Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Thank You, Mr Trump -- November 13, 2018

This is really quite remarkable how fast this happened.

Well played, Mr Trump.


Energy: Has Any Politician Ever Been More Wrong Than Barack Obama Was About U.S. Oil Production And Energy Independence? A Resounding "NO!" -- IEA, IBD, And Anyone Else Paying Attention -- November 13, 2018

I haven't read this article yet -- too busy with family commitments, but it looks like a great article. If it says what I think it's going to say, I will certainly come back and post comments.

For now, enjoy. The link was sent to me be a reader. Much appreciated.

Link here to Investor's Business Daily.

Energy: Has any politician ever been more wrong than Barack Obama was about U.S. oil production and energy independence? Based on the latest report from the International Energy Agency, the answer is unequivocally no.


The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+8 -- November 13, 2018

Mideast: some time ago I said that "Khashoggi" changed everything in the Mideast. For one thing, President Trump now has almost "unlimited" leverage over the Crown Prince (MbS) of Saudi Arabia.
Interestingly enough, Scott Adams had a special Mideast podcast this afternoon. From where did he start his "Mideast analysis"? Yup, with Khashoggi.

Unfortunately Scott Adams comes to a ridiculous conclusion -- Scott Adams may understand "persuasion," but he does not understand the Mideast. None of us do, but at least we know that we don't understand it.
Daycare: good intentions gone awry. From The Bismarck Tribune, new daycare providers cannot begin work until 'fingerprint screen is complete." At least that's what critics say: a bad law. In fact, law enforcement canget answers back in less than 24 hours. Sounds like something is wrong when it takes a month for a day care employer to get fingerprint results back. Sounds like a job for Amazon cloud!

NYC and DC: speaking of Amazon, apparently it's being reported that Amazon will build its two new headquarters in NYC and in "northern Virginia" -- a euphemism for Washington, DC -- down the street from The Washington Post, no doubt.

Apple: a year or so ago, all indications were that Apple, Inc. was going to start increasing dividends for its shareholders. That did not happen. Share buybacks, yes, but not increasing dividends. What's up? This is about the same time that Apple, Inc, made the decision to quit providing information on number of units sold. Connecting the dots. Which famous investor does not like paying dividends? Which famous investor talks a lot but doesn't give much information out about specifics? Which famous investor recently invested heavily in Apple, Inc? Ah, yes, Not rocket science.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

MRO Reporting Staggering Wells In Reunion Bay -- Absolutely Staggering -- November 13, 2018

MRO reports a well today with an IP of 9,061 bbls of crude oil. Based on other wells in the area (see specifically #32975 and #32970 below) one can expect >100,000 bbls over the first full 30 days. For newbies, some Bakken wells drilled back in 2007 still haven't produced 100,000 bbls.

Subject to change, some weeks ago I suggested that the "large Bakken operator of the year, 2018" will be MRO but with these wells and it being, now, November, it's going to be difficult to see another large operator beat out MRO for this honor.

Records: at FAQs, see question #9 for record IPs.

Today, in the Bakken there was one producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 32973, 9,061, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 58K over 15 days; extrapolates to 117K over 30 days; sundry forms not yet scanned in; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; 
Other wells in the immediate area:
  • 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TF, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 426K 7/19;
  • 32974, dry, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H, Reunion Bay, no production data;

  • 19446, IA/24, MRO, TAT USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, off-line as of 10/17; remains off line 7/19;

  • 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs; Antelope, t8/18; cum 353K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-201830656846467371297100404096629
SANISH8-20181335492352533453037273035249
  • 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, 57 stages; 12.9 million lbs, t8/18; cum 380K 7/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN9-20182754242546404324871743068143
    BAKKEN8-20181039659387383258948655046071
  • 32972, 8,887, MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 371K 7/19;
    oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN9-2018217432374020775701082060103255
    BAKKEN8-201851776517352100051687701572

  • 34484, 6,504, MRO, Yellowface USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 333K 7/19; extrapolates to 81,700 bbls in 30 days;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN9-20182259992594145653863182059228

The graphic:

***************************************
A Photo For The Granddaughters

Record IPs In The Bakken

For FAQs, go to this link; but FAQ #9 will no longer be updated there. Updates will be posted here.

