Thursday, September 27, 2018

Anticipating Friday -- September 27, 2018

US crude oil monthly production: EIA, link here. From a reader:
EIA monthlies coming out tomorrow.

JUN (reported 2 months delay) was at 10.674 million bopd.  The peak oilers are predicting 10.55.  I am thinking more like 10.8.  But always interesting to watch (like the NDIC report).
Ryder Cup.

Kavanaugh vote. 11 - 10.

OHWM: results of the ordinary high water mark study accepted by the NDIC.

The usual: active rigs, RBN Energy, wells coming off confidential list.

The usual: market; WTI; TSLA; AAPL; Bakken operators;

Hard copy letter to Senator Heitkamp (e-mail sent earlier this evening).

Lobster book.

Relatively free day.

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Soybeans

From a reader:
The Minnesota soybean trade group says: “Taiwanese trade officials and Minnesota business leaders Thursday signed a letter of intent to purchase more than a billion dollars of soybeans from farmers in Minnesota and Iowa over the next two years. . . . The pledged maximum value of the purchase is to be up to $1.56 billion, which equates to approximately 3.75 million acres of soybeans.”
The full article is at https://mnsoybean.org/blog-msrpc/after-taiwan-trip-msrpc-notches-billion-dollar-trade-win-for-mn-farmers/.

It sounds like this is a response to the trade trouble with China. Not anything related to North Dakota, but it’s quite possible the USDA is encouraging direct food export talks with Taiwan to undermine China and of course help farmers.

My thoughts:
I'm sure Trump's team "suggested" to Taiwan this might be a nice quid pro quo for all the military aid we give Taiwan .... and, at the same time, stick a chopstick in Premie Xi's eye. LOL
So, happy together ... how is the weather?

Happy Together, The Turtles

The Bakken -- It Simply Never Quits -- September 27, 2018

This was recently posted, but I missed a small but interesting point. When ONEOK announced it was going to build yet another natural gas processing plant, I was unaware that they had not yet completed the one they are currently building, Demicks Lake 1. From The Bismarck Tribune:
A company that’s constructing a new natural gas processing plant in the core of the Bakken announced plans this week for a second plant, doubling the size of the project.
Oneok plans to construct Demicks Lake II in McKenzie County, adding 200 million cubic feet per day of processing capacity.
Demicks Lake I, which also will have a capacity of 200 million cubic feet per day, is under construction but expected to reach capacity soon after it’s complete, Terry Spencer, Oneok president and CEO, said in a news release.
That increased the need for the Demicks Lake II plant, a $410 million project.
I think this simply incredible. It's a big story that yet another natural gas plant is being built, but to learn that it would be oversubscribed as soon as it was completed, and would necessitate expansion or another processing plant altogether.

**********************************
Manic Monday

Yeah, I know it's Thursday, but "manic Thursday" doesn't work. LOL.

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

I try to ride my bike every day, even during the winter. I remember riding during snow days in Boston. Slipping and sliding.

Every day I ride, I grade the riding conditions on a scale of 0 - 10, in half point increments, based on: wind; precipitation/humidity; and, temperature (seasonally adjusted).

Temperature is seasonally adjusted because one can "dress" for the weather. The other two are not seasonally adjusted --

Best riding weather is 8.0 - 10.0, obviously. I generally won't ride if the number is below 6.0. Vertical snow might drop a half point, but horizontal snow easily knocks off four or five points. Rain? Depends. But a light drizzle, only a half point or so. A sudden downpour, four or five points. I won't start out in a downpour, but I occasionally get caught in one (poor planning on my part and I deserve no sympathy).

I do not allow any day to get a grade greater than 10.0 but if I could, today's grade would have been 12 to 14. They used to call this weather "Indian summer" but to be politically correct, I guess we either call it "Native American summer" or ... whatever.

Wow, it was gorgeous today.

**************************
What A Great Country

I biked to Starbucks this morning, about 6:00 a.m. Sunrise at 7:14 a.m. I had been there about 90 minutes. At 8:00 a.m. my wife telephoned to tell me the "GasCap" light lit up on the dashboard of our very old Chrysler minivan, closely followed by the "EngineLight."

