Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Evening Wrap -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 12, 2018

Doubling down. I have to laugh. Going into today's Apple presentation, "everybody" said Apple had to "come down on their prices." So, what did Apple do? Raised prices significantly. Sure, they brought in a lower-priced phone .... at $749 ... but the top end is pushing $1,500. But these phones are heavily subsidized by the carriers. And, yes, folks will trade up.  Bottom line: bigger, pricier phones. What a great country. And now, get this: one phone -- two telephone lines. Wow. I did not see that one coming -- and apparently neither did anyone else. Politicians with mistresses are going to love that feature.

Can Americans afford these expensive phones? You decide. From The Washington Post, "middle-class income rose above $61,000 for the first time every," according to Trump's census bureau.

Hurricane Florence: speaking of Trump, apparently the president called Mother Nature, threatened the old lady with sanctions if she didn't moderate the storm. Mother Nature blinked. The hurricane has been downgraded from Category 4 to Category 3 -- and hasn't even hit landfall yet. Can't make this stuff up.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

UNP: thank goodness for "my" readers. I would have missed this story. Union Pacific's dividend has been raised three times in the last year and the payout ratio is still very low. I was not paying attention. I did not know that. I've been accumulating UNP for the past eighteen months or so. Completely unaware about the dividend story. Better lucky than smart, my dad always used to say. My dad was both smart and lucky.

One of my mom's favorite singers:

A Statue of a Fool, RVS

Jamie Dimon's salary: in 2017, total compensation, $29.5 million, let's call it $30 million. Meanwhile, in Chicago, it looks like the city is one step closer to doling out $6 million / year to give 1,000 families $500/month -- a proof-of-concept to see if this will end poverty as we know it in our lifetime. Or proof-of-concept to see if it will get Rahm Emanuel the Democratic nomination for president to run against the Donald in 2020. I know the first thing a Chicagoan would buy if given $500 -- a gun to protect himself/herself. Then a deep dish pizza at Tano's Pizzeria.

Look At All The Activity In This Area -- September 12, 2018

The wells:
  • 33869, conf, MRO, Wickett 24-35TFH, Bailey,
  • 33870, conf, MRO, Arthur 24-35H, Bailey,
  • 33871, conf, MRO, Rummel 24-35TFH, Bailey,
  • 33872, conf, MRO, Lawrence 24-35H, Bailey,

  • 34047, conf, MRO, Lucas 34-35TFH, Bailey,
  • 34046, conf, MRO, Two Bar 34-35H, Bailey,
  • 34045, rig on site, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey,
  • 34044, conf, MRO, Rafter X 44-35H, Bailey,
  • 35268, conf, MRO, McCrory 44-35TFH, Bailey,
  • 35267, conf, MRO, Catherine 44-35H, Bailey,

  • 34048, conf, MRO, State Kelling 14-36TFH, Bailey,
  • 34049, conf, MRO, State Kreiger 14-36H, Bailey,
  • 34050, conf, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey,

  • 32791, conf, BR, Patton 1A TFH, Bailey,

  • 17976, 110, BR, Patton 21-1HH, Bailey, t9/09; cum 267K 7/18;
  • 32715, conf, BR, Patton 1A TFH, Bailey,
  • 32716, conf, BR, Patton 3B MBH, Bailey,
  • 32717, conf, BR, Patton 3C TFH, Bailey,

  • 19775, 2,645, BR, Patton 31-1H, Bailey, t7/11; cum 300K 7/1;
  • 18588, 469, MRO, State Howard 34-36H, Bailey, t6/10; cum 153K 7/18; back on line after several months of being shut in;

  • 32792, conf, BR, Patton 5A TFH, Bailey,

For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018

I'm running through the 18XXX wells tonight, and I come across this one.

Wow, spud in 2010, and has production numbers like this.

Obviously a re-frack.

So, I look at the operator and the field. Absolutely predictable.

MRO re-fracking wells in the Bailey oil field.

Absolutely predictable.

Checking FracFocus. Yes, re-fracked 8/11/17 - 8/25/17.

I wonder, what kind of frack? A small to moderate one: 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water by weight; 10% sand by weight. So, MRO gets another nice well with a small-to-moderate re-frack.

And something else.

They "never" screw up.

I almost never see a well that is not successfully re-fracked.

These guys are good. Not just MRO but all the operators in the Bakken.

Two miles down; two miles horizontal; hit a seam forty feet thick; know within inches where the well bore is; and successfully complete a well 99.999% of the time, it seems.

What's the production look like from the re-frack? Absolutely incredible:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

How does that compare to the original frack back in 2010?


