Friday, January 18, 2019

Off The Net For Awhile

Disclaimer: I have been posting as fast as I can to keep up this morning. Much was written in haste. There will be typographical and factual errors. If anything is important to you go to the source. The political stuff is "not-ready-for-prime-time" and may need to be edited.

But I'm off the net for awhile.

Good luck to all.

State, Tribes Talking -- More Than What Is Happening In DC -- January 18, 2019

Link here.

When I get caught up, I will come back to this one.

Best News Canada Could Ever Receive -- Now, If Only They Could Get Their Pipelines Built -- January 18, 2019

Now I know the reason for the jump in the price of oil today. Regular readers know what this is all about. When I get caught up, I will come back to this.

From Reuters:
U.S. refiners are bidding up prices for scarce types of crude oil needed for their most sophisticated plants as the United States reconsiders harsher sanctions on Venezuela that could further reduce imports of the country's oil.
Trump administration officials in recent days met with U.S. oil company executives to lay out potential actions in response to the Jan. 10 inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in an election it considered illegitimate.
Among other steps, U.S. officials have recognized the opposition-run Venezuelan congress as the only legitimately elected authority. But the proposals that would most affect the energy industry involve banning U.S. exports of refined products or limiting oil imports - a move that, until now, the White House has not taken even after sanctioning individuals and barring access to U.S. banks.
A contributor over at SeekingAlpha has another explanation but that article had to have been written some days ago. It's too long and detailed to have popped up after the Reuters link above. I could be wrong. But I doubt it. LOL.

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They're Watching

After the recent Gillette hullabaloo I checked out the stories on the net. Now, I'm getting non-stop ads for Harry's:

Harry's keeps looking better and better. My son-in-law switched years ago.

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Fake News?

From The Atlantic:
The basic theory—explained to me between weary sighs and defeated shrugs—goes like this: Washington is at an impasse that looks increasingly unbreakable. President Donald Trump is dug in; so is Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Democrats have public opinion on their side, but the president is focused on his conservative base. For a deal to shake loose in this environment, it may require a failure of government so dramatic, so shocking, as to galvanize public outrage and force the two parties back to the negotiating table. 
Remember: The Atlantic has "IMPEACH" across the cover of its current issue.

I'm not convinced that the "Democrats have public opinion on their side." I think The Atlantic predicted Hillary to win, also, citing polls. In fact, the only major national poll that I was aware of that consistently had Trump out-polling Hillary was the ultra-liberal Los Angeles Times.

I don't think the president is focused on his conservative base. It's a Venn diagram at best.

It would be more accurate to say the President is focused on keeping a campaign promise. This, apparently, is something not often seen in Washington. At least not since the days of ... Abraham Lincoln?

I also don't think he's dug in. He's been in the White House ever since things came to a halt waiting to negotiate. The House Leader has been to Hawaii; the House Dems took a junket to Puerto Rico; and, the latter were about to party in Brussels (which in and of itself seems odd) -- all while the partial government shutdown continues.

The Speaker of the House has disinvited the President -- I don't think that happened even during the darkest days of the US Civil War, WWI, WWII, the Korean War, the Vietnam War.

One doesn't have to be dug in when one party doesn't even want to see you. It takes two to tango. 

By the way, I posted earlier, "crazy like a fox." If I have time this weekend, I will expand on that.

The market, by the way, is driven by "fear" and "greed." The market has been on a tear since the beginning of the year and seems to be getting stronger as the impasse drags on (the Dow is up another 330 points as we speak) . That suggests to me that, although "aides in Washington" may be afraid, the market certainly is not.

That -- the market being so strong -- is actually something to be afraid of, I suppose.

My hunch is that if there is one data point both sides are looking at it would be the stock market. That was certainly being suggested by talking heads a few weeks ago when the market was tanking. 

NDIC Has Posted New Presentations -- January, 2019

NDIC presentations here.

Most recent presentations:

This One Ad Tells Me Things Continue To Boom In The Bakken -- January 18, 2019

422 1st Avenue West is the location of the Williston Job Service Center where the interviews will be held.

To the best of my knowledge, Boot Barn has not yet opened in Williston. Website. Maybe a reader knows the proposed location. If they're hiring; it must be close to opening.


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Some Things Alexa Can Do 

I was not aware of some/most of these things. Most incredible is that one can even control the volume with one's voice. No remote needed.

