Saturday, September 22, 2018

Slawson's Wolverine Federal Wells

Slawson's sweet spot: the Wolverine Federal wells.

The graphic:


The wells:
34606,
23108, 767, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 446K 8/18;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2018311019095479406351801670
BAKKEN7-201824328140011159536086721996
BAKKEN6-20182415851127113342066667640
BAKKEN5-201820272928407305319612461168
BAKKEN4-2018125008982420201
BAKKEN3-201819728094700
BAKKEN2-2018256581613523558543708295
BAKKEN1-20183175517783311693807613224

21397, 1,004, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 1-31-30H, Elm Tree, t7/12; cum 388K 8/18;
34605,
34606,
34603,

34638,
24019, conf,
34639,
24020, conf,
34640,
24018, conf,

34634,
34635,
21398, 1,063, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 4-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/12; cum 467K 8/18;
23109, 1,217, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 2-31-30H, Elm Tree, t9/12; cum 350K 8/18;
34636,
34637,

Random Observation -- Statoil Seems To Be Picking Up The Pace -- September 22, 2018

I am currently going through all the "21XXX" permits -- one thousand permits for wells that were pretty much drilled back in 2012. I don't have the time or resources to do a really good statistical study, but it certainly seems that Statoil is starting to pick up the pace. A lot of their older wells, are showing better production all of a sudden, not enough to suggest re-fracking, but more likely re-working. Maybe a reader knows more about this than I do. Enquiring minds would like to know.

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For Those Who Have Already Forgotten All Their Names

IMG_0643

A Random Note On Statoil's Patent Gate / Heinz Wells In Sakakawea Oil Field -- September 22, 2018

When I first started blogging about the Bakken over a decade ago, I said that if "you had one well," you would eventually have four, maybe eight, possibly twelve, and possibly many more than that." I never even thought about the life cycle of the Bakken well at that time, but that adds a whole new dimension for mineral owners. 

Statoil bringing wells back on line that have been off line for up to two years of more. Two examples, so far:
  • 21244, 3,201, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 1H, Sakakawea, t4/12; cu 219K 7/18; went offline 4/16 at 1500 bbls/month; back online 4/18 at 6000 bbls/month, then 10,000 bbls/month in 6518; offline again 7/18;
  • 21245, 4,378, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 1H, Patent Gate, t4/12; cum 212K 7/18; went offline 3/16 at 1500 bbls/month; back online 5/18 at 6000 bbls/month, then 10,000 bbls/month in 6/18; offline again 7/18;
A 14-well pad:



The wells:
  • 32709,
  • 32710,
  • 29561,
  • 29558,
  • 32711,
  • 29560, see below,
  • 21244, see above,
  • 21245, see above,
  • 32712,
  • 29556,
  • 29559,
  • 29557,
  • 32713,
  • 32714,
One example:
  • 29560, 330, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea, t1/18; cum 60K 7/18; full production to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20182115080150302587719904130086896
BAKKEN6-20181275677585119551005466703384
BAKKEN5-20181283968440118521085063364514
BAKKEN4-201830206842087133252229911254710444
BAKKEN3-20181075057150129561604715679368
BAKKEN2-2018111160000
BAKKEN1-2018376965412689329163166


 


Flashback: EOG's Wayzetta 156-3329H, #21239 -- September 22, 2018

Flashback from 2012 (production data updated, as I always do):
The IPs for Tuesday, August 22, 2012, have been posted.
  • 21239, 1,315, EOG, Wayzetta 156-3329H, Parshall, t3/12; cum 832K 7/18; some can check the well file and tell me if I'm wrong, but it appears they used over 9 million pounds to frack in 42 stages; wow; and "holy mackeral," the gas units averaged 1,931 units and almost hit 9,000 units at the max; the original paperwork suggested this was to be a Three Forks well, but the report says it ended up targeting the middle Bakken; crossing from spud site in section 33, through northeast corner of section 32, and ending in section 29, this is slightly longer than a typical short lateral, at least from what I can tell (for newbies: I am an amateur at all this, and could be quite wrong). This well, already at 116,000 bbls cumulative, is on its way to being paid for; and, in less than three months. 
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2018313022303216175097081180
BAKKEN6-20183030493051161781175710
BAKKEN5-20183132193219145805978027
BAKKEN4-201830336333701667794753914
BAKKEN3-2018313617361418580387436350
BAKKEN2-201828339033601887106684038
BAKKEN1-201831363636323727709737398
BAKKEN12-20173138893974198785265921009
BAKKEN11-20173038463846183758648732471
BAKKEN10-2017314191428020984807364864
BAKKEN9-20173041854097200868229545487
BAKKEN8-20172741974126157807811926673
BAKKEN7-2017192521258814849448393956
BAKKEN6-20173041824192204810727165147

