Thursday, November 29, 2018

EOG Activity In Parshall Oil Field, Section 19-154-90? -- November 29, 2018

I might come back to this one later, but right now there is an indication that neighboring wells may soon be fracked. Right now, neighboring wells are still on confidential list.

This is a great EOG well that has just come off line:
  • 17416, 1,124, EOG, Austin 16-19H, Parshall, t12/08; cum 859K 8/18; the well came off line 8/18 and remains off line as of 9/18;

EOG Has Fracked Three Austin Wells -- Still On Confidential List -- November 29, 2018

These wells were recently taken off line, and remain off line:
  • 17386, 2,205, EOG, Austin 15-17H, Parshall, t11/08; cum 725K 6/18;
  • 26324, IA/480, EOG, Austin 77-1708H, Parshall, t2/14; cum 243K 9/18; taken off line 8/18;
  • 26325, IA/343, EOG, Austin 42-1708H, Parshall, t2/14; cum 327K 9/18; taken off line 8/18;
Three wells have been recently fracked; three others not yet drilled, note the chronology in the legal name:
  • 34522, conf, EOG, Austin 424-1721H, 33-061-04178, Parshall, t--; cum- -- ; producing;
  • 34523, conf, EOG, Austin 425-1721H, 33-061-04179, Parshall, t--; cum- -- ; producing;
  • 34524, conf, EOG, Austin 426-1721H, 33-061-04180, Parshall, t--; cum- -- ; producing;
  • 34519, loc
  • 34520, loc
  • 34521, loc
The graphic:

Atmospheric CO2 -- FWIW -- October, 2018

This may be a duplicate. I don't recall if I posted the atmospheric CO2 data for October, 2018.

Link here:


From this link:

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Connecting The Dots -- Or Not

The rate of change, year-over-year, 2018-over-2017: 0.58%.

The rate of change, year-over-year, 2017-over-2016: 0.53%.

No wonder US suicides are at a 50-year peak, pushing down US longevity rates.

Enerplus' "ND Winter" Pad In Mandaree Oil Field

Updates

December 21, 2018: see this post also. But the "ND Winter" pads will be followed here.

Original Post
The wells:
  • 35800, loc, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, Mandaree,
  • 35801, loc, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree,
  • 35802, loc, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree,
  • 35803, loc, Enerplus, Blizzard 149-93-07A-12H, Mandaree, 
  • 25736, 2,347, Enerplus, Snow .... , t6/15; cum 508K 9/18; -- wow! Only 39 stages; 
  • 25735, 1,773, Enerplus, Rain ..., t6/15; cum 336K 9/18;
  • 25738, 1,946, Enerplus, Sun ..., t8/14; cum 367K 9/18;
  • 25737, 1,278, Enerplus, Wind ...., t9/14; cum 324K 9/18;
The graphic:



WTI Claws Its Way Back To $51 -- November 29, 2018

Active rigs (note: some folks suggest that there is some double-counting, and that the number of active rigs is closer to 62 than 66 but this has been going on for a couple of days now) (on another note, it is hard to believe that "185" is still showing up as the number of active rigs at one time -- only four years ago):

$51.4211/29/201811/29/201711/29/201611/29/201511/29/2014
Active Rigs66553964185

Nine new permits: pending.
  • Operators: Whiting (4); Enerplus (4); Lime Rock
  • Fields: Mandaree (Dunn); Foreman Butte (McKenzie County); Dimond (Burke)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 2-well Link pad in section 12-150-102; permits for another 2-well Link pad in section 14-150-102; Enerplus has permits for a 5-well "ND winter" pad in section 7-149-93; and, most interesting, Lime Rock has a permit for a Birdbear well in Dimond oil field, #35797, section 15-160-91;
Note: in light of the better wells we are seeing, it will be interesting to follow the Whiting Link wells. Based on the amount of (or better said, lack of) activity in the area of the Link permits/wells, I would think it would be a "tier 2" play -- CLR/Whiting/Oasis -- one of the three, I forget which -- in a recent corporate presentation said that based on their better completions, they were adding some "tier 2" locations to their core positions. This may be an example. The Foreman Butte oil field is a bit south, and a bit west of Alexander. So, for my dad and for me, when driving south from Williston and taking that big swing to the east, we would look to our right and see Foreman Butte, where the deer and the antelope play. We would also see that huge (new) truck stop, and a man's camp that might now be boarded up. At one time, it was a fairly busy man camp. Wow, that seems like a long time ago.