The sound is excellent but one can also run the music through one's Bose speakers.

From KUMV-TV -- Good News For Retired Roughnecks With Severe Back Pain -- January 18, 2019

From KUMV-TV:
It's been more than two years since North Dakota voted to legalize medical marijuana and now Williston is a couple months away from seeing its implementation. Last week, city commission members voted unanimously to approve the application submitted by the company Harvest to begin setting up shop. The new Harvest of Williston facility will be located in the strip mall on 26th St. E, next to Smiling Moose Deli and Glow.
"Retired" is the operative word here, I suppose.

Tourists will now know why the moose is smiling. 

XWA Update -- January 18, 2019

A reader just alerted me to five new videos of the new Williston international airport and Scandinavian coffee shop now under construction.

One:

The YouTube link is here.

From the Williston Economic Development office:
The City of Williston, Cardon Global and The Creative Treatment have released five new videos featuring progress on the new Williston Basin International Airport. The five videos are accessible on the WED Facebook and YouTube pages. The new airport is expected to open October 10, 2019. A grand opening event will be held earlier for the general public.
I believe this airport is pretty much bought and paid for by the US government. I don't know the details. I'm sure Scott Adams will want a "fact check" on that.

Maybe later. I'm enjoying a duet by Ronnie Milsap and Leon Russell, in Milsap's brand new album Duets, now playing on Amazon Music -- Alexa found me; Alexa found the album. I did not go looking for this. But apparently Alexa was making notes of my music interests.

Clayton Danks -- January 18, 2019 -- Reason #1 Why I Keep Blogging

There is enough trivia in this note to carry any bona fide NoDak through every social engagement for the entire year. If you don't agree, you are not looking hard enough. LOL. 

This might take a moment to load. When I first saw it this morning, I see that it had "27 views."  It was originally posted March 24, 2015. I have no more information on this video than that.


A reader pointed me in the right direction. The YouTube link is here.

I'm glad the video is only 54 seconds long. I've already watched it a dozen times. I wish it were longer. LOL. For newbies, wondering why the videographer did not pan to the roper: the videographer was watching the horse for a reason. What one sees is really quite remarkable; I have no idea how one trains a horse to do that. It doesn't seem like it would be a "natural" movement for a horse.

The wiki entry is worth a read.
Clarence Clayton Danks (July 21, 1879 – June 23, 1970) was a three-time winner of Cheyenne Frontier Days, an outdoor rodeo and western celebration held each July in the Wyoming capital city of Cheyenne. He is believed to be the cowboy of the widely-recognized Wyoming state trademark, the Bucking Horse and Rider. .....

To Danks, the saddle that he won in 1907 was not a trophy, but a necessity of practical use .... Family members finally located the saddle at King's Saddlery and Museum in Sheridan, Wyoming, where it was obtained after much negotiation. In 2013, the saddle was donated to the Cheyenne Frontier Days Old West Museum.

The soon-to-be-famous Steamboat of the Wyoming State logo was first ridden by Danks at Frontier Days in 1909. Danks was then working as a ranch hand on the 2-Bar Ranch in the Chugwater area, where Steamboat had been foaled in 1896.

As of 2013, Ed Danks of Dunn Center in Dunn County in western North Dakota is the only living family member who ever met Clayton Danks. "We know [he was] a law enforcement officer, and that he was a fair and honest competitor. It's nice to have a hero," said Ed Danks, in an interview with the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle.

Meanwhile, Danks family members have begun searching for another saddle which Clayton won when he rode Steamboat at the CFD in 1909. Foaled at Chugwater, where Danks had lived early in the 20th century, the black gelding named Steamboat sustained a nose injury, which required removing a bone fragment from a nostril. As a result, the horse developed a sound which resembled the whistling of a steamboat whenever he bucked. The riders who could remain on Steamboat were certain to finish in the money.
After Steamboat's death in 1914, Danks rued, "I think a part of the rodeo ended for me, too."
Steamboat was inducted in 1975 into the National Cowboy Hall of Fame in Oklahoma City, and in 1979 into the Pro Rodeo Hall of Fame in Colorado Springs.

Danks died in 1970 shortly before his 91st birthday in Thermopolis in Hot Springs County in north central Wyoming.
Clayton and Marie Danks are interred at Mount Hope Cemetery in Lander in Fremont County in central Wyoming.
It gets even better, for me, personally. This past summer I drove through Thermopolis, Wyoming. I have video of some of the most beautiful country in the world of that area.

