Sunday, October 28, 2018

Neighboring Wells Will Show A Jump In Production When Kjorstad Comes Off Confidential List -- October 28, 2018

Tomorrow this well is coming off the confidential list:
  • 31261, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 6T, Willow Creek, a huge well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182148424706
7-20181114814483
6-20182214321421
5-20182435822189

So, what is the older, neighboring well doing? Production jumped from 1,000 bbls/month to 9,000 bbls/month.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20183190459019167491146910375763
BAKKEN7-2018307035666419001928778491118
BAKKEN6-20181057951420057196075
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018205245462005233020
BAKKEN12-20173145752818725492180
BAKKEN11-2017301218128342747110391

The neighboring well:
  • 19030, 2,707, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 24-22H, Willow Creek, t10/10; cum 8/18:
A bit farther away, this well had a slight jump in production:
  • 25339, 3,170, Oasis, Gene Zumhof 5300 11-23T, Willow Creek, t8/13; cum 175K 8/18;
The one farthest away showed minimal impact:
  • 22088, 2,530, Oasis, Dubuque 530014-22B, Willow Creek, t9/12; cum 200K 8/18; but even this one was taken off-line while fracking the newest well quite a distance away.

Another Well With No Evidence That It Has Been Re-Fracked -- October 28, 2018

The Skarston wells are tracked here

The well:
  • 21644, 3,235, Equinor, Skarston 1-12 1H, Banks, t9/12; cum 309K 8/18;
No evidence that this well has been fracked. Full production profile here.

Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20182444464464333677356350727
BAKKEN7-20183153905363378573766699178
BAKKEN6-2018306500640944059066845876
BAKKEN5-2018284677479639464067376736
BAKKEN4-20182053645069328867616097317
BAKKEN3-2018008260000
BAKKEN2-201824101669700694734257308032037
BAKKEN1-20181995159597578529831273981064
BAKKEN12-20173122251223931096353722458116096
BAKKEN11-20171897259141457117537158861025
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000

Not Re-Fracked? Staggering -- October 28, 2018

The last sundry form for this well is dated July, 2014. There is no NDIC data for a re-frack.

FracFocus has no data for a re-frack.

The Florida and Florida Federal wells in Camp oil field are tracked here

The well:
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2018306517648435721165211189231
BAKKEN7-20183171787211526310961107140
BAKKEN6-2018276556663032601057191211079
BAKKEN5-201831840381725334132661272263
BAKKEN4-20181131043179181845233637735
BAKKEN3-2018287691785444701325912470372
BAKKEN2-2018288559854039081166210709520
BAKKEN1-2018311023210231517716133127482917
BAKKEN12-2017311090910773618314467139890
BAKKEN11-2017248227822152611212511229536
BAKKEN10-201714727274813477110301082122
BAKKEN9-2017271601616113104522480424048380
BAKKEN8-2017312052720364120782984528575839
BAKKEN7-2017312541425768141663711636375269
BAKKEN6-20172927095267492466432161295152207

Update On Slawson Torpedo Wells -- October 28, 2018

October 28, 2018: update. It appears that all eleven wells have now been drilled to depth; ten of the eleven wells are on SI/NC status; the eleventh is on drl status. Note: there are twelve wells on this pad, but #31289 runs north; whereas the other eleven run south under the river/lake. The wells are tracked here.

If This Well Was Not Re-Fracked --- Bohmbach Three Forks NOS -- Random Update -- October 28, 2018

See this post, from June 8, 2018.

I'm not going to run through all the wells in this area. For an update on the Antelope wells on this pad, see this post.

This is just an example of what they're doing in the Bakken these days.

The well:
  • 21490, 736, CLR, Bohmbach 3-35H, Elm Tree, 33-053-03768, t7/12; cum 340K 8/18; the permit says this would be a Three Forks well, but note the legal name; the geological report confirmed that it would be a Three Forks well
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20183120576204171465730994306010
BAKKEN7-20183124155240401812636665362460
BAKKEN6-20182819229192721571129407290750
BAKKEN5-20181915629151881157921471182793058
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000

Full production at this post

#21490, a revised sundry form was received July 13, 2017; at first I thought it was a re-frack, but there is no evidence that this well was re-fracked; it appears the major revision was revising the original IP to 920;
  • from the sundry form: revised IP, 920, no evidence of any re-frack;
  • FracFocus: no data for the recent re-frack; only shows the original frack (6/24/2012)
If this well was not re-fracked, look at the new production as of 5/18.

