Sunday, October 7, 2018

As We Get Ready For Another Week -- After A Most Exciting Weekend -- Chaos Is Self-Organizing -- October 7, 2018 -- Everyone Stayed Home To Watch The End Of Carnival

Gasoline demand. Link here.


************************************ 
In The Eye Of The Hurricane

"No-drama Obama" vs "Trump chaos." Link here.

Another journalist with no science background. Even a college freshman is aware of the fact that "chaos is self organizing." LOL. The most recent example: the chaotic US Senate was able to get organized enough to have a fairly historic vote.
Self-organization, also called (in the social sciences) spontaneous order, is a process where some form of overall order arises from local interactions between parts of an initially disordered system. ... Chaos theory discusses self-organization in terms of islands of predictability in a sea of chaotic unpredictability.
Personally, I will probably be diagnosed with PTSD before the end of President Trump's first term, but OMG, the successes (not OMG, but rather CNN in this case, I guess).

And now this, from CNBC who, it seems, cannot stop trying to talk the market down:
  • President Trump's corporate tax cut and his business deregulation efforts are not a "sugar high," says Kevin Warsh
  • most economists "never thought the economy could grow this fast," says Warsh, who had been on Trump's short-list for Fed chairman (I think President Trump has said the same thing)
  • "At the end of this year, we may be saying the economy is the strongest since 1999," Warsh predicts
Kevin Warsh? Former Federal Reserve governor and on the short list to be the new Fed chairperson (Jerome Powell was selected instead). I would assume he's pretty smart and would know something about the economy.

This reminds me of the octogenarians at every retirement seminar who shout from the back of the room, "boring is good."

No, "boring is not good." Boring is ... well, boring.

Is it just me but does it seem that whenever President Trump has a press conference or a photo op with a foreign leader he is about the most laid-back guy at the event? It's the US mainstream press that's chaotic, out of control. The foreign press still seems civilized and civil.

By the way, did President Trump go golfing this weekend? I didn't see any media report on that.

*****************************
The Carnival Is Over

The Carnival is Over, The Seekers

Wow, so many memories.

Bonus Photograph Set From Vern Whitten -- October 7, 2018

Some weeks ago when Vern Whitten sent me his most recent set of photographs of North Dakota he also included a set of "Animals With Attitude" from his friend Mike Van Valkenburg.

Form Vern Whitten: these photos are from my photographer friend Mike Van Valkenburg. 
 
Animals with attitude:


Here is his website:  https://mikevanphoto.com/
 
I'm sure both Vern Whitten and Mike Van Valkenburg would enjoy hearing from you. For Vern Whitten's photographs, click on the tag, "Whitten."

Mike Filloon Powder River Update -- October 7, 2018

Link here.

Archived.

Summary:
  • EOG continues to see excellent results in Wyoming, with several big producers leading the way
  • Arbalest 66 has produced 464,400 BO in the first 26 months of well life
  • well costs are very low at $5.3 million for a 9,500-foot lateral when focusing on the Turner formation
  • we think the play has significant upside given the good results and multiple intervals to de-risk
Also from this article:
EOG's current Turner well costs are $5.3 million for a 9,500-foot lateral.
WTI pricing is $70/bbl. The average EOG location in the PRB produces 133 KBO and 471 MMcf in the first year.
After reducing WTI for NRI (20%), differentials ($5) and cash costs ($10/bbl), oil revenues are $5.4 million.
This estimate does not include NGLs or natural gas.
Payback is reached in 10-11 months on average. EOG is showing how productive the PRB can be, and it is likely the play is highly undervalued. We think oil prices are headed higher, and that will make the play more attractive. Not only has it done well in Wyoming, we have addressed its success in the Permian and Super Hogs across other US plays.
A Conway Twitty sort of night.

Slow Hand, Conway Twitty

Mike Filloon Bakken Update -- October 7, 2018

Link here.

Archived.

