicles.
California LPG: reposting. From March 30, 2017 --
California's production of propane and butane continues to decrease; the decrease in production is offset by an increase in rail shipments. This is an interesting story for the archives with regard to many, many story lines. EIA data points:

  • many, many story lines including CBR; the state's fossil fuel regulatory environment
  • total US production of propane and butanes (liquified petroleum gases - LPG) increases to over 2 million bopd
  • increased in all regions of the country except for the West Coast
  • unlike other regions, West Coast LPG production has been decreasing since 2010, driven by declining refinery production
  • production in the region totaled 80,000 bopd in 2016, 10,000 less than in 2010
  • as a result, rail shipments have become a growing means of transporting LPG to the region
  • the amount of LPG production in the US has surged (except along the West Coast)
  • West Coast import/export data: the increased ability to transport LPG by rail has allowed Western Canadian producers, who can no longer ship LPG by pipeline to the Midwest following the repurposing and reversal of a key pipeline, to ship more LPG to the West Coast, where it can then be exported to overseas markets
  • the West Coast has only one major LPG export terminal; it accounts for nearly all overseas LPG exports
  • as LPG exports continue to increase, two other terminals on the West Coast have been proposed, but the permitting phase of development is not finished yet

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Update On Lake Mead -- August 18, 2019

Lake Mead, link here.

Lake Mead's level is higher than what it was at this time in both 2017 and 2018.

From azcentral:
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will be required to take less water from the Colorado River for the first time next year under a set of agreements that aim to keep enough water in Lake Mead to reduce the risk of a crash.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation activated the mandatory reductions in water deliveries on Thursday when it released projections showing that as of Jan. 1, the level of Lake Mead will sit just below a threshold that triggers the cuts.

The Colorado River’s reservoirs have dropped dramatically since 2000 during one of the most extreme droughts in centuries. Farms and cities across the Southwest have long been taking more from the river than what flows into it, and climate change is adding to the strains by pushing up temperatures.
Reservoirs were approaching levels last year that would have triggered a shortage and required deeper cuts, but heavy snow across much of the Rocky Mountains this winter boosted runoff and raised reservoir levels.
The river’s reservoirs are now at 55% of total capacity, up from 49% at the same time last year.
" ... and climate change is adding to the strains by pushing up temperatures." Oh, give me a break. 

Aviation Pros Reviews Williston's New Airport -- August 18, 2019

This is a really, really cool story -- from AviationPros -- regarding the new Williston airport. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first new greenfield international airport built in the western hemisphere in the past decade. Archived.

I did not know this: this airport is 10x the size of the airport it replaced. This is a huge, huge deal for Williston.

I thought I tracked XWA at one site but couldn't find it. For past posts on XWA, click here.

Earthquake Swarm In Kansas -- August 18, 2019

Earthquake swam in Kansas, Reno County.
A county in central Kansas experienced a pretty shocking uptick in seismic activity this week — 11 earthquakes in five days. It started with a magnitude-2.4 earthquake Wednesday morning just 2 1/2 miles southwest of Hutchinson, Kansas, in Reno County, according to the United States Geological Survey. There would be 10 more before the week was out.  
Unlikely that anyone felt a 2.4 magnitude but several subsequent earthquakes hit 4.0 or more.

Oil and gas activity in Kansas.

With all the wind farms in and around Hutchinson, KS, and knowing how deep the foundations for these turbines go, one wonders if wind farm activity is causing these earthquakes. LOL.

All Pipelines Lead To Patoka -- Illinois, That Is -- August 18, 2019

Wow, I love to blog.

Readers are so helpful.

A recent comment from a reader:
Capline is the big story. Helps everyone north of Cushing (Bakken, PRB/Nio, tar sands). Don't sleep on this. It's hyooge! 
The reader is exactly right. RBN Energy recently devoted a blog to the Capline. The RBN post will soon go behind a paywall. Archived.