Formation tops:
  • Lodgepole: 9,953' TVD
  • upper Bakken shale: 10,700' TVD
  • middle Bakken: 10,729' TVD
  • lower Bakken shale: 10,787' TVD
  • Three Forks: 10,826' TVD   
I'm not going to run through the Bohmbach pad to explain all this but my hunch is that it follows pretty closely what is going on with the Antelope wells on the same pad.

Random Update Of CLR's Old Antelope Wells In Elm Tree Now That Neighboring Wells Have Been Fracked -- October 28, 2018

Everything has been posted to complete the story, but later I will provide some narrative. This is another incredible story in the Bakken. Harold Hamm must be having a blast. 

The graphic below was posted a little over a year ago, April 27, 2017:



Note the "rig-on-site" and the horizontal that is being drilled in the graphic above.

So, what does that area look like now?



Note that the four wells that were "green" / drl status back in April, 2017, are now drilled to depth. However, when were those four wells completed / fracked? And what to the production profiles look like for those four wells and what does the production profiles look like for #21488, #21489, #22820, and #22821?

First, I will check to see if FracFocus has data for any new re-fracks for:
  • #21488, 33-053-03766, fracked back in 2012; but not since; no sundry form for a re-frac; production profile here; t8/12; cum 650K 8/18 and still producing 15,000 bbls of crude oil per month; middle Bakken;
  • #21489, 33-053-03767, fracked back in 2012; but not since; no sundry form for a re-frac; production profile here; t8/12; cum 438K 8/18; producing 4,000 bbls of crude oil per month; middle Bakken;
  • #22820, 33-053-04101, fracked back in 2014, 40 stages; 6 million lbs; but not since; no sundry form for a re-frac; production profile here; t12/14; cum 580K 8/18 and still producing 15,000 bbls of oil per month; Three Forks second bench (confirmed with geologist's report)
  • #22821, 33-053-04102, fracked back in 2014; but not since; no sundry form for a re-frac; production profile here; t12/14; cum 529K 8/18 and back to producing 10,000 bbls of oil per month; middle Bakken;
The newest wells:
  • #32358, 33-053-07434, off line/144, CLR, Antelope Federal 5-23H, Elm Tree, t9/18; cum --; off-line; fracked: 3/14/18 - 3/14/18; 8.3 million gallons water; 90.4% water by weight;
  • #32359, 33-053-07435, SI/NC, CLR, Antelope Federal 6-21H1, Elm Tree, no production data, FracFocus, fracked: 3/14/18 - 3/14/18; 3.9 million gallons water (no typo; need to confirm); 89.4% water by weight
  • #32360, 33-053-07436, off line/1,912, CLR, Antelope Federal 7-23H, Elm Tree, t9/18; cum --; off-line; fracked: 3/28/18 - 3/28/18; 11.9 million gallons water; 87.1% water by weight;
  • #32361, 33-053-07437, off line/1,200, CLR, Antelope Federal 8-23H2, Elm Tree, t9/18; cum --; off-line; fracked: 3/29/18 - 3/29/18; 9.4 million gallons water; 88.7% water by weight;
*************************************
Geogologist Reports

#22820, 33-053-04101, 1,240, CLR, Antelope 1-23H2, Elm Tree, fracked back in 2014; but not since; no sundry form for a re-frac; production profile here; t12/14; cum 580K 8/18 and still producing 15,000 bbls of oil per month; Three Forks second bench (confirmed with geologist's report); 
  • geologic markers
    • upper Bakken shale came in at 10,735.5' TVD
    • middle Bakken came in at 10,756.3 TVD
    • the lower Bakken shale came in at 10,811.3' TVD
    • the Three Forks came in at 10,855' TVD
    • the Three Forks second bench target was confirmed at 10,907' TVD
  • gas varied from 200 to 1,000 units; max gas at 4,106 units
  • the predetermined drill target zone was approx 11 feet thick and the top of the target occurs approx 52 feet into the Three Forks

Idle Rambling Regarding EURs In The Bakken -- October 28, 2018

Over at "wells of interest," I go through the wells by permit number: the 16xxx permits; the 17xxx permits; the 18xxx permits; etc. I don't have the statistical data, but it certainly look like ther was a huge jump in production in wells in the 21xxx series. Going through the 16xxx - 18xxx, I don't see a lot of wells approaching 400,000 bbls crude oil (cumulative/total production) but already there are many, many wells in the 21xxx series that are are approaching 500,000 bbls.