Summary:
  • COP's Anderson Ranch location produced 272 barrels of oil in the first 12 months of well life
  • the move from sliding sleeves to cement casings in concert with broad volume increases in proppant continues to drive production improvements
  • COP continues to push better production in the Bakken.  We expect this will drive production gains across all plays and provide better top-line numbers than are currently estimated
  • US unconventional operators are currently undervalued amid higher oil prices and better well design
This is really, really cool. COP/BR's Anderson Ranch wells are tracked here

From Filloon:
Conoco has seen a relatively large jump in oil production per Bakken horizontal year over year.
We continue to see a jump in volumes of sand and fluids.
The improvement of 41 KBO and 63 MMcf in one year is quite good and is representative of its well design changes being implemented in a much more active manner.
A company like COP won't see the leveraged improvement of a focused, unconventional operator. That said, well design improvements will improve COP's results in the Bakken, Niobrara, Eagle Ford and Delaware.
The average increase in revenues per Bakken well is approximately $2MM. This is after we pull costs, logistics, NRI, etc.
It completed 83 North Dakota locations this year, providing a total of $170MM. This does not include its acreage in other major US plays. We continue to believe WTI is headed to $80/bbl and we are currently at the low end of the range.

Doomsday: US States, Page 2

Doomsday: states, page 1.

Connecticut: back in the news. October 7, 2018

Connecticut: Back In The News -- October 7, 2018 -- And, Back By Popular Demand -- Donna, The Deer Lady

The next big thing.

The doomsday chronicles.

Doomsday states.

Before reading further: flashback. Connecticut reported a $1.1 billion budget surplus earlier this year. And then this, Connecticut's budget revenues are on pace to increase the rainy day fund -- just a few weeks ago -- September 20, 2018.

Link here. From The Wall Street Journal, opinion.
Mr. Stefanowski’s lament seems to reflect the mood of voters. In Quinnipiac University’s latest state poll in August, only 25% of respondents approved of Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy’s job performance. Seventy-one percent rated the state’s economy as “not so good” or “poor.” And with good reason: Connecticut’s economy has shrunk at an annual compounded rate of 0.5% since 2009. Next door, Massachusetts’ economy grew at 2.1% a year over that same period.
Connecticut’s bean counters are forecasting a $2 billion budget deficit next year. Worker pensions, retiree health care and debt service make up about a third of the budget. Pension costs are projected to grow by half over the next four years.
The state fisc is underwater, and Mr. Stefanowski, a former executive at General Electric and UBS , has a plan to keep it from drowning. But can he persuade voters to jump on a life raft of tax and spending cuts?
Mr. Malloy’s answer to gaping budget holes was to raise taxes. But many businesses and high earners responded by decamping for sunnier tax climes. GE, which had been headquartered in suburban Fairfield for more than four decades, moved to Boston in 2016. New Haven’s Alexion Pharmaceuticals followed this year.
“We lose over 80 people per day,” Mr. Stefanowski says. “Just in the last six years we lost $6 billion of taxable income just to the state of Florida.” The numbers are abstract, but for voters the malaise is real. Hence the governor’s race here is competitive even in a year in which Republicans face strong headwinds nationwide.
GOP governors in blue states generally fit two molds. They’re either moderates who play down their conservatism, like Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, or pugilists throwing punches against public-sector union machines, like Bruce Rauner in Illinois.
Mr. Stefanowski is of neither sort. He’s running as a supply-side Republican and change agent—part Ronald Reagan, part Jack Welch. He’s called for eliminating Connecticut’s estate tax immediately and phasing out the corporate tax over two years and the income tax over eight. He also wants to impose 10-year term limits for state legislators and allow citizens to initiate referendum campaigns.
Good luck.

**************************************
Meanwhile, Back in North Dakota

Deer hunting season will soon begin. (Bow hunting has begun.)

Beware! Drive safely.

Deer Crossing

*****************************
Female Logic 

I know I'm going to get into trouble with that headline. I'm used to it.

I recently had some health concerns that worried my wife greatly ... perhaps another story for another time ... suffice it to say, my wife had legitimate concerns and legitimate worries about my health.

With that as background ...

The other day, both my wife and I left the apartment at the usual time, about 7:00 a.m. She went off to drive the granddaughters to school. I went off to Starbucks to blog.