Here's the graphic:

Another reader did not "understand" the Memphis connection. Of course, neither did I. But RBN Energy  did a full blog on that one, also.
Over the past few years, rising production in the Canadian oil sands and U.S. shale plays such as the Bakken, Permian and Eagle Ford has given refiners new options for sourcing their crude, causing changes in oil pipeline utilization and prompting the development of new pipelines — or the reversal of existing pipes.
A prime example of all this is playing out in Memphis, TN, where a Valero Energy refinery will be shifting from mostly U.S. Gulf Coast-sourced light crude to light crude that will flow in on the new Diamond Pipeline from the Cushing, OK, crude storage hub.
Valero’s change in crude sourcing will be yet another blow to the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline, which for decades has moved crude north from the Gulf Coast to Patoka, IL, and other points along the way, including western Tennessee.
Today [this was back in October 26, 2017], we look at the thinking and economics behind Valero’s plan and at the latest news on Capline.
We’ve looked at Capline and Diamond many times before here in the RBN blogosphere.
More than five years ago, we noted in the opening line of Draggin’ the Capline that “Crude oil wants to flow south to the U.S. Gulf” and that the utilization of the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline from the St. James, LA, crude oil hub to the Patoka hub (which is connected to more than 2 MMb/d of Midwest refining capacity) had fallen to only 14%.
This decline was largely because Midwest refineries had gained access to the increasing volume of crude available from western Canada and the Bakken. This low rate of Capline utilization raised questions about whether the pipeline’s flow should be reversed to help move Bakken and western Canadian crude south. (Capline is co-owned by Plains All American, with a ~54% stake; Marathon Petroleum, with ~33%; and BP, with ~13%.)
A couple of years later we discussed the plan by a joint venture of Plains All American and Valero Energy to build the 200-Mb/d Diamond Pipeline to transport crude from Plains’ Cushing storage terminal to Valero’s 195-Mb/d refinery in Memphis. When Diamond is completed later this year (2017), the crude flows from Cushing into Memphis are expected to largely displace crude that is now transported to the refinery from St. James via Capline and Valero Energy Partners’ Collierville Pipeline, a 52-mile-long, 210-Mb/d pipeline lateral from Capline (at Collierville, MS) to the Memphis refinery.
In other words, Diamond’s startup will put another nail in the coffin for a northbound-flowing Capline — a matter we discussed [previously].
The "thing" I take away from all this: the states (e.g., Minnesota, New York) that resist pipelines will find themselves behind the proverbial 8-ball in 2030. There will be winners and losers in Saudi American, but it's pretty much guaranteed that states that fight the energy revolution will be on the losing side. 

Patoka. Who would've guessed? The new Cushing? Probably not, but ...

The Sports Page -- August 18, 2019

If I'm reading the leaderboard / PGA Fedex standings correctly, Tiger Woods actually has a chance to make the Fedex Tour Championship. He is currently tied at 31st in the BMW tournament, at 8 under par after the 12th hole.

However, on the Fedex standings, he is currently running 40th and only the top 30 make the Tour Championship. It appears he needs to shoot a minus 12, or thereabouts, to make the top 30, Tour Championship.

So, chance to make the Tour Championship? About nil.

Next week, at the Tour Championship, the PGA Fedex leader will start the course with minus ten points; #2 will start the tournament with a minus 8 points --
  • #1: - 10 points
  • #2: - 8 points
  • #3: -7 points
  • #4: - 6 points
  • #5: -5 points, and 
  • then all the way to the 30th players starting at "even." 
I may not see the end of the tournament; family commitments begin at 2:45 p.m. Central Time. 

Keeping The Viewer Tuned In

It's so much fun watching any PGA Tournament in which Tiger Woods is playing. No matter how badly he's playing, the color announcers never let the viewer give up hope that Tiger will "win." At the 17th hole, if he's ten strokes back, the color announcers will tell viewers that it's still possible for Tiger to win.

It seems 90% of PGA TV coverage is of Tiger if he's playing.

And then you look at everyone else. No comparison. With Tiger.

Just When You Thought It Couldn"t Get Any Worse -- Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin -- August 18, 2019

I can't get my head around understanding energy consumption required by "Bitcoin."

