Sunday, December 16, 2018

Random Update Of Petro-Hunt Charlson Well With Nice Production Jump -- December 16, 2018

The well:
  • 23080, 1,022, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18B-2H, Charlson, t3/13; cum 162K 10/18; after neighboring wells fracked, the production for this well jumped from 1,300 bbls/month to 4,000 bbls over 9 days which extrapolates to almost 14,000 bbls/month;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201894076391291639545873304
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201826112211553201841163723
BAKKEN6-20183013011338342215619470
BAKKEN5-20183113351341313220219860
BAKKEN4-201830129313102622017174959
BAKKEN3-2018291101106420716661301169
BAKKEN2-2018271045107527520121712115
BAKKEN1-201831152014873402689238093
BAKKEN12-2017311355135533525942172206

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Something A Little Different

From PBS News Hour: how a serious illness gave Eugene O'Neill his dark literary power.This was form a year ago, October 16, 2017.

Eugene O'Neill is one of those writers I just can't get my hands around, so when I see an article on O'Neill I'm always interested.

From one of my favorite books, Eugene O'Neill and Dat Ole Davil Sea by Robert A. Richter, c. 2004:
Eugene O'Neill's maritime period spanned two years, a brief time in the life of a man who lived to be 65, but his days at sea and on shore would reverberate throughout his life and mark his work in unpredictable ways.

As American's only Nobel Prize winnign playwright and the winner of four Pulitzer Prizes, O'Neill has drawn the attention of ...
I don't find that a bit unusual. Two years ...

For my dad who had a very, very successful life and lived to be 96 years old, he talked most about the two years he served in the US Coast Guard (US Navy) during WWII.

For me, I had a most successful military career of 30 years and a day, and yet I have only one or two short periods of time that I consider the best years of my life.

I guess it's time to re-read Dat Ole Davil Sea. Original notes at these posts:

The Carnival Is Over, The Seekers

Petro-Hunt Activity In Charlson -- Nice Jump In Production After Neighboring Wells Fracked -- December 16, 2018

The well:
  • 34611, 1,387, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen 153-95-17C-7-2H, Three Forks, 49 stages; 10.5 million lbs, Charlson, t10/18; cum 74K in less than three months:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20183836354924
9-20182606598

In that same area, an earlier Klevmoen well:
  • 19864, 1,333, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 17D-4-3H, Charlson, t7/11; cum 358K 11/18; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201827771772621955758473960
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-2018108007421907176520
BAKKEN7-2018161074113711010799730
BAKKEN6-20183020081930272264124320
BAKKEN5-20183118491967173286126450
BAKKEN4-20182517251759115236121930
BAKKEN3-20183121302043190313329170
BAKKEN2-20182819461952172274625510
BAKKEN1-20183123402289172298827720
BAKKEN12-20173118361929152280325870
BAKKEN11-20173022112168227329630870

**************************************
Now And Then

(Now and Then There's) A Fool Such As I, Slim Whitman

The steel guitar (beginning at 1:30) is truly incredible. Hank Snow was the "original," but I do enjoy Slim Whitman's cover.

I had three great loves in my life.
Pardon me if I'm sentimental when we say good-bye;
Don't be angry with me should I cry.
When you're gone yet I'll dream a little dream as years go by ....

Random Update Of The Enerplus Hudson Well In Mandaree -- December 16, 2018

This page will not be updated.

Note that this well:
  • produced almost 300K in less than 20 months;
  • is a short lateral, but,
  • even more importantly for mineral owners, the well is on 320-acre spacing! Wow!
The well:
  • 20087, 378, Enerplus, Hudson 13-21H, Mandaree, t3/17; cum 276K 10/18; apparently no effect on another well in this section, #18128;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201831642565341754632862460
BAKKEN9-201830667165381782600535862362
BAKKEN8-201831685168381717654764880
BAKKEN7-201831737073781901725671970
BAKKEN6-20182863276298234053785230101
BAKKEN5-201831713472061656624361840
BAKKEN4-201830656964831321618461270
BAKKEN3-2018311100611141324519750196920
BAKKEN2-2018281495215117346020350203000
BAKKEN1-20183084028217205971416883201
BAKKEN12-2017311127711202263612281122330
BAKKEN11-2017301190012108289814104140520
BAKKEN10-2017201141411353331011900118650
BAKKEN9-2017301900819071523026462264050
BAKKEN8-2017312484224744621528519284600
BAKKEN7-2017292091021155469721267212180
BAKKEN6-2017302117820930541720584205280
BAKKEN5-20173127278276337519245501040014092
BAKKEN4-20173039276399981959333385033329
BAKKEN3-201713697953134405593205911

Wells Coming Off The Confiential List This Next Week

Six months ago, it was early summer in the Bakken.

