Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Random Update Of An Old CLR Dvirnak Well -- December 11, 2018

The well:
  • 20806, 744, CLR, Dvirnak 2-7H, API: 33-025-01369, Jim Creek, t12/11; cum 301K 10/18; available data suggests this well has not been re-fracked.
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183110469104291210311342109280
BAKKEN9-20182520880204101892322191218600
BAKKEN8-20184238823373724164101600
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018232367404
BAKKEN2-201824109614045061321130615
BAKKEN1-20183116731612527218321830
BAKKEN12-201731166016174712085206916
BAKKEN11-20173016501428454204020400
BAKKEN10-20173117302014489217021700

The Dvirnak wells are tracked here.

The CLR Dvirnak Wells In Jim Creek Oil Field Are Being Completed -- December 11, 2018

This page will not be updated.

The Dvirnak wells are being fracked; some are completed. The Dvirnak wells are tracked here.

Note the production profile of one of the Dvirnak wells:
  • 32749, 2,358, CLR, Dvirnak 8-7H, 47 stages; 12.5 million lbs, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 72K 10/18;
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183162410622447163078652715277125
BAKKEN9-20184775176377373826558932372
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20185134013409870179901799
BAKKEN5-20181001468000

MRO Extends Core Position In The Bakken -- December 11, 2018

Updates

December 12, 2018: one thing overlooked in the note below. This announcement was made in the face of tanking WTI prices, trading at about $50 when the announcement was made. Speaks volumes.

Original Post 

I had alluded to this earlier, in an earlier post; a reader provided link to information released today. 

Background:
A reader sent me a link to this press release: Marathon reports successful Bakken core extension test in Ajax area.
HOUSTON, Dec. 11, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Marathon Oil Corporation today announced encouraging early production results at an important four-well Middle Bakken pad in the Company's Ajax area of the Williston Basin in Dunn County, North Dakota.
The four-well pad achieved an estimated average 30-day initial production (IP) rate of over 2,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) (84% oil).
The Company also announced it has repurchased approximately $150 million of additional common stock subsequent to the date of its third quarter 2018 earnings release. Year-to-date share repurchases now total approximately $650 million, leaving $850 million of buyback authorization outstanding.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+36 -- December 11, 2018 -- Shale Story Staggering

I had no interest in this article, but the very first paragraph caught me by surprise. I thought the Arctic was ice-free and tourists were watching polar bears from Norwegian cruise ships. Boy, was I wrong! From oilprice:
For many, the Northeast Passage through the Arctic could one day be a ‘Northern Suez Canal’. While icy waters have frozen such dreams, recent advances in nuclear technology might finally unlock the full economic potential of the once-daunting Arctic waters.

There is no shortage of interest in the High North. In October, the Trump administration in the U.S. approved a project to extract oil from beneath the Beaufort Sea, though melting ice has since forced changes to those plans. [What?]
That same melting ice, while raising major environmental concerns, simultaneously creates other possibilities: among them, the prospect of dramatically shortened sea routes between Europe and Asia which could cut transit times by two weeks compared to the Suez Canal passage. Those reduced travel times translate to savings of 40% on both fuel and shipping costs, while lowering CO2 emissions by 52%.

However, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the Russian Arctic coast – a key leg of the Northeast Passage – has historically been traversable only from July to October. It has mainly been used by domestic Russian players, and requires the use of icebreakers and specially equipped ‘ice class’ vessels. In short, a thriving NSR has been nothing more than a dream, even with the melting ice, because it’s simply impossible to sail in the region for most of the year.
Not quite ice-free, I guess.

The Economist now says the Arctic will be ice-free by 2040. And that's about the time the Arctic will be producing oil, I suppose.

When was the Arctic predicted to be ice-free? 2014. 