I think CLR shows it best in their "EUR" slides which they generally show in their corporate presentations. The latest presentation is at this link.

The "EUR graph" from the September, 2018, presentation:


I'll correct this if I find I'm wrong, but it appears the 21xxx permits were drilled in the 2012 time-frame. If so, look at the EUR line back in 2011 and then in 2014 in the graphic above.

I think most readers remember when we started out in the Bakken -- we were looking at EURs of 375,000.

I think a lot of folks thought Mike Filloon was nuts when he was suggesting 1 million bbls will be the next EUR milestone and that was years ago.

In the graphic above, Harold Hamm is shooting for EURs of 1.2 million boe in the Bakken. Early production in the Bakken is 94% crude oil; as time goes on, the percent of crude oil declines a bit but not by much.

Let's check the Bakken dashboard for October, 2018 (a pdf will download):
  • natural gas production: 25 hundred million cubic feet/day = 420,000 boepd
  • crude oil production: 1,300 thousand bopd = 1,300,000 bopd
  • total = 1,716,600 boepd
  • 420,000 / 1,716,600 = 0.24 or 24%. 
Let's look at the last Director's Cut, data for August, 2018
  • Let's look at the last Director's Cut, data for August, 2018:
    • crude oil: 1,291,496 bopd (new all-time high)
    • natural gas: 406,226 boepd
    • total:1,697,721 boepd  
  • 406,226 / 1,697,721 = 24%
Color me surprised: assuming I did the math correctly, as much as 25% of production coming from the Bakken is now natural gas. I'll have to check that again; that seems really, really high but it looks right.

Later: see first comment regarding natural gas and energy / cash equivalence factors  ---
6 MCF/bbl is an energy equivalence factor. It might be more appropriate to use a value equivalence factor to account for the current oil and gas prices. A factor of 20-25 MCF/bbl would yield around 100,000 boepd for the gas production.  
And then see my reply.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 28, 2018

Six months ago it was late April; optimists were talking about spring.

Monday, November 5, 2018:
30222, conf, BR, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,

Sunday, November 4, 2018:
34262, conf, MRO, Yellow Otter USA 14-7TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
30547, conf, BR, Merton 41-15TFH ULW, Croff, no production data,
30221, conf, BR, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork, no production data,

Saturday, November 3, 2018:
34664, conf, EOG, Wayzetta 164-23M, Parshall, target = Souris River; no plans to produce; no production data,
34261, conf, MRO, Young Woman USA 44-12H, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Friday, November 2, 2018:
None.

Thursday, November 1, 2018:
34754, conf, Hunt, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-4, Ross, no production data,
34260, conf, MRO, Walking Eagle USA 44-12TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
32959, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 14TX, Banks, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182434040407
7-20181720136634
6-20181996742042
5-20182361151957

32958, conf, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 15BX, Banks, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182480038493
7-20182057543962
6-20182001639733
5-20181920639093

31259, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 4T, Willow Creek, producing:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181719719219
7-201882560
6-2018129935681
5-20181187010033

Wednesday, October 31, 2018:
None.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018:
34510, conf, MRO, Monteau USA 34-7H, Van Hook, no production data;
34346, conf, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-6H, Squires, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181005612245
7-2018102748819
6-201880020
5-201848270

34321, conf, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-7H, Squires, producing:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181085613525
7-20181307215348
6-2018105080
5-201854010

34227, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield-Colfax LE 24-13 1TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018214924209
7-2018191033881
6-2018189354505
5-2018186350

34186, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 2TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a very nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018201843892
7-2018176263453
6-2018165883685
5-2018123180

34185, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 3H, Lone Tree Lake, a very nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018237594170
7-2018208863737
6-2018278777238
5-2018158780

34184, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield East 24-13 4TFH, Lone Tree Lake, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018212574220
7-2018178093759
6-2018196454950
5-2018185000

34183, conf, Kraken Operating Redfield East 24-13 5H, Oliver, a very nice, for Oliver:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018246644651
7-2018203063846
6-2018290067506
5-2018229900

34182, conf, Kraken Operating, Colfax 19-18 4H, Oliver, a very nice well, for Oliver;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018232684346
7-2018213173777
6-2018221405252
5-2018206350