One hopes the video is never removed.

It goes without saying. A huge shout-out to the following:
  • the reader who pointed me in the right direction on this one
  • YouTube
  • the person who uploaded the video on YouTube
  • the journalist who was able to find Ed Danks and interview him
  • the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle
  • the reader who first replied to me regarding one of the drilling units in the Bakken that started this
  • the Dunn County Platt book
Did I forget anybody? Good luck to all. 

Wow -- What Happened! WTI Jumped -- January 18, 2019

WTI: up 3%; up $1.68; now trading just above $54.

NOG: jumped 10% in early trading.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Headline: Washington may keep Iranian sanctions in place. Meanwhile, OPEC continues to say they will cut production. Russia says they will not cut production immediately, citing "operational" concerns.

Alexa: phenomenal. Will play entire albums. I figured that out last night -- of course, everyone else knew that three years ago. But now, on top of that, Alexa actually suggests "new" albums for me to listen to. I was not aware of Ronnie Milsap's Duets album until now. It's incredible. From nashcountrydaily:
Country Music Hall of Fame member Ronnie Milsap will release a new album on January 18 that features duets with an A-list cast, including Billy Gibbons, Luke Bryan, Dolly Parton, Jason Aldean, Willie Nelson, Lucy Angel, Kacey Musgraves, Little Big Town, George Strait, Jessie Key, Leon Russell, Steven Curtis Chapman and Montgomery Gentry.
The 13-track collection, dubbed Ronnie Milsap: The Duets, includes one of Troy Gentry’s final recordings on the Montgomery Gentry/Ronnie duet, “Shakey Ground.” In addition, Leon Russell, who passed away in 2016, is featured on “Misery Loves Company.”
Bob's Burgers. Sophia's favorite television show. I kid you not. She watches occasional episodes when she visits our house; her family does not have cable so she is unable to see it at home. I have just ordered Season 1. Can't wait to watch it with her.

Politics: headline story today -- someone may have lied to "congress." I'm shocked, Shocked. One word: Kavanaugh. Oh, another word: Hillary.

Politics: "They" keep telling us disorganized the White House is. It's hard to believe that the White House is all that disorganized when the White House was able to put together a letter and get it to Pelosi before she flew to Brussels. LOL.

Politics: things are pretty bad for US politics when the Speaker of the House refuses to meet with POTUS and yet POTUS is willing to meet with North Korea's Kim. The latter will meet at the end of February, 2019. There is no date for POTUS to meet with SpOTH.

US Crude Oil Production Could Surge To 14 Million BOPD In Two Years -- US DOI -- January 18, 2019

Updates will be delayed this morning: family commitments later this morning.

Global warming hits northern California: massive blizzard; 100 inches of snow possible -- note to self -- memo to Patrick Kennedy ...


ISO New England, link here: spiked to $100/MW; 4% coal; 49% natural gas.

Global warming: Scott Adams re-tweets an interesting link. Finally, someone talks about water vapor as a greenhouse gas.

Connecting the dots: the RBN Energy post today is particularly timely (see below). The US DOI is now predicting that US crude oil production will surge to 14 million bopd -- wasn't the EIA forecast for 12.9 million bopd in 2020? Regardless, from Rigzone today:
With flat demand freeing up even more for export, the U.S. DOI now reports that domestic crude production could surge to 14 MMbpd by 2020.
The U.S. Gulf Coast ports, however, need to be expanded and deepened to fully load the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), some of which can hold over 3 MMbpd.
Currently, there is just one port in the region that can carry a VLCC holding 2 MMbpd.
Overall, U.S. crude exports could reach 5 MMbpd over the next five years.
U.S. policy wise, American consumers should realize that the capacity to export is a good thing. Exports encourage more production in times of flat demand to keep our own prices low. Without the export option, many in the U.S. oil industry could be forced out, and imports would play a larger role. And if more electric cars could eventually lower U.S. oil demand in a significant way, even more crude would be allowed to leave the country.
New season. By the way, who is the Secretary of the US Department of the Interior?

