Friday, August 3, 2018

New Linked Site For The Data Base -- August 3, 2018

I can only assume I have linked this site before, but I can't find "shalexp" anywhere on the blog using google search. So perhaps I have not stumbled upon this site before.

But for those of you who have not seen this site, it's quite amazing.

The link takes you to an existing, older CLR well, the first Sefolosha well.

When you get to the site, go down to the lower right hand corner.

Note "our valuation estimates." That's a dynamic, interactive corner. At the very bottom there is this:
"... based on a .05 decimal interest."  Replace that ".05" with any number you want, and it will return the "new" valuation estimate.

Mineral owners can check their monthly pay stubs, I imagine, to find their "decimal interest."

Unfortunately one needs to have a subscription to gain full access but for mineral owners with a lot of wells and a lot of income, this might be something to consider. I don't know. But it just shows you how much "stuff" is out there.

Website.

There's a 7-day free trial and if one subscribes for a full year, one will be billed $83/month. I can think of many things I might say, but I will hold my thoughts for now.

Note: this is not an endorsement. I simply stumbled on this site, know nothing more it than what I've seen tonight and what I've posted above. I am posting it just in case anyone might be interested, but more importantly, just to show folks how much "stuff" is out there.

For folks contemplating selling their minerals, it seems this site might be quite helpful.

Transportation Bottlenecks Force Canada's Largest Crude Oil Producer To Curtail Heavy Oil Production -- August 3, 2018

Earlier today I posted the following:

Keystone XL: three links today --
South Dakota, over at kallanashenergy.
  • TransCanada digging up section of "old" Keystone to check pipeline's coating
  • ordered by US regulators
  • pipeline section being investigated near previous spill; near Amherst, South Dakota
Pipeline progress, over at NPR --
  • company provided update at quarterly earnings call
  • some suggest it appears the Keystone XL is no longer needed
And, then, finally, at Reuters via Rigzone:
  • upbeat story
After reading all three stories, I really didn't know whether the NPR was closer to the "truth" or not regarding the "need" for the Keystone XL. Considering the source (NPR) I did not put a lot of stock into their story, but it raised some questions.

Now this story over at oilprice: Canada's largest oil produced is curtailing activities in western Canada because of transportation bottlenecks. That pretty much confirms that NPR is full of crap.

Data points at the linked oilprice article:
  • because of transportation bottlenecks (i.e., not enough pipeline capacity) for its heavy oil -- which the Keystone XL would exclusively carry out of Canada -- Canada Natural Resources is curtailing heavy oil production; turning to lighter oil drilling
  • US Gulf Coast refineries were optimized for heavy oil -- the kind that would have been delivered from western Canada via the Keystone XL
  • the benchmark price of oil from Canada's oil sands -- Western Canadian Select (WCS) -- fell again
  • the WTI (Cushing) - WCS (Hardisty, Alberta) discount rose to $30.80 / bbl -- the largest differental since December, 2013
  • Canada Natural Resources production has dropped about 3% yoy
Two notes from the linked article:
“Due to current market conditions the Company has exercised its capital flexibility by shifting capital from primary heavy crude oil to light crude oil in 2018, resulting in an additional 7 net light crude oil wells targeted to be drilled in the second half of the year. Primary heavy crude oil drilling was reduced by 24 net primary heavy crude oil wells in Q2/18, with an additional 35 primary heavy crude oil well reduction targeted for the second half of the year,” Canada Natural Resources said yesterday.
And,
Canada is producing record amounts of heavy oil from the oil sands and its economic recovery is driven by the oil industry, but drillers are finding it increasingly difficult to get this oil to market because pipelines are running at capacity and new ones are finding opposition from various groups.
So many story lines in this article.

One story line: this reinforces how important the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project is.

Ticker symbol for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ).

The Bakken Is Looking Pretty Good -- August 3, 2018

I was checking shares of EOG a few moments ago. I was surprised by the pullback today; wondered what was going on. Earnings? Nope. 

