Monday, May 20, 2019

We Start Out With 66 Active Rigs In North Dakota This Week -- May 20, 2019

Texas: Texas governor says it's time to turn off red-light cameras in Texas. The legislators have voted to kill the red-light cameras. Now on Governor Abbott's desk. 

WTI: $63.16. Sounds like normal-normal.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday -- Monday, May 20, 2019:
35583, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33CXD,
34753, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Williams Sadowsky 9-4-9H-142-96;

Sunday, May 19, 2019:
35584, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33BXC, Capa,
35151, conf, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2D, Lost Bridge,
34903, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-1, Truax,
34872, conf, Oasis, Dixon 5602 42-34 4B, Bonetrail,
31561, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 6-23-20TFH, Big Bend,

Saturday, May18, 2019:
35585, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33EXF, Capa,
35154, conf, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2G, Lost Bridge,
34902, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-9, Truax,

The Hess Gene / JCP wells in Truax field are tracked here

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6661512580

RBN Energy: crude exporters navigate gulg coast terminal constraints. Archived.
This blog is based on research from Morningstar Commodities. A copy of the original report is available here.
U.S. crude exports out of the Gulf Coast averaged more than 2.4 MMb/d in the first four months of 2019 — using infrastructure that is increasingly constrained by a lack of deepwater ports. U.S. crude is reaching destinations worldwide, with large volumes traveling long distances to Asia on gargantuan 2-MMbbl vessels — Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — loaded offshore by ship-to-ship transfer. Shipments to Europe are primarily on smaller Suezmax and Aframax vessels. Overall, the increased marine activity is testing the limits of existing infrastructure. Today, we analyze the past 16 months of crude export vessel movements and their impacts on Gulf Coast ports. (We’ll also be discussing this and other critical trends related to U.S. export markets live and in person.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

May 19, 2019

The Mideast: rocket lands inside the Green Zone, Baghdad ... less than a mile away from the US Embassy. Trump not happy.

WTI futures: As of close, Friday -- $62.76. Pre-market --

The Minot Grady Wells -- Nowhere Near Minot -- A Most Unusual Siting Of Wells

The graphic:

The wells in the graphic:

19881, conf, Enerplus, Hall 23-21H, Squaw Creek,

21301, 1,086, Enerplus, Pointer 149-94-23AH, Squaw Creek, t9/17; cum 230K 3/19;

36261, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek,
36260, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek,
36259, conf, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HS, Squaw Creek,

35918, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, Squaw Creek,
35917, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek,
35916, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek,
36450, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, Squaw Creek,

35301, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HY, Squaw Creek,
35300, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HC, Squaw Creek,
35299, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HT, Squaw Creek,
35298, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HD, Squaw Creek,
35297, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HZ, Squaw Creek,
35296, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HF, Squaw Creek,
35457, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HWL, Squaw Creek,

35910, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HW, Squaw Creek,
35909, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HC, Squaw Creek,
35908, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HX, Squaw Creek,
35907, conf, WPX, Beaver 22-21HB, Squaw Creek,

Could This Be One Of The Worst Weeks Ever -- Considering Number Of Likely DUCs To Be Reported? -- May 19, 2019

Wow, of 34 wells coming off confidential list over the next ten days, only two are reporting production. Wells coming off the confidential list that do not show production are generally DUCs.

34753, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Williams Sadowsky 9-4-9H-142-96, Manning,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34872, conf, Oasis, Dixon 5602 42-34 4B, Bonetrail,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Random Update Of An Older Slawson Submariner Federal Well -- May 19, 2019

Several Slawson Submariner Federal wells will be coming off confidential list this week.

The Submariner Federal wells are tracked here.

This is a random look at an older Submariner Federal well.

The well:
  • 19368, 115, Slawson, Submariner Federal 1-23-24H, Van Hook, t8/11; cum 419K 3/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The BR Merton / Jerome Wells In North Fork


May 19, 2019: look at this -- #17291 -- re-fracked 3/8/2019 - 3/10/2019, 3.6 million gallons of water, a small re-frack; the original frack back in 2009 was an open-hole frack with 1 million lbs of 20/40 sand.