To put the following data in perspective, from google:
For Great Britain. Energy use in the United Kingdom stood at 2,249 TWh (193.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2014. 
For Great Britain, total final consumption of electricity was broadly stable in 2018 compared to 2017, up 0.1 per cent. Renewable electricity generation was a record 111.1 TWh in 2018, an increase of 11.8 per cent on a year earlier. -- March 28, 2019
Luxembourg imports most of its energy. Luxembourg is the EU country with the second smallest forecast of renewables in 2020. Luxembourg has one of the highest emissions of carbon dioxide per person in Europe. According to IEA, the electricity use (gross production + imports – exports – transmission/distribution losses) in Luxembourg in 2008 was 7.7 TWh and population 0.49 million people.
Luxembourg was dependent on imported energy in 2008. Own production was 2% of primary energy in 2008. In 2008, electricity use per person in Luxembourg was 2.6 times greater than in the United Kingdom.
So, now that I have kind of a range of electricity consumption in two European/British economies, I can move on.

This site monitors "Bitcoin" energy consumption. As usual, numbers may be rounded.

Global "bitcoin":
  • estimated TWh per year: 75 TWh 
  • minimum TWh per year: 45 TWh
  • Number of us households powered for one day by the electricity consumed for a single transaction: 20 households
  • carbon footprint per transaction (kg of CO2): 300. Conversion: 300 kg = 0.3 metric tons
  • there are 300,000 Bitcoin transactions per day
  • most of the global Bitcoin mining facilities are in China
  • China's electricity sector relies heavily on coal-based power
  • coal is fueling bitcoin
Bitcoin cannot use renewable energy as sole source of energy:
While renewables are an intermittent source of energy, Bitcoin miners have a constant energy requirement. A Bitcoin ASIC miner will, once turned on, not be switched off until it either breaks down or becomes unable to mine Bitcoin at a profit. Because of this, Bitcoin miners increase both the baseload demand on a grid, as well as the need for alternative (fossil-fuel based) energy sources to meet this demand when renewable energy production is low.
In the worst case scenario, the presence of Bitcoin miners may thus provide an incentive for the construction of new coal-based power plants, or reopening existing ones. This impact would be even harder to quantify.
Obviously comparing apples to oranges, but I find this chart quite stunning. This is the energy requirements for one Bitcoin transaction compared with energy transactions for 100,000 credit card transactions.

Meanwhile, folks are worried about flaring as an environmental concern.

Early Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 18, 2019

35629, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, Little Knife:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34714, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 2T, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34713, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 3B, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34172, conf, CLR, Ravin 4-1H, Dimmick Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34034, conf, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, FLX3 21-16 163-91 D, Portal:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32951, conf, BR, State Dodge 2B MBH, Dimmick Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35089, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, NM 158-92-18-19-1MBH, Cottonwood:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34873, conf, CLR, Ravin Federal 2-1HSL, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34180, conf, CLR, Ravin 12-1H2, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34179, conf, CLR, Ravin 11-1H, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34178, conf, CLR, Ravin 10-1H1, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34154, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 12BX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34153, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 11TX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
34156, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
35538, conf, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 18, 2019

Monday, August 26, 2019: 73 for the month; 120 for the quarter:
34758, conf, MRO, Tercek 14-24H,
34639, conf, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 12-31-30TF2H,

Sunday, August 25, 2019: 73 for the month; 120 for the quarter:
35975, conf, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-4H, 
35629, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, 
34714, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 2T
34713, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 3B,
34301, conf, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23H, 
34172, conf, CLR, Ravin 4-1H, 
34034, conf, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, FLX3 21-16 163-91 D,

Saturday, August 24, 2019: 66 for the month; 113 for the quarter:
35041, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-8,
24019, conf, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 6-31-30TFH,

Friday, August 23, 2019: 64 for the month; 111 for the quarter:
35978, conf, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-2H, 
35601, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32F, 
35042, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-9, 
32951, conf, BR, State Dodge 2B MBH,

Thursday, August 22, 2019: 60 for the month; 107 for the quarter:
35935, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13H,

Wednedsay, August 21, 2019: 59 for the month; 106 for the quarter:
35089, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, NM 158-92-18-19-1MBH, 
35043, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-10, 
34763, conf, MRO, Danner 14-36H, 
34558, conf, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23DXA,
26803, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32C,

Tuesday, August 20, 2019: 54 for the month; 101 for the quarter:
35936, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13AXD, 
34873, conf, CLR, Ravin Federal 2-1HSL, 
34792, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HY, 
34180, conf, CLR, Ravin 12-1H2
34179, conf, CLR, Ravin 11-1H, 
34178, conf, CLR, Ravin 10-1H1
34154, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 12BX, 
34153, conf, Oasis, nelson 5298 14-26 11TX
32398, conf, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 5-34-35MLH,
26802, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32G,