We talked about this .... maybe six months ago? The Bakken is looking pretty good. Now it's EOG "pulling back" from the Permian.

From Investor's Business Daily:
EOG Resources and Noble Energy said Friday they will shift well completions from the Permian Basin to their other oil assets, as the lack of sufficient pipeline capacity from the prolific shale play weighs on results.
EOG said completions at its Delaware operations in the Permian will fall to 30% of total work in the second half of the year from 40% in the first half.
EOG's completions in Wyoming's Powder River Basin, North Dakota's Bakken, and Colorado's DJ basin will account for 20% of work vs. 10% in the first half of the year.
Noble Energy said it would reduce Permian completions during the second half of the year and instead focus on the DJ basin.
Marathon Oil said realized prices for crude in the Northern Delaware part of the Permian fell to $60.01 per barrel from $60.45 in Q1, but rose in the Eagle Ford in South Texas and Bakken formation in North Dakota. But EOG's management on Friday tried to downplay the pipeline issues in the Permian, saying it was still getting crude to Cushing, Okla., and pointing out that it has assets in 11 plays in six basins. In Q2, average realized crude oil and condensate prices rose to $67.91 a barrel in the U.S., from $64.24 a barrel in Q1.
The Bakken is looking pretty good. Oh, I already said that.

Oasis recently said that the Bakken remains its focus. What don't you want?

The next obvious question: how is Oasis doing? It held.

And if you remember, COP recently had problems justifying its continued activity in the Permian -- pretty much saying they were only there to "save" their leases

*************************************
Meanwhile, Whiting Buys More Williston Basin Acreage

Updates

August 18, 2018: see this post.

Original Post

Link here.


2Q18 earnings:
  • operating revenues: exceeded "street" estimates; came in at $526.4 million
  • cash flow exceeded capital spending by $107.2 million
bolt-on acquisition
  • 54,833 net acres in McKenzie County (ND) and Richland County (MT)
  • $130 million 
  • less than $2,500 / acre (compare with the Permian at upwards of $60,000 / acre)
operations
  • 1H18: completed 40 wells
  • 2H18: plan to complete 80 wells
  • production reached 103,480 boepd
  • capex spending was $203 million (2Q18)
  • EURs now exceeding 1 million bbls of oil
  • cost of wells has been reduced by $400,000 / well
  • 120 wells x $400,000 = $48 million savings / year
  • average drilling time: 8.9 days; record time of 6.7 days
  • guidance
  • total CAPEX (for 2018?) at $750 million
  • end of 2018: to grow by 9% to 128,400 boepd
Bolt-on appears to be mostly Tier 2 (by 2018 norms) but some Tier 1.

Eleven New Permits -- August 3, 2018 -- The CLR Sefolosha Federal Wells

Active rigs:

$68.498/3/201808/03/201708/03/201608/03/201508/03/2014
Active Rigs64583474194

Eleven new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (6): PetroShale (3); MRO (2)
  • Fields: Epping (Williams); Spotted Horn (McKenzie); Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Sefolosha Federal pad in SWSE 23-155-99; Petroshale has permits for a 3-well Bear Chase pad in NENW 30-150-94; and, MRO? Yup, permits for a two-well Catherine/McCrory pad in SESE 35-146-94; see the graphic below;
And that was it. No DUCs reported as completed.

**********************************
The CLR Sefolosha Federal Wells

The graphic:


The wells:
  • 22811, 457, CLR, Sefolosha 1-14H, Epping, 30 stages, amount of proppant not noted, FracFocus, API - 33-105-02599, frack, 6/29/12 - 6/29/12; 2.3 million lbs proppant; sand 35% by weight (small/large); ceramic, 32% by weight; t7/12; cum 222K 6/18; this well will show growth in production after the neighboring wells are completed/fracked;
  • 35261, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 11-23H, Epping, 
  • 35262, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 10-23H1, Epping, 
  • 35263, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 9-23H, Epping, 
  • 35264, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 8-23H1, Epping, 
  • 35265, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 7-23H, Epping,  
  • 35266, loc, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 6-23H1, Epping,

Amazon, 2017, 44% Of US Internet Sales -- But Only 4% Of Country's Total Retail Sales -- August 3, 2018

A reader suggests that President Trump will move to break up Amazon next year (the "monopoly" issue").