Keeping America great: from Rigzone --  Zheijiang Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (ZPC) will use Honeywell UOP process technology at the world’s largest crude-to-chemicals complex.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, January 18, 2019
  • 34196, 1,729, CLR, Radermecher 14-22H2, Three Forks second bench, 62 stages; 10 million lbs; Camel Butte, t10/18; cum 61K 11/18;
  • 34010, 1,661, CLR, Radermecher 10-22HSL1, Camel Butte, Three Forks first bench, 62 stages; 15.2 million lbs, t10/18; um 61K 11/18;
  • 33778, 878, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 2TX, Three Forks, 40 stages; 4 million lbs; mesh, medium, ceramic, Willow Creek, t7/18; cum 78K 11/18;
  • 33468, 2,456, CLR, Ransom 2-30H, Elidah, t12/18; cum --
Active rigs:

$54.041/18/201901/18/201801/18/201701/18/201601/18/2015
Active Rigs68583849157

RBN Energy: the renewed significance of the St James crude hub. The Louisiana story --
Throughout the middle and latter parts of the 2010s, crude oil production growth in major U.S. basins and in Western Canada — not to mention the end to the ban on most U.S. crude exports in December 2015 — has caused noteworthy shifts in crude flow patterns, stressed existing pipeline infrastructure, and highlighted the importance of crude storage and distribution hubs. A common theme through all this has been that more and more crude needs to find its way to the Gulf Coast, with its bounty of refineries and export docks. To that end, lately, there’s been a slew of new pipeline and export-terminal projects announced that are tied to the St. James crude trading hub, which is located in Louisiana, about 60 miles up the Mississippi River from New Orleans. Today, we begin a series on St. James and why it’s becoming an even bigger player in crude markets.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Thirteen New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Completed -- January 17, 2019

Wow! Unleaded regular gasoline down to $1.74/gallon in many service stations a mile or so from the highway; along the highway, about $2.05/gallon. 

Russia: can't cut production quickly -- oilprice. They can't cut their production due to winter cold and geological conditions, but I assume they could cut their exports if they had to. Just saying.

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Back to the Bakken
 
Active rigs:

$52.211/17/201901/17/201801/17/201701/17/201601/17/2015
Active Rigs68583849157

Thirteen new permits:
  • Operators: Enerplus (5); XTO (4); Newfield (3); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Eagle Nest (Dunn); Haystack Butte (McKenzie); South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie); Cabernet (Dunn)
  • Comments: Enerplus has permits for a 5-well National Park (Yellowstone/Everglades/Shiloh/Yosemite/Isle Royal) pad in lot 2, section 2-148-95; XTO has permits for 4-well Skarpsno Federal pad in 20-149-97; Newfield has permits for a 3-well Sturgeon pad in 7-150-99; and Lime Rock Resources has a permit for a new Kary well in 25-144-97; there are four other Kary wells in this drilling unit -- none of them are particularly noteworthy;
Three permits canceled:
  • Newfield: three Sturgeon permits in McKenzie County (see above, new permits)
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • MRO (5): a Stillwell, a State Loland, a State Willard, a Coah, and a Mathias permit, all in Dunn County 
  • Resource Energy Can-Am (4): two Beetles; a Charger, and an Odyssey, all in Divide County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Clark Griswold Federal permits, both in McKenzie County
  • Nine Point Energy: a Novak permit in McKenzie County
  • Newfield: a Gariety permit in McKenzie County
  • Lime Rock Resources: an Emil Veverka permit in Dunn County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35029, 693, Lime Rock Resources, Scott 3-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t11/18; cum 9K after 16 days;
  • 34752, 276, Lime Rock Resources, Schneider 12-34-27H-143-96L, Fayette, t11/18; bcum 4K after 12 days;
  • 34751, 403, Lime Rock Resources, Schneider 11-33-28H-143-96, Fayette, t11/18; cum 3K after 9 days;

Natural Gas Inventories -- US -- EIA -- January 17, 2019

Jobs -- link here --
  • weekly jobs claims fall more than expected -- CNBC
  • prior: 216,000
  • forecast: 220,000
  • latest: 213,000
  • not only less than expected, but actually decreased
  • from CNBC:
The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week. The data pointed to sustained labor market strength that should continue to underpin the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased to 213,000 for the week ended Jan. 12, the Labor Department said. [More at the linked site regarding the government shutdown and furloughed workers.]
 Natural gas fill / withdrawal:


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Cooking With Natural Gas

Christmas Dinner with the apartment complex manager.