And, then this: there are literally tens of thousands of wells that were drilled between 2007 and 2012 that need to be re-fracked.

When folks talk about drilling the Bakken for the next 30 years, they are talking about new wells. The re-working, re-fracks, etc., will carry them another generation (or two).

By the way, MRO re-fracked the other well, a Repp well, #16753, in this same drilling unit; same success. Only two wells in this drilling unit but producing like it has four.

US Gasoline Demand -- I Certainly Cannot Explain It -- September 12, 2018

I've talked about this a lot. I certainly can't explain it -- link here:

"Big number" data suggests that air travel this past travel season (summer 2018) explains why US gasoline demand lagged that of summer 2017. Probably a stretch, but:
  • big number data supports the conjecture (see EIA data this post)
  • the 2018 economy was on fire compared to the economy in 2017, and even the 2017 economy was doing well
Trans Mountain Pipeline News Today

I particularly enjoy the first story --- was / is "the fight" worth it?

From the linked article:

The city of Burnaby says it has spent $1.12 million in legal costs to fight the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project since 2014.

City Manager Lambert Chu says he can’t break down individual cost for each court case Burnaby has fought and lost, and the associated fees.

“By disclosing the breakdown we are also sharing information on how are legal strategy was constructed.”
Millennials And Journaling

This is so interesting. Do you remember this note from this post?
Making lists .... "Others, like the list of eggs, are stock-keeping exercises: taking the measure of our gold. This kind of listmaking is coming back into vogue among millennials with the rise of 'journaling': a habit of listing the good things that happened during the day as a way of improving mental health."
I read that note to my wife, and then I asked myself: has anyone else noted this "habit" among millennials?

See this link over at Forbes.

Re-Entry Of An Old Duperow - Stonewall Well -- September 12, 2018

September 12, 2018, daily activity report -- recompleted well:

  • 14876, White Rock Oil & Gas, Federal 16-28; 
Sundry form:
  • stimulated formation: Stonewall, 3/4/17
  • recompleted and commingled production from the Mondak-Stonewall pool and Mondak-Duperow pool; allocation will be based on fingerprint analysis; currently, allocation suggests 47% Duperow, 53% Duperow; rod lift with "19 oil, 15 gas, and 48 water."
Screenshot of scout ticket:

NDIC File No: 14876     API No: 33-053-02527-00-00     CTB No: 114876
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/22/2018     Wellbore type: Vertical
Location: SESE 28-148-104     Footages: 1240 FSL 1060 FEL     Latitude: 47.607951     Longitude: -103.929577
Current Operator: WHITE ROCK OIL & GAS, LLC
Current Well Name: FEDERAL 16-28
Elevation(s): 2451 KB   2430 GR     Total Depth: 13130     Field: MONDAK
Spud Date(s):  10/14/1999
Casing String(s):  9.625" 2067'   5.5" 13110'  
Completion Data
   Pool: DUPEROW     Perfs: 11248-11254     Comp: 6/22/2018     Status: AL     Date: 7/3/2018     Spacing: E2
   Pool: RED RIVER     Perfs: 12906-12931G     Comp: 2/24/2000     Status: PNA     Date: 2/27/2017     Spacing: E2
   Pool: STONEWALL     Perfs: 12564-12574     Comp: 3/13/2017     Status: PNA     Date: 3/13/2017     Spacing: E2
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: RED RIVER     Cum Oil: 604982     Cum MCF Gas: 981163     Cum Water: 304550
   Pool: STONEWALL     Cum Oil: 3730     Cum MCF Gas: 2652     Cum Water: 2106
   Pool: DUPEROW     Cum Oil: 292     Cum MCF Gas: 144     Cum Water: 717
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 2/24/2000     Pool: RED RIVER     IP Oil: 655     IP MCF: 590     IP Water: 5
   IP Test Date: 3/15/2017     Pool: STONEWALL     IP Oil: 34     IP MCF: 31     IP Water: 5
   IP Test Date: 7/3/2018     Pool: DUPEROW     IP Oil: 132     IP MCF: 8     IP Water: 2
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER7-20180000000
RED RIVER6-20180000000

Record IP In The Bakken? September 12, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs65563769197