Monday, August 19, 2019: 44 for the month; 91 for the quarter:
34156, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, 

Sunday, August 18, 2019: 43 for the month; 90 for the quarter:
35937, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13C, 
35602, conf, XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32D, 
35538, conf, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1
35349, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-5, 
34791, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15H, 
34764, conf, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH
32400, conf, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 2-34-35H, 

Saturday, August 17, 2019: 36 for the month; 83 for the quarter:
34790, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HZ,
32467, conf, BR, CCU Boxcar 8-8-22MBH,
26804 (no typo), conf, XTO, ColeFederal 44X-32H, 

Squaw Creek Getting Active -- August 18, 2019

Squaw Creek is getting active. Updates here including a new graphic. Squaw Creek is tracked here. The Rachel Wolf / Wolf wells are tracked here.

Ovals represent new activity since last graphic, April 20, 2018, last year. 

The well:
  • 20238, 180, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35H, Squaw Creek, t1/12; cum 203K 6/19;
Back of the envelope:
  • 20 days at 5,561 extrapolates to 8,342 bbls. And 1,300 to 8,000 represents another 5-fold jump in production. And its flaring. Another well that would be shut in if flaring were banned. Let's see:
    • 5,561 bbls * $40 = $225,0000
    • 7,824,000 cubic feet at $1.77 / mcf = $15,000
    • the crude oil / natural gas price ratio = 25:1
    • price data from the August, 2019 (June, 2019 data) Director's Cut
  • EUR type curve? probably jumped from 375K to 750K after the new production data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Follow-Up On A Nice WPX Wolf Well In Squaw Creek -- August 18, 2019

The well:
  • 19973, 141, WPX, Wolf 27-34H, Squaw Creek, t7/11; cum 265K 2/18; -- that was back on 2/18 -- cum of 265K; now, cum 346K 6/19;
Production back in 2018 when neighboring wells were fracked:

This page won't be updated. The Wolf / Rachel Wolf wells are tracked here.

Getting Started -- Sunday, August 18, 2019

Sunday comics: Don't miss the comics today.

Darwin: this is pretty cool. I mentioned the "Gelernter book" (Darwin) back on August 3, 2019. I see there's a review of sorts over at Powerline.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

The Question We Are All Asking In NASCAR Country -- August 17, 2019

What do the Clintons have against the Dale Earnhardt, Jr, family?

Link here.

God bless the Earnhardts. 

Another Question

Will the subject of China or tariffs come up tonight?

Making North Dakota Great -- August 17, 2019

Link here, a pdf will download. New beef processing plant in Williston, data points:
  • gets a boost from the Williston STAR Fund: $72,000 grant
  • location: 6 East Dakota Parkway, Williston
  • Yellowstone River Beef
  • owners/operators: Trevor Abell, Jamie Aqidius, and Brandon Forseth of Oregon
  • purchasing Prairie Packing and converting it into an export-focused operation
  • will still provide local custom processing as well as a retail store front
Wow, this is such a great country.

President Trump opened up new overseas beef markets (EU and Asia).

Oregon has the export terminals.

Regional cattle ranchers have outlet.

This is simply so "neat" to see.

I have a particular "emotional" interest in this. My dad had more irons in the fire than anyone I knew when I was growing up in Williston. Among all his many business endeavors he talked often of a cattle feed lot along US 2 & 85 west of Williston, just before the 4-mile corner. Had he bought the land (and kept the minerals) I wouldn't be writing this almost ad-free blog. I would be living/working on a wholly-owned South Pacific Island owning/operating an internet domain targeting the fossil fuel industry.

The "Boogeyman" Returns -- August 17, 2019

Not ready for prime time. Two problems here. I am rushed for time but I want to start the conversation so I will post what I have, planning to come back to it later. But this essay is still in progress. Second, I am not a good writer, never have been. I am not as articulate as I need to be.

Note: do not parse phrases or sentences. Take the essay in its entirety; the "gestalt" as it were.