34181, conf, Kraken Operating, Colfax 19-18 5TFH, Oliver, a very nice well, for Oliver:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2018242934402
7-2018215394180
6-2018156743262
5-2018163280

Monday, October 29, 2018:
34509, conf, MRO, McKinley USA 24-7TFH, Van Hook, no production data,
31260, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 5B, Willow Creek, a nice well --


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181567014396
7-20181722014525
6-20182919530614
5-20182950928436

Sunday, October 28, 2018:
34508, conf, MRO, Dearborn USA 24-7TFH, Van Hook, no production data,

Saturday, October 27, 2018:
34799, conf, Hunt, Nichols 156-90-10-15H-4, Ross, producing, albeit not much,
34507, conf, MRO, Bursha USA 14-7H, Van Hook, no production data,
31261, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 6T, Willow Creek, a huge well --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182148424706
7-20181114814483
6-20182214321421
5-20182435822189

Have We Talked About Jack Yet? Jack 21-16 1H -- #21046? -- October 28, 2018

Production profile at this post.

At that link, scroll down the production profile and look at the jump in production at various times:
  • production jumped after the first small re-frack in August, 2016
  • production jumped again, and sustained a bit longer, one year later, in August, 2017
Once you see the pad, it will make sense. In addition, the well was re-fracked, July 31, 2016 - August 1, 2016: only 2.9 million gallons of water; and 94% water by weight (very little sand) -- FracFocus; sundry form -- an IP of 820 on the re-frack; 1.4 million lbs of sand and 12 stages; a very, very small frack.

The well:
  • 21046, 2,264, Equinor/Statoil, Jack 21-16 1H, East Fork, 33-105-02260; t5/12; cum 303K 8/18;
For newbies:
  • note the mix of middle Bakken wells and first bench of the Three Forks
  • we haven't even started drilling the lower benches of the Three Forks fro this pad yet
  • note the completion strategy Equinor is using; re-fracking parent wells with small amounts of water/proppant at same time daughter wells are being fracked with optimized completions
  • it appears some fields may be better for re-fracks than other fields; the jury is still out
  • it appears some fields may be better for parent wells than other fields when daughter wells are fracked; the jury is still out;
For newbies: another chapter in the life-history of the Bakken wells that will produce for 35 years. These are the metrics that are important:
  • how fast the well pays for itself -- in the Bakken, improving over time
  • the EUR -- it turns out that the EUR is not static
  • primary production as a percent of original oil in place (OOIP) -- it turns out that this is not static
  • decline rates -- in the Bakken, improving over time
  • operator's management of the asset
  • impact of neighboring wells
The graphics: 



Other wells in the lower graphic:
  • 21045, 3,205, Equinor/Statoil, Ruth 28-33 1H, East Fork,33-105-02259, re-fracked 8/1/16, 12 stages, 1.5 million lbs, IP of 1,226, t4/12; cum 325K 8/18; very small re-frack for huge return; see below

  • 30427, 1,778, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 4TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 117K 10/18;
  • 30429, 1,770, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 2TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 125K 10/18;
  • 30431, 3,256, Equinor, Ruth 28-33 3H, East Fork, t11/16; cum 216K 10/18;
  • 30428, 1,653, Equinor, Jack 21-16 3TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 106K 10/18;
  • 30430, 1,438, Equinor, Jack 21-16 8TFH, East Fork, t11/16; cum 122K 10/18;
  • 30432, 2,563, Equinor, Jack 21-16 2H, East Fork, t11/16; cum 221K 10/18;
21045: after the very, very small re-frack in August, 2016, this well produced 55,000 bbls of crude oil over the next 18 months and was off-line much of that time; at $50/bbl = $2.8 million. 
BAKKEN12-20171928333118595519831682182
BAKKEN11-2017307180686912984744157551403
BAKKEN10-201731585157671221648484509133
BAKKEN9-20172833883374103063107292341
BAKKEN8-2017314686456313667382236531
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170030000
BAKKEN5-2017319391159543
BAKKEN4-201721338136000
BAKKEN3-2017625352464710339143457303
BAKKEN2-2017259934986426914104319652342
BAKKEN1-2017311171311892329101289311505815
BAKKEN12-201613531349062239459235040603
BAKKEN11-20163003140000
BAKKEN10-20164281024961757630511862887
BAKKEN9-201630000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000