I left my back pack; my computer; my cellphone -- everything -- on "my" chair at Starbucks, and promptly got up and walked up to the Firestone Service Center about a block away. I told my wife I would meet her there. She arrived shortly thereafter. Chris, at Firestone, said he would take care of it, but he said the $100 diagnostic test that was mandated by the company would not be worth it. He said to go down the street to Chrysler and buy a new gas cap ("do not buy an after-market gas cap") -- if that doesn't solve the problem, he would gladly see me and take care of the problem.

My wife arrived, we drove down to Chrysler, and got the gas cap. The problem was solved.

My wife brought me back to Starbucks -- my stuff was still there -- someone saw me leave earlier and wondered -- but with my bike still there, they knew I would be coming back ...

Later, my wife called to confirm that the"EngineLight" also disappeared. I bought a $20 Jimmy John's gift card and gave it to Chris at Firestone on my bike ride home.

*****************************
The Bakken

I'm not going to post any new data here, but suffice to say, the Bakken is staggering. Absolutely staggering. I hope folks reading the blog are getting that same feeling. If not, I'm obviously not doing my job.

Elenore, The Turtles

Poll Results -- Kavanaugh Nomination -- September 27, 2018

The following was e-mailed to the addressee at 8:24 p.m., Thursday, September 27, 2018. A hard copy will be mailed tomorrow.

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Auto-Reply



Page views, 10:37 p.m., Thursday, September 27, 2018: 11,446,980.

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September 27, 2018

The Honorable Senator Mary K. Heitkamp
US Senate
SH-516 Hart Senate Office Buildng
Washington, DC 20510


Subj: Judge Kavanaugh nomination

Dear Senator:

I am the webmaster of the "Million Dollar Way," a blog which takes its name from the nickname Williston residents gave US Highway 2 & 85 on the north wide of Williston following the first oil boom back in the 1950s.

The blog is focused on the Bakken oil boom. A google search of "Bakken oil blog" suggests it is the most frequently visited blog for those interested in this subject. At the height of the boom it generated about 6,000 "visits" per day. Now, that number is around 3,000.

Rarely I place a poll on the blog. Today's poll was quick and to the point and will be "live" for only 24 hours:
  • Kavanaugh: "thumbs up" or" thumbs down."
The committee hearing in which the accused and the accuser testified ended about two hours ago. The poll results as of 8:07 p.m. September 27, 2018:

  • Kavanaugh:
    • thumbs up: 49 votes (86%)
    • thumbs down: 8 votes (14%)
The poll is unscientific; the likely voter is someone who is interested in the Bakken oil boom.

For your consideration.

Most respectfully,


Bruce Oksol


Random Update Of The Kennedy-Miles Wells -- September 27, 2018

The Miles-Kennedy wells are tracked here.

A reader sent me the August, 2017, production number for the wells based on his pay stub:
  • 33220 - Miles 8-6H1  1,423
  • 33221 - Miles 7-6H 29,397
  • 33222 - Miles 6-6H2 27,289
  • 33223 - Miles 5-6H   11,995
  • 33224 - Kennedy 8-31H1 11,025
  • 33225 - Kenney 7-31H 45,053
  • 33226 - Kennedy 6-31H2 20,733
  • 33227 - Kennedy 5-31H 16,497
The following has been minimally edited and is not ready for prime time. Opinions only. Idle chatter. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken:
When I saw the numbers I replied:
As I told the other reader regarding the production numbers from his pay stub -- the numbers that operators are now reporting for the Bakken are simply incredible. 
Remember, when we were excited about seeing 3,000 bbls / month for a new well? This gets back to the percent of original oil in place (OOIP) that operators are getting out of primary production. At one time, they said only 1- 3% return of OOIP; then up to as much as 12%.  When you go from 3% to 6%, that's double the production. Imagine going to 12% -- one wonders if we are starting to see that? Idle chatter.
The writer replied:
In the early days, a $700 check was unbelievable.  The 3,000-barrel-a-month well was great and if we got to 175,000 barrels, it took a really long time.  Now we are looking at wells in the same area that could easily surpass 175,000 in less than 6 months.   
And of course, we know that they will drill upwards of 24 wells in these sections, all with higher monthly output.   
I’m interested in the latest USGS survey that is supposed to come out next year.  The numbers have to increase exponentially as to OOIP and prove again that this is a world class asset.   
I look to other sections in this area where Oasis is looking at more than 50 wells per drilling unit.  Can you imagine 45K barrels a well x 50 wells per month?   Mind blowing to say the least.   
In addition, the parent Kennedy and Miles wells (Kennedy 3-4, Miles 3-4) are now at 12,000 barrels a month.  Prior to these latest wells being drilled, they were only at 3,000 barrels a month on a good month.  
Time to send that note to Jane Nielson and Art Berman.