It will make for great theater. Like almost everything else with President Trump.

From WWD, March, 2017, about a year ago:
Citing data from Chain Store Age magazine, Telsey said in 1996, Wal-Mart’s annual sales totaled $101.1 billion, which was more than $60 billion ahead of the number-two company, Sears, Roebuck & Co., at $38.2 billion. Third on the list was Kmart, with $31.4 billion, followed by Dayton Hudson Corp. at $25.4 billion and Kroger with $25.2 billion.
Citing data from the National Retail Federation, Telsey said in 2015, Wal-Mart had U.S. sales of $353.1 billion. At second was Kroger with $103.9 billion and Costco Wholesale Corp. with $83.5 billion. Fourth was Home Depot Inc. with $79.3 billion. In fifth was Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., with $76.6 billion.
“Only four of the top 10 in 2015 were on the 1996 top 10 list,” Telsey analysts said in the report. The firm said the 19-year compounded annual growth rate of sales of those four companies was 6.8 percent for Wal-Mart, 7.7 percent for Kroger, 8 percent for Home Depot and 8.4 percent for Costco.
Founded in 1994, Amazon Inc. had U.S. sales of more than $60 billion in 2015, which would put it behind Walgreens Boots Alliance.
Google search: amazon percent of us retail:
Amazon was responsible for about 44 percent of all U.S. e-commerce sales last year, or about 4 percent of the country's total retail sales figure, according to data from One Click Retail. Jan 3, 2018.
 At businessinsider: Walmart proved in 2017 it was still the king of retail.
The retailer launched more online initiatives than can be quickly summarized. It partnered with Google on voice shopping, opened its thousandth grocery pickup location, took advantage of its huge footprint of stores for easy online returns, introduced free two-day shipping with every $35 order, and even launched a pilot program to deliver fresh groceries right into customers' refrigerators.
Recent acquisitions, like the 2016 purchase of Jet.com for $3.3 billion, started to pay off as it became more clear how they would fit into Walmart's strategy. These initiatives were good for 40 to 50% e-commerce growth by the end of the year — a staggering percentage for a retailer of Walmart's size, though it does not break out individual numbers for online sales.
Someone will help Walmart break out online sales if Amazon is taken to court by the federal government for being a "monopoly." In fact, if Walmart joins the government on the lawsuit, I would assume that would be "discoverable" material. And Walmart would have to admit it's losing the e-commerce battle to Amazon.

US Steel and US Oil and US Rail were monopolies back in the day. "US Steel" had no competition. "Standard/Rockefeller" had no competition, or certainly no viable competition.

Amazon retail? Target, Wal-Mart, and a gazillion other small internet retail operators.

By the way: book sales data here. I'm not exactly sure how one breaks up Amazon retail in books. Amazon Fiction? Amazon Non-Fiction? Amazon Biographies? Regardless, unlike steel, oil, railroad back in the day, Amazon does not have a monopoly on books -- accounts for less than 50% of all sales. And, unlike steel, oil, rail back in the day, are books even necessary any more?

Breaking up Amazon retail sales from Amazon services (the cloud) -- that would be easy -- but I don't think that's the issue here. Could be wrong.

Since this post has absolutely nothing to do with the Bakken, it will be posted for a few hours but then taken down over the weekend (if I remember) and then brought back up later.

Free Cash Flow -- Accounting 101 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 3, 2018

Wow, this is so cool.

I'm learning more about free cash flow .... once upon a time I had not even heard of "free cash flow."