I love the quibbling. From snopes, FWIW:
In the late 2000s, Al Gore made a series of high-profile statements suggesting the possibility that Arctic sea ice could be completely gone during the summer by around 2013 or 2014.
Gore did not himself make these predictions but said (in some cases erroneously) that others had; Gore never referred to a year-long lack of ice for both poles, but instead largely referenced Arctic sea ice in the summer.
😄

Number Of North Dakota Active Rigs Up One -- December 11, 2018; Petro-Hunt With Huge 900K Well (Seven Years Old)

US crude oil weekly inventory numbers, API data: oilprice. I think this is the biggest draw I've ever seen in one week. It will be interesting to see what the EIA has to say tomorrow. Last week, the API reported a build of over 5 million barrels. A day later, the EIA had a completely contradictory report showing a 7.3-million-barrel draw. Today, from the API:
  • an inventory draw of 10.18 million bbls
  • forecast: a draw of 2.990 million bbls

*************************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active wells:

$51.9712/11/201812/11/201712/11/201612/11/201512/11/2014
Active Rigs65524065186

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Kraken Operating (4); Sinclair
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Robinson Lake (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Kraken has permits for a 4-well pad in 24-154-93; Sinclair's State well will be in section 36-154-93;
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33905, 1,219, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-4-1HS, Charlson, t10/18; cum 12K over 11 days which extrapolates to 33K over 30 days;
    • neighboring wells: #32529 (SI/NC), #32530 (SI/NC), #32531 (SI/NC), #32532 (conf), and, #32533 (conf).
    • far to the east in this section: 
    • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; cum 900K 10/18, recent production:
      PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
      BAKKEN10-20181232613644743708758111197
      BAKKEN9-20183092779448198516977142652503
      BAKKEN8-2018319216904021161796017618126
      BAKKEN7-201831972498732209178901759579
      BAKKEN6-201830106501110228551646116076176
      BAKKEN5-20183111129105732472170021670482
      BAKKEN4-201830111911139025491651415353952
      BAKKEN3-2018311171011530243316543163270
      BAKKEN2-201828111341123024701623115528508
      BAKKEN1-2018311272412821290218163179470
      BAKKEN12-20173113263129402992176331734374
      BAKKEN11-201730131171345431081676982098351
      BAKKEN10-2017311443914496328219217019001
      BAKKEN9-2017301267412004368216658016477
      BAKKEN8-20174501690858618390
      BAKKEN7-20173151755311460810878920
      BAKKEN6-2017305032503240573026873220
      BAKKEN5-20173150544857418896227176029
      BAKKEN4-201730533756095278791852260
      BAKKEN3-20173157065469480897287560
      BAKKEN2-20172853435422447830381080
      BAKKEN1-20173166186749572932191050
By the way, that area is also a great area for Madison wells; most of them are now abandoned.

However, Petro-Hunt is drilling a Madison well in the area:
  • 28227, conf, Petro-Hunt, CMNU C-205X, Charlson, t--; cum --

CLR Reports Two Huge Thorvald Wells -- December 11, 2018

This page will not be updated. The CLR Thorvald wells are followed elsewhere.

Two Thorvald wells have recently come off the confidential list:
  • 29711, 1,625, CLR, Cukelly 4-7H1, Rattlesnake Point, 62 stages; 12.2 million lbs, t6/18; cum 98K 10/18; note: the sundry forms with frack data has this as a middle Bakken well; in fact, it's a Three Forks B1 well;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-201831182961840633503346661608018186
    BAKKEN9-20183017846178553606326368166689339
    BAKKEN8-20183118712188643874125501201105005
    BAKKEN7-20181913291128822999818026494812834
    BAKKEN6-201826286242850750102395981632522969
  • 29710, 1,985, CLR, Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 12 million lbs, t9/18; cum 40K 10/18; note: the sundry forms with frack data has this as a Three Forks B1 well; in fact, it's a middle Bakken well;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-20181713647137282105420815660014215
    BAKKEN9-20181824898246763073841500106340437
    BAKKEN8-20180000000
    BAKKEN7-20180000000

The Hess AN-Dinwoodie Wells In Antelope Oil Field

Updates

December 10, 2018: the Dinwoodie wells will now be tracked here. Production data has been updated. There is a rig on site and I assume the rest of the Dinwoodie wells are being fracked.


Original Post (from December 29, 2016)

Proposed location for a 5-well Hess AN-Dinwoodie pad:



*************************************
The AN-Dinwoodie Wells
Antelope-Sanish

The first one:
  • 19887, 714, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H1, Antelope, Sanish pool, t7/11; cum 251K 1/19; off line since 1/19; from the file report, the geologist's notes: the Antelope field covers more than 76 square miles and produces from seven pools: Devonian, Madison, Red River, Sanish, Silurian, Stonewall, and Winnipeg/Deadwood. Sanish pool cumulative production totals from December 1953 through January 2011 is: 13,628,037 BO; 1,324,964 BW; and, 13,049,445 MCFG. Peak oil production occurred in 1966 with a maximum of 34 wells producing from the Sanish Pool during 1967 and 1968. Seventeen wells are currently producing from the Sanish pool in Antelope field.
The Devonian Three Forks formation and target zone: 11,262' MD (10,866' TVD). The top of the ideal preferred target zone is approximately 16' TST beneath the top of the Three Forks formation.