**************************
Previously Post July, 2018, Data From The Same Reader

I was going to"erase" this data when I got the official NDIC data, but I've decided to keep the data for archival purposes.

A reader was kind enough to send me an update on production of these wells based on his pay stub. I cannot verify these and there may be typographical errors. When I get the official NDIC data, I will update the data. But a huge "thank you" to the reader for sending this note providing an update now that neighboring wells have been completed and the parent wells (Kennedy 3 and Kennedy 4 are back on line).

From the reader:
 
The pay statements don't show how many days the wells were producing. With that being said, two of the parent wells had a substantial increase in production after coming back on line. 
  • the Kennedy 3 well:
    • July (unknown number of days): 15,509 bbls oil -- this is an old well; completed in February, 2015, and the most recent production (July, 2018) was the fifth-highest producing month in the life of this well
    • June (22 days): 8,243 bbls
    • prior to that: in the 4,000-bbl/month range
  • the Kennedy 4 well (same comments as above with regard to number of days):
    • July: 12,337 bbls of oil (fifth most productive month; also completed February, 2015)
    • prior to that: in the 5,000-bbl/month range
  • as for the new wells, they reported the following (unknown number of days):
    • Miles 5 - no production 
    • Kennedy 5 - no production
    • Miles 6 - 5,615 bbls
    • Kennedy 6 - 5,198 bbls
    • Miles 7 - 19,031 bbls
    • Kennedy 7 - 14,654 bbls
    • Kennedy 8 - 9,810 bbls

WTI Holds At $72; Active Rigs At 65 -- September 27, 2018

Active rigs:

$72.19😁9/27/201809/27/201709/27/201609/27/201509/27/2014
Active Rigs65573271190

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Fields: Alger, East Fork
  • Comments:
Thirteen permits renewed:
  • Enerplus (7): the "spider" permits in Dunn County renewed;
  • Newfield (3): three Sturgeon permits in McKenzie County renewed;
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Mongoose permits in McKenzie County renewed
  • Hunt: one Oakland permit in Mountrail County renewed
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported at completed:
  • 31961, 2,749,  XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, t8/18; cum 15K 7/18;
  • 34143, 1,293, Whiting, Rennerfeldt 14-34-6TFHU, Stony Creek, t9/18; cum --;
  • 34144, 1,807, Whiting, Earl 14-34-1HU, Stony Creek, t9/18; cum --
  • 34145, 1,641, Whiting, Rennerfeldt 14-34-1HU, Stony Creek, t9/18; cum -- ;
  • 33462,  n/d, CLR, Omlid 5-19H2, Elidah, t--; cum --

The Road To New England -- September 27, 2018

Outages could threaten New England's natural gas market -- Genscape.

Look at the conclusion:
New England is currently forecasted to cool over the next two weeks, bringing significant downside risk, but unexpected heat waves could cause power demand spikes.
Cold snaps could create residential/commercial gas demand for heating, which takes priority over gas demand for power. The ISONE demand forecast for September 24 – 25 only predicts ~15.3 GW of peak load over the next three days.
Power demand was much higher during the last major Stony Point outage on August 16 and 17, peaking at 22.6 GW. During the last few major Stony Point outages, Algonquin Citygate prices did not blow out, but merely spiked.
During the outage this past August, AGT basis spiked to $1.13 after averaging $0.29 for the month up to that point.
Still, this is Algonquin’s longest and most impactful maintenance event in recent memory, and plenty of upside risk abounds in New England’s gas and power markets. Genscape’s power and natural gas analysts will continue to monitor Algonquin and ISONE and update this blog in real-time as these outages progress.
I've read a lot of "expert" analyses in the oil and gas sector over the past eleven (11) years -- since 2007 -- and this one really surprises me. No one has to "read between the lines.