9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? I believe this well still holds the record (6/19):
  • 32525, 4,984, MRO, Kermit USA 14-9H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/17; cum393K 6/19; that's almost 400K in less than two years; early production; see this link;
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days;   
OTHERS / Pretty Much Chronological
Even though we have the record (above) "record" IPs will continue to be reported.
  • August 5, 2019 -- see these MRO wells in Reunion Bay; may have been previously posted;
  • July 18, 2019 -- on this date MRO reported the following wells; note #35323:
    • 34859, 4,748, MRO, Rochelle USA 21-17TFH
    • 34862, 6,026, MRO, Turkey Feet USA 41-17TFH,
    • 34861, 5,243, MRO, Atkinson USA 31-17TFH
    • 34860, 7,889, MRO, Bruhn USA 21-17H, 
    • 35323, 9,614, MRO, Driftwood USA 41-17H, 
    • 34858, 4,866, MRO, Miriam USA 11-17H,
  • June 29, 2019 
  • June 5, 2019
    • 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 178K in 41 days; TD: 25,490 feet;139,068 bbls in 29 cays, 4/19: see this post;
  • June 5, 2019; see this post;
    • 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 372K 4/19; TD: 23,722 feet;
  • May 30, 2019
    • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days; 
  • May 13, 2019
    • 34045, 7,152, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, t3/19; cum 24K 6 days; see this post;
  • February 7, 2019
  • February 4, 2019
    • 33636, 4,405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum --
    • 33637 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 27K over 8 days, extrapolates to 103,691 bbls/month;
    • 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 34K over 14 days, extraplates to 72,707 bbls/month
  • February 1, 2019
    • 34428, 7,993, MRO, Klaus 11-28H, runs south, API: 33-025-03422, 9.3 million gallons; 89% water by mass; Bailey, t12/18; cum --; tracked here; (#23980, #17883 -- both off-line)
  • January 11, 2019
    • 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, 4 sections, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; t7/18; cum 294K 11/18; a staggering well;
  • January 4, 2019
    • 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
    • 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
      #17999; #17374;
    • 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
    • 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --
  • November 27, 2018
    • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Day, t9/18; cum 172K 11/18;
    • 33942, 6,516, MRO, McDonald USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 78K 11/18;
    • 33941, 6,943, MRO, Rue USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04120, t10/18; cum 63K 10/18:
    • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sybyl USA 34-19TFH, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1, only 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs, 33-061-04122, t918; cum 118K 10/18; years ago Lynn Helms said TF wells would be most likely be better than middle Bakken wells.
  • November 21, 2018: MRO wells in Reunion County; incredible IPs
  • November 20, 2018: 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 305K 9/18;
  • November 20, 2018: 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 317K 9/18;  
  • November 20, 2018: 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 292K 9/18; see this post;
  • 32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Three Forks B2, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 152K 11/18; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; see this post with production profile;
October 16, 2018: 32972, 8,887, MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, fracked 6/25/2018 -- 7/9/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight 11% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;
September 12, 2018: 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/9/18 - 7/25/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight12% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;
August 9, 2018: a number of MRO wells in Bailey oil field with huge IPs.