Explaining The "Emptiness" Of Activity -- January 17, 2019

Updates

Later, 11:50 a.m. CT: folks have noticed other areas with little activity where one might expect more. From a reader:
In section 19-149-92, another example: only one well, Enerplus Knuckle, #22238. This well was drilled back in 2012 and is a very, very good well. This location STILL does not have power or gas lines. Apparently easement problems.
The well:
  • 22238, 878, Enerplus, Knuckle 149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte, t7/12; cum 404K 11/18;
The Original Post

 It seems like I've posted this before but can't recall.

The NDIC map:


The google map:


Crazy Like A Fox -- January 17, 2019

When I was growing up, I was introduced to that phrase, "crazy like a fox." That phrase flashed across my mind while updating the daily note today (the daily note is currently unavailable in accordance with the blog's guidelines).

Hold that thought -- "crazy like a fox." I might come back to that later. It's all politics, nothing to do with the Bakken.

On another political note: Mitch McConnell won't entertain any US House "money" bill that has the fingerprints of Occasional Cortex on it. 

The Halliday Wells

Tier 3?

I really don't know but look how far east / southeast the Halliday wells are. See this post.

The graphic:


The wells: not all these wells may be in the general are of the graphic highlighted above; I'm still sorting this out.

  • 35361, conf, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-6, 19-146-92; Werner,
  • 35360, conf, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-5, 19-146-92; Werner,
  • 35359, conf, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-4, 19-146-92; Werner,
  • 35164, conf, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-3, 30-146-92; Werner,
  • 34979, conf, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-12-1H 3, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay, producing as of 11/1;
  • 34978, conf, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-12-1H 4, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay,
  • 34913, conf, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-11-2H 4, 11-146-93; Wolf Bay,
  • 34912, conf, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 1, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay,
  • 34911, conf, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 2, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay,
  • 34869, 1,196, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-11-2H, 24-146-93; Wolf Bay, t10/18; cum 18K 11/18;
  • 34868, 932, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 24K 11/18; 
  • 29794, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H-3,
  • 29651, 12-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, PNC,
  • 29650, 12-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, PNC,
  • 22824, 11-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 3-11-2H, 590, t8/12; cum 312K 11/18;
  • 22604, 30-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-30-31H, 170, t9/12; cum 94K 11/18;
  • 22402, 10-145-93, Hunt, Lake Ilo, Bakken, Halliday 2-15-22H, 324, t7/12; cum 179K 11/18;
  • 21576, 13-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 2-12-1H 1, 454, t3/12; cum 358K 11/18;
  • 21344, 22-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 2-11-2H, 430, t1/12; cum 306K 11/18;
  • 21607, 19-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-19-18H, 1,122, t3/15; cum 214K 11/18;
  • 20861,  25-146-93, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-25-36H, 599, t12/11; cum 178K 11/18;
  • 20246, 19-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 1-19-18H 1, 851, t101/11; cum 342K 11/18;
  • 20180, 13-145-93, Hunt, Lake Ilo, Bakken, Halliday 1-13-24H 1, 327, t4/11; cum 121K 11/18;
  • 20027, 30-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 1-30-31H 1, 528, t11/11; cum 161K 11/18;
  • 19786, 13-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 1-12-1H 1, 843, t5/11; cum 430K 11/18;
  • 19735, 19-146-92, Hunt, Bakken, PNC,
  • 19589, 25-146-93, Werner, Hunt, Halliday 1-25-36H 1, 699, t3/11; cum 214K 11/18; 
  • 19401,15-145-93, Lake Ilo, Hunt, Halliday 1-15-22H 1, 415, t1/11; cum 224K 11/18;
  • 19094, 36-146-93, Werner, Hunt, Bakken, PNC,
  • 18977, 11-146-93, Wolf Bay, Hunt, Bakken, t2010, IA, cum 53K 8/18;
  • 9080, 16-144-92, Halliday field, Texaco, Duperow, t1982, PA, cum 32K
  • 9595, 15-144-92, Halliday field, Getty Oil, Duperow, t1982, dry,
Disclaimer: this post "under construction." There will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