The graphic:


Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33530, 1,672, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-11, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 19K over 16 days which extrapolates to 36K over 30 days;
  • 33529, 2,054, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-12, Elm Tree, t10.18; cum 19K over 13 days which extrapolates to 45K over 30 days;
  • the AN-Gudbranson wells are tracked here;
Five permits renewed:
  • EOG (2): two Austin permits in Mountrail County
  • Newfield: a Sorenson Federal permit in McKenzie County
  • Whiting: an Earl permit in Williams County
  • Rimrock Oil & Gas: a Moccasin Creek permit in Dunn County

Fascinating, Fascinating Power Article From Bloomberg -- Exxon, Renewable Energy And Denmark -- The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 5, T+23 -- November 29, 2018

Updates

Later, 3:32 p.m. CT: I made a huge mistake in the original post suggesting that Exxon had the opportunity to partner with GE on a large wind farm in Texas but chose to go with a foreign company. A reader correctly pointed out that GE does not "build/manage" wind farms. GE provides components for the wind turbines. In this case, it is still possible that GE will be involved with the wind farm in Texas as a subcontractor or partner with Orsted. This was a big mistake on my part. Sorry. I stand corrected.

Original Post 

Fascinating story from Bloomberg. Excellent use of renewable energy. Exxon will build a wind farm and a solar farm to help electrify their operations in the Permian. The story is fascinating on many levels, but I was mostly interested in this one data point. This gives one an idea of how incredibly big the Permian shale sector is:
One area of the Permian, called the Delaware Basin, consumed the equivalent of 350 megawatts this summer, tripling its load from 2015. That’s enough to power about 280,000 U.S. homes. Providers say demand is likely to triple again by 2022.
Think about that: just "one" area of the Permian consumed the equivalent of 350 MW this summer, tripling its load from 2015; enough to power almost 300,000 US homes; and it is likely that electricity demand will triple again by 2022.

Do I need to repeat that? Nah, but I will archive the article.

Update: the rest of this post is "off-base" (see update above).

What's the biggest takeaway from the article?

This link will give you a clue.
GE to focus on aviation, power and renewable energy. ... GE aims to strengthen its balance sheet by reducing Industrial net debt by about USD 25 billion (EUR 21.4bn) by 2020. The company is continuing with efforts to shrink GE Capital and targets sales of USD 25 billion in energy and industrial finance assets by 2020 -- June 26, 2018.
Exxon partnered with a Danish company to provide its electricity power needs. Exxon did not partner with GE. Say what? Under 12-year agreements with Denmark’s Orsted, Exxon will buy 500 megawatts of wind and solar power in the Permian Basin, the fastest growing U.S. oil field. It is the largest ever renewable power contract signed by an oil company. Terms weren’t disclosed.
I think that's the biggest takeaway from this article. Partnering with a Danish company, not an American company.

It says a lot about what a company like Exxon thinks of GE right now. 

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Washington State Refinery With Ties To Bakken -- New Owners

From MarketWatch, data points:
  • the US Oil & Refining Co with a 42,000 bpd refinery in Tacoma, WA, sold to Par Pacific Holding
  • $358 million
  • entire deal connects existing assets in Hawaii, Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies to create an integrated downstream network
  • cites potential ties to Canadian and Bakken crude oil
  • in addition to refinery:
    • a marine terminal
    • a unit train-capable rail loading terminal
    • 2.9 million bbls of refined product and crude oil storage
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Bad Timing?

Marc Lamont Hill was fired by Fox News back in 2007.