May 19, 2019: this is what the area looks like now --

May 19, 2019: #30487 comes off confidential this next week --
  • 30487, conf, BR, Merton 14-10TFH ULW, 33-053-06657, North Fork, this well was fracked 3/12/2019 - 3/24/2019; 7.6 million gallons of water (FracFocus), a moderate size frack;
Original Post

In the graphic below (it looks like the "Jerome" wells run south; the "Merton" wells run north):

One completed well:
  • 17291, 756, BR, Jerome 1-15H, t2/09; cum 256K 3/19; this well off line for about two months; now back in production; might show a healthy jump in production;
A 3-well pad on confidential list:
  • 30485, conf, Jerome 14-10MBH,
  • 30486, conf, Merton 14-10MBH,
  • 30487, conf, Merton 14-10TFH ULW (suggests a 2560-acre spaced well)
A 3-well pad on confidential list:
  • 30280, 3,327, BR, Merton 21-15TFH, North Fork, t9/16; cum434K 3/19; off line as of 2/19; looks like recent jump in production, but hard to say;
  • 30281, 3,487, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, t9/16; cum 345K 3/19; off line as of 2/19 but appears to be coming back on line;
  • 30282, 2,806, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, North Fork, t9/16; cum 270K 3/19; off line as of 2/19; still off line; another huge well;
A 4-well pad on confidential list:
  • 25199, 2,928, Merton 21-15MBH 2NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 460K 3/19; another huge well, maybe a jump in production;
  • 25200, 1,776, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 419K 3/19; ditto;
  • 25201, 3,360, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, North Fork, t8/16; cum 419K 3/19; a huge well;
  • 25202, 1,536, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, North Fork, t9/16; cum 306K 3/19; another huge well;
A 4-well pad on confidential list:
  • 30221, 566, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 99K 3/19;
  • 30222, 470, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 94K 3/19;
  • 30223, 378, Jerome 41-15TFH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 103K 3/19;
  • 30547, 348, BR, Merton 41-15TFH ULW, Croff, t10/18; cum 114K 3/19;
There were four BR permits in the graphic that were canceled.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 19, 2019

Monday, May 27, 2019:
35296, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 2635HZ, 
30487, conf, BR, Merton 14-10TFH ULW,
Sunday, May 26, 2019:
35361, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-6, 

Saturday, May 25, 2019:
35298, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HD, 
35297, conf, WPX, Monot Grady 26-35HZ, 
34906, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-9,

Friday, May 24, 2019:
35360, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-5, 
35318, conf, MRO, Gartland USA 31-16H, 
35299, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HT
34905, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-8, 

Thursday, May 23, 2019:
35319, conf, MRO, Sears USA 21-16TFH
35300, conf, WPX. Minot Grady 26-35HC,
31563, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 5-23-20TFH

Wednesday, May 22, 2019:
35726, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33DXA, 
35359, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-4,
35320, conf, MRO, reyes USA 21-16H, 
35301, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HY, 
35271, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase 2MBH, 
34904, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-7, 
34294, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-95-36D-35-2H, 

Tuesday, May 21, 2019:
35582, conf,  XTO, Halverson 13X-33H, 
35269, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase 1MBH, 
35150, conf, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2H2,
31562, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 3-23-20H,
Monday, May 20, 2019:
35583, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33CXD,
34753, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Williams Sadowsky 9-4-9H-142-96;

Sunday, May 19, 2019:
35584, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33BXC, 
35151, conf, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2D, 
34903, conf, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-1, 
34872, conf, Oasis, Dixon 5602 42-34 4B,
31561, conf, Slawson, Submariner Federal 6-23-20TFH

Saturday, May18, 2019:
35585, conf, XTO, Halverson 13X-33EXF, 
35154, conf, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2G, 
34902, conf, Hess, SC-Gener-154-98-0805H-9,

Non-Bakken Featured Blogs Linked At The Sidebar

Non-Bakken featured blogs linked at the side bar at the right.

Zero Hedge

Link here. At this link, click on the magnifying glass to zoom in. It will be interesting to see how this plays out ten years from now. My hunch is that there may be many more apps but most will not make good investments. Many of the apps provide services that Walmart, CVS, Target, Amazon, others already provide. My hunch: Hertz, Avis, Enterprise will get into the ride-hailing business.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Visualizing 150 apps that power the "gig economy."

One of the Best Global Warming Sites


A few too many ads, but if one scrolls through the stories, it is absolutely amazing what we're seeing. Regardless of how this plays out, right now it would be easier to argue "ice ace now" rather than "global warming."

Watts Up With That?

Link here.

This site  has changed its "look." Almost too professional now, but an incredibly good site.

So Well Said

Mainstream Media Colluding With Fake Polls

With regard to the Australian election story linked above, the polls had his opponent winning. From Drudge:

It is obvious that mainstream media is colluding with pollsters reporting fake polls. There is no question in my mind that pollsters are being paid to influence elections. Mainstream media has been quite successful convincing Americans that Russian influence on American political races is a huge problem. In fact, I would argue that fake polls are a much bigger problem. I've yet to see one story on this phenomenon: why so many polls turn out wrong. I did see a story in which two researchers "pulled/retracted" their study in which they suggested the "retirement of its host" from The Daily Show resulted in a 1.1% swing in votes for Trump, in essence giving him the election. That's a start, I guess.