August 2, 2018: MRO with an IP of 7,448 -- Reunion Bay; see this post.
August 1, 2018: still on confidential, but for first full month of production, 95,959 bbls of oil; #30541, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope; see this post;
June 29, 2018: Whiting, #33120 and #33121, with 70K+ and 80K+ in first unconstrined month;
May 3, 2018: Marathon, #33493, 8,160, MRO, Mark USA 11-1H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t4/18; cum -- 
May 2, 2018: Marathon -- a number of records, it appears
April 18, 2018:
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07958; 9.4 million gallons; 84%, t3/18; cum --
December 31, 2017:
  • 33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, huge well; if this is not a typo, could be a new record: 83,607 bbls in the first full month
December 22, 2017:
  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --
From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.
From a November 11, 2014, post (see also the November 25, 2014, post, same subject); The first well, in the Middle Bakken formation, was completed with 94 stages and was flowing 7,120 BOE/d on October 10, 2014, according to the operator. When the well was completed, it established a world record for number of stages in a single well.
Soon after, an offset well in the Upper Three Forks formation was completed with 104 stages. This well was flowing 7,824 BOE/d on October 11, 2014. This was a hybrid completion comprising 97 NCS GripShift cemented casing sleeves, with seven NCS BallShift cemented ball-drop sleeves in the lower section of the well. In both wells, all stages were successfully fractured.
More to follow: in 2Q14 earnings report, WLL: Tarpon Well Completed in 2nd Bench of Three Forks Flowing 6,071 boepd. Not a record in the Bakken -- see Statoil's #23992. But still, this is huge for the second bench.
Statoil reported an IP of 5,417 on September 26, 2013: #23992, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks oil field. Based on its IP for natural gas (9,663), this well had an IP of 7,083 boepd
Statoil reported an IP of 5,387 on July 19, 2013: #23387, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks oil field. This might be a new record (this is the IP for crude oil only).
The initial production of any well, self-reported by the producer, is becoming less meaningful over time. Having said that, it looks like the record IP for a Bakken well is now 5,200a Newfield well (July, 2011): 18691, 5,200, NFX, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, Westberg, Bakken.
Statoil reported on July 10, 2013: 23385, 5,070, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks, t6/13; cum -- ; 7 days to drill the lateral; I did not see completion data; 31 swell packers planned; 
Two earlier wells: a Whiting well which had an IP of 4,761 boepd: file #17612, 4,761 boepd IP, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Mountrail County, Sanish field.  This is still current as of February 20, 2010. Since then, BEXP claims to have set a record with the Sorenson 29-32 1-H, #18654, with a 24-hour flowback of 5,133 bopd. However, the NDIC reported an IP of 2,944. BEXP also reported the Jack Cvancara 19-18 #1H (this site is down) in the Ross project area with a 24-hour flowback of 5,035.
New record in the Bakken, November 3, 2011The Tarpon Federal 21-4H is a Whiting  Petroleum operated well and had a 24-hour initial production (IP) rate of 7,009 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), setting a new Williston Basin record for a Bakken well.
Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.

WTI Trades Below $55.50 -- Meeting Trump's Goal To Bring Down The Price Of Oil, Gasoline -- November 13, 2018

Bakken operators hedged through 2019 are going to make a killing. Others? Hard to say; depends on how long this will last and how much farther WTI will fall. CLR does not hedge. Most others do.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Active rigs:

$55.28🙈11/13/201811/13/201711/13/201611/13/201511/13/2014
Active Rigs65543864188

Three new permits:
  • Operators: Newfield (2); True Oil
  • Fields: Pembroke (McKenzie), Red Wing Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: True Oils Red Wing Creek permit targets the Madison formation; 
Ten permits renewed:
  • CLR (7): five Jack permits in Dunn County; and two Sacramento permits in Williams County
  • QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester: an STR1 permit in Burke County
Two permits canceled:
  • Resource Erngy Can-Am: a Leona permit and a Mathilda permit, both in Divide County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 32973, 9,061, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 58K over 15 days; extrapolates to 117K over 30 days; sundry forms not yet scanned in; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight;

Remember The Service Station "Gasoline Wars" In The 1950s? Now, Crude Oil Price Wars On A Global Scale-- November 13, 2018

Who's loving this? China. The country will buy as much as they can as fast as they can. They will be kicking themselves that they haven't built more storage.

From oilprice:


Global crude oil price war.

But is anyone paying attention?


Both from oilprice. I guess it all depends on what your definition of a "cliff" is. LOL.


That "falling off a cliff" article is linked here. It was posted November 12 -- yesterday. Amazing how fast oilprice took down that article and headline. It was one of the few articles I actually read at oilprice from beginning to end. It did not give me any comfort. Certainly no reason to feel bullish on oil right now. But then again, that's just me. This is not an investment site. [Update: I see oilprice has re-posted the "cliff" story.]

Cry me a river:

Mad Dogs and Englishmen

WTI Continues To Plunge; Drops Another 4%; Now Below $57.50 -- API US Crude Oil Inventory Data Out Later Today -- November 13, 2018 -- Obama Had His "War On Coal"; Trump Has His "War On Oil"

This is just one example of many during the period between 2014 and 2017 when Saudi Arabia tried to kill US fracking by flooding the market with oil:




It will be interesting to see if they try again.

The slump in oil prices, however, was due to "bait and switch" this time -- by President Trump. More on that later but the bottom line: the low gasoline prices that Americans are enjoying right now are 100% due to actions by President Trump.

Making America great again.