Monday, December 24, 2018:
34148, conf, Hess, SC-TR Slette-153-98-1819H-5, Truax, no production data, 

Sunday, December 23, 2018:
34485, conf, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5F, Antelope, no production data, 
34147, conf, Hess, SC-TR Slette-153-98-1819H-4, Truax, no production data, 

Saturday, December 22, 2018:
None. 

Friday, December 21, 2018:
34942, conf, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36CR, Bear Den, no production data, 
34922, conf, Slawson, Whitmore 3-7-6H, Parshall, no production data,
29793, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H-3, Werner, producing, albeit not much,


Thursday, December 20, 2018:
34921, conf, Slawson, Whitmore 4-7-6H, Parshall, no production data, 
34206, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-10, Blue Buttes, no production data,
33691, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 41-11 12T, Sanish, a nice well:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20182068426560
9-20181719118559
8-20181503616061
7-20183290640148
6-201866815697

Wednesday, December 19, 2018:
34205, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-9, Blue Buttes, no production data,
3420, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Tuesday, December 18, 2018:
33690, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 41-11 11B,  Sanish, producing, a nice well
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20182559733277
9-20181138811152
8-20181905125809
7-20182754124548
6-201876128046


Monday, December 17, 2018:
34869, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-6, Wolf Bay, producing;
34611, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen 153-95-17C-7-2H, Charlson, a huge well:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20183836354924
9-20182606598
 
Sunday, December 16, 2018
:
34023, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, no production data, 

Saturday, December 15, 2018
:
34868, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, one month of production;
34202, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32842, conf, BR, Remington 4A MTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data, the Remington wells are tracked here;

Notes From The Mideast -- December 16, 2018

I'm going to take a break in a few minutes, but there are huge things happening in the Mideast right now.

More and more stories that OPEC is more and more irrelevant (something we talked about years ago).

Saudi Arabia is under huge pressure from all sides. MBS has his hands full, not to say, that he also has blood on his hands, regardless of what Mike Pompeo and his boss have to say about that.

Saudi Arabia may end up "recognizing" Israel in 2019. From wiki:
As of 2018, 161 of the 192 UN member states recognize Israel. 31 UN member states do not recognize Israel. These include 18 members of the Arab League: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Whether it's official or not, a handshake photograph seen around the world will be almost as good.

Jared Kushner could get a lot of credit if that were to happen.

Qatar, breaks from OPEC, says it may invest $20 billion in the US -- and not just in its core competency, natural gas. 

And that's just what is being reported in the past couple of weeks.  

By the way, regardless of how Pompeo/Trump are addressing the Khashoggi affair, imagine how #44 would have handled it. Or #43. Or #42. Or #41. Scary.  

*******************************
Top Ten Movies

We've talked about this before. For a movie to get to my "Top Ten" list, I have to be willing to watch it many times a years. Not that I necessarily would but if someone were to ask me if I would like to watch "such and such a movie" tonight -- a movie that I had seen a dozen times and willing to watch again -- that movie would be a candidate for my "Top Ten" list.

I saw Clint Eastwood's The Mule yesterday. A good movie, but I have no desire to see it again.

I watched Birdman again two nights ago; it's on my "Top Ten" list.

I watched Casablanca again last night: it's on my "Top Ten" list and might be #1 on that list. 

Others on my "Top Ten" list: Midnight in Paris; maybe, Lost in Translation." 

Dr Zhivago is an interesting exception to the rule. It's on my "Top Ten" list but I can't watch it  -- it is way too sad. Incredibly sad. I'll re-watch it rarely.

Another exception: Lawrence of Arabia. To some extent, same reason as given for Dr Zhivago

A movie on the cusp of moving into the "Top Ten": The Great Gatsby.  

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas? The first half. 

A top ten music video disguised as a movie? Kinky Boots.



Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow? Norah Jones

Did Chesto Get Ahead Of His Headlights? -- December 16, 2018

A reader updates this story:
A few weeks back, a Rhode Island fishermen's advisory council unanimously voted down Vineyard Wind's project due to the turbines' placement. Shortly thereafter, the Rhode Island Maritime regulatory body postponed a scheduled permitting vote - necessary for the project to proceed - in order for the fishermen and Vineyard Wind to come up with an agreeable compromise (HIGHLY doubtful).

The vote is now scheduled for the end of January.