Some months ago when covering Tesla, "free cash flow" was said to be "X." But later, we found out that "X" was "free cash flow from operations." Later, we learned that Tesla's free cash flow was even worse when CFI was taken into account.
  • CFO: cash flow from operations -- very negative for Tesla
  • CFI: cash from servicing debt -- very, very negative for Tesla and that will be true for quite some time going forward.
It appears the "initial"2Q18 number given by Tesla was CFO only. I don't know. But I've seen at least two numbers for 2Q18 Tesla's free cash flow -- and in none of the cases was it stated whether it's CFO, CFI, or CFT.

For example, from Bloomberg:
Tesla burned through about $740 million during the three months ended in June, a better showing than the roughly $900 million analysts were expecting.
"$740 million a better showing than roughly $900 million analysts were expecting." LOL. Seriously. Tesla spikes almost 20%. AAPL spikes 5%?

Apparently $740 million was so much less than $900 million, shares surged about $50 (50/290 = 17%).
 
But that $740 million -- CFO or CFT?

I also saw a negative free cash flow of about $429 million for Tesla 2Q18-- don't remember where that was, but I do know that CFO, CFI, or CFT was not specified.

So, now this, over at y charts:

My hunch is that this number is CFO + CFI = CFT.

Tesla Model 3 Breaks Out From The Pack -- August 3, 2018

Pardon the interruption: this has nothing to do with Trump's tariffs as far as I know but it's being reported that lithium prices are tanking as Chinese EV production slows. Even in China, EVs won't make it without government subsidies or mandates. Wow. Who wudda thought?
Changes to Chinese subsidies for hybrid and battery-powered vehicles – or new energy vehicles in local parlance – that came into effect mid-June are already having a dramatic impact.
According to data from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, some 64,000 battery-electric vehicles (BEV) rolled off production lines in June 2018, a drop of 16% compared to May. June sales fell by 23% to 63,000 units. Plug-in hybrid sales increased 5% to 22,000.

Chinese BEV production peaked at more than 150,000 units in December last year. Global EV sales topped 1.2m in 2017 with BEVs making up two-thirds of the total and China accounting for more than half the market.

The new subsidy regime has impacted several leading battery producers in China according to the latest lithium research report from industry tracker Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The country’s Optimum Nano last month announced that it would cease operations for at least the rest of the year while Yinlong New Energy has suspended production at many facilities due to slower sales.
Should be good news for Elon Musk. Batteries should be getting less expensive.

*****************************
July EV Sales

July EV sales are beginning to be posted.

****************************
The Book Page

A quick look at two biographies of Franz Kafka today:
  • Kafka: The Decisive Years, Reiner Stach, c. 2002, translation by Shelley Frisch, 2005
  • Kafka: The Years of Insight, Reiner Stach, c. Shelley Frisch
Neither book seems to have been read or checked out by anyone; they seem to be in pristine condition. If I had shelf space, I would add them to my personal library. Exquisite feeling books, especially the first one.

The introduction of the first book begins:
The life of Dr Franz Kafka, a Jewish insurance official and writer in Prague, lasted forty years and eleven months. He spent sixteen years and six and a half months in school and at university, and nearly fifteen years in professional life. Kafka retired at the age of thirty-nine. He died of laryngeal tuberculosis in a sanatorium outside Vienna two years later.
Apart from stays in the German Empire -- primarily weekend excursions -- Kafka spent about forty-five days aboard. He visited Berlin, Munich, Zurich, Paris, Milan, Venice, Verona, Vienna, and Budapest. He saw three seas, each one: the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Italian Adriatic. And he witnessed a World War.
He never married. He was engaged three times: twice to Felice Bauer, a career woman in Berlin, and once to Julie Wohryzek, a secretary in Prague.
He appears to have had romantic relationships with four other women as well as sexual encounters with prostitutes. He shared an apartment with a women for about six months of his life. He left no descendants.
And that's why I came to the library today, looking for biographies of Franz Kafka. I came across the name of one of his female acquaintances while reading about the German (Nazi) female concentration camp at Ravensbrueck, and then remembered a book I have in my library: Kafka's Last Love, The Mystery of Dora Diamant, Kathi Diamant, c. 2003.