OPEC forecast: just released. Look at how fast things are changing. Last month, OPEC forecast non-OPEC growth to be 2.2 million bopd in 2019; this month -- just one month later -- OPEC predicts non-OPEC growth to be 2.3 million bopd in 2019:
With U.S. production alone estimated to have hit 11.6 million bpd earlier this month, it’s no wonder OPEC sees the United States as the biggest driver behind non-OPEC supply growth, which it sees this year at 2.31 million bpd. This is 90,000 bpd more than what OPEC forecast a month earlier, and will be also helped by higher production in Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
Comment: I remember folks writing me several years ago suggesting that by now (2020) the world would be oil-short because no deepwater drilling was being done. This must be driving the "peak-oil"crowd nuts.
Also interesting: OPEC still doesn't know how to model shale production. It is very, very different than what they are used to when modeling conventional oil.
*********************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.45😧11/13/201811/13/201711/13/201611/13/201511/13/2014
Active Rigs65543864188

Experts Back In 2011: "There Could Be A 10-Million-BOPD Shortage By 2015"; Northwest Passage Will Be Ice-Free By 2015 -- November 13, 2018

Updates

November 14, 2018: either no one caught it or no one bothered to report it but there's no way the US is going to be producing 50 million bopd by 2025 -- see WSJ headline below. This is the correct headline:


Original Post 

Link here.
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
Note: that was back in 2011.

Link here.


Imagine that: " ... as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015."

10 million bbl/day shortage. What were they smoking? Whatever it was, it probably wasn't even legal.

Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2025.

Fast forward to November 13, 2018.

From The WSJ today: the IEA predicts that the US will produce half of global oil and natural gas output by 2025 -- that could happen under President Trump's second term. IEA says growth in American production will be primarily driven by fracking. 

That in bold/red is a "cut/paste" from the WSJ. Here's the screenshot.
Huge glaring error in the headline. Free subscription to the blog for one year for first reader to note the huge glaring error. And this in the WSJ. Embarrassing. It will be interesting to see if they correct it. I bet they don't.

Memo to self: notes to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

From the linked article:
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s.
“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations on energy trends. “By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States.”
The article is archived

Key point in that WSJ article was not mentioned. Saudi Arabia will be a net importer oil oil by 2040.

Saudi's foreign exchange reserves as of September, 2018, most recent available:


Oasis Reports Two Huge Wells -- November 13, 2018 -- Eleven Wells Come Off Confidential List -- Seven Of Them Are DUCs

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday, Monday, over the weekend (NDIC was closed Monday; Veterans Day observance):

Tuesday, November 13, 2018:
  • 34844, 198, BR, Rink 8-1-5 MBH-R, Pershing, t9/18; cum --: for newbies, this is a typical IP for a BR well; it will be a nice well;
  • 34366, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36AXD, Siverston, no production data, 
  • 34028, 286, NP Resources, Trotter State 145-102-23-14-2H, Cinnamon Creek, a nice well; about 11K per month for three consecutive months; t6/18; bcum 40K 9/18;
  • 33869, SI/NC, MRO, Wickett 24-35TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
  • 32943, 818, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 8B, Banks, t6/18; cum 113K 9/18: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201830204392037113805639323158632188
BAKKEN8-201831299492992622513787834623532385
BAKKEN7-20183126071260691783652476503441969
BAKKEN6-201830229802304415103590363624322635
BAKKEN5-20181913081130032298325538215143924

Monday, November 12, 2018:
  • 34368, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36EXF, Siverston, no production data,  
  • 32944, SI/NC, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 9T, Banks, t--; cum 69K 9/18:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20183017759176881855233905337470
BAKKEN8-201831156571564719101476632214225358
BAKKEN7-20183116684166832161541986398541969
BAKKEN6-20182813809138301891228170280230
BAKKEN5-2018194909488015822957468922582

Sunday, November 11, 2018:

  • 34370, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36B, Siverston, no production data,
  • 33222, 1,173, CLR, Miles 6-6H2, Dimmick Lake, 4 sections, t8/18; cum 53K 9/18;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20182419050190443585435498310314464
BAKKEN8-20183027214272904144749866414288435
BAKKEN7-2018757795616847992768432844
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20185100110012605201402014

Saturday, November 10, 2018:

  • 34495, SI/NC, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-3HY, Wolf Bay, no production data, 
  • 33315, SI/NC, Oasis, Muri 5198 11-4 3B, Banks, a huge well; t--; cum 136K 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201830330693275226828731793466738332
BAKKEN8-201831308813088124909675593965727716
BAKKEN7-20183134084340842634170792669433663
BAKKEN6-20183034986349862848471067658455042
BAKKEN5-2018123302330218068871364012240