Thursday, July 19, 2018

Texas Heat Smashes 1925 Heat Record -- July 19, 2018

Updates

July 23, 2018: from SeekingAlpha --
  • Sempra Energy's  SoCalGas issued a natural gas curtailment watch today, telling customers to be prepared to reduce gas use if needed, with power generators expected to work harder than usual to keep air conditioners humming as a heat wave blankets Southern California
  • high temperatures in Los Angeles are forecast to top 90 degrees F every day this week, including 97 on Wednesday, while the normal high in the city at this time of year is 84
  • SoCalGas projects gas demand will rise from 3B cf/day toay to 3.B on Tuesday and 3.2B on Wednesday, while receipts of the fuel via pipelines into California are expected to total only ~2.6B cf/day each day, meaning the utility would need to tap storage fields to make up the difference, which could hurt SoCal’s ability to stockpile enough fuel to avoid curtailments for some power and industrial customers on the coldest days during the winter heating season
July 23, 2018: the record was set July 19, 2018, a couple of days ago. Based on the 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon reading, we are on track to beat the record set on July 19th. It will be close, very close and if a new record is not set, it will be because folks are trying to conserve energy. Even if the absolute temperature is not higher on any given day, the a/c demand doesn't change much (at all?) when the temperature is between 98 degrees and 108 degrees. The day of the week and activities taken by the public on a given day have a much, much great impact on a/c demand.

Again, the hourly load link is here.

Original Post  

From Bloomberg:



Wholesale prices for electricity secured a day in advance reached three-year highs, soaring above $1,500 a megawatt-hour for several hours in the region on Wednesday and Thursday, as people blasted their air conditioners to stay cool.
108 degrees in DFW area.


From ERCOT:



The Book Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 19, 2018

************************
The Dictionary Page

The word: schadenfreude.

The definition: at this link.

************************
The Book Page

My book this week is The Sisters: The Saga of the Mitford Family, Mary S. Lovell, c. 2001. It's another book I cannot recommend to the folks who probably follow the blog, but I find it quite enjoyable. As I mentioned earlier, if there's such a thing as a  "chick-flick" genre in literature, this book would fall in that category.

It's about a family of six sisters and one brother -- the Mitford girls -- or, more precisely, the Mitford Girls, born at the turn of the 20th century, and dying around the turn of the 21st century.

I'm sure this book was a sensation in England, or more precisely, Great Britain, when it was released back in 2001 or thereabouts.

The family, of "low peerage," as they say, probably come closest to -- for a 30-second elevator speech -- the Kardashians, but in this case, the Mitford Girls actually hobnobbed with the rich, the famous, and the very, very powerful.

One vignette.

I've never known anyone who knew Adolph Hitler first hand. I've also never read any biography of any man or woman who was not a Nazi who actually knew Adolph. But here we have one.

Think "what's her name," the intern, and Bill Clinton. Seriously.

The Mitford family had seven children, as noted: three older sisters, an older brother, and three younger sisters.

The siblings ran around with the Winston Churchill kids and his extended family. Like northern families torn apart during the US Civil War, the seven siblings were torn apart during WWII -- some supported Germany; others did not.

The oldest, Nancy, was born in 1904; she became a successful English novelist.

Pamela, Tom, and Diana came next, 1907, 1909, and 1910, respectively. They were raised by nannies that often reflected Mary Poppins.

The fifth child was conceived in Swastika, Ontario, where the father had gone to stake his claim in a gold mine. She was named Unity. She was named after Unity Moore, an actress her month admired. Her beloved grandfather said that Unity must "have a topically apposite second name so her mother added Valkyrie, after Wagner's Norse war-maidens. Unity Valkyrie Mitford, #5, conceived in Swastika, Ontario, born in England, in August (a Leo), 1914.

Jessica was born September 11, 1917 -- a 9/11 baby and number six. Jessica was called "Decca" from the very start.

And finally, Deborah, "Debo," was born in 1920. At the time the book was published, Diana and "Debo" were still living.

Pamela died in 1994 and "Decca" died in 1996. Tom died in 1945 and Unity died in 1948.

It had to have been a challenge to write a biography of seven children in one volume, trying to give them all "equal" time, or at least "equal time commensurate with the 'importance' of the story."

Unity was given the bulk of chapters 11 - 16. In a moment you will understand.

Unity, in 1937, would have been 23 years old. Like all her peers she had spent her coming-of-age years on the Continent. She knew Austria. She differed with Winston Churchill regarding Germany and Austria and wrote to tell him so. He responded with a "kindly worded but firm reply" that she probably interpreted as "suck eggs."

