Monday, November 5, 2018

Oasis 3Q18 Earnings Are Out -- November 5, 2018

Oasis earnings. Link over at SeekingAlpha: press release here;
  • non-GAAP EPS, 8 cents, misses by 4 cents
  • GAAP EPS, 20 cents, beats by 8 cents
  • revenue of $546.5 million, beats by $92.98 million -- that's a fairly hefty beat
  • production: 65,900 bopd; 27% increase yoy
  • oil cut of 77%
  • lowered loe/bbl by over 17% yoy to $6.18/boe
  • 24.4 net operated wells in the Williston Basin
  • 2.0 net operated wells in the Delaware Basin
  • for 2018, expectation:
  • Williston Basin: 110 gross operated wells
  • Permian: 6 - 8 gross operated wells
  • confirms acquisition of 1,600 net acres in the Permian for $20,000 / net acre
  • CEO says he was happy.
**************************************
Will Wonders Never Cease?

My wife is visiting our younger daughter in Portland, OR, this week which means I have increased driving responsibility picking up, taking multiple folks to and from school this week. I enjoy it. I get to see the granddaughters.

So, here I am -- parked in a bus loading and unloading zone out in the middle of nowhere -- sort of in an industrial part of town, mixed with some residential apartment complexes, and a water tower. There is nothing to suggest there is any wi-fi here so I brought plenty of reading material.

Lo and behold, "CableWiFi" of unknown origin, but it's fast and no password. Maybe someone is using it to hack into computers. Whatever.

******************************
Trump Wins Again?

Am I reading this correctly? Succinctly:
  • Obama established net neutrality rules
  • Trump overturned those rules a year ago
  • we've had the Trump "net" rules for the past year (the US is still thriving)
  • the Supreme Court won't get involved
Link here.

I'm a "big" investor in telecom. I have a dog in this fight. But I don't know which dog is mine. So: no comment.

Okay, so these comments:
  • Obama-era "net neutrality" regulations that barred internet service providers from giving certain customers preferential treatment: socialism
  • Trump-era regulations: free-market capitalism
Why would major telecom corporations want net neutrality? Too confusing for me.

Regardless: the US Supreme Court is charting the right course on this one. If it's that big a deal, Congress needs to enact veto-proof laws.

************************************
The Literature Page

The other day a reader recommended an anthology edited by Tom Wolfe, The New Journalism, c. 1973. I ordered it sight unseen and received it today. I love it. At least at first glance it looks wonderful.

Soft cover; well used but no markings in it. Looks like it might have been one of 45 copies in some college journalism course room and this copy was seldom, if ever, really used. It's soft and has the feel of having been opened many times but no markings.

There are four opening introductory chapters -- the kind I always like in these anthologies.

And then twenty-three (23) selections, from about 20 different journalists, including Tom Wolfe, of course; Hunter S Thompson (two selections); Norman Mailer; Joan Didion; George Plimpton; Gay Talese, Rex Reed; and, Truman Capote.

It would be great for a trans-Atlantic flight. It's too short for a trans-Pacific flight; for the latter one needs to read the bible. Or is the Bible?

Nine New Permits -- November 5, 2018

Natural gas: up 8.31% today; trading at $3.557.

Active rigs:

$62.6911/5/201811/05/201711/05/201611/05/201511/05/2014
Active Rigs65553767190

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (5); Petroshale (4)
  • Fields: Truax (Williams), McGregory Buttes (Dunn)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well SC-Hoving pad in 15-154-98; Petroshale has permits for a 4-well Thunder Cloud middle Bakken/Three Forks pad in 18-148-93;
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 34277, 1,562, Whiting, Thomas 13-3-2H, Truax, t10/18; cum -- 
Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and today not reported for some reason.

This Tells Me Amazon Is Coming To Texas! -- November 5, 2018

Amazon, on an "emotional" level absolutely, positively, did not want to come to Texas.

But, looking at the demographics, location, future, yada, yada, yada, Texas was a no-brainer.

What to do?

Two sites for Amazon's HQ2.