EIA's Most Recent Energy Report Is Staggering -- January 17, 2019

Re-posting:
12: US oil output to average 12 million bopd in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.
That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.
The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.
Note:
  • crude oil
    • this past year, 2018: US crude oil production averaged 10.9 million bopd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate: US crude oil production will average 12.1 million bopd
    • delta: 1.2 million bopd or an increase of 11% year-over-year
    • natural gas
    • this past year, 2018: US natural gas production averaged 83.3 bcfpd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate: US natural gas production will average 90.2 bcfpd 
    • delta: 6.9 bcfpd or an increase of more than 8% year-over-year
  • but look at this, US crude oil imports:
    • current US crude oil imports are averaging about 2.4 million bopd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate for US crude oil imports drops to an average of just over 1 million bopd, and,
    • then in 2020, the estimate for uS crude oil imports drops to less than 0.1 million bopd -- 0.1 million = 100,000 bopd -- a rounding error in global production of 100 million bopd
  • first thoughts
    • one almost wonders if that is a typo: less than 100,000 bopd in 2019
    • US crude oil imports include oil from Canada
    • what does this estimate say about imports from Canada
    • where is heavy oil for US refineries coming from, or will US refineries have switched over to all light, sweet oil with "no one" noticing
    • at 100,000 bopd, one can clearly say the US is 100% energy independent
  • my only conclusion: I must be misreading something
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Prototype For Another Type Of Wall

Sent to me by a reader:


Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- Januaty 17, 2019

A little hyperbole. Offshore service spending will outpace onshore shale. Interesting, Very interesting. This story is one side of the coin, as they say; the other side of the coin is not quite as intuitive. I read that to mean that with regard to onshore shale production: operators are getting more despite spending less. Could be wrong. But the headline was certainly click bait. How much more will be spent offshore compared to onshore ... drum roll ... four percent. Must have been a very, very slow news day.

12: US oil output to average 12 million bopd in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.
That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.
The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.
*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, January 17, 2019
  • 34958, SI/NC, Slawson, Submariner Federal 4-23-20H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 33781, 743, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 5B, 50 stages; 19 million lbs,Willow Creek, t7/18; cum 79K 11/18;
  • 33728, 2,127, CLR, Norway 2-5H2, Fancy Butte, t11/18; cum 18K 11/18;
  • 33727, 2,232, CLR, Norway 3-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 18K 11/18;
Active rigs:

$51.691/17/201901/17/201801/17/201701/17/201601/17/2015
Active Rigs68583849157

RBN Energy: part 4, boom ahead for Pacific Northwest LPG exports?
LPG export terminals along the Gulf Coast account for more than nine of every 10 barrels of propane and normal butane that are shipped from the U.S. to foreign buyers. That makes perfect sense, given the terminals’ proximity to major NGL production areas like the Permian, the Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK, and to the world-class fractionation hub in Mont Belvieu, TX. But, increasingly, LPG terminals on the East and West coasts, are growing in significance. On the Atlantic side, Marcus Hook, near Philadelphia, is enabling more and more volumes of Marcellus/Utica-sourced propane and butane to reach overseas markets. And, as we discuss in today’s blog, West Coast exports are on the rise as well, with Petrogas’s Ferndale terminal in Washington state providing a straight shot across the Pacific to Asia for propane and butane fractionated in Western Canada, plus a good bit more LPG export capacity under development in British Columbia.
This is the fourth and final episode in this series on rising LPG export volumes and the race to develop new export terminal capacity to handle still-higher volumes of propane and normal butane — two NGL purity products generally referred to as LPG — into the early 2020s. 
Earlier we noted that the U.S. flipped from being a net importer to a net exporter of LPG in 2012, and that waterborne LPG exports subsequently soared to more than 1.1 MMb/d (in 2018). The vast majority of those volumes — about 92% of last year’s total — are being sent out of the half-dozen LPG terminals in coastal Texas and Louisiana. The rest of the exports-by-ship are flowing through a total of three smaller terminals in the Mid-Atlantic region and Pacific Northwest. We concluded Part 1 with a review of the Gulf Coast’s — and the U.S.’s — largest LPG export facility: the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT), which is located on the Houston Ship Channel and whose capacity is in the midst of being expanded to 720 Mb/d from the current 545 Mb/d. 
Then, we looked at the three other large Gulf Coast LPG export terminals: Targa Resources’ Galena Park Marine Terminal, also along the Houston Ship Channel, Phillips 66’s Freeport LPG Export Terminal down the coast in Freeport, TX, and Energy Transfer’s export facility in Nederland, TX. These facilities sent out a total of 578 Mb/d on average in 2018, including 233 Mb/d from Galena Park, 173 Mb/d from Freeport and 172 Mb/d from Nederland.
Finally we discussed four smaller LPG export terminals: two along the Gulf Coast and two in the Mid-Atlantic region. The busiest of these, with 2018 export volumes averaging about 60 Mb/d, is Energy Transfer’s Marcus Hook Industrial Complex near Philadelphia, which is located at the terminus of the company’s newly expanded Mariner East NGL pipeline system.
Today, we turn our attention to the Pacific Northwest, where there is a lone LPG export terminal in Washington statePetrogas’s Ferndale facility and where two new export terminals are under construction up the coast in British Columbia. Taken together, the 30-Mb/d Ferndale terminal and the planned AltaGas/Royal Vopak and Pembina terminals will provide the greater Pacific Northwest with a total of about 100 Mb/d of LPG export capacity by mid-2020. Additionally, two other BC projects now in earlier stages of development would provide Western Canadian propane and butane producers with even greater access to Asian and Latin American LPG markets as soon as 2022.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