Later, 5:50 p.m. CT: this is so incredible. I proofed the essay below and then removed "In Progress" from the subject line. Then checking twitter for news about another issue, I come across a link to this Forbes article: 

Because some pipelines from the Marcellus traverse NY state on the way to other states, Governor Cuomo is essentially setting energy policy for all of New England. How does he get away with it? LOL. But it proves the point in the essay below.

The Essay

I'm looking for a better word than "boogeyman" to describe the phenomenon, but for now, I will use "boogeyman" as a placeholder.

There is no question there are bad actors at the nation-state level that would like to see the US oil industry severely constrained, if not destroyed altogether. At the top of that list would be Russia and certain state actors in the Mideast.

The success of the US shale revolution has now become an existential issue for Saudi Arabia and Iran; and possibly an existential issue for other Mideast countries, like Iraq.

If one looks at the past 20 years of the US shale story, one can start to see that mosaic of efforts to kill US shale.

The US crude oil shale revolution began in 2000 in Montana, but the real jump began in 2007 in Parshall, ND, with EOG's discovery well.

Fracking literally caught everyone by surprise. Had fracking developed slowly, I am convinced that the shale revolution never would have occurred. Had protestors been able to shut down fracking in Montana in 2001, or in North Dakota in 2007, that would have been the end of fracking. Lessons learned in the Bakken make the Permian possible. Had fracking been banned in North Dakota, those lessons would not have been learned. The Permian was a dead basin at the time. There are states that ban fracking (e.g., New York) so anyone who suggests that banning fracking across the US never would have happened carry no credibility as far as I am concerned. Does California ban fracking? I have to check again on this -- but for all intents and purposes, it is my myth (worldview) that fracking is dead in California. [In fact, I would go so far as to say that long term -- twenty years out -- the tea leaves tell me the California oil industry is dead.]

The bad actors at the nation-state level have so far been unable to stop US fracking but their efforts continue. Again, it's an existential issue for them. There are multiple ways to stop the success of the US shale sector.

Let's count the ways:
  • stop pipelines; we'll come back to this later
  • increased regulation
  • higher production/extraction taxes 
  • report every saltwater / crude oil spill as a headline story / major accident;
  • plant fake stories: 
    • decline rates will be the death knell of fracking
    • companies can't make money fracking; and, banks will quit lending
    • companies can't make money fracking; scare investors
    • density projections in the Permian fall short
    • production projections in the Permian fall short
    • fracking causes smajor earthquakes
    • fracking leads to global warming
    • methane leaks are the real problems; methane emissions, more dangerous than CO2, are not surging
    • oil industry gets huge "subsidies" from the government
    • solar and wind energy is less expensive than oil
    • global warming
    • CO2 emissions 
    • fracking and flaring: a danger to oil field workers (added August 19, 2019)
I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist but if one wants to call me one on this issue that's fine with me.

And, now, the Bakken boogeyman, flaring, as "an issue" returns.

I don't see flaring as a boogeyman.

I see flaring as an opportunity.

And yes, Virginia, there is a way to completely eliminate flaring in the Bakken. Shut down all drilling in North Dakota and Montana. 

Week 33: August 11, 2019 -- August 17, 2019

Disclaimer: IN DRAFT -- lots to clean up on this page, but wanted to get it started. If you find a broken link, let me know.

Top international non-energy story:
  • "Global recession right around the corner"
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
  • "Recession right around the corner" 
    • Inverted bond yields signal massive, deep, never-ending recession
    • 10-year Treasuries at record low yields but still positive (versus negative yields in the EU)
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
  • State ended fiscal year with more than half-billion-dollar balance
Top North Dakota energy story: 
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • Oil and natural gas set records in June; gas flaring rises due to system outages
  • NDIC involved in petrochemical plant "talk"
  • Oilfield electric demand to jump 71%
  • ND legislators to discuss how to spend Legacy Fund money
  • State ended fiscal year with more than half-billion-dollar balance
  • Former director of Wyoming's DOT named to lead ND's DOT
  • Williston area schools still working very, very tough issues
  • North Dakota on "short" list for petrochemical plant
  • "Broken" oil market prompts CLR to buyback its own shares
  • Williston airport on target to meet October opening; last lane paved
  • Alexander schools show increase in student enrollment
  • Williston STAR Fund allocates $72,000 for new beer processing plant
  • Energy secretary: US shale boom saved economy from recession
Natural gas:
Bakken economy: