Thursday, November 22, 2018

Bakken 2.5 -- Re-Fracks -- November 22, 2018

November 22, 2018: a reminder that in 2017 QEP was starting to re-frack wells in Heart Butte.

Activity On The Slawson Stallion Pad In Big Bend? -- November 2018

Back in May, 2018, I posted this note:
20203, not yet fracked; should be? Slawson, Stallion, cum 429K 5/18;
Tonight I see there are five wells on that pad; two of them have been producing for quite some time; three are confidential, but the producing wells have been taken off line and one of the wells on the confidential list has a rig on site, according to the NDIC map, suggesting that "something is going on."  
The wells:
  • 20204, off line as of 9/18, 743, Slawson, Zephyr 2-36H, Big Bend, t1/12; cum 227K 9/18;
  • 35204, conf, Slawson, Stallion 8-1-12TF2H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 20203, off line as of 9/18, 833, Slawson, Stallion 2-1-12H, Big Bend, t1/12; cum 439K 9/18;
  • 35205, rig-on-site, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5FLTFH, no production data,
  • 35206, conf, Slawson, Stallion Federal 1 SLH, no production data,

Thanksgiving, 2018 -- Random Update Of A CLR Well With Jump In Production

There are several wells in this area that all show nice jumps in production. This is a typical example:

The well:
  • 19934, 877, CLR, Bailey 3-24H, Pershing, t12/11; cum 229K 9/18;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018275693561051081124993911517
BAKKEN8-201818370636453687663516374788
BAKKEN7-201830101971050282871753266616490
BAKKEN6-20182691778821738018488117516456
BAKKEN5-201827990598081042716629142612368
BAKKEN4-20181670131000100
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20171810921388545525952590
BAKKEN11-20173021001974909869686960
BAKKEN10-2017231112110656643673396971
BAKKEN9-201730216321851034809568991196
BAKKEN8-20172920852242106074577202255
BAKKEN7-201731186218171417669866980
 
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Thanksgiving Dinner
Lamb dinner.

Preparation at this post.


Nothing New Under The Sun -- November 22, 2018

The article at the link below was from November 30, 2014. 

We've seen this movie before: The [London] Telegraph (link here).
Saudis risk playing with fire in shale-price showdown as crude crashes A deep slump in prices might heighten geostrategic turmoil across the Middle East
Saudi Arabia and the core Opec states are taking an immense political gamble by letting crude oil prices crash to $66 a barrel, if their aim is to shake out the weakest shale producers in the US. A deep slump in prices might equally heighten geostrategic turmoil across the broader Middle East and boomerang against the Gulf’s petro-sheikhdoms before it inflicts a knock-out blow on US rivals.
Caliphate leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has already opened a “second front” in North Africa, targeting Algeria and Libya – two states that live off energy exports – as well as Egypt and the Sahel as far as northern Nigeria.
“The resilience of US shale may prove greater than the resilience of Opec,” said Alistair Newton, head of political risk at Nomura.
Chris Skrebowski, former editor of Petroleum Review, said the Saudis want to cut the annual growth rate of US shale output from 1m barrels per day (bpd) to 500,000 bpd to bring the market closer to balance.
“They want to unnerve the shale oil model and undermine financial confidence, but they won’t stop the growth altogether,” he said.
There is no question that the US has entirely changed the global energy landscape and poses an existential threat to Opec. America has cut its net oil imports by 8.7m bpd since 2006, equal to the combined oil exports of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
The country had a trade deficit of $354bn in oil and gas as recently as 2011. Citigroup said this will return to balance by 2018, one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in modern economic history.
“When it comes to crude and other hydrocarbons, the US is bursting at the seams,” said Edward Morse, Citigroup’s commodities chief. “This situation is unlikely to stop, even if prevailing prices for oil fall significantly. The US should become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products combined by 2019, if not 2018.”
From the EIA, an explanation.

US crude oil production and imports.

Net oil and gas exporter in five years. Article written February 11, 2018. Same thing, from CNBC/Department of Energy.

Texas Gulf coast exports more oil than it imports for the first time, August 23, 2018.

The US to be the world's biggest exporter of oil, May 6, 2018.

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The Movie Page

If you are into this kind of movie, The Girl in the Spider's Web, is incredibly good. Quick notes.

It took me about "half the movie" before I was able to "warm up" to the new Blomqvist and Lisbeth.

This is a sequel, but a completely different story line.

The first in the series, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, had a much, much better story line, but the sequel is much, much better with the gadgetry and giving more depth/time to Lisbeth and her one-man tech support team.

Some very, very clever devices in the sequel; much better than the first movie.

In the first movie, both Lisbeth and Blomqvist were 3-dimensional; I had empathy for both. In the sequel, no chemistry between the characters and me. Nor did I see any chemistry between Lisbeth and Blomqvist in the second movie.

I was never on the "edge of my seat" watching the sequel; one knew who would be standing at the end of the movie; we simply watched to see "how" it would end. 

The Girl in the Spider's Web makes Tom Cruise/Mission Impossible series look like kid's play. Lisbeth and her one-man tech support team easily, easily out-cruises Tom Cruise and his "army" of support.

No disguises of note in the sequel; disguises in the first Girl were superb.

Gadgetry in the sequel made the gadgetry in a James Bond look like a high school science project.

No humor in either Tattoo or Spider's Web.

Much more eroticism in the first movie; no eroticism in the second movie that I can recall.

You can watch the sequel without seeing the first, but I would not recommend it.

One huge fault: why did Lisbeth not kill her nemesis/her most violent adversary when she had the chance? Yes, I know "the movie" needed him, but Lisbeth did not.

Overall, I think both the original Lisbeth and the original Blomqvist were much, much better; one might argue about Blomqvist, but no argument about Lisbeth. The original actress set the bar. It was not raised in this movie. 

Sloop John B, The Fendertones
 
Scott Totten, musical director of The Beach Boys is one of the vocalists. The video was posted back in 2014.

Random Update Of Some Great EOG Wells In Clarks Creek -- November 22, 2018

See this post for background.

32800, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 155-0706H, Clarks Creek, fracked 4/25/2018 - 6/9/2018; 7.8 million gallons water; 83% water by mass; -- first production data (107,069 MCF = 17,841 + 88122 = 105,963 boe in one month):producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20183768278817
8-201866847111653
7-201888122107069
6-201860268203

32800, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 24-0706H, Clarks Creek, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20184336281614
8-201870280117454
7-20185450966675

32797, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 72-0706H, Clarks Creek, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20184166098744
8-20185780296646
7-20185457064555

32797, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 107-0706H, Clarks Creek, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20184142471209
8-20182575240876
7-20185277664059

32797, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 108-0706H, Clarks Creek, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20182213439311
8-20182934047202
7-20184200647311
6-201827323998

The graphics:


Random Update Of Two EOG Clarks Creek Wells -- November 22, 2018

#20886 runs south.

#20887 runs north. 

Well, isn't this interesting! Look at this unexpected jump in production for this well (see this post for explanation):
  • 20887, 1,455, EOG, Clarks Creek 13-1806H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 316K 9/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018301417014228179832119320451424
BAKKEN8-201818935492251549512965115711215
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-201800140000
BAKKEN5-2018159669871043201219042
BAKKEN4-2018302605261326246308605216
BAKKEN3-201831271427493805693966838
BAKKEN2-201828256525489726247601310
BAKKEN1-201831287428737767172689133
BAKKEN12-201731335633605439040874748
BAKKEN11-201730419341566838863857251

I track the Clarks Creek wells here.

Its sister well had a jump in production last year:
  • 20886, 317, EOG, Clarks Creek 101-1819H, Clarks Creek, t4/12; cum 396K 9/18;
BAKKEN11-2017304828480823697067677946
BAKKEN10-20173153855392343473906768372
BAKKEN9-20173061896228556175516876433
BAKKEN8-201731109361092592221494213885813
BAKKEN7-2017146446635911133927491780
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-2017001580000
BAKKEN12-20161816911688410257924370
BAKKEN11-20163021922332768456243200
BAKKEN10-20163130972971476508348330

The graphic:



Unexpected Surge On A Holiday -- ISO New England -- November 22, 2018

Updates

November 23, 2018, 10:23 p.m. Central Time: coal percentage up to 8%.

Later, 8:40 p.m. Central Time: as natural gas starts to decline, coal up to 7%.


Later, 6:00 p.m. Central Time: it looks like ISO New England maxed out on available natural gas today. Note the surge in hydroelectric demand -- this will be spot price for energy from Canada. Also, this is the greatest percent of electricity from coal I've seen this autumn: 6%. Generally coal runs about 2%; the max has been 4% for the most part, so 6% catches my eye.  


Original Post
 
Link here. There must be an Arctic blast moving through.




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The Book Page

The book for the day: The Greater Journey: Americans in Paris, David McCullough, c. 2011.

1830s.

Thomas Jefferson, John Adams had both died in 1826. Lafayette -- yes, that Lafayette -- was taking his swan song tour of America, returning as a hero. Meanwhile, American writers and painters were streaming to Paris.

No regular passenger vessels at the beginning. Folks booked passage on a packet -- a cargo ship that took passengers.

Most were brigs: two-masted square riggers.

Alexis de Tocqueville: traveled in the opposite direction; coming to America in 1831; he had never spoken to an American in his life; he had never seen the sea -- until this voyage.

Crossing took about 30 days.

Number of passengers on a packet ship ranged from one to thirty.

Main port, arrival in France: Le Havre.

Le Havre to Paris: 110 miles.

Most memorable on the way to Paris: a stop at Rouen, halfway between Le Havre and Paris. Nice description of the cathedral, page 22.

Chapter Two: Paris.

And the notes will continue elsewhere.