An EOG Well That Had Been Off Line Six Months Now Back On Line -- Austin 20-29H -- #17614 -- January 16, 2019

The well:
  • 17614, 1,595, EOG, Austin 20-29H, Parshall, t9/09; cum 789K 11/18; off line as of 5/18; back on line as of 11/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2018303984385627001820156313
BAKKEN10-20182670918120
BAKKEN9-201800380000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201800480000
BAKKEN6-2018100012120
BAKKEN5-2018211196125036179216208
BAKKEN4-2018301969190052628237313
BAKKEN3-20183119762044582694238559
BAKKEN2-2018281945186002440219420
BAKKEN1-201831213121382263823860

Most likely it's back on line now that two neighboring wells have been fracked:
  • 34551, conf, EOG, Austin 112-2919H, Parshall:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20187472598
10-2018370103

  • 34552, conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2018218366829
10-2018912539

The WPX Lawrence Bull Wells In South Fork

The wells:
  • 34651, 3,499, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34650, 2,847, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34649, 2,176, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HY, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34652, 2,685, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HZ, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
The graphic:


This is what jumps out at me: all that open space.

Active Rigs At 68; Five New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed; Eleven DUCs Completed -- January 16, 2019

John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard, dies at age 89. In a way, he seemed liked a second father to me. Wow, so sad. What a great legacy.

Bruin E&P Operating, LLC: incredibly exciting, right now. It looks like they are laser-focused on the Bakken, and hitting on all cylinders, as they say. 

Active rigs:

$52.401/16/201901/16/201801/16/201701/16/201601/16/2015
Active Rigs68573649157

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Bruin (3); Newfield, Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie), White Earth (Mountrail), Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Bruin E&P Operating has permits for yet another 3-well Fort Berthold pad, this one in lot 3, section 3-150-94; Liberty Resources has a permit for a Tucson well in White Earth, section 25-158-94; and, Newfield has a permit for a Goliath well in Siveston, in lot 2, section 5-150-98; let's hope it's a "giant" of a well;
Sixteen permits renewed:
  • EOG (7): six Clarks Creek permits in McKenzie County; one Parshall permit in Mountrail County
  • BR (4): a CCU Boxcar, a CCU Audubon, a CCU Golden Creek, and a CCU Burner permit, all in Dunn County
  • CLR (2): two Entzel permits in Dunn County
  • Whiting (2): a Ray permit and a Wold permit, the former in Mountrail County, the latter in McKenzie County
  • Bruin: one Storhaug permit in Williams County
Eleven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33016, 3,031, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-9, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33018, 4,180, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-11, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34651, 3,499, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HD, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34650, 2,847, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34649, 2,176, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HY, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34652, 2,685, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HZ, South Fork, t12/18; cum --;
  • 35221, 1,115, Kraken Operating, Goodman LE 36-25 1H, Painted Woods, t12/18; cum --;
  • 35103, 791, Kraken Operating, Goodman 36-25 5H, Squires, t12/18; cum --'
  • 34869, 1,196, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H, Wolf Bay, t10/18; cum 18K 11/18;
  • 34868, 932, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 24K 11/18;
  • 33017, 3,844, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-10, t12.18; cum --;

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ISO New England

Wow, I have not seen this in awhile. Electricity provided to the grid by coal jumped to 4% today; renewable energy down to as low as 9% today but back to 11% now. Electricity appears to have averaged well above $75/MW since midnight early this morning.