The target zone ... informally named "D" and "E" intervals...the lateral was drilled 100% within the upper portion of the Three Forks formation, wiht greater than 70% of the well bore to be completed within the ideal preferred target porosity. Drilled from re-entry to TD in 23.7 days; drilling along the the lateral was efficiently executed in two runs.
Then:
  • 33238, 3,541, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-8, API: 33-053-07890, Antelope, t4/19; cum 72K in less than 3 months;
  • 33237, 900, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-7, API: 33-053-07889, Antelope, no production data,
  • 33236, rig on site (10/18), 2,706, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-6, API: 33-053-07888, Antelope, 70K in less than 3 months;
  • 33235, 2,154, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-5, API: 33-053-07887, Antelope, t4/19; cum 58K 6/19;
  • 33234, 2,471, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-4, Antelope, API: 33-053-07886, t4/19; cum 71K 6/19;
  • 32860, 2,708, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-2, Antelope-Sanish, t10/17; cum 194K 6/19;
  • 32861, 2,202, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-3, Antelope-Sanish, t10/17; cum 241K 6/19;
  • 32862, 1,952, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-LE-153-94-2833H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t10/17; cum 223K 6/19; recently (6/19) back on line after being off line for five months;
  • 19887, 714, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-1, Antelope-Sanish, t7/11; cum 251K 12/18; no bump in production; off line as of 1/19; still no back on line as of 6/19;

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+36 -- December 11, 2018 -- Shale Story Staggering

Wow, this is quite a story, from Bloomberg: US shale becomes oil industry's safe haven. I haven't read the article yet. Let's read it together. I'm curious if Bloomberg uses the new "catch phrase" for US shale: "short-cycle projects." Perhaps coined by Chevron?

From the linked article:
Big Oil is investing more in U.S. shale, not less, after the recent tumble in crude prices.
It’s a far cry from four years ago when OPEC declared war on American shale areas, which at the time had some of the highest costs anywhere in the world and were often the first on the chopping block during tough times.
The cost of shale production has fallen so much since then that it’s becoming a safe haven for major oil companies in times of volatile prices, providing rapid, reliable growth and quick returns even with crude trading for just over $50 a barrel, down by almost a third since the start of October.
The U.S. shale sector has helped boost American production to an average of 10.9 million barrels a day this year, the most on record. Output is forecast to grow a further 11 percent next year, according the Energy Information Administration.
ConocoPhillips said Monday it’s spending half its 2019 budget in the continental U.S., while Chevron Corp. is investing more at home than it’s done for more than a decade, with $3.6 billion going to the Permian Basin alone. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Hess Corp., both global operators, plan to increase spending on their American assets more than 40 percent.
So, far, "short-cycle' has not been used.

From Conoco's CEO:
Production growth “slows down at $50 but I don’t think it stops at $50, and it certainly continues if prices get back to $60,” Lance said. Skeptics thought shale “wouldn’t last long, but it’s here, it’s a huge resource and it’s going to be resilient and long lasting.”
Conoco alone will increase its shale production 25 percent next year, Lance said. That’s on top of growth of about 35 percent expected this year. The shale revolution is having a bigger impact on energy markets than the development of offshore production in the 1960s, he said.
Short-cycle? From Bloomberg, previously posted:
[Chevron's] Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth’s decision to raise spending while oil is in free fall shows how the industry has become more comfortable operating at lower prices after cutting costs and shunning complex projects in recent years. But in March he pledged to keep annual budgets at no more than $20 billion for the next three years, about half the amount earmarked for 2014 when the company was overspending on gas projects in Australia.
“Our investments are anchored in high-return, short-cycle projects, with more than two-thirds of spend projected to realize cash flow within two years,” Wirth said in the statement.

Mike Filloon On The Permian -- December 11, 2018

Mike Filloon as a good article over at SeekingAlpha. He is exactly correct: the Permian bottleneck will continue as huge well results continue. Archived.