This blows me away:
During the last few major Stony Point outages, Algonquin Citygate prices did not blow out, but merely spiked.
During the outage this past August, AGT basis spiked to $1.13 after averaging $0.29 for the month up to that point.

Staggering Production In The Bakken, Almost 100,000 Bbls From One Well In The Bakken -- September 27, 2018


Yesterday, along with graphics and additional information, I posted this production data for this Bruin Fort Berthold well.

  • 31774, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, t--; cum --:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20186033816676


For newbies: 60,000 bbls of crude oil in one month is incredible. Some wells don't produce that much oil in two years. We are seeing more and more such wells in the Bakken. Although unusual, I'm not sure I can call #31774 production data below an "outlier."

After posting that note above, a reader sent me this note, with regard to that well:

  • You showed last months production on this well   60,338 bbls 
  • Look at this month:   96,182 bbls   My royalty statement.
Almost 100,000 bbls in one month, verified from a pay statement. I replied to the reader:
Wow, I know I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken but I think folks are way under-estimating what the Bakken is capable of producing. That is absolutely amazing. 
 Memo to self: notes need to be sent to Jane Nielson and Art Berman. The former said there might be "some oil" in the Bakken. The latter said he saw the beginning the end of the Bakken two years ago. One of the two is a recognized expert in the US oil sector. 



The Results Of The Ordinary High Water Mark Should Be Released Today Or Tomorrow -- September 27, 2018

Last Friday, September 21, 2018, we were told the NDIC would release the results of the "Ordinary High Water Mark" study "this week." This week ends tomorrow. At least "normal business hours."

Link here.

Trading Volume: Dow Jones Industrial -- September 27, 2018

Updates 

 Later, 4:15 p.m. CDT:


Original Post 


Electricity Rates In North Dakota Coming Down -- September 27, 2018

Link here.

I know the utilities are always quick to ask for rate changes so this must have simply been an oversight by MDU forgetting to request a decrease in electric rates for its customers. Perhaps MDU did make the request; I don't know. But the article says MDU was "ordered" to reduce its rates.

For those who wonder where this came from, one word: Trump.

In January, the North Dakota Public Service Commission ordered the company to report savings from its reduced federal income tax rate. As a result, it was determined MDU should return $8.5 million annually to customers, Commissioner Julie Fedorchak said.
After some discussion, the commissioners unanimously voted to amend the original proposal, which would have allowed the company to keep $300,000, to instead give the full value of the tax credit to ratepayers.


$8.5 million / 410,000 / 12 = $1.73 / customer / month, I guess. Assuming I did the math correctly. A typical monthly bill, I suppose, would be about $250 so, now, about $249. 

I assume MDU will add a processing fee of $2.50/month to cover the administrative headaches involved, including a letter to all its customers them they will see a lower electricity rate in the coming months. Just a hunch about the processing fee. 

Note: the NDPSC ruling, I would assume applies only to MDU's ND customers, but that's where the majority of its customers are located.

Gotta Drown Out The Noise -- T+45 -- September 27, 2018

Just call me angel of the morning, came out in 1968 ---

Just Call Me Angel Of The Morning, Merrilee Rush


And the last one for the day, the girl with the dragon tattoo ...

The Immigrant Song, Karen O, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

And now I forget what I was going to post? Oh, yes, this one. No hurricanes this summer. Florence was a tropical storm by the time it hit landfall -- earliest hurricane now projected no sooner than October 15, and the season ends sometime in November....

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The Quota Page

Lessons From The Lobster: Eve Marder's Work in Neuroscience, Charlotte Nassim, c. 2018.