Link here at The WSJ.
Amazon plans to split its second headquarters evenly between two locations rather than picking one city for HQ2, according to a person familiar with the matter, a surprise decision that will spread the impact of a massive new office across two communities.
The driving force behind the decision to build two equal offices in addition to the company’s headquarters in Seattle is recruiting enough tech talent, according to the person familiar with the company’s plans. The move will also ease potential issues with housing, transit and other areas where adding tens of thousands of workers could cause problems.
Under the new plan, Amazon would split the workforce with 25,000 employees in each city, the person said. 
Seriously, no hints on what the two cities might be.

In my July 29, 2018, note below, Austin, like Boston, made the short list at three legalized betting sites. At the time, I felt strongly, with just one site, it could not be Austin. My thoughts now, with two sites:
  • Boston: money
  • Austin: "Silicon Valley"
From July 29, 2018:
This is from USA Today, April 30, 2018:

Three betting sites.

British online betting site Oddsmakers:
  • Virginia
  • Austin
  • Boston
  • DC
  • Atlanta
Irish bookie site PaddyPower:
  • Boston
  • Austin
  • Atlanta
  • Montgomery Co., Maryland
  • Pittsburgh
Canada's Bovada betting site:
  • Virginia
  • Austin
  • Boston
  • DC
  • Atlanta
Toronto gaining popularity at the Canadian betting site.

My two cents worth: it will be in northeast US, not Texas. Texas is a great site for fulfillment centers and tech support, but Austin is not a financial or political center.

Austin makes all three lists, but DC makes only two lists. Boston makes all three lists, and is a financial center. With 25 universities and colleges in the Boston area, I think Boston is a no-brainer for a corporate headquarters. Atlanta, also, makes all three lists, but I just don't see it.

Minor Update On CLR's Kennedy-Miles Wells In Dimmick Lake -- November 5, 2018

I track the Kennedy-Miles wells here.

At that link, scrolling up from the bottom, you will note that a lot of wells went back on the conf list. They are all producing very nicely now, for the last four months or so.

Many of the other producing wells that had come off the confidential list were also off line for the past few months suggesting neighboring fracking was going on. Many of those wells remain off line.

However, are we seeing some good news here?

18543, 378, CLR, Kennedy 1-31H, was back on line for four days in 9/17 after being off line since 1/18 for all practical purposes. This may mean something; it may not. But over 4 days in 9/18 this well produced 787 bbls.

Random Update Of An Oasis Spratley Well -- November 5, 2018

This page won't be updated.

There is no evidence that this well has been re-fracked. The Spratley wells are tracked here.

At risk of beating a dead horse:
But not only that, this well did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. 
Whatever. 
The well:
  • 19946, 1,474, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13H, Alkali Creek, Bakken, t11/11; cum 604K 9/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20181638204681569235228752487
BAKKEN8-20183199119369122071348312647526
BAKKEN7-2018311253312642156831698716467210
BAKKEN6-201830116411177815963144571412532
BAKKEN5-20183012544124761971031052154651
BAKKEN4-201830136301379224382328519471038
BAKKEN3-201831162741616032399425327571186
BAKKEN2-20182010253977726971403126751156
BAKKEN1-201827749683292725613237012967
BAKKEN12-201729872478423868613508013218
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017128821443465180601676
BAKKEN8-20173127932436790505504755
BAKKEN7-20173127963118830505304753
BAKKEN6-20173026932403688487804578
BAKKEN5-201731334435601240694106631
BAKKEN4-201730323234881135579505495
BAKKEN3-20173134053544923523549250
BAKKEN2-20172830182430946541140031128

Random Update Of A Million-Bbl CLR Whitman Well In Oakdale -- November 5, 2018

This page won't be updated.

This well has not been re-fracked.

The well:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1611 million bbls 9/18; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line; sundry form says valve on LACT line was cracked open; small oil spill; resolved; off-line as of 9/17; neighboring well in section was re-refracked; note production jump in 9/18;
Look at recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018301399914197683515432140361011
BAKKEN8-2018420751375123120731580443
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018002210000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-201720019000
BAKKEN11-2017322021100
BAKKEN10-201732380100
BAKKEN9-20171638293858232480047030
BAKKEN8-2017319112914342810829105900
BAKKEN7-20172662576352117685153261380
BAKKEN6-2017309377940633311517112840
BAKKEN5-201731102181010635712107118610
BAKKEN4-2017288004810132793328923220
BAKKEN3-201731101491013731811626113810

Listening to peak oil folks / conventional oil folks it was my understanding that once oil wells start declining they never show increased output during primary production.