When my wife came home a couple of hours later, after running some errands, about 9:30 a.m., she noted that the bathroom door was closed and that the light was still on. She assumed I was in the bathroom. She called my name. I did not respond. She called my name again. Later, she said she did not try the bathroom door. She said she was afraid that she would find me dead on the floor and didn't want to see a dead body. Or something to that effect.

So, what does she do? She takes out her smart phone and begins to text me. Despite assuming that I had died.

When I did not answer the first text, that confirmed the worse. I was dead. In the bathroom.

So, she texted again. Don't ask.

Again, no answer. Which, of course, confirmed to her, a second time, that I was dead.

I wasn't. 

I honestly do not know what she planned next, but I will never know. I had finished my blogging and had been driving home while she was texting. I walked in the front door to see that she was still staring at her smart phone, I guess hoping for a message from "the other side."

I never got the texts as far as I know. I wonder who got them and wondering why May was asking "Are you dead?"

Biorefinery Under Construction In Grand Forks -- October 7, 2018

Link here. The story is dated August 22, 2018. A reader writes that construction of this plant began aobut six weeks ago.
Construction for an ethanol plant that will turn hundreds of thousands of tons of beet waste into fuel in Grand Forks is officially underway.
The Red River Biorefiner is north of Simplot in Grand Forks. Dirtwork has already begun at the 11-acre construction site that will be home to the 80,000-square-foot ethanol plant.
The project that has been four years in the making is expected to be completed in December 2019. It will turn 500,000 metric tons of agricultural byproducts, including sugar beet waste, into about 18.8 million gallons of ethanol each year.
Trucks will deliver waste into the plant 24/7, and the fuel will be sold in California markets.
The biorefinery will have the lowest carbon footprint in the U.S. for a ethanol production facility of its kind, Chmielewski said, adding it will not produce odors from processing sugar beet waste.
More at the link. 

Contribution Of Wind/Solar To Total US Electricity Produced Declined Month-Over-Month -- Data For June-July, 2018

Electricity production in the US. From combined wind and solar sources: the combined contribution from wind and solar decreased to 6.33 percent from 9.51 percent in June.
  • percent of US electricity sourced from wind/solar, July, 2018: 6.33%
  • percent of US electricity sourced from wind/solar, June, 2018: 9.51%
See this post.

Another CLR Mountain Gap / Rattlesnake Point Well Comes Off Confidential This Weel -- October 7, 2018

Another nice Rattlesnake Point well will come off the confidential list week:
  • 33558, conf,  CLR, Mountain Gap 4-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, a huge well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182361423844
7-20184670040652
6-201842224511
4-201820000

The Mountain Gap wells are tracked here.

Two recently fracked Mountain Gap wells reported:

August 14, 2018: #33120 and #33121 come off confidential list August 25, 2018, and August 27, 2018, respectively.
  • 33120: 37 stages; 15 million lbs -- middle Bakken
  • 33121: 37 stages; 15 million lbs -- TF1 
  • 33120, 3,510, CLR, Mountain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 37 stages; 15 million lbs, t5/18; cum 197K 5/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20183137955378552387743818421931230
BAKKEN7-2018313329533370203433673536210148
BAKKEN6-2018303227232381189723424133637236
BAKKEN5-20183184883844745708353685509402745
BAKKEN4-201847865765854635720572
BAKKEN3-201823173170000
BAKKEN2-2018412312370105501055

  • 33121, 2,972, CLR, Mountain Gap 8-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, 37 stages; 15 million lbs, t5/18; cum 140K 5/18:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201831192591930923179223532189081
BAKKEN7-201831236592364724486267022624283
BAKKEN6-2018301764517759233151935218794190
BAKKEN5-201831700417009981120223502235
BAKKEN4-20184924886869245179901799
BAKKEN3-201814324060000
BAKKEN2-2018310610621145401454

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 7, 2018

Six months ago it was early April; optimists were talking about spring.