From page 12:
In autumn 1965, Eve went to college intending to become a civil rights lawyer. Her mother, Dorothy Marder, had become a well-known photographer, chronicling the social activism of the late 1960s to the 1980s, such as the anti-nuclear and anti-Vietnam movements. Eve didn't even consider science, although as a little kid when asked what she wanted to be when she grew up, she used to say "a scientist" because the first time she said it she got praise and attention. Eve wanted to go to a West Coast college, but her parents vetoed that idea.

Instead, she went to Brandeis, then a young university, still small but with a growing reputation. It had been founded in 1948 at a time when Harvard and Yale ran quotas to limit the number of Jewish students and faculty.
It never quits. Yale University is now under investigation for discriminating against Asian students.

A most famous Yale alumnus "testifies" today in the US Senate chambers.

Back to Eve Marder. Slightly younger, but a contemporary of Lynn Margulis. Eve was quite a bit younger than James Watson; his book came out in 1953. Marder was born 1948.

This is an incredibly difficult book to read, once one gets into the "science" part of the book. I've read much of the book, but I started by reading chapter 3 and then part of chapter 4 before it got too depressing. Then back to the introduction.

Now I'm reading chapter one, her college years. Wow! It brings back incredible memories. The late 60's. I missed the social unrest of the early 60's -- two reasons: a) geographical; and, b) timing. I missed it by two or three years if one uses the Common Era calendar. But graduating from high school in 1969 fifty miles from Tioga, ND , I was twenty years behind what was going on in Massachusetts or Berkeley.  Or the rest of the world, for that matter.

But, wow, I wish I could post the five or six pages that Charlotte Nassim writes about Eve Marder's college years.

1967: she is beginning her junior year; switches abruptly from politics to biology. To switch to biology, she had to have completed a course in organic chemistry. Her only option: a summer course at Harvard. She struggles but gets the necessary "B" to have the credit transferred to Brandeis.

Brand new: the word "neuroscience" was first used in 1964. And that was where, in 1967, Eve Marder was headed.

In 1967, when Eve wrote her first "real" college biology paper, inhibitory transmission in the brain had not been described. That would become Eve's focus: neuronal inhibition.

Eve's first real research experience began -- as luck would have it -- in Albert Szent-Györgyi's laboratory at Brandeis. From wiki:
Albert Szent-Györgyi von Nagyrápolt September 16, 1893 – October 22, 1986) was a Hungarian biochemist who won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1937. He is credited with first isolating vitamin C and discovering the components and reactions of the citric acid cycle. He was also active in the Hungarian Resistance during World War II and entered Hungarian politics after the war. 
From wiki:
Brandeis University is an American private research university in Waltham, Massachusetts, 9 miles west of Boston. 
Founded in 1948 as a non-sectarian, coeducational institution sponsored by the Jewish community, Brandeis was established on the site of the former Middlesex University. The university is named after Louis Brandeis, the first Jewish Justice of the U.S Supreme Court. In 2015, it had a total enrollment of 5,532 students on its suburban campus spanning over 235 acres. The institution offers more than 43 majors and 46 minors, and two thirds of the undergraduate classes have 20 students or fewer. It is a member of Association of American Universities since 1985 and the Boston Consortium which allows students to cross-register to attend courses at other institutions including Boston College, Boston University and Tufts University.

The university has a strong liberal arts focus, and is known to attract a geographically and economically diverse student body, with 72% of its non-international undergraduates being out state, 50% of full-time undergraduates receiving need-based financial aid, 13.5% being recipients of the federal Pell Grant, and having the 8th largest international student population of any university in the United States.
And I'll end with this, from page 16:
In the academic year 1968 to 1969, students all over the country were protesting against the Vietnam War. The Brandeis campus boiled over with sit-ins and strikes. Even couldn't possibly be a scab. Her way out was to work in the lab in the evenings and on weekends, having convinced herself that htese hours didn't count: if she worked in her own time, she wasn't breaking the strike.