It was also timely since our oldest granddaughter is now reading Kafka.

So, instead of reading the books like I normally would, let's cut to the chase. Is Milena Jesenska or Dora Dimant mentioned in either book?

First, Milena Jesenska. If not, I will be disappointed.

Yes, in the first book, Jesenska is mentioned on pages 53, 109-110, 134, 137 -138, and 423.

Page 53: Jesenska mentioned in passing; mentions that Kafka sent a letter to her describing one of his male friends.

Pages 109 - 110:
... although it was Freud who discovered that the choice of a sexual partner is invariably connected to the most concealed elements of our lives. For this reason a choice of partner often seems preposterous to everyone but the couple involved. The famous engagement photograph that displays Kafka standing behind his fiancee [Felice Bauer] and smiling with only half his face is a perfect illustration of this kind of couple. These two obviously do not fit together. But the lack of fit means that the common ground anchoring them is hidden from view. Hidden from us, definitely, and perhaps from themselves as well.

... He desired not a "partner" but a woman who would enfold him, as he later mustered up the courage to declare to Milena Jesenska much more openly.
Page 134:
... Fifteen years later, long after he separated from Felice, he had grown cynical ... but ultimately self-destructive five-year attempt to wring the intimacy of a flesh-and-blood relationship out of the medium of letters to Milena Jesenska in March 1922.
Pages 137 - 138:
...  five-year relationship, Kafka and Felice ... readers today know next to nothing about her. It is odd how few attempts have been made to fill in at least part of this gap.... compare this lack with the intense efforts beginning in the late 1980s to form a realistic portrait of Milena Jesenska.
Milena is considered the more interesting figure: she was articulate and, more important, spent her life distancing herself from all bourgeois norms. She is the only person in Kafka's biographical sphere who escaped his enormous shadow, and after several decades during which she was known only as Kafka's lover, she regained a life of her own in the cultural memory.
And then nothing more of Milena, until page 423, and there again, only in passing. The most interesting thing we learn late in the book is how close Kafka came to losing his mind. It took everything he had to hold himself together.

Let's see if there is more Jesenska in the second book.

Oh, yes, the book is filled with Jesenska. Way too much to summarize now.

And, yes, in the second book, a full chapter, chapter 26, devoted to Dora Diamont.

Perhaps next week, I will check out the books from the library. We'll see.

Atmospheric CO2 Suddenly And Mysteriously Drops -- August 3, 2018

FWIW.

Well, this is weird. In less than a month, a huge drop in atmospheric CO2 measured at same location by same scientists. I have never seen such a big move in less than a month.

Keeling curve, Mauna Loa, July 5, 2018, July 26 reading:

Keeling curve, Mauna Loa, July 5, 2018, July 5 reading:


Northstar Center (AKA North Star Center) -- Foreclosure -- Sale August 14, 2018

Someone took a bath? Northstar Center being foreclosed. From The Williston Herald.
Northstar Center was proposed as a large, mixed-use development on U.S. Highway 2, just across the road from another proposed large, mixed-use development called Williston Crossings.
Neither of the projects made it off the ground before oil took a dive in prices, spooking investors, and putting a number of projects in Williston on hold.
Stropiq, which had proposed Williston Crossing, shelved its project, citing the downturn in oil, as well as changes to the retail landscape nationwide. They have since shifted their attention to a subdivision called The Meadows.
It appears there are multiple spellings including "North Star" and "North Star." This is not be to be confused with North Star paddlefish / caviar operations. More from the linked article:
The development is to be sold at auction to the highest bidder beginning at 10 a.m. Aug. 14. The sale follows a foreclosure initiated by YAM Capital LLC.
YAM Capital said it is owed $9.031 million dollars from the development.
The original team:
The initial development team was listed in a Williston press release at the time as GM Dealer Patrick Murphy, Jason Vedadi of Titanium Builders, Larry Miller, master plan developer of Citation Communities, and Dwain Davis of Templeton Enterprises.
Vedadi clarified by phone Friday afternoon that he was merely a contractor for the project, and said his company did get paid for the work it did at the development.
The "North Star Center" was featured in the highly-acclaimed television series, I-98, which is now in syndication. That series lasted about two seasons.