Monday, October 15, 2018:
34473, conf,  XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 31X-10G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34140, conf, WPX, Raptor 13-24HEL, Reunion Bay, no production data,
29773, conf, Slawson, Gobbler Federal 3-35-26TFH, Big Bend, no presidential pardon for this one, just in time for Thanksgiving;

Sunday, October 14, 2018:
34472, conf,  XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 31X-10C, Heart Butte, no production data, 
33821, conf,  Oasis, Lite 5393 11-11 3BX, Sanish, big well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181618927711
7-20182600635390
6-20181993122763
5-20182316511126
4-2018164450

33454, conf, Equinor Energy, Weisz 11-14 6H, Painted Woods, producing, albeit not that great;

Saturday, October 13, 2018:
34418, conf, Krakkne Operating, Michelle Lauren 1H, New Home, a nice well;
34417, conf,  Kraken Operating, Ellie Rose 11TFH, New Home, a nice well;
33820, conf,  Oasis, Lite 5393 11-11 4TX, Sanish, a nice well; 
33558, conf,  CLR, Mountain Gap 4-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, a huge well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182361423844
7-20184670040652
6-201842224511
4-201820000

32019, conf,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-7, Capa, no production data, 

Friday, October 12, 2018:
34139, conf,  WPX, Raptor 13-24HZ, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
32020, conf,  HEss, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-6, Capa, no production data, 

Thursday, October 11, 2018:
34645, conf,  Eagle Operating, Popinga 32-16, wildcat, no production data,
32021, conf,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-5, Capa, no production data, 
31987, conf,  Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 41-11 13TX, Willow Creek, a nice well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181533020532
7-20182453427265
6-20181784016069
5-20182591218751
4-2018199178276


Wednesday, October 10, 2018:
34138, conf, WPX, Raptor 13-24HY, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
33328, conf, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36H, Bear Den, no production data, 
33116, conf, CLR, Bailey 9-24H2, Pershing, a very nice well; 37K one full month:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20181862240101
7-20183616069170
6-20182095536117
4-201814280

32125, conf, CLR, Burr Federal 1-26H1, Sanish, a very nice well; 36K one full month:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20182716931122
7-20183583426329
6-201891666686
4-201821580

32022, conf,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-4, Capa, no production data, 
26282, conf, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-5H, McGregory Buttes, no production data, 
26280, conf, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-4H, McGregory Buttes, no production data, 

Tuesday, October 9, 2018:
33327, conf, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36C, Bear Den, no production data,

Monday, October 8, 2018
33453, conf, Equinor, Weisz 11-14 XE 1H, Painted Woods,

Sunday, October 7, 2018
33529, conf, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-12, Elm Tree,

Saturday, October 6, 2018
33115, conf, CLR, Bailey 10-24H, Pershing, a huge well, 50K-month;

Quick! The Data Is Out -- October 7, 2018

Quick!

The most recent "US power report" has been released.

This report from the EIA provides US electricity data on a monthly basis. The data lags by two months. The report released September 26, 2018, is for July, 2018, data.

The report breaks out contribution of coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, hydro, wind, and solar providing US electricity.

Quick!
  • on a percentage basis how much did renewable energy use jump month-over-month, from June, 2018, to July, 2018, based on percentage of contribution?
    • 1%
    • 3%
    • 12%
    • 16%
  • how far did coal usage drop in the United States, on a percentage basis, as percent contributed, month-over-month?
    • 1%
    • 4%
    • 11%
    • 17%
  • to what extent did renewable energy overtake coal in providing electricity in the US?
    • a large extent (greater than 10%)
    • a moderate extent (greater than 5%)
    • only a slight extent (about 1%)
  • on a zero-emission combined basis (nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar) to what extent did their contribution increase month-over-month (July, 2018 over June, 2018)
    • to a great extent (greater than 10%)
    • a moderate extent (about 5%)
    • only a slight extent (less than 1%) 
The report and the link will be posted later.

Renewable Energy As Percentage Of Overall Energy Provider Declines In July, 2018

I missed this when it was released September 26, 2018, by the EIA: the "Electric Power Monthly."

I've never paid attention to it; I'm not sure I've even seen it before. Whatever.

It's too much for me to go through on an early Sunday morning when I'm enjoying sunrise over beautiful Flathead Lake, west of Glacier Park, Montana. So I will rely on the summary over at oilprice which I have not fact-checked.

If the data is correct as reported it, is very, very interesting.