Szent-Gyorgyi had a different and much more serious attitude toward politics and political engagement, shaped in Hungary. He laughed, or perhaps scoffed, at the ruse, but he strongly advised her not to go to Berkeley for graduate school because of the danger of being caught up in politics.
I graduated from high school in 1969. The love of my life in the early 1970's was two years ahead of me; she would have been caught up in those same sit-ins at Rutgers.

Strapped In -- T+45 -- September 27, 2018

Strapped in for takeoff! Let the fireworks begin!


I don't hardly know her, crimson and clover, over and over, and over and over, and over and over ...

Crimson and Clover, Tommy James and the Shondells

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+45 -- September 27, 2018

Decreased royalties: a reader wrote me this morning telling me that her royalty income was cut in half month-over-month -- largest decline in recent memory. No reason given. But if Iowa Supreme Court scuttles the DAPL, expect more of the same. Four acres and a mule.

The market is surging:
  • DOW (irrelevant): up 110 points after a slow start this morning
  • all other major indices up
  • AAPL: up $4.76 (up over 2%)
  • YUM: flirting with 52-week highs
  • YUMC: well off its highs
  • EW: hit an intra-day 52-week high
  • COP: up about half a percent
  • CVX: up about a third of a percent
  • UNP: up about 3/4th of a percent -- thank you Ms Why-own-a LaDuke when you can rent one?
  • PLUG: down a penny;
  • OAS: up 2%
  • NOG: over $4, now; up 4% for the day; on a roll
  • HES: up almost 2% today; 
  • EOG: up over 1% today
  • DNR: up over 1% today, trading at $6.22

BR's Jerome Wells In North Fork -- September 27, 2018

The wells:
  • 17291, 756, BR, Jerome 1-15H, t2/09; cum 252K 12/18;
  • 30282, 2,806, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, t9/16; cum 256K 12/18;
  • 25202, 1,536, BR, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, t9/16; cum 3291K 12/18; 
  • 25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, t8/16; 369K 12/18;
  •  
  • 30547, 348, BR, Merton 41-15TFH ULW, t10/18; cum 160K 12/18;
  • 30221, 566, BR, Merton 41-15MBH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 31K 12/18;
  • 30222, 470, BR, Jerome 41-15MBH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 20K 12/18;
  • 30223, 378, BR, Jerome 41-15TFH, North Fork, t9/18; cum 248K 12/18;
The graphic:





Production for past several months:

17291:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20181300200
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20181011941196355156715420
BAKKEN2-20181431833126912395939240

30282:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20183056265625301410711107050
BAKKEN6-201830486148683087762476200
BAKKEN5-201831587059173518941394080
BAKKEN4-20183096159574454910601105950
BAKKEN3-201831725272973534950294960
BAKKEN2-201828633262913626942694210
BAKKEN1-201827729472553829717852591916

25202:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201831499549984752897584850
BAKKEN6-20183046034613458520998204590
BAKKEN5-20183157495744501622157216080
BAKKEN4-20183054725478486019818192920
BAKKEN3-20183167586836465518559180600
BAKKEN2-20182876757626523322238217710
BAKKEN1-20182788968908683318529145433457
BAKKEN12-201789933992765462691326258494
BAKKEN11-2017121489414793882230688305780

25200:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201831730173123860563751820
BAKKEN6-20182972487246379018095177520
BAKKEN5-20183176787674394216307159670
BAKKEN4-20183074877477405115776154930
BAKKEN3-20183176467732367414141137890
BAKKEN2-20182885838543440818784185310
BAKKEN1-2018271124611219509114778121932297

Morning Note Has Been Posted -- Natural Gas Fill Rate Is Not Getting Any Better -- September 27, 2018

Natural gas fill rate from EIA this morning:


Jobs: link here -- 214K (link here)
  • last week: 201K
  • forecast: 215K
  • actual: pending
2Q GDP: link here -- 4.2% (link here)
  • consensus: 4.3% -- does anyone here recall a GDP increase of 4.3% in the past two decades?
Real consumer spending --
  • consensus: 3.8%
The Bakken is back. Actually it's been back for a year or so, but Rigzone's lead story today -- "Move Over, Permian, The Bakken Is Making A Comeback." Article includes a great photo of an oil well three miles southeast of Williston. [Of course, great news until the Iowa Supreme Court says those four acres belong to the farmer, and the DAPL needs to butt out.]