A Vineyard Wind spokesman has already stated that, absent a positive, timely approval, both Vineyard Wind and all northeast offshore projects might be scuttled.

Fishermen and wholesale fish marketers up and down the East coast are mobilizing to block these wind farms.
The original "Chesto" story was posted yesterday, December 15, 2018;
Winds of change: The blockbuster auction for offshore wind leases that wrapped up today should leave few doubts: The industry has finally arrived in New England.

Three developers backed by major European energy companies won access to 390,000 acres of federal waters nearly 20 miles south of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, after numerous rounds of spirited bidding that stretched over two days. These firms will each pay a record $135 million for the rights to build massive windmills in their respective slices of the ocean.

Walter Cruickshank, head of the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, told reporters: “We are completely blown away by this.” He was speaking for the agency that oversaw the auction, of course. Bu

t he also summed up the industry’s reaction. Although these areas will take many years to fully develop, BOEM says the three lease sites combined could eventually support 4,100 megawatts of wind generation, enough juice for 1.5 million homes.
Much more at the link.

The Young And The Beautiful, The Great Gatsby, Lana del Rey

List Of LNG Export Terminals Update -- December 16, 2018


A most important post regarding LNG export terminals in the US was posted on October 12, 2016.

To all of that, add Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas (existed prior to October, 2016) and now the fact that Qatar plans to expand.

Later, a writer expands on the above --
Quick followup to this LNG export post ... several projects of special note -
Driftwood incorporating modularization to produce HUGE volumes at VERY low cost

Delfin using new generation of 'Floaters' (FLNG) to reduce time and cost even further.

Main Pass Energy Hub to produce - if it comes to fruition - a revolutionary floater approach using 2 ships to produce an astounding 24 million tonnes per year (mtpa) at a cost of $9 billion.

A project proposed to place up in the woods of northeast Pennsylvania: New Fortress Energy will be the operator. A near-Elba Island capacity of 2.1 mtpa LNG plant for under $900 million and an 18 month build time.

I realize that the numbers, scope and terminology of the natgas world can be confusing, but the handling, processing and transportation of this stuff is rapidly evolving with enormous, global implications.

Qatar Helping To Make America Great -- December 16, 2018

This is really, really, really cool.

Back on December 12, 2018, I did not have time to provide the full story, so I simply provided the link and suggested readers connect the dots for themselves. I don't know how many did. That's fine.

That story was huge. There are some big things going on in the Mideast.

But now there's more to the story.

As we all know, links everywhere, Qatar has quit OPEC. Everyone says it's a symbolic move. La-de-dah. In politics, most everything is symbolic. LOL. Be that as it may.

Not only is Qatar leaving OPEC but it now has plans to invest as much as $20 billion dollars in the US in the coming years.

This is $20 billion that is not going to be invested in the Mideast, France, Germany, Russia, China, or Japan. This infrastructure build-out continues to widen the energy gap between the US and the rest of the world.

[By the way, as much as I dislike wind/solar, US renewable energy will outdistance the rest of the world in the long run also.]

But I digress. Back to the linked story.
Qatar Petroleum (QP) is looking to invest at least $20 billion in the United States over the coming few years, its chief executive told Reuters, after the Gulf Arab state unexpectedly quit OPEC this month.
Saad al-Kaabi, who holds the energy portfolio of the world’s top liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplier, also said on Sunday QP aimed to announce its foreign partners for the new LNG trains it is building by the middle of next year, and the company has decided to self-finance the expansion rather than borrowing.
“We are looking at many assets in the U.S. We’re looking at gas and oil, conventional and non-conventional,” Kaabi said in an interview at his office in Doha.
Qatar, a tiny but wealthy country is one of the most influential players in the LNG market due to its annual production of 77 million tonnes. It plans to boost capacity 43 percent by 2023-2024 and will be building four liquefaction trains for the LNG expansion.
Finally, back to the December 12th story: the reason Qatar left OPEC. Because it is the majority owner of the Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas. Connecting the dots will explain how the two are connected.

The Challenges Of Calculating Break Even Costs In Tight Oil Fields -- December 16, 2018

See this post for background and full production profile.

The well:
  • 16677, 101, MRO, Beck 24-8H, Bailey, initial frack, open-hole with 500K lbs sand; 45-stage re-frack in 2017 with only 5.8 million lbs sand, t12/07; cum 172K 10/18;
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

This well was a lousy well by any measure when it was first drilled. We talked about that at the time, but it fulfilled its role: a) it provided geologists an opportunity to look at the geology of the drilling unit; and, b) it held the lease by production for ten years. 