The Book Page

Again, best book ever -- at least for me -- with regard to the American Revolution: Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution, Nathaniel Philbrick, c. 2016.

When I read this book (and I'm still reading it) and then hear Buttigieg's pandering to African-Americans regarding Thomas Jefferson, it tells me all I need to know about Buttigieg.. Clearly he is not well-read, and clearly he has not read "the Western Canon."

The Western Canon: the Books and Schools of the Ages, Harold Bloom, c. 1994. in which the author defends the concept of the Western canon by discussing 26 writers whom he sees as central to the canon. Link here. On my top shelf.

The Magazine Page

Almost laughable. After documenting incredibly poor predictions over the centuries, The Atlantic argues that "accurate predictions" [about climate change] are possible. LOL.

Link to parody here.

Diamonds Are Forever

A single guitarist backed up by a [philharmonic] orchestra.

Diamonds Are Forever, Katie Melua

But no comparison: Shirley Bassey and the production is still the best.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Random Update Of A Record-Breaking EOG Well In Antelope Oil Field -- May 18, 2019

Over at "featured posts" at the sidebar at the post, I posted this one.

It's my hunch that this well still holds the record. At the linked site:
Bill Thomas, chairman and CEO of the independent oil and gas producer, explained how the company has drilled and completed the best Bakken well in the history of the play.
The well -- note this is a short lateral, which has produced 610,000 bbls of crude oil since 2015 (less than four years) and 320-acre spacing (huge deal for mom-and-pop mineral owners):
  • 30286, 1,974, EOG, Riverview 102-32H, Antelope, s3/16/15; TD 3/20/15; MD 15,564', TVD 10,523'; short lateral, 23 stages, 12.8 million lbs, 320-acre spacing, W/2 sect 29-152-94, t6/15; cum 610K 3/19;
Full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Global Warming Update For North Dakota -- May 18, 2019

Link here.

Despite the warmists telling us this is the warmest winter on record, it's still winter in North Dakota (and many other parts of the US).

Even here in north Texas, winter seems to linger. From earlier this month ...

... and we're getting a lot of rain today and it will be raining every day next week, until Friday (here in north Texas).

Meanwhile, back in North Dakota, today:

I'm sure there were many years when I was growing up in Williston when we had snow in May, but I don't remember any.

On Another Note -- 

Link here. Provided by a reader.

But it makes us feel good.

The Book Page

President Trump needs to read Nathaniel Philbrick's story of George Washington from the start of the Revolutionary War through the winter at Valley Forge, winter of 1777 - 1778.

The least of George Washington's problems were the British. His biggest problems were the Continental Congress and his fellow generals. Fascinating story. George Washington was surrounded by "never-George [Washington] men" in the Continental Congress and among his own fellow generals. It's quite a story. Everyone knows the "military history" of George Washington; my hunch: few know the political story.

From Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution, Nathaniel Philbrick, c. 2016.

Random Note On Documentation (Or Lack Thereof) -- May 18, 2019

Every once in awhile I come across a well that, based on a huge jump in crude oil production and produced water, the well just had to have been re-fracked even though neither the NDIC has a sundry form documenting a re-frack nor FracFocus has any record of a re-frack.

But some of the jumps in production are so great, it's hard to suggest that a re-frack was not responsible. In addition, increased production from neighboring wells near these wells under discussion also suggest there was a neighboring frack.

Just a random comment for what it's worth.

For newbies: when I see production greater than 20,000 bbls in a month, I assume it was recently fracked or very, very near a neighboring well that was just fracked.

For jumps in production from 1,000 bbls/month to 10,000 bbls/month, it's more likely due to "parent-well-uplift" and not due to a re-frack. A re-frack should get a better well than just 10,000 bbls/month (although that does happen, again, depending on the field [location]).

Random Update Of A BR Archer Well In The Charlson Oil Field -- May 18, 2019

The well:
  • 26419, 2,904, BR, Archer 14-25TFH, 33-053-05259, 31 stages, 3.5 million lbs, Charlson, t2/14; cum 569K 3/19; the sundry/completion form says the "middle Bakken" was stimulated but everything else says this was Three Forks well. No sundry form for a re-frack and no FracFocus data suggesting s re-frack. So, no refrack? Look at the jump in production for #26419 below. Neighboring well #17356 (see this post). Earlier note back in February, 2019.
Recent production (full production at this post):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Week 20: May 12, 2019 -- May 18, 2019

Top international non-energy story this past week: Tiger Woods misses the cut at the PGA championship just two weeks after taking the Masters championship.