Two new permits:
  • Operators: Southwestern, CLR
  • Fields: Tracy Mountain (Bilings); East Fork (Williams)
  • Comments: we've talked about Southwestern recently; see this note;
Four permits renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy (3): two Amelia Grace permits and one Lowe permit, all in Williams County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 20469, 814, BR, State Veeder 3A UTFH, Blue Buttes, t6/18; cum 45K 7/18; 35K in first full month;
  • 33100, n/d, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 5-19H2, Elm Tree, t-- ; cum --
  • 34200, n/d, CLR, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Butte, t-- ; cum --
  • 33726, n/d, CLR, Norway 4-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t-- ; cum --
    32131, 926, CLR, Burr Federal 8 26H2, Sanish, t8/18; cum -- ; off-line after seven days of production;
  • 32971, 8,702, MRO,Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/9/18 - 7/25/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight12% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see "record IPs/FAQs below.
Recompleted well:
Record IPs

Over at FAQs, question #9:
9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin?
September 12, 2018: 32971, 8,702, MRO,Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/9/18 - 7/25/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight12% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H). It should be noted that #32971 and #33493 are very near each other; drilled by same operator;
August 9, 2018: a number of MRO wells in Bailey oil field with huge IPs.

August 2, 2018: MRO with an IP of 7,448 -- Reunion Bay; see this post.
August 1, 2018: still on confidential, but for first full month of production, 95,959 bbls of oil; #30541, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope; see this post;
June 29, 2018: Whiting, #33120 and #33121, with 70K+ and 80K+ in first unconstrined month;
May 3, 2018: Marathon, #33493, 8,160, MRO, Mark USA 11-1H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t4/18; cum -- 
May 2, 2018: Marathon -- a number of records, it appears
April 18, 2018:
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07958; 9.4 million gallons; 84%, t3/18; cum --
December 31, 2017:
  • 33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, huge well; if this is not a typo, could be a new record: 83,607 bbls in the first full month
December 22, 2017:
  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --
From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.
From a November 11, 2014, post (see also the November 25, 2014, post, same subject); The first well, in the Middle Bakken formation, was completed with 94 stages and was flowing 7,120 BOE/d on October 10, 2014, according to the operator. When the well was completed, it established a world record for number of stages in a single well.
Soon after, an offset well in the Upper Three Forks formation was completed with 104 stages. This well was flowing 7,824 BOE/d on October 11, 2014. This was a hybrid completion comprising 97 NCS GripShift cemented casing sleeves, with seven NCS BallShift cemented ball-drop sleeves in the lower section of the well. In both wells, all stages were successfully fractured.
More to follow: in 2Q14 earnings report, WLL: Tarpon Well Completed in 2nd Bench of Three Forks Flowing 6,071 boepd. Not a record in the Bakken -- see Statoil's #23992. But still, this is huge for the second bench.
Statoil reported an IP of 5,417 on September 26, 2013: #23992, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks oil field. Based on its IP for natural gas (9,663), this well had an IP of 7,083 boepd
Statoil reported an IP of 5,387 on July 19, 2013: #23387, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks oil field. This might be a new record (this is the IP for crude oil only).
The initial production of any well, self-reported by the producer, is becoming less meaningful over time. Having said that, it looks like the record IP for a Bakken well is now 5,200a Newfield well (July, 2011): 18691, 5,200, NFX, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, Westberg, Bakken.
Statoil reported on July 10, 2013: 23385, 5,070, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks, t6/13; cum -- ; 7 days to drill the lateral; I did not see completion data; 31 swell packers planned; 
Two earlier wells: a Whiting well which had an IP of 4,761 boepd: file #17612, 4,761 boepd IP, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Mountrail County, Sanish field.  This is still current as of February 20, 2010. Since then, BEXP claims to have set a record with the Sorenson 29-32 1-H, #18654, with a 24-hour flowback of 5,133 bopd. However, the NDIC reported an IP of 2,944. BEXP also reported the Jack Cvancara 19-18 #1H (this site is down) in the Ross project area with a 24-hour flowback of 5,035.
New record in the Bakken, November 3, 2011The Tarpon Federal 21-4H is a Whiting  Petroleum operated well and had a 24-hour initial production (IP) rate of 7,009 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), setting a new Williston Basin record for a Bakken well.
Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.

Nothing About The Bakken Yet -- September 12, 2018

From Christian Lorentzen's review of Ben Blum's Ranger Games: A Story of Soldiers, Family and an Inexplicable Crime, 2018, in the current issue of The London Review of Books, p. 22. It begins:
Most bank robberies in the US are accomplished with a simple demand note. That was the way my great-uncle Bobby went about it when he robbed a Boston bank in 1952.

He was wearing a mask but somebody saw the get-away car, and he was soon arrested because he'd parked it right outside his house.

He was 25 years old and had four children. He told the cops he'd robbed the bank 'to buy food for my family.'