I don't follow the Permian very closely. But based on what the Bakken is doing, the Permian is going to blow folks away.

First of all, this pipeline problem. It's temporary. Free market capitalism will solve this problem sooner than later. I think there was even a post along that line not too long ago.

But based on the Bakken the Permian is going to surprise a lot of folks. The wells in the Bakken keep getting better and better; costs coming down; and, in fact, in the Bakken, less proppant than expected is being used, especially in the Three Forks.

Any question about the Bakken wells, just click on the "50K_Wells" tag and the "75K_Wells" tag.

I digress. From Mike Filloon and the linked article:
  • Permian production continues to drive higher in the face of wide differentials and a pull back in oil prices.
  • There are several ways to play this through E&Ps and pipelines, as the pullback in oil prices is overdone and take away capacity in on the way.
  • PAA looks like a way to play the Permian pipeline build out, as it has significant exposure to the basin.
  • CXO has 640,000 acres in the Delaware and Midland basins and continues to produce a large number of monster locations.  It provides a Permian focused operator with a large inventory of locations to complete.
  • The market has been hit hard and many of the operators stock prices have suffered, but there seems to be value in the pullback. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Huge Activity In Reunion Bay -- December 11, 2018

For newbies: these are incredible wells. There are scores (maybe, hundreds) of Bakken wells drilled before 2012 that have not yet produced 50,000 bbls of oil -- after eight years of production. The three Behr wells below each produced 50,000 bbls of oil in the first 35 days or so of production, some in less than 30 days. Two of them produced almost 100,000 bbls in the first two months of production.

You will also be surprised at the relatively low amount of proppant used. Frack data will be posted later.

Meanwhile, the Alfred Old Dog wells have been added to the list of wells that will need to be followed up.

**************************************
The Post

All nine of the Alfred Old Dog wells are off line; they have been off line for the past two months. These are huge wells and would not have come off line had there not been some neighboring activity.

So, let's look at the Alfred Old Dog area.

The graphic:


The new wells to the east:
  • 30827, 1,740, WPX, Behr 19-18HT, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1, t7/18; cum 115K 10/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183130625305332664138741315953714
BAKKEN9-20183029482293753069637293274206566
BAKKEN8-20182520837208622562926359189885020
BAKKEN7-20183133593334743229742495621732684
BAKKEN6-201812001000
  • 30824, 2,649, WPX, Behr 19-18HI, Reunion Bay, middle Bakken well, t7/18; cum 147K 10/18 (note: the legal name, "HI," not "H1").
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201825141101418798231600079576414
BAKKEN9-201830311973118412670353781782314064
BAKKEN8-201831439514395817781498402814016840
BAKKEN7-201831579715776538776657401008949448
BAKKEN6-201812001000
  • 31859, 2,776, WPX, Behr 19-18HUL, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1, t7/18; cum 157K 10/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20182224106240271857224974201502141
BAKKEN9-20183032284322752781933446275322310
BAKKEN8-201831451984525942606468252680515026
BAKKEN7-20183155349552126708457341101850401


Noble Energy Partners Has Purchased Working Interests In One Bakken Drilling Unit -- Press Release -- December 11, 2018

I am, either:
  • ahead of my headlights; or, 
  • showing my ignorance.
First the press release from a reader:
Noble Energy Partners has purchased working interests and overriding royalty interests in 13 Bakken and 2 Eagle Ford Shale horizontal wells and affiliated pipeline infrastructure. 
The thirteen Bakken wells are located in Mountrail County, North Dakota and are operated by EOG Resources. The 13 wells have a combined average daily production of 1,719 BOPD and 2,110 MCFD, across 1280 acres with an average depth of 20,000 feet.  
First some "safe" comments.

It's somewhat amazing this story made the news -- obviously the company can send out a press release but it doesn't mean anyone will see it. But in this case, the press release was seen.

Why is it amazing? At least to me? We are talking about one drilling unit in the Bakken: "across 1280 acres." Twelve-hundred-eighty acres is now the standard for drilling units in the Bakken.  So, NEP invested in one drilling unit?

The press release said the company has working interests and overriding royalty interests in the 13 wells in the Bakken but does not suggest they will be an operator.

Their website suggests that NEP focus is on  investing in niche sectors in midstream and upstream oil and natural gas pipelines.