Take My Breath Away, Berlin
***************************
Original Excitement

This was the original post, back on April 26, 2014:

This story squeaks in. Arrived last night, but I didn't have time to post it. Don sent it to me this morning. The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Williston's City Commission has approved plans for a 535-acre development that will bring 2,024 residential units to the housing-strapped city.
Colorado-based LAI Design's North Star Center residential and commercial project was approved Tuesday.
Okay, so last year the city approved  1,637 units last year (2013) for the entire year. This one development will add 2,024 residential units surpassing, by far, the entire number of units approved last year.

Memo to self: write The Atlantic Monthly -- the boom is not over.

Can you imagine the number of electricians it is going to take to get this done?

The Williston Herald has more on the story, some data points (some numbers rounded):
  • North Star Center; to break ground this summer
  • 535-acre development (more than half the site will be commercial; less than one-half residential, quality of life)
  • 2,024 residential units near 56th Street Northwest
  • 1,349 apartment units, 94 single-family lots and 176 twin homes
  • north boundary is the new bypass
  • project was submitted in the fall of 2013
  • revised due to the intended route of the truck bypass that originally bordered the northern boundary of the property, where North Star was intended to intersect with County Highway 6
  • the truck route will take about 21.1 acres away from the project site
  • 225 acres of commercial space will be developed into hospitality, entertainment, strip-center retail, medium-box retail and automobile dealerships
  • 62 of heavy commercial property includes warehousing, contractor shops and yards and truck and heavy equipment dealerships, but excludes oilfield activities.
  • 105 acres is designated for parks and open space
  • 50-acre park platted for the development of baseball diamonds and supporting facilities
  • 15 phases for development
  • Members of the commission board voted 4-0 in approval
  • Commissioner Tate Cymbaluk, real estate business, abstained from the decision

Pipelines Beating Estimates -- August 3, 2018

Apple: the big story? Not that Apple notched a $1 trillion market cap. Rather -- it's just the first of many companies that will reach that same threshold over the next few years. Recession? Jamie Dimon says not at least until 2020 [and then it will be all hindsight -- badda-bing]. Jamie Dimon doesn't see a recession in 2019.

Apple: the big story? Not that Apple notched a $1 trillion market cap. Rather -- the excitement probably re-energized Buffett -- it took him a long, long time to jettison IBM and buy AAPL instead. He has to be thrilled. With that AAPL excitement, my hunch is that Buffett is reconsidering his relationship with Kraft/Heinz:
The billionaire, who turns 88 this month, already stepped down from Kraft Heinz’s board, ostensibly to reduce his travel commitments, though it could also be a precursor to winding down the $20.8 billion position. 
So much of the faith in Kraft Heinz’s management is due to Buffett’s support, so without him investors may look at the company in a different light. Even if Buffett remains intrigued, it’s hard to imagine his eventual successor and investing lieutenants — who are responsible for decisions like buying Apple Inc. stock — would hang onto this one when Buffett is no longer in the picture. 
Newspapers: as long as we're talking about Warren Buffett, an update on the Lee deal (previously posted) from Bloomberg. It looks like Warren Buffett learned about the internet about 30 years too later. My hunch: a lot of his lieutenants and a lot of his investors are hoping Warren departs sooner than later. Departs from Berkshire Hathaway. It seems Warren hathaway with Berkshire and it's not going as well as it might. Having said that, BRK seems to be the "goldilocks" stock.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

APPL: shares rise another dollar. Euphoria begets euphoria. Yesterday at the close, market cap at 10.002 trillion. Today, 1.006 trillion. [Later: near the close, looks like AAPL may close "flat."]

Disclaimer: can't remember if I've posted yet today that this is not an investment site.