Top international energy story this past week: Mideast saber-rattling results in all-out war of .... words.

Top US non-energy stories this past week:
Top US energy story this past week:
Geoff Simon's top ND energy stories this past week:
  • Oil production rebounds from cold weather; Helms expects the industry will be back in record-setting territory for oil production very soon with road restrictions ending and more favorable weather on the way.
  • Wealthiest county in North Dakota can't find money for schools
  • Watford City awarded $10 million airport grant; grants also awards to airports at Fargo, Hillsboro;
  • Plastics plant: second attempt -- North Dakota most likely site -- spokesman
  • North Dakota drops 11 spots in US News rankings -- Fargo Forum; (it all depends on what data is being tracked). Washington State (#1); New Hampshire (#2); Minnesota (#3)
  • NOAA: previous studies over-estimated methane emissions from oil industry; from the NOAA itself; the same agency that knows the temperature of the earth one hundred years from now to the nearest tenth degree
Bakken 101:

Cleaning Out The In-Box; Nothing About The Bakken -- May 18, 2019

Mexico, its president is starting to make Occasional-Cortex look like a financial wizard, link here:
Last week, Mexico scrapped plans to tender the construction of the refinery to foreign companies, saying that it would be Pemex that will oversee the project. According to López Obrador, the foreign firms won’t be able to meet the government deadline to have the project ready by 2022 and weren’t happy with the $8-billion price tag.
“The company has secured the financial, technical, human and material resources necessary to complete the project,” Pemex said in a statement last week. According to Pemex and López Obrador, the entire project will cost S$8.3 billion and will create 100,000 jobs. Construction is scheduled to begin on June 2 this year and is expected to conclude in May 2022.
Turkey: lira tumbles after President Trump terminates pro-trade agreement with Turkey; in response to Turkey buying Putin's S-400 missile defense system 

Pakistan: this fast growing LNG market is scrambling for new supply. Link here. Apparently Pakistan officials studied economics under Occasional-Cortex. Qatar's prices: up to 14% higher than the open market.  

Winter in May in California: that's the headline in today's LA Times. Anyone not paying attention to the weather this year is not paying attention to the solar minimum (minima?). Scroll through the site to get an idea of how things are playing out. By the way, huge storm this weekend across the midsection of the United States, and then again all next week in Texas.

Solar panels: the "great majority" of solar cells being produced at Tesla's factory in Buffalo, NY, are being shipped overseas. According to Reuters,
The exporting underscores the depth of Tesla’s troubles in the U.S. solar business, which the electric car maker entered in 2016 with its controversial $2.6 billion purchase of SolarCity.
The Mueller report and the five stages of grief. Apparently Mueller won't be testifying in May, probably not in June, perhaps never.

Friday, May 17, 2019

US Court Sides With Trump's EPA On Fuel Blending Requirements -- May 17, 2019

From ArgusMedia:
A US federal court today denied a request to block the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from issuing waivers that have slashed federal fuel blending requirements.

The Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) "has not satisfied the stringent requirements for an injunction pending court review," a three-judge panel of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals said.

EPA and the ABFA did not immediately comment on the decision.

ABFA requested the injunction in late April, citing still-redacted documents from a separate lawsuit challenging EPA's rapid increase in waivers of renewable fuel blending standards under former administrator Scott Pruitt. That lawsuit continues.

The association argued that EPA arbitrarily increased waivers to issue as many as possible. EPA has responded that the decisions were not a rulemaking that could be challenged in federal court and said it has followed the law to administer the program.

Biggest Non-Energy Story This Week For North Dakota? -- May 17, 2019

Link here to press release.

Full access.


Re-posting from March 31, 2019:
In case you were wondering, or if you need something for that cocktail party later this week: Japan's "top three" wagyu brands — Matsusaka Ushi, Kobe beef, and Ohmi (Omi) beef — all hail from the Kansai region of Japan.


Later, 5:28 p.m. CT: unless they move the cut line to +5, Tiger Woods will miss the cut.

Original Post

It looks like the PGA is doing what it can to keep Woods from missing the cut.

Throughout almost the entire day the cut was +3, the top 70 golfers (plus ties).

Woods went to +4 with a bogey at the fourteenth hole.

The PGA / Bethpage Black moved the cut to +4 which is now up to almost 90 players (87 to be exact). Seventeen are tied at 70 (+4). For newbies, the number that make the cut in most PGA tournaments is 70, not 90. But for Tiger it looks like they will stretch it a bit.

Twenty-two are tied at 87 (+5).

With four holes left, certainly Woods can pick up one stroke, letting him play the weekend.