Pipelines.

I was going to write more, but my editor suggests I hold off. We'll leave it at this for now.

I think the story speaks volumes. I'll leave it at that.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+36 -- December 11, 2018 -- The "Bees" Take Control

Updates

December 21, 2018: they are reading the blog. The "three Bees take control."

Original Post

Beto is the man. Beto is the machine. Over at NBC News. MoveOn.org poll:
  • Beto: 15.6%
  • Biden: 14.9%
  • Bernie: 13.1%
I can all but guarantee Beto won't play second fiddle to either Biden or Bernie. Or Hillary. Speaking of the pelagic politician, she was nowhere to be found on the list which follows:
The three men were followed by Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., who garnered 10 percent support, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., with 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Cory Booker, D-N.J., and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were each selected by about 3 percent of members.
But this is buried at the bottom: most popular, you ask? 

"Someone else / don't know / other": 28.8%. 

********************************
Wouldn't All That Money 
Be Better Spent On PREPARING For Global Warming?

From spglobal:  
A winter storm across the lower Atlantic that dumped nearly three feet of snow in some areas of the Carolinas caused widespread power outages, but the impact on other commodities was limited.

Natural gas demand for home heating spiked amid below-normal temperatures. However, that demand lift was partially offset by lower pull for power generation, with load down almost 10% from forecasted levels.

Saturday and Sunday's average real-time on-peak prices for the Dominion Hub were higher than last Saturday and Sunday's comparable numbers -- by about $1 and about $8, respectively, to around $40/MWh.

The County "Saves" Williston's DMV Branch -- December 11, 2018

Williams County to take over operations at Williston's branch of the DMV. Link here. The bigger story seems to be why the state decided to shut down the Williston branch. Be that as it may, the county stepped in to do the right thing.

Current Export Wave Could Become A Tsunami -- RBN Energy -- December 11, 2018

Factoid: China imports every day the equivalent of the entire production of the US. Or Saudi Arabia. Or Russia. In round numbers, China imports 11 million bopd. The US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia each produce about 11 million bopd. Now this: China's crude oil imports jump to record high in November, 2018.
Chinese crude oil imports surged to an all-time high of 10.43 million bpd (barrels per day) last month, up by 8.5 percent compared to November 2017 and beating the previous record of 9.61 million bpd, which was set just a month earlier and was driven by smaller independent refiners who were rushing to fulfill their 2018 oil import quotas before they expire
As recently as 2002, China was consuming less than 5 million bopd.
Mexico: to build a new refinery --
Mexico plans to start awarding the construction of its seventh refinery as soon as March 2019, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Sunday at an event at the Dos Bocas port in Tabasco, even as the nation´s refining system is operating at its lowest levels in three decades.

Unveiling a plan for the nation’s refining system, Lopez Obrador said Mexico will invest $8 billion in the new processing facility at Dos Bocas.
Mexico’s oil production, on track for its 14th consecutive yearly decline, will rise "realistically" to 2.4 million barrels a day by 2024.
************************************
Back to the Bakken

Only one well coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, December 11, 2018:
Active rigs:

$51.6112/11/201812/11/201712/11/201612/11/201512/11/2014
Active Rigs64524065186

RBN Energy: reverse-lightering crude oil supertankers along the Gulf Coast.
There’s a reason why more than half a dozen midstream companies and joint ventures are clamoring to build deepwater loading terminals on the Gulf of Mexico: because it’s a major pain to load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) any other way. These days, the standard operating procedure for loading the vast majority of VLCCs along the Gulf Coast involves a complex, time-consuming and costly process of ship-to-ship transfers called reverse-lightering, in which smaller tankers ferry out and transfer crude to VLCCs in specified lightering areas off the coast. Today, we ponder the current dynamics for U.S. crude exports via VLCC. 
Even before the 40-year prohibition on most crude oil exports from the U.S. was lifted in December 2015, we were blogging about how an end to the export ban would help shape the landscape for U.S. crude production. In the past three years, the growth in export volumes has been stunning — from 590 Mb/d in 2016, on average, to 1.1 MMb/d last year and 1.9 MMb/d through October in 2018.
As the market looks to the immediate future, projections for rising crude production from the prolific Permian, Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK shale plays suggest that the export wave could soon look more like a tsunami, especially after a few new crude pipelines come online.