Back in 2007 most of the cost was in drilling the well; the stimulation costs should have been minimal: open-hole stimulation with around 500,000 lbs of sand. Big deal. LOL.

Wells back then were taking up to 45 days or more to drill, from spud to completion. Wow, think about that. Now they are drilling these wells in six days, fourteen days max, and then shutting them in, to come back and frack a group of wells, each frack taking three to five days.

This well was off-line most of its life and would have cost little to maintain.

Then in 2017, it was re-fracked with a small amount of sand, less than 6 million lbs. The operator essentially got a brand new well for the cost of small frack.

The operator did not have to go through the laborious process of obtaining surface rights; mineral rights; building a new pad; building a ten-mile road out to the site; bringing in electricity; putting in a new natural gas fractionator; etc; etc; etc. All the infrastructure was done. In fact, it's possible there are water lines in some areas negating multiple water truck runs. Some areas have waste water pipelines in place. And the cost savings go on and on.

One can calculate the break even cost(s) of this well going all the way back to 2007, but those costs have long been "booked." Anything prior to 2010 is certainly ancient history, some might argue.

On the other hand, some might argue that the break even costs of oil coming up from that well after the re-frack is the "new" break even cost. I don't know.

This is the beauty of drilling in the Bakken. Chevron calls these projects "short-cycle projects." Operators can pick and choose which wells to re-frack based on many factors. The WTI spot price is simply one factor, and perhaps a minor factor in the overall scheme of things.

There are many ways to figure break even costs in tight oil.

In the Permian, and in the Bakken, to some extent, there is even another huge variable. I'll let readers think about that for awhile. A reader mentioned it the other day. 

But what I love most about this well, as noted above: this well was a lousy well by any measure when it was first drilled. Many readers talked about that. Wondering why operators kept drilling wells like this. We talked about that at the time, but this well and many others like it fulfilled their roles: a) these wells provided geologists an opportunity to look at the geology of the drilling unit; and, b) these individual early wells held the lease by production for ten years.

Random Update / Example Of A BR Well In The Core Bakken -- December 16, 2018

This page won't be updated. The Anderson Ranch wells are tracked here.

In the early early days of the boom, in the core Bakken, we might have seen nice 24-hour IPs, but the wells declined quickly. The production after the initial frack might peak at about 8,000 bbls/month; quickly decline; and be lucky to hit 100,000 bbls in two or three years.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Now we are seeing more and more wells in the core Bakken, looking like this:
  • 32635, 476, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, API: 33-053-07585, gas shows were very, very low, averaging 105 units but did register a hight of 8,934 units, Camel Butte, huge well, 23 stages; 9.9 million lbs sand, t5/17; cum 348K 10/18;
Note the initial production. Instead of 8,000 bbls at the peak following the initial frack we are seeing the peak at over 30,000 bbls. Instead of seeing the decline in just a few months, this well was still producing over 30,000 bbls/month  six months later. And then most importantly, in less than 18 months, cumulative at 350,000 bbls.

When the boom began, many thought that the EUR for Bakken wells would be 350,000 bbls.

This well has produced that much in 18 months, and it will go on producing for 35 years. Over its lifetime, it will undergo multiple workovers; mini-re-fracks; major re-fracks; effect of neighboring wells; better re-completion strategies; etc.

This well was off-line in July, 2018, for a workover.

And, oh, by the way, for those folks who might argue that huge amounts of expensive proppant (ceramic, for example) is being used, this used a fairly moderate/large amount of proppant but it was all white sand and mesh; no expensive ceramic. In addition, only 23 stages. Imagine the production ad the typical 50 to 60 stages been employed.

Full production profile for this well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2018311148611487671126717266140
BAKKEN9-2018301278212798794225442253430
BAKKEN8-2018261067910426830517443129164440
BAKKEN7-2018002520000
BAKKEN6-20182919367194791604018544018445
BAKKEN5-20183122183220911923825502200605337
BAKKEN4-20183021797216871531637050369480
BAKKEN3-20181180887960784211864118170
BAKKEN2-20182902122510819110
BAKKEN1-2018262854928349741547999479040
BAKKEN12-2017313163531665954656427563240
BAKKEN11-20172831025310141006544732446380
BAKKEN10-2017272427624326873937199371040
BAKKEN9-20172729123290741047139309392120
BAKKEN8-2017312930929298981048612485090
BAKKEN7-2017262699227171917241527414620
BAKKEN6-20173031632315821546748840487660
BAKKEN5-2017228519822467911589714904938