Nobody left alive remembers how long he spent in prison, but it's said that he once stole an armoured car just to take it for a joyride.

He was wild when he was young.

By the time I knew him he was a genial elderly truck driver who liked to retell his mother's stories of growing up in a village in Albania, a country he'd never visited.

He was a black sheep, but in the eyes of our not very saintly family he'd long since been redeemed.
Our middle granddaughter is learning to write essays in her middle school "advanced" English class.

This week they are working on two- to three-page essays on biographical profiles of family members. I used Lorentzen's review to suggest two things, both issues with which she was struggling.

First, some classmates say they have a boring family, nothing to write about. Olivia has the opposite problem: too much to write about; where does one begin -- her maternal great-grandmother was an 18-year-old living in Japan when the US dropped two nuclear bombs on cities not far from where she lived; her maternal great-grandfather was sent back to Mexico by the Texas Rangers after illegally swimming across the Rio Grande; her paternal great-grandfather was Norwegian (that's a book in itself; we can start with bringing horses from England to Ellis Island); and her paternal great-grandmother was driving a tractor on the family's Iowa farm before she was eight years old. And that's just one generation.

Her first essay: about what it's like to become an "older sister" -- after Sophia came along.

The second issue we talked about at length: it doesn't matter what one writes about, as long as it's written well (I think Hemingway said that) and it is told in an interesting way. Most important: an opening paragraph that catches a reader's attention. Lorentzen's essay certainly did that for me -- bank robbery, Boston; stupidity; desperation; prison; Albania; redemption. How can one not finish the essay after reading that?

And, of course, that reminds me of the best country and western song ever written. If you don't want to listen to the entire song, but are curious, skip ahead to 3:30 at the video:

You Never Even Called Me By My Name, David Allen Coe

A Great Day For Oil Bulls -- September 12, 2018


Later, 10:13 a.m. CDT: the EIA weekly petroleum report has been released. Let's see if we can "guess" the critical number based on movement in the price of WTI? WTI, now: surges, up 2.5%; trading at $71; my hunch -- the EIA data corroborates the API data --

The data:
  • there it is -- US crude oil inventories well below 400 million bbls -- my threshold -- the threshold I set over a year ago -- if one wanted to see price of oil surge
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.3 million bbls
  • this is 3% below the 5-year average for this time of year
  • gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million bbls; up about 8% over five-year average
  • refineries working at 97.6% capacity; high, but not in record territory; won't make the headlines
  • gasoline production: 10.4 million bbs/day -- right in line
  • distillate fuel production: 5.5 million bbls/day -- absolutely right in line
  • total products supplied: up 5.1% from the same period last year
  • jet fuel; up an incredible 5.9% compared with same four-week period last year 
I think this metric was off everyone's radar for the past year. I certainly don't recall many mainstream business articles on global jet fuel demand. Peak oil demand in five years? Gonna be fun watching them build flying EVs that carry 500 passengers from Dubai to London. Just saying.

See also this story from Reuters: US crude oil stockpiles fall more than expected to below 400 million bbls. 

For newbies: I followed the "EIA weekly crude oil inventories" for one full year until a) I got bored; and, b) I got a feeling for it. This is my 30-second elevator speech: US crude oil inventories historically fluctuated around 350 million bbls. During the  Saudi Surge -- their trillion-dollar mistake -- US crude oil inventories surged to 450 million bbls or higher -- I forget the number -- I don't know if it got to 470 million bbls but it seems it might have. Whatever. US shale oil companies were struggling; many thought the Saudis would end the US shale revolution. They did not, but they might have come closer than folks give them credit. Had their foreign reserves not plummeted the Saudis might have hung in there and the story might have ended differently. Be that as it may, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, US shale operators were desperate to get the price of oil up, but that would only happen if the global inventories in storage were drawn down. Wow, it took a long time. I did not think they could do it. I suggested that the "350-million-bbl threshold" was now "400-million-bbls" to reflect the new world order/the new economy/the expanding economy/etc.

And, today, finally, after a year and a half, or more, well below 400 million bbls. And the price of WTI is back at $71. Brent, $10 higher at $80, and the OPEC basket right in the middle, at $75.

It helped that Libya continued to remain being Libya -- one step forward, three steps back; that Venezuela imploded; that Trump restored the original sanctions on Iran (you know, the ones Obama lifted after the entire world reluctantly agreed to his harsh sanctions in the first place); that Canadian oil remains landlocked and Trudeau can't close a deal or build a pipeline (in fact, he famously killed the predecessor to the Trans Mountain, the Enbridge Northern Gateway.

The gasoline demand graphic has been posted.