Apparently he's been fired again, today by CNN. The story does not appear to have been published in The Washington Post  based on a google search but conservative outlets are posting the story.

It was probably "the straw that broke the camel's back" as they say, but it seems the firing comes at an interesting moment, just as Jim Acosta arrives back at his post in the White House press pool.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 4, T+23 -- November 29, 2018

Re-posting. Comments later. I'm going Christmas shopping.

Natural gas: weekly fill rate:


The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+23 -- November 29, 2018

UN on climate change:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” 
Where did that come from? I thought you would never ask. See below.

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Other Stuff
Jobs, link here:
  • prior: 224K 
  • forecast: 220K
  • actual: 234K
  • 4-week moving average: 223.25K
Natural gas: weekly fill rate -- pending:

Theft: local news is reporting theft of $1,000-tires/wheels off pick-up trucks. Professionals -- at night -- hydraulic drill lifts truck completely off the ground; wheels with/without locked hub nuts removed in minutes; trucks left on blocks/bricks. This is what irritates me. This type of crime could be stopped "overnight." Why doesn't the government mandate RIFD GPS chips in anything of value? Period. Dot. Or better yet, let the insurance companies do this. Huge drop in premiums/deductibles if anything of value has RIFD GPS chips embedded. This is not rocket science. Drives me nuts. Likewise, anyone traveling to Mexico needs to have one of these chips embedded. We do it for our pets but not ourselves.#MeToo people need to have chips with recording devices embedded before a) going to college; b) going to Washington, DC, to work as interns; c) going to Hollywood to work for anyone; d) going to Central Park in NYC. Until one gets an embedded chip, a concealed handgun might be a good alternative. Wow, how did I end up here?

Meanwhile: I have a copyright on decals to place on vehicles that say: "This vehicle/wheels protected with RIFD/GPS chips." $4.00 apiece. Applied on vehicle above each wheel.

*********************************
UN On Climate Change 

From Jim Ring:

Here is the last paragraph in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 14, Section 14.2.2.2:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.
This seems fairly easy to read. Pretty easy English. Eighth grade English.

This information was not included in the Summary Report for Policymakers given to the press and public.

If the climate is indeed a coupled non-linear chaotic system (who can doubt the IPCC?) then there is no rational or scientific basis to make a definitive statement about a future state of the climate.

At this point the coupled non-linear chaotic nature of the climate makes scientific observations academically interesting but individually they have no relevance in predicting the future state of the climate. The climate is a system, which means the relationships among these observations are what is important, not the observations themselves.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+23 -- November 29, 2018

So much for Hubbert's peak oil theory. See the breathless report at oilprice. Will wiki ever update that entry? From EIA today:


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Doing More With Less

 From Bloomberg: in 2019, US shale operators will spend less and produce more. 
Companies such as Continental Resources Inc., Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Devon Energy Corp. generated substantial free-cash flow in the quarter while still clocking production growth well into the double digits. EOG Resources Inc. made more than $1 billion in the period, putting it in the same league as veteran majors such as Italy’s Eni SpA and ConocoPhillips.
“At a $65 to $70 price deck we had a lot of free cash flow being forecasted but at these levels all that free cash flow is gone,” said Dane Gregoris, senior vice president at RS Energy Group.
Devon, Occidental and Anadarko were among companies that used excess cash to buy back shares this year, while others such as EOG hiked dividends.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Bad Hair Day And Flower Arranging 101


A Bakken Filler Before The Stories I Really Wanted To Post -- November 29, 2018

NDIC regulators have given unanimous approval for Kinder Morgan to expand the Roosevelt Gas plant from 50 million cfpd to 200 million cfpd. The plant is located 7.5 miles south of Watford City. By the time the plant is completed, Watford City is growing so quickly that the plant my be less than 7.5 miles from the city -- just saying.