Later: after posting that, I received this note from someone who really, really follows this very, very closely.
Last night the Pilgrim nuke plant in Massachusetts started dropping output and now, according to the nrc.gov site, is only operating at 26% capacity.

That should stress the region's generating ability as this cold front moves in.

In a somewhat related vein, the Vineyard Wind project is expected to announce a very minimal compensation package to Rhode Island fishermen for the loss of fishing grounds due to their proposed offshore wind farm.

The meeting to announce the granting/withholding of the necessary permit by the Coastal Resource Council has again been postponed; the next meeting has now been moved to January 29.
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Gasoline Demand

Link here.


More Evidence That Folks Are Not Concerned About Global Warming -- January 16, 2019; BC Has Fallen Off The Rails When It Comes To Controlling Carbon Emissions; Geico Rock Award Nominee For 2019

When talking about the environment, one doesn't often see the phrase, "... has fallen off the rails." 

From oilprice:
The carbon footprint of British Columbia is growing and has been growing for the last eight years despite a strong environmentalist lobby.
The Global and Mail quotes a spokesman for the Ministry of Environment as saying British Columbia has fallen off the rails leading to the achievement of its carbon emission reduction target for 2030.

The reason for this failure has, however, nothing to do with the oil industry as such. It’s simply a question of more people driving more cars. [Well, that sort of has something to do with the oil industry.]

“We’re still living in a fossil-fuel-based economy, and we’ve experienced economic and population growth,” the Globe and Mail quoted a Simon Fraser University researcher, Mark Jaccard, as saying. “More people are driving more cars, and unless we make a significant leap towards electric vehicles, these emissions will continue to rise.”

British Columbia had a target of cutting carbon emissions by 33 percent from 2007 levels to 2020. However, the new figures reveal the province has only succeeded in cutting emissions by 2.2 percent from 2007 levels, which means the 2020 target will be pretty much unattainable unless a radical change in driving habits takes place.
Of course, it could have been much worse. Imagine if BC had actually allowed all those pipelines.

One wonders if all those faux environmentalists driving to their protest sites needed more cars? 

First nominee for the Geico Rock Award for 2019: Mark Jaccard for noting that "we are still living in a fossil-fuel-based economy."

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A Really, Really Important Question

We just spent close to ten days in the Los Alamos area of northeastern New Mexico. We saw the video on the Los Alamos laboratory. They are doing some great work there, but a lot of it certainly seemed to be "make work" projects to ensure that the US has a stable of nuclear engineers going forward.

Oilprice has an op-ed today asking whether the US can keep its nuclear industry afloat? That's a very, very good question. In addition, there's this article: France may be attempting the impossible: replacing its aging nuclear power plants with inefficient, costly, and non-dispatchable solar/wind energy projects. What will France do when (not "if") this does not work out? They will end up doing what Germany is doing: burn more coal (and wood chips from South Carolina, USA).

*********************************
Millennials Challenged

 This was a link over at Drudge today.
Suggestion: unplug the Amazon product. There is a YouTube video that has instructions on how to unplug an electrical appliance.

***************************************
Be Afraid, Very Afraid

From the poll:
Though just one-in-three voters have a favorable opinion of freshman Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, if she were old enough to run for president in 2020, she’d give President Trump a run for his money.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- US -- EIA -- January 16, 2019

Updates

Later, 3:54 p.m. CT: see first comment and this link -- https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W.  

Original Post 

The EIA weekly petroleum report is scheduled to be released today. Earlier, the EIA said their reports would not be delayed due to the partial government shutdown.

Link here.

Weekly US petroleum report, EIA:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.7 million bbls
  • WTI upon the news: up 9 cents, at $52.20 
  • US crude oil inventories: now at 437.1 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: now 8% above the 5-year average -- and remember, the 5-year average continues to increase; the Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016 certainly re-set the numbers
  • refiners are operating at a 94.6% capacity; trending lower
  • motor gasoline inventories about 6% above the 5-year average
  • distillate fuel product supplied was down almost 9% from the same period last year
  • jet fuel supplied was down almost 6% compared with same four-week period last year
Now, five minutes later, the price of WTI has turned red, down four cents. Movers and shakers apparently anticipated the report. Regardless of the draw (almost 3 million bbls) the fact that crude oil in storage, on a percentage basis, has actually increased over the past few weeks, is certainly disturbing for those hoping for a bull market in oil.

Re-balancing to 400 million bbls in storage:

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
A long, long time
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Won’t happen in my life time