Friday, September 7, 2018

Week 36: September 2, 2018 -- September 8, 2018 -- Williston, Dickinson On List Of Top 15 "Small" American Towns With Most Millionaire Households

Williston's new airport: JM Marshuetz reinstated as the contractor for the new Williston airport. Link here.
Airport director Anthony Dudas would not elaborate on the particular steps and observations that would accompany this second round of work, however it does entail additional equipment and personnel contributed by the contractor and the surety to guarantee the taxiway is finished on time for the October 10th 2019, Grand Opening of the airport.
The city canceled the contract in August when JM Marschuetz had informed the city it would need additional funding to complete the taxiway by the deadline. Marschuetz counted that assertion, blaming the city for giving a two month late start for the project.
The project: a taxiway. The article does not say if more than the taxiway is at stake.
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • State revenue growing along with increased oil production
  • Donald Trump, Jr, will be the featured speaker at this year's annual meeting of the ND Petroleum Council, September 24 - 26, 2018, in Fargo
  • ND PSC approves Andeavor Logistics' 42-mile BakkenLink pipeline; in the heart of the Bakken; natural gas liquids (NGLs)
    • originally approved in 2012 to transport crude oil
    • will augment Endeavor's 44-mile NGLs pipeline McKenzie, Billings, and Stark counties
    • NGLs from Watford City area to an Andeavor gas processing plant near Belfield
    • North Dakota produces 450,000 bbls of NGLs per day
  • PSC asks administrative law judge to weigh in on Davis Refinery; it remains the PSC decision, but they want another set of eyes to look at the permit
  • Williston, Dickinson on list of 15 American small towns with most millionaires (link here)
    • small defined as 10,000 to 50,000 population (excludes Bismarck, Fargo, apparently
    • #12:Dickinson: #4 with 1,000 millionaire households; one-thousand millionaires in an overall population of 14,000 households
    • #10: Jackson, Wyoming/Jackson, Idaho: 1,026
    • #7: Williston: 1,301 millionaire households
National
US job growth surges; annual wage gain largest since 2009 
Chippewa reach agreement with Enbridge on Line 3

Operations
Well in Fort Berthold area produces 150,000 bbls of crude oil in two months
MRO re-frack; the life-cycle of a Bakken well;
Horizontal well straddles ND/Montana state line
Newfield plans to add 42 wells to three 1280-acre units
Newfield wants to place fourteen new wells on an existing 640-acre drilling unit
Kraken Operating hitting its stride

Pipelines:
USACOE tells protestors to suck eggs

Other formations
Southwestern Production Corp looking to drill Tracy-Mountain-Tyler

Miscellaneous
How busy is the Bakken? Count the SWD wells!

A Reader Asked A Question About DUCs -- Friday, September 7, 2018

A reader asked: If a well is on confidential (with the 6 month experation date listed) and does not appear on frac focus data base, does that mean is was never fracked? ie a DUC?

My not-ready for prime-time reply:
I'm not sure if I understand the question, but here are my observations and understanding (not necessarily factual).

1. "Every" Bakken well is eventually fracked. There are exceptions. That's why "every" is in quotes. Just as I say there is "never" a dry Bakken well.

2. In the "old" days, wells were drilled and then completed (fracked) almost immediately. You can assume any Bakken well drilled (with a test date) before the end of 2012 was fracked, but prior to 2012 (or some such date; I forget exactly when) FracFocus won't have the data. Operators did not have to provide data to FracFocus until after 2012 (or some such date; I don't know the exact date). But when I see a Bakken well drilled before the end of 2012 and there is no frack data, I assume it was fracked, just not captured by FracFocus.

3.But even for wells drilled before 2012, the NDIC will have a frack report in the file folder.

4. In the old days, the operators had one year to complete the well (to include the frack) after it was first spud. Around late 2014 (I forget exactly when), operators were given two years to complete (to include the frack) from the date the well was first spud (there are some legal arguments about "first date the well was spud" -- but that's another story.