Totally cool: Total sees $100 oil. Nine out of ten now say we will see $100 oil. Goldman Sachs says oil will stay in the $70/$80 range. oilprice sees $1,000 oil. But doesn't say exactly when.

Oofta! Norway's central bank fears an oil price spike. What, me worry?

Spirit in the Sky, Norman Greenbaum


Oil surges on prospects of supply crunch. Bloomberg. Up about 30 cents on $70 oil. Okay, a little surge.

Grandchildren need shoes. We can live with $75/hour. UK strike canceled.

Got WTI? It turns out that "popular WTI crude options are gaining global appeal." Wow. Who would have thought? Making America great. Again.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, September 27, 2018
34288, 1,126, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 4H, Oliver, 60 stages, 15.67 million lbs, t4/18; cum 81K 7/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20182271912007
6-20182183412134
5-20181913611212
4-20181731811529

34287, 1,074, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 3TFH, Oliver, 60 stages; 15.7 million lbs, t4/18; cum 76K 7/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20181905310377
6-20182009112517
5-20181817711612
4-20181849010851

34286, 1,108, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 2H, Oliver, 60 stages, 15.7 million lbs, t4/18; cum 80K 7/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2018132924579
6-20182263613939
5-20182119012573
4-20182209512589

33579, 2,072, CLR Mountain Gap 11-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages, 15.3 million lbs, t6/18; cum 71K 7/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20183433923119
6-20183554436896
4-20182280
3-20185170

30827, 1,740, WPX, Behr 19-18HT, Reunion Bay, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t7/18; cum 34K after 31 days;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2018334746217

29690, drl, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, no production data,


Active rigs:

$72.32😄😄9/27/201809/27/201709/27/201609/27/201509/27/2014
Active Rigs66573271190

RBN Energy: understanding Cheniere's Sabine Pass feedgas helps evaluate future LNG projects.
U.S. LNG exports have climbed from zero three years ago to more than 3 Bcf/d now, and export capacity is set to grow to more than 10 Bcf/d by 2023. With the U.S. emerging as a dominant player in the global LNG landscape, international players are now increasingly susceptible to the day-to-day fluctuations of the U.S. natural gas market — a highly liquid, fungible and interconnected arena that’s propelled by constantly shifting transportation economics. The global LNG market inevitably is also moving toward spot-oriented trading based on short-term economic conditions. Thus, prospective buyers of U.S. LNG considering pre-FID projects increasingly need to understand the ever-changing U.S. gas flow and pricing dynamics. At the same time, U.S. market participants trying to understand how 10 Bcf/d of LNG exports will affect the domestic market also will need to closely track LNG activity, including feedgas flows and prices. In today’s blog — which launches our new LNG Voyager service — we look at how U.S. onshore gas market dynamics are affecting gas supply costs at the Sabine Pass LNG facility, and considers what this might mean for several of the pre-FID projects.
As you’ve probably figured out by now, today’s blog is a naked advertorial for our new LNG Voyager service, a report featuring U.S. natural gas and LNG insights for the global market. Before we get to our analysis, allow us a moment here to provide a bit of background about this new report. Given the significance of the burgeoning U.S. LNG exports market — both to domestic and global trade — we’ve developed a comprehensive fundamentals tool to closely track the metrics, milestones and impacts of these shifts as they unfold.

But as we alluded to above, this is just the beginning. There are four more projects on the way. Additionally, there are more Northeast takeaway pipeline expansions in the works that will allow Marcellus/Utica production to balloon to nearly 40 Bcf/d over the next five years, up from about 29 Bcf/d currently, with a major chunk of that incremental volume targeting LNG export demand along the Gulf Coast (see Dog Days Are Over). Feedgas pipelines are feeling the growing pains of the influx of gas supply, with constraints developing on existing capacity. As the market adapts to the new realities that come with rising export demand, the global LNG market will face growing exposure to the day-to-day volatility of the U.S. gas market.