Random Update Of A Petro-Hut USA Well In The Charlson

This page won't be updated.

I track this well at this post.

There is no data to suggest this well has been re-fracked.

Re-posting from an earlier post regarding a Bakken well:
But not only that, this well did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. 
Whatever. 
The well:
  • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; Charlson; cum 897K 9/18; 25 stages; 3.1 million lbs proppant; went IA 1/14; still inactive as of 6/14; back on line September, 2014; a Three Forks well;
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20183092779448198516768142652503
BAKKEN8-2018319216904021161796017618126
BAKKEN7-201831972498732209178901759579
BAKKEN6-201830106501110228551646116076176
BAKKEN5-20183111129105732472170021670482
BAKKEN4-201830111911139025491651415353952
BAKKEN3-2018311171011530243316543163270
BAKKEN2-201828111341123024701623115528508
BAKKEN1-2018311272412821290218163179470
BAKKEN12-20173113263129402992176331734374
BAKKEN11-201730131171345431081676982098351
BAKKEN10-2017311443914496328219217019001
BAKKEN9-2017301267412004368216658016477
BAKKEN8-20174501690858618390
BAKKEN7-20173151755311460810878920
BAKKEN6-2017305032503240573026873220
BAKKEN5-20173150544857418896227176029

When I see results like this these are some of thoughts:
  • the Bakken / Three Forks is really, really well understood -- as far as mapping goes
  • some areas have much better natural fracking than other areas
  • North Dakota has the world's largest micro-seismic array -- unless something has changed recently
  • operators really, really know what they are doing 
  • there is/are never enough resources -- human or money -- in any human endeavor; operators need to prioritize their activities worldwide, nationwide, and in the Bakken

Random Update Of A CLR Holstein Federal Well In Elm Tree -- November 5, 2018

I don't add many wells to my "monster well" page; there are just too many. To get added as a "monster well" these days something remarkable must be noted.

On the other hand, some wells were noted to be "monster wells" from the beginning.

Example. Completed/fracked in February, 2015, and by the end of 2016, had accumulated close to
500,000 bbls of oil:
  • 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 453K 11/16; 
So, now what? Today:
  • 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 708K 9/18.
Certainly, this should be a million-bbl well; Bakken wells will produce for 35 years.

By the way, look at the full production profile for this well at this post.

According to data (or lack of data) at FracFocus and NDIC, this well has not been re-fracked.

This is from an earlier note regarding another Bakken well:
But not only that, it did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production, all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. Whatever. 
This well has been such a great producer, I'm not sure one can say there has been definite jumps in production or whether the operator is simply "managing" the well. 

Random Update Of A WPX Victor Elk Well In Reunion Bay -- November 5, 2018

I don't add many wells to my "monster well" page; there are just too many. To get added as a "monster well" these days something remarkable must be noted.

Example. This well certainly would not be considered a "monster well" in 2018. Look at its production as of November, 2016:
  • 28590, 1,258, WPX, Victor Elk 32-29HB, Reunion Bay, 25 stages; 3.5 million lbs; t1/15; cum 242K 11/16;
Not very remarkable by today's standards except that it was completed tested in early 2015, and less than two years later was at 242,000 bbls.

But, now look at this:
  • 28590, 1,258, WPX, Victor Elk 32-29HB, Reunion Bay; t1/15; cum 367K 9/18;
In less than two years, another 125,000 bbls.

But not only that, it did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production, all of a sudden in January, 2018, this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

The well was taken off line for eighteen (18) days when it came back and produced almost 17,000 bbls in one month (over 27 days it extrapolates to 18,443 bbls over 30 days). 

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. Whatever. 