The "NG fill rate" will be released tomorrow. 

Original Post

Huge day today:
  • oil already moving
  • weekly petroleum report -- critical for clarity for EIA to corroborate API data released yesterday
  • iPhone rollout today
Pipelines: where we stand --
  • the Keystone XL is dead
  • the TransMountain will eventually be built, but Trudeau doesn't seem to be in any hurry
  • Line 3: it's hard to believe that it won't be completed in 2019, but I would not bet the farm on it, as they say 
10 - 10 - 10:

Hunch: by 2022, "we'll" be talking about the petro-dollar again.

US oil exports: the spread is $10. Link at The WSJ.
Back to the Bakken

No wells come off the confidential list today. Since no wells come off the confidential list today, I will fill the time with "a book page." See below. It's been a great two weeks for books.

WTI: it's going to be a huge day for "oil bulls."  WTI is up 1.5% in pre-market trading; up over a dollar/bbl; and, trading solidly above $70.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66563769197

RBN Energy: court ruling on TMX extends need for Canadian CBR. Well, duh. And thank you Ms Why-own-a LaDuke ... making my portfolio great again.
The late-August decision by Canada’s Federal Court of Appeal to overturn the Canadian government’s approval of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project will delay the project’s completion to at least 2021 or 2022. And — who knows? — the unanimous ruling may ultimately lead to TMX’s undoing, despite the Canadian government’s acquisition of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline and the expansion project and its commitment to get TMX built. As producers in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) know all too well, TMX’s 590 Mb/d of incremental pipeline capacity would help to resolve ever-worsening pipeline takeaway constraints out of the Alberta oil sands and other production areas in the WCSB. These constraints are having a major economic impact every day — as evidenced by price differentials wide enough to run a locomotive through. Speaking of trains, crude-by-rail exports out of Western Canada reached a record 205 Mb/d in June, an 86% increase from the same month last year, and with WCSB production rising as new oil sands capacity comes online and with only limited relief likely on the pipeline capacity front from the Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Project in late 2019, many producers will need to depend on rail shipments of crude well into the 2020s. Today, we discuss the recent court ruling and what it means for Western Canadian producers, price spreads and the future of crude-by-rail.
We didn’t expect to revisit the related issues of Western Canadian differentials and crude-by-rail so soon - we provided an update just a few weeks ago, in Revival. But the Federal Court of Appeal’s’ 3-0 ruling on August 30 was a major blow to the TMX project, which producers have been hoping would increase pipeline takeaway capacity out of the WCSB and allow them to significantly expand sales to markets in the Pacific Rim.
The Book Page

Two years ago (or thereabouts) I did not renew my subscription to The New Yorker. The pro-Hillary / anti-Trump finally got to me. I still read it -- or page through it -- every week at the library. The editor(s) still suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

A few months ago I received my last issue of The New York Review of Books. For the same reason.

My dilemma: The London Review of Books. Just when I think I'm ready to give up on it, an incredibly good issue is produced. I hadn't received a copy of TLROB in several weeks -- I thought the subscription had expired, but today there it was in my mailbox.

Wow, maybe sixteen essays and twelve of them seem to be "must-read" articles. This is like watching championship golf in which the leader has ten birdies and an eagle going into the final three holes.

Maggie Doherty's review of JD Vance's book begins:
JD Vance begins Hillbilly Elegy, his memoir of growing up poor in the American Midwest, with a confession:
"I'll be the first to admit that I've accomplished nothing great in my life, certainly nothing that would justify a complete stranger paying money to read about it ... I wrote this book because I've achieved something quite ordinary, which doesn't happen to most kids who grow up like me."
Vance was raised in a "hillbilly" family.

According to Vance, hillbillies have a lot to recommend them -- they're patriotic, loyal, family-oriented, 'the toughest goddamned people on this earth' -- but they're also pessimistic, isolated, suspicious of outsiders, and, these days, prone to drug abuse and despair.

A kid 'with a grim future,' Vance could have easily ended up dead of an opioid overdose; instead he graduated from Yale Law School, the 'coolest thing I've done."

He attributes his success to old-fashioned self-discipline, which he learned at the feet of his grandmother, Mamaw, and perfected in the marines.

Unlike those in his hometown who had kids young, or who were worn down by menial jobs, he fulfilled what he calls the American Dream. By the end of the book, he has a house, a happy marriage, two dogs, a job at a venture capital firm -- and distance from his humble origins.
I can hardly wait to read more.

In the essay, Maggie Doherty reviews seven books, including, Kids These Days: Human Capital and the Making of Millennials, Malcolm Harris, c 2018.