NOG, W Energy: previously reported, but here's the clip from WSJ

Huge, watch this space -- the space: the Permian: the largest unconventional shale producer in the Permian is Concho Resources. It got a lot bigger when it acquired RSP Permian not too long ago. Now, Concho says it is ready to begin drilling "several development projects" on that newly acquired acreage. Other data points:
  • Concho has 640,000 acres in the Permian (compare: CLR had about a million acres in the Bakken at one time)
  • Concho with 32 horizontal rigs -- wow -- that's a huge number -- 
    • 16 rigs in the Northern Delaware Basin
    • 6 rigs in the Southern Delaware Basin
    • 9 rigs in the Midland Basin
    • 1 rig in the New Mexico shelf
Keystone XL: three links today --
South Dakota, over at kallanashenergy.
  • TransCanada digging up section of "old" Keystone to check pipeline's coating
  • ordered by US regulators
  • pipeline section being investigated near previous spill; near Amherst, South Dakota
Pipeline progress, over at NPR --
  • company provided update at quarterly earnings call
  • some suggest it appears the Keystone XL is no longer needed
And, then, finally, at Reuters via Rigzone:
  • upbeat story
Line 3: Chippewas are working with Enbridge to get this done --
The Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa said they are willing to allow Enbridge Energy to route the new Line 3 oil pipeline through the reservation.

Saudi Arabia nearly sets all-time production record. Yawn. How many times have we heard this story
The kingdom’s oil production grew by 230,000 barrels a day in July, to 10.65 million barrels per day. This is just shy of an all-time peak reached in 2016, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data.
It's truly hard to reconcile that Bloomberg story with this graph. The data only goes forward to 2014, but it's hard for me to see much growth in Saudi production over the years.
I've talked about this on numerous occasions over at "The Big Stories."

All things being equal, Saudi needs to increase production in the summer: they use domestic oil for generating electricity for air conditioners. In addition, Vision 2030 calls for significantly increased domestic refining.

Saudi is in a tough spot:
  • they need to increase production to at least 12 million bopd to meet Vision 2030
  • but if the movers and shakers talk about 12 million bbls, the oil market will tank, even though not that much extra (if any extra) will end up in the global market
  • Saudi needs $70 oil -- that's what they say -- they probably need $80 oil, minimum 
  • the headline that Saudi is increasing production will drive the price of oil down, and yet, global exports might not even change -- by the way, did you all see that Saudi Arabia announced that it is cutting the price of its oil going to Asia

Jobs (link here):
  • new jobs added: less than forecast
  • previous revised upward from 241,000 to 248,000
  • unemployment ticks down to 3.9%
  • labor force participation: 62.9%
  • market yawns

Earnings: fast and furious --
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

FWIW: an update of every MRO 16XXX permit in Bailey oil field.

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 34057, drl, BR, Rink 8-1-5MBH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 33931, SI/NC, BR, Three Sons 1A TFH-ULW, BR, Charlson,
  • 33395, SI/NC, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HB, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 33388, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Paopao 7-35-26-158N-100W MBH, Dublin, no production data,
Active rigs:

$68.938/3/201808/03/201708/03/201608/03/201508/03/2014
Active Rigs64583474194

RBN Energy: a new drill down report on Permian gas takeaway constraints and their effects.
A big push is on to mitigate and ultimately fix the Permian’s natural gas takeaway constraints, which in recent months have widened the price spread between gas at Waha and at Henry Hub to levels not seen in years. Despite the efforts to quickly add incremental capacity to existing pipelines and build greenfield pipes, however, the momentum behind Permian crude production growth — and, with it, the production of more associated gas — make a months-long blowout in the Waha basis in 2019 a good bet.  Questions about the degree and duration of that basis pain and the amount of new pipeline capacity that will be needed (and how soon) can only be answered by taking a detailed look at what’s been happening and what’s being planned. Today, we discuss highlights from our new 24-page report on Permian gas takeaway constraints and their effects.