From the blog back on September 8, 2018:
This story was posted earlier, but for those who missed it the first time, from August 8, 2018, The Bismarck Tribune:

  • to expand the Roosevelt Gas Plant in McKenzie County by 150 million cubic feet per day
  • increasing the capacity to process up to 200 million cubic feet per day
Besides the obvious -- more natural gas processing capacity -- but more importantly, it needs drillers can increased oil production.

For newbies, crude oil production in North Dakota is constrained by:
  • the price of oil; demand for light oil
  • takeaway capacity (not much of an issue now that the DAPL is flowing)
  • flaring (a big issue)
  • workforce: competition with the Permian
 ************************************
Getting Ready For Christmas

Her mother said Sophia was moving the nutcracker's jaw for about 20 minutes (?) and the two of them were having a conversation about Christmas. You can see Sophia's hand in the back moving the "lever" and in the front you can barely see the king's beard move up and down.

Talking To A Nutcracker

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The Book Page

I can't wait to get into this book: Math With Bad Drawings, Illuminating the Ideas That Shape Our Reality, Ben Orlin, c. 2018.

I'm read some of it; paged through most of it. Intriguing. Not quite sure what to make of it.

*****************************
The Movie Page

I wish I had the stamina for a 24-hour movie binge. TCM was highlighting Jane Russell yesterday/overnight -- 24 hours. I caught two movies: The Outlaw and This Kind of Girl.

Holy mackerel. I can see why Howard Hughes had trouble getting The Outlaw past the censors in 1941. Now that I've seen it, I would watch it again.

Jane Russell's history is very interesting beginning with her birth in Bemidji, Minnesota. I never knew. From wiki:
Russell married three times, adopted three children, and in 1955 founded Waif, the first international adoption program. She received several accolades for her achievements in films, including having her hand and footprints immortalized in the forecourt of Grauman's Chinese Theatre, and having a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
In between the movies last night, the TCM host talked about the movie, Jane Russell, Howard Hughes, and RKO.

The references to RKO, of course, jumped out at me because of the references to this movie production company in Rocky Horror Picture Show. 

After The Outlaw, an even better movie, This Kind of Girl. Wow, talk about a movie that meets all the criteria for a film noir. From wiki:
A style or genre of cinematographic film marked by a mood of pessimism, fatalism, and menace. The term was originally applied (by a group of French critics) to American thriller or detective films made in the period 1944–54 and to the work of directors such as Orson Welles, Fritz Lang, and Billy Wilder.
Vincent Price stole the show. If you haven't seen this movie, it's worth watching just to see him (Vincent Price) and ... Mr Magoo.   

By the way, this is why 3-D and AR will bring back the old movies. From The Baltimore Sun:
As readers of this blog know, Russell's allure has never been forgotten by Baltimore movie-lovers. Sun entertainment writer and Maryland Film Festival 3-D guru Chris Kaltenbach told me a year ago that his ideal  3-D presentation would be to "bring the Jane Russell 1954 3-D extravaganza 'The French Line' to Baltimore. Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?"
Also, Martin Hickes, In Praise of Jane Russell. In the clip below, Ms Russell is #27 of 50. It's hard to believe but my wife says she met in person one of the "classic beauties of Hollywood," and, in person, she says, she was even more beautiful than in her pictures. I find that amazing. And uplifting. And wonderful. The toughest part of the Academy Awards show -- when I used to watch many years ago -- was the In Memoriam,


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Music and Hollywood Glamour

Wow, the clip above takes me back to my coming of age years in southern California. Wow, "I had it lucky," as they say.  

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+23 -- November 29, 2018 -- Mexico To Drill 40 Onshore Conventional Wells For $1.47 Billion

From Ice Age: "mini-ice-age" in a matter of months?  Probably not. I guess it depends on how "matter of months" is defined. For the archives.

From twitter this morning:

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New England Natural Gas Hookups Update

I had forgotten all about this but the moratorium on new natural gas hookups in Boston and the eastern half of Massachusetts continues. Most of the stories are behind a paywall but if interested google boston moratorium on natural gas hookups update. The ban is effectively "destroying" development in eastern Massachusetts, some say. The moratorium is the result of devastating natural gas explosions earlier this year. MarcellusDrilling calls this a "police state" run amok and I thought my blog was a bit bombastic at times.