Relevant portion of production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201830545154582163627550870
BAKKEN8-201831691969242661806066960
BAKKEN7-2018317183722031737952651148
BAKKEN6-20183078857884348987286382908
BAKKEN5-20183186638672438895897428609
BAKKEN4-20183076597613683484786895275
BAKKEN3-20183155005466648260884761460
BAKKEN2-201820495150276295548130221730
BAKKEN1-2018271659916784756418375129603396
BAKKEN12-2017121399135311121509801406
BAKKEN11-201730485449492194537331351334
BAKKEN10-201722350932741701388419261241

So, this well must have been re-fracked.

Nope. No FracFocus data and and no sundry form to suggest this well was re-fracked. I guess it just happened.

By the way, there are two other Victor Elk wells on this 3-well pad. One of the two has been inactive / off line for quite some time; the other showed a jump in production but much less obvious, and that jump may or may not be significant or noteworthy.

Random Update Of The Petro-Hunt Thompson Wells In Charlson Oil Field -- November 5, 2018

No evidence (no sundry form and no FracFocus data) to suggest this well was re-fracked.

The well:
  • 18111, 776, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 8D-4-4H, Charlson, 11 stages; 1.2 million lbs; t5/11; cum 462K 9/18; relevant production profile --
BAKKEN9-2018301649016727196320900
BAKKEN8-2018311800818058197225584253680
BAKKEN7-20183118726186542234264822621254
BAKKEN6-2018291852118490490226914267130
BAKKEN5-2018301617715974594323619234073
BAKKEN4-2018724142531272343233830
BAKKEN3-2018311336013543107817386171700
BAKKEN2-2018281228112198102015598154030
BAKKEN1-2018311435614462124718249180330
BAKKEN12-2017311560015655141720020198040
BAKKEN11-2017301657016439173621634214250
BAKKEN10-2017311780217794231925838256220
BAKKEN9-20171060875680116580317566395
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20172112801495122231821720
BAKKEN6-201730189717581733401313854
BAKKEN5-2017311964200520836853350119
BAKKEN4-201730199720872003675343630
BAKKEN3-20173121012045193373235160
BAKKEN2-2017281963189018534793175109

The graphic:


27918, relevant part of production profile, taken off line for less than a month:
BAKKEN2-20182850374880136055915206190
BAKKEN1-201831649866361480648362670
BAKKEN12-201731790776741932917579401033
BAKKEN11-2017301038910593311815796529810289
BAKKEN10-2017311241412686325518593018377
BAKKEN9-2017301236311797331018206018025
BAKKEN8-201733314721436386170
BAKKEN7-201731335331891487559753810
BAKKEN6-2017302986329412983828373197
BAKKEN5-201731274326181190495515193436
BAKKEN4-201730342134011363483048300
BAKKEN3-201731378436311355498849880
BAKKEN2-201728370539641348478847880
BAKKEN1-201731403939841387481348130

27208, relevant part of production profile, taken off line for less than a month :
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20183076737549274320288173162763
BAKKEN8-2018318209847332222057119958397
BAKKEN7-20183080558017302820771176682901
BAKKEN6-2018309390954747782212421434481
BAKKEN5-201831970294933503234762316892
BAKKEN4-2018309603978940732310222075818
BAKKEN3-2018311113711215357825090248740
BAKKEN2-201828108151076036322271721980542
BAKKEN1-2018311208112092394723406231900
BAKKEN12-2017311280212759346722487222710
BAKKEN11-20173013347133333473244881047513804
BAKKEN10-2017311560415618314327292027076
BAKKEN9-2017301461314131255223480023299
BAKKEN8-20173554914117211020890
BAKKEN7-20173157405789125220515202990
BAKKEN6-2017306092612913722043619751476
BAKKEN5-20173159265669135019643686312564
BAKKEN4-20173062196267141520129199200
BAKKEN3-20173161526245141521242210260
BAKKEN2-20172863086339142320627204320
BAKKEN1-20173171547453178823650234340

30369, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H, fracked/tested 9/17; max production after frack, 24,728 bbls/28 days; max natural gas, 29,546 million cf = 5,000 boe

30368, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-2H, fracked/tested 9/17; max production after frack, 23,307 bbls/31 days;

30685, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, fracked/tested 8/17; max production after frack, 15,745 bbls/31 days;