Mark Perry: Another Economist That Does Not Support Free Trade -- September 22, 2018

Updates

Later, 10:44 a.m. CDT: from a reader ..
Re: your blog bit about shopping at Walmart.
 
In our area, the impact of the tariffs on shopping volumes seems to be…….zero. Nada. On Thursday shopping trip to Wenatchee, Costco, Walmart, Fred Meyers. The stores were packed. Checkout lines full. If the tariffs are having an impact on shopping volume. Thank God. The lines would otherwise be impossible.
 
Just thought you would like to know.
Another reader noted that milk at Walmart costs less than bottled water.

Original Post
 
Of all people, I would have expected Mark Perry to be a "free trader," but apparently he supports:
  • Canadian tariffs of 375% on US dairy products
  • huge Chinese tariffs on American products
  • Chinese banning of US beef

On another note, I have not noticed any price increases of consequence at Walmart. I wonder if Mark shops at Walmart? I can't imagine. "Innocent" Americans ... whatever that means.

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Getting Ready For Saturday Morning Gymnastics ....

..... with her new toothbrush.


Idle Rambling On A Rainy Saturday Morning -- September 22, 2018

Peak oil? Maybe. Two stories coming out this past week. Russia may be facing peak oil production. Then the second story: Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabia worries that it may not be able to supply enough of the "right type" of oil.

The Saudi Arabia story is an interesting story. First, we've talked about this before. I said that if there is a shortage of oil with the Iranian sanctions it will be a shortage of the "right" kind of oil and because the story is too complicated to sort out for most traders, it seems, if the price of the "right oil" increases, it will pull the price of "all" oil higher.

The second reason the Saudi story is interesting: it gives the lie to Saudi's claims that it has inexhaustible spare capacity. Hardly. And look at the current production number: 10.4 million bopd -- that's basically where Saudi has been for years.10.4. And the US: easily at 11 million bopd, link here. I guess the all-time record was set last June at 10.7 million bopd. From Forbes, more recently:
We also know that weekly U.S. crude production has averaged an all-time record 11 million b/d for the past two weeks, a 16% boom since early-January. We've passed Russia to become the largest crude oil producer in the world, yet at over 13 million b/d, we have been the "largest oil producer" for years now. Although a very large one, "crude" is only a subset of "oil."
Indeed, the future shines even brighter for the U.S. oil industry: the International Energy Agency just reported: "the shale sector as a whole is on track to achieve, for the first time in its history, positive free cash flow in 2018." Investments were up 60% last year and are expected to be up another 20-25% in 2018.

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$30 Trillion

US household net worth: exceeds $100 trillion. Specifically, $107 trillion in 2Q18. But look at this, two quarters earlier, 4Q18: "only 98.7 trillion." I assume we are comparing apples to apples. If we are, that's incredible -- from less than $99 trillion to almost $107 trillion in six months. Inflation has been tame; inflation does not account for this increase. Home values do not account for this increase.

On another note, I guess it depends which movie you are watching, even if both movies are on the same (CNBC) network:
  • From earlier this summer: $30 trillion is about to change hands in the US. There's a lot of money about to change hands in the U.S. — $30 trillion to be exact. Baby boomers are the wealthiest generation in American history — and they're about to pass down those riches over the next few decades. It's the so-called great wealth transfer. Link here to CNBC. That was in July, 2018.
  • Earlier in the year, in May, 2018, "That $30 trillion great wealth transfer is a myth" -- link to CNBC.
So, what's the story?

The $30 trillion is accurate. But some argue that those with the $30 trillion are living longer and will spend it on themselves. Mostly for healthcare, I assume. And perhaps a trip around the moon. But does it matter whether $30 trillion is spent by the generation that "built it" or their heirs. It's still $30 trillion going into (mostly) the US economy.

Having said that, I attended a Schwab luncheon this past week and the financial advisors are all over this $30 trillion "wealth transfer."