*********************************
Canadian Update

Canadian crude oil output continues to grow despite all its problems -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • daily average output "will" average about 4.59 million bopd
  • 22,000 bopd more than forecast
  • this despite two big producers curtailing production by about 160,000 bopd
Okay, folks this is the lede for that story:
Canada’s lingering crude glut isn’t hindering the country’s growing oil output, according to the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast.
Now this line in the second paragraph:
The raised production outlook comes even as pipeline bottlenecks have driven Canadian crude prices to record lows and prompted some producers, including Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Athabasca Oil Corp., to reduce output by about 160,000 barrels a day, according to estimates by TD Securities Inc.
It's hard for me to accept the writers' premise when they say "Canada's lingering crude glut isn't hindering the country's growing oil output."

It certainly appears that by their own reporting the glut is "hindering" at least 160,000 bopd from reaching the market.

Whatever.
**********************************
Mexico

Yesterday from the blog:
From Platts:
  • Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
  • production to peak at 80,000 beopd
  • development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.

The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boepd in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.

750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.

I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."

And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."
So, yesterday, Platts says Pemex "doubled its estimate for the Ixachi oil field, putting oil and gas reserves at 750 million boe.

Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
  • the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
  • the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
  • the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
  • development costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40 wells = $36,750,000 / well 
  • this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
  • Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
Screenshot from the article:

WTI Drops Below $50 -- November 29, 2018

WTI: just below $50 overnight, but now back to $50.68.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, November 29, 2018:
  • 34590, 2,820, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HIL, four sections, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 7.9 million lbs, t9/18; cum 33K after 14 days which extrapolates to 69,810 bbls over 30 days;
  • 34322, 588, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-8H, Squires, 60 stages; 8 million lbs, t6/18; cum 51K 9/18; 
  • 33697, 1,470, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 7B, Sanish, 50 stages, 10 million lbs sand and ceramic, t6/18; cum 95K in less than four months;
  • 30544, 1,129, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-4-26A-35-7H, Antelope-Sanish, Three Forks B1, 55 stages; 14.5 million lbs, t6/18; cum 30K constrained;

Active rigs: note -- at least two readers suggest there is some double-counting on a couple of rigs, suggesting that the active number of rigs may be closer to 62 than 66 --

$50.1311/29/201811/29/201711/29/201611/29/201511/29/2014
Active Rigs66553964185

RBN Energy: announces a new "drill-down" report on proposed US crude oil export terminals.
This summer and fall, more than a half dozen companies and midstream joint ventures have announced plans for new deepwater export terminals along the Gulf Coast that — if all built — would have the capacity to load and send out more than 10 MMb/d, which is notable because the U.S. Lower 48 currently produces 11.2 MMb/d. Most of these projects won’t get built, of course — export volumes may well continue rising, and the economics of fully loading VLCCs at deepwater ports are compelling, but even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that only one or two of these new terminals will be needed through the early 2020s. So, there’s a fierce competition on among developers to advance their VLCC-ready export projects to Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) first. Today, we discuss highlights from its most recent analysis of deepwater crude export terminals as well as the export growth and tanker-loading economics that are driving the project-development frenzy.
So far in 2018, the U.S. has exported more than 524 million barrels of crude oil and export volumes — lately hovering around the 1.8 MMb/d mark — are likely to continue increasing next year and in 2020. The export boom is made possible by the lifting of the ban on most U.S. crude exports in December 2015 and is driven by rising production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, SCOOP/STACK and other major plays. U.S. crude production has reached 11.7 MMb/d — all but 500 Mb/d of it in the Lower 48 — and RBN forecasts that output will rise another 500 Mb/d by April 2019. These production gains are occurring despite pipeline takeaway constraints out of the Permian, and may well accelerate in late 2019 and early 2020 as new pipeline capacity comes online, eliminating bottlenecks between West Texas and the Gulf Coast.