5. Operators can now drill wells in about 10 - 30 days; many wells remain in "DRL" status while the rest of the wells on the same pad are being drilled. Technically, they are drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) but they are not given that classification if the operator plans to complete them once all the wells on the pad are drilled, and if the operator plans to frack them in quick succession. The wells are generally on CONF status at this time; maybe DRL status: and remain on CONF status until the six month conf status is up. Those wells are never (administratively) DUCs.

6. If an operator drills a well (or a number of wells on one pad) with the intention of drilling to depth (TD = total depth) but not planning on completing them until after six months or longer (up to two years) they are administratively DUCs -- drilled to total depth (including the horizontal leg) and then shut in -- for months, or maybe a year or so -- until the operator goes back in and fracks the wells. During this period the well is DUC (SI/NC -- shut in/not completed).

7. At the time the well is fracked, the operator sends that information to FracFocus (there must be a regulation that requires contemporaneous reporting / timely reporting, even if the well is administratively a DUC). This is where it gets tricky. I can find an SI/NC well (administratively) -- the paperwork has not caught up with the folks at the NDIC) but I can go over to FracFocus to see if it has been fracked. If a DUC (SI/NC) well is producing a significant amount of oil, I assume it has been fracked, and FracFocus will confirm it.

8. "Modern wells" -- wells drilled after 2012 (or whatever the date was) will have a FracFocus report, it seems to me, almost as soon as the well has been fracked. I'm not sure what the time lag is but it can't be much.

9. I did not proofread the above; there are probably typos. I don't know if I answered the question.

10. If you are looking at a specific permit / well, I can look it up and give you my opinion what is going on.

11. Having said all that, there are occasional -- very rarely -- Bakken wells that have never been fracked. But if the operator has no intention of fracking them and they are producing and they are off the confidential list, they are NOT considered DUCs. A DUC means that it has been "drilled, but not completed." An operator can complete a well without fracking it. There is much to do to "complete" a well, to stimulate a well, even if it's not fracked. Vertical wells, for example, are not (generally?) fracked, but they are stimulated.

Bakken 2.5: Pad Drilling; Huge DUCs Being Completed; Permits Being Renewed --- September 7, 2018

Active rigs:

$67.769/7/201809/07/201709/07/201609/07/201509/07/2014
Active Rigs66543675196

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Kraken Operating
  • Field: Winner (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken Operating has permits for a 6-well Dragseth pad in NWNW 16-158-100;
Twelve permits renewed:
  • Slawson (6): six Osprey Federal permits in Mountrail County
  • Zavanna (4): four Mastiff permits in Williams County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Arsenal Federal permits in McKenzie County
Three producing wells completed:
  • 32480, 2,653, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34E, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 71K 7/18;
  • 32502, 1,086, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-S, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 58K 7/18;
  • 32500, 2,717, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 87K 7/18;

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+26 -- September 7, 2018

A graphic is worth 10,000 words, link here:


For Newbies, Jane Nielson, And Art Berman -- September 7, 2018

See this post.

So, What Don't You Want? -- Making America Great Again -- September 7, 2018

A graphic is worth 10,000 words:


Insane irony: under a president whom the alt-left hates, America has never done so well in modern history -- since 1969. And yet, under a president the alt-left loved, America was slowly being destroyed. Speaks volumes.

Headlines around the web after this morning's jobs report:
  • great again: construction worker wages rise
  • black unemployment near record low
  • 120 utilities have lowered rates thanks to tax cuts
“The economy is on an adrenalin rush,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Given the amount of fiscal stimulus that the economy is benefiting from, it’s going to take a lot to get it off that high.”

By the way, a talking head on CNBC must be reading the blog: he said the same thing I posted a few weeks ago: this bull market has legs. See this post.