It should be noted: under Trump, $22 million, per couple, is exempt from the death tax. Per person, $11 million. But note: this "sunsets" in 2025 and goes to zero.

My hunch: US congressmen and women are aware of the $30 trillion and anxious to get their hands on it. Under the next administration, regardless of party, things to watch:
  • the death tax exemption will be scaled back significantly, perhaps back to as slow at $5 million
  • if Congress dawdles, the stars could align in such a matter that the death tax exemption will go to zero for one full year
  • Roth IRAs will be taxed; possibly eliminated
  • increased SALT deductions will be restored for wealthy -- the New York -- Connecticut -- California coalition
  • the standard deduction might be rolled back slightly, but exemptions will be restored
  • tax brackets re-configured again, especially at the top level
  • consideration of a universal basic income
From dqydj.com. I don't know about you, but a jump from $8 million in 2013 to over $10 million in 2016 seems significant.
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 The Park

My expectations every time I visit the "north unit":


The largest buffalo herd I've seen at the park's "north unit" was about twenty head.

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The Book Page

Give People Money: How a Universal Basic Income Would End Poverty, yada, yada, yada ....., Annie Lowrey, c. 2018.
 

I paged through this book very, very quickly last night at Barnes and Noble. For some inexplicable reason it was shelved near the dinosaur books.

The author used examples from all over the world, and then settled on the idea that the ideal universal basic income (UBI) for the United States would be ..... drum roll ... $1,000 for each adult.

So, we have four 21-year-old milleninals living in a $1,000-rental unit with untaxed income of $48,000 / year. And legalized marijuana. What could possibly go wrong?

It appears that a household earning $60,000 has take home income of around $48,000 after federal and state income taxes, so in effect a UBI of $48,000 equates to about $56,000 or more for those earning that amount. Throw in free healthcare, and that $48,000 for four millennials quickly becomes $65,000 or more.

Of course, those on UBI would get free healthcare, so the UBI will be significantly "more valuable" than $1,000 / month.

Whether the writer addressed the issue of cost of living in NYC vs Jamestown, ND, I don't know, but I doubt it.

But the big question for me: how was $1,000 / month determined? Why not $500 / month? Or $10,000 / month? Of course we know how $1,000 was picked. It was the "Goldilocks" number that would play well on NPR, and it has a nice ring to it. $500 seems skimpy; $10,000 seems beyond the pale -- at least for some, I suppose.

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What Condition My Condition Is In


Week 38: September 16, 2018 -- September 22, 2018

Geoff Simon's top stories of the year:
McKenzie County continues to grow
Watford City will site new elementary school in the Fox Hills subdivision

International
TransMountain: Canada orders new environmental impact study; study due in 22 weeks (one-half year); then a half-year to debate; and then back in court
KMI to sell all Canadian assets; Canada is closed to new business;
Peak oil? Perhaps in Russia

National
Keystone XL won't harm environment; actually if they considered the decrease in rail traffic, the pipeline will make things better; operator will make final funding decision next year
WTI back to $71
Gasoline demand increasing. Finally.
Bakken beats Permian, Eagle Ford on percent growth month-over-month

Making America great again
Main Street intersects Wall Street: jobless claims at 49-year low; stocks at record highs 

Bakken 2.5
Eighteen new permits -- including a QEP 12-well pad -- and MRO reports six incredible DUCs
One example of many: an XTO Fenton Federal will with high jump in production
North Dakota flaring getting worse

Operations
EOG fracking in the Parshall; and, here; and, here;
EOG's monster wells in Clarks Creek
Coming out of nowhere: Oasis now the 4th largest producer in North Dakota
Life-cycle of a Bakken well
Bear Creek moves to the top of the list: crude oil production / well; and, here;
Update on MRO's Lars well
Update on CLR's Buelingo

Natural gas
Permian natural gas plunging to 50 cents/unit

Pipelines
DAPL in peril  

Bakken economy
Progress at Williston's new airport continues
Conlin's Furniture to close
Watford City posts largest jump in elementary school enrollment

Miscellaneous
Final Missouri River Study to be released next week

Commentary
The dreaded Bakken decline; and here;
Why the EU advocated for renewable energy; they had little choice
MRO likely to be names "North Dakota's operator of the year"; and, here;
Filloon on MRO
MRO corporate update