The first thing that jumped out at me: the natural gas story that will unfold this winter, if it's a cold winter. The historic data suggests that natural gas will be the energy story this winter (2018 - 2019) but now the National Association of Natural Gas Producers (or whatever the name is) suggests there will be no problem getting enough natural gas to New England and the northeast corridor this winter.

The writer reports the month-over-month change. It would have been better to see the July, 2018, data vs the July, 2017, data rather than the 2018 July vs June, 2018 data. Nonetheless, the report is an eye-opener on many, many levels. 

This will be re-posted.

From the linked "Electric Power Monthly":
  • the most recent data lags two months; the most recent data is for July, 2018
  • total amount of electricity generated in July, 2018, was the second highest amount generated for any single month since January, 2013 -- this is worthy of re-posting
  • US electricity generation in US: almost 70% generated by coal and natural gas
  • coal-based electricity in the US in July, 2018: increased month-over-month, almost by one percentage point
  • natural gas-based electricity in the US in July, 2018: increased by slightly more than five percentage points
  • natural gas-based electricity reached an unprecedented 40+%; up from 35% the previous month (year-over-year would be a better comparison)
  • nuclear power:
    • generated a bit more on a percentage basis month-over-month, but
    • due to increase in total generation, the percentage of electricity provided by nuclear energy actually decreased -- from almost 19% in June, 2018, to about 18% in July
  • renewable energy, July 2018: 
    • All renewables: contribution from All Renewables at 13.01 percent fell further below that from Nuclear at 17.67 percent, similar to July 2017 when the ramp up of total generation resulted in the percentage contribution from All Renewables falling further below that from Nuclear
    • Solar: the absolute contribution from Solar declined from it’s all time high in June (2018) of 10,880 GWh to 10,049 GWh, with the corresponding percentage contribution declining to 2.45 percent as opposed to 2.93 percent in June
    • Wind: he amount of electricity generated by Wind decreased by almost 35 percent, from 24,411 GWh to 15,897 GWh and coupled with the increased total generation, the percentage contribution declined from 6.58 percent to 3.88 percent in July;
    • Hydro: the contribution from Hydro decreased 13.53 percent from 27415 GWh in June to 23706 GWh, resulting in the percentage contribution decreasing from 7.39 percent in June to 5.78 percent.  
    • Combined wind and solar: The combined contribution from Wind and Solar decreased to 6.33 percent from 9.51 percent in June. 
    • Combined non-hydro-renewable energy: Consequently the contribution from Non-Hydro Renewables also decreased to 7.23 percent from 10.48 percent. 
    • All zero-emission energy, including nuclear: The contribution of zero emission and carbon neutral sources, that is, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, landfill gas and other biomass decreased to 30.68 percent from 36.64 percent in June.  

Week 40: September 30, 2018 -- October 6, 2018

International
Saudi's solar energy project comes to screeching halt -- even before first solar panel is installed

National:
Politically, this was the week that all about Brett Kavanaugh, confirmed as new US Supreme Court justice
Unemployment at 3.7% at 49-year low
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "Dow") closed at an all-time record high this past week
Talk of $100-oil quickly dissipated; back in trading range
GE's CEO summarily fired after less than 14 months on the job

Top North Dakota energy stories from Geoff Simon.

Operations
Oasis hits the sweet spot in Willow Creek
Oasis' Hanover Federal wells in Willow Creek will be huge
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed
A reader updates Brooklyn oil field
Some incredible Bruin E&P wells to come off the confidential list

Bakken 2.5
Life cycle of MRO's Voigt well in Baily oil field
well drilled back in 2011, comes back on line, stronger than ever
Every well coming off confidential list in 4Q16 has been completed

Fracking
The estimated cost to re-frack

Refineries
Meridian's Davis refinery near park, southwest North Dakota, on track

Miscellaneous
North Dakota #1 in lignite production after Texas closes lignite power plants
NDIC's "Ordinary High Water Mark" Study accepted by NDIC; private individuals to lose minerals they held since 1950

Commentary:
OPEC is not the reason for high oil prices

Bakken economy
Renewable energy plant based on straw to be built in Jamestown, ND; to provide biofuel for California

Humor:
Is US Department of State suggesting that Venezuela is hiding "spare capacity"?