DAPL: Low Risk Of Harm -- USACOE; Jobs Numbers Blows Past Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged -- More Folks Entering The Workplace -- September 7, 2018

Jobs / making America great again: August employment data to be released at 8:30 a.m.this morning. Link here. Consensus/actual (pending):
  • nonfarm jobs added, month/month change: 195,000 / 201,000 --- wow
  • unemployment rate: 3.8% (tick down from 3.9% in July) / 3.9% -- unchanged
  • private jobs added, month/month change: 190,000 / 204,000 -- wow
  • manufacturing jobs added, month/month change: 21,000 / down 3,000
  • workweek: 34.5 hours / 34.5 weeks
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Wow, They're Reading The Blog Over At CNN

I posted the Tesla bond on September 7, 2018. Three days later, CNN posts almost the very same story, with practically the same graph. Link hereDid they give the milliondollarway blog credit. LOL. No.

Here's the original post:

Elon Musk toking on radio overnight. Probably not a good idea. Hunch: Elon Musk getting ready to hire Colin Kaepernick as COO. TSLA sinking in pre-market trading -- now solidly below $280. Now, later, I see that Tesla CAO resigns after just one month, stock drops 9 percent, now trading under $260. The beginning of the end? Could SEC stop trading today? Bonds implode. Holy mackerel:

Speaking of which: did anyone watch the opening NFL game last night? I happened to walk past a big screen televising the game (score 3 - 0) when I went out to DFW to pick up Olivia from socccer practice out at Drive Nation. And that was it. When I came home, I watched the "re-play" of the PGA FedEx BMW tournament. Tiger Woods is tied for the lead with Rory McIlroy after the first  round. Due to weather concerns, the second round started early. I believe the first threesome has already teed off this morning. Ander Schauffele joins the twosome at the top at 8 under after the first hole. From deadline:
With a 13.4/5 in the metered markets, the post-midnight ending game is down 8% from last year’s kickoff of September 7, 2017.
In one of the lowest season openers ratingswise and facing portions of a cable news covered rally by a very NFL critical President Donald Trump, last night’s game is not only down from last year, but 2016, 2015 and 2014 – all of which saw successive declines.
Comment: it appears the NFL is becoming a local fan club, less national, more local.


Peak oil? What peak oil? Texas production continues to soar.
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Back to the Bakken

DAPL: US Army Corps of Engineers -- completed their review; opinion unchanged. Risk of spill low.
The Corps, in a court filing, said the risks of an oil spill are low "and any impacts to hunting and fishing resource(s) will be of limited scope and duration." It also said the pipeline wouldn't result in "disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on minority populations."
Google hits, story found at these sources, in this order:
  • indianz.com
  • thedickinsonpress.com
  • usnews.com
  • desmoinesregister.com
And, then, after that, all old stories.
Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 34042, 1,167, Kraken Operating, Sidney Josephine 32-29 1H, Burg, 60 stages; 20.4 million lbs, t3/18; cum 82K 7/18;
  • 34041, 1,313, Kraken Operating, Jenna Mary 33-28 1TFH, Burg, 60 stages; 30.5 million lbs, t3/18; cum 103K 7/18;
  • 33925, SI/NC, MRO, Wendell USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Active rigs:

$67.919/7/201809/07/201709/07/201609/07/201509/07/2014
Active Rigs65543675196

RBN Energy: Pemex and Shell renew their Deer Park vows, with a commodity twist.
Twenty-five years ago, in 1993, the Mexican national oil company — PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos, or Pemex — purchased a 50% stake in Shell’s Deer Park, TX, refinery. The joint-venture partners entered into a 30-year processing agreement under which each would purchase half of the refinery’s crude feedstock and own half the output. Separately, Pemex agreed to supply as much as 200 Mb/d of Mexico’s heavy sour Maya crude to Deer Park and Shell agreed to supply Pemex with 35-40 Mb/d of gasoline to help meet Mexico’s refined products deficit. The partners recently agreed to an early extension of the deal by 10 years from 2023 to 2033, while reducing the supply of Maya crude after 2023 to 70 Mb/d, to be sold at a fixed price. Today, we begin a two-part series on the joint venture with a look at how Pemex has benefitted.