To make a long story short, Unity became part of Hitler's inner circle, in almost the same manner that "what's her name, the intern" almost became part of Clinton's inner circle. But in Unity's case she really did become part of Hitler's inner circle. She became a frequent guest "at gatherings of Hitler's inner circle, and sometimes she saw him alone in his quarters."

For five or six chapters we get to know the F├╝hrer like we have never known him before.

In 1939, her family learns that "she is in a surgical hospital in Munich, making a good recovery from an attempted suicide. Suddenly the newspapers were writing stories that 'The Girl Who Loved Hitler" had shot herself following a massive row with Hitler and had died in a Munich hospital. In other versions she had been been shot on the orders of Himmler, and was buried in an unmarked grave."

Her family did not know what was true.

In fact, she survived the suicide attempt.

"The family later learned that Hitler had arranged for Unity to be taken to Berne (Switzerland) in a specially fitted out ambulance carriage attached to a train. [Visions of a scene in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" sweep in front of me].

Long story short, from Berne, Unity miraculously made it through "passport control" to get back to England.  [Visions of undocumented refugees in "Casablanca" sweep in front of me].

Remember: this is a true story. Unity was conceived in Swastika, Ontario, in 1914, given a middle name Valkyrie -- Hitler, Wagner, and all that --  and twenty-six years later after a (likely) affair with an almost married man (Adolf), having nearly committed suicide, finds herself being brought back to England under (sort of) the auspices of that former would-be architect and painter.

Unity did not fully recover. She made limited progress for maybe eighteen months, but then was stuck at a mental age of eleven or twelve.

The papers continued to run stories on Unity on a weekly basis who by now had become obsessed with religion. The press accused her of being a religious fanatic tied to the Nazi movement. Think the "religious right" in 21st century America.

Fast forward. Unity was a good deal improved physically by 1948. She died of pneumococcal meningitis caused by an infection in the site of the old head wound that year.

As incredibly fascinating as Unity's story was, on so many levels, the stories of her mother, father, brother and five sisters were no less fascinating.

This is a book one might skim through quickly to get the broad outline of the story, then attempt to read it more closely focusing on one sibling, and putting it on the shelf to return to periodically for some really, really great story-telling.

Perhaps my time in England made this book much more enjoyable that it otherwise might have been; I don't know.

Postscript. Tom, who was the first of the seven siblings to die, was a Nazi sympathizer. He fought in the war [Europe and Africa] but did not want to fight in Germany where he would be killing "German civilians whom he liked. He preferred to kill Japanese whom he did not like. At the end of 1944 Tom left for Burma (now Myanmar). Having come right through the war in Europe and Africa unscathed, he appeared to be charmed, and was popular with his men as well as is brother officers."

In an ambush while commanding Indian troops, he was fatally wounded by machine-gun fire. He was injured on March 24, 1945, air-evacuated but died in hospital on March 30, 1945, of the seven siblings, the second casualty of the war. Unity had been the first casualty, but she did not die of her wounds until 1948.

WTI Seems To Have Found A Floor -- $68 -- Kraken Operating With Five New Permits -- July 19, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.067/19/201807/19/201707/19/201607/19/201507/19/2014
Active Rigs68593073195

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: Kraken Operating (5); Zavanna (4)
  • Fields: Oliver (Williams); Stockyard Creek (Williams); Avoca (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken Operating has permits for a 5-well Sutton/Cass Sutton pad in SWSW 34-158-98; Zavanna has permits for a 4-well George permit in NENW 19-154-99; 
Two producing wells completed (it appears these wells have been TA'd -- temporarily abandoned):
  • 30140, n/d, CLR, Dvirnak 5-7H, Jim Creek, 4 sections, t--; cum --
  • 30139, n/d, CLR, Dvirnak 4-7H2, Jim Creek, 4 sections, t-- ; cum --

Texas Heat And Wind: Lots Of Hot Air -- July 19, 2018

Updates

July 23, 2018, from SeekingAlpha --
  • Sempra Energy's  SoCalGas issued a natural gas curtailment watch today, telling customers to be prepared to reduce gas use if needed, with power generators expected to work harder than usual to keep air conditioners humming as a heat wave blankets Southern California
  • high temperatures in Los Angeles are forecast to top 90 degrees F every day this week, including 97 on Wednesday, while the normal high in the city at this time of year is 84
  • SoCalGas projects gas demand will rise from 3B cf/day toay to 3.B on Tuesday and 3.2B on Wednesday, while receipts of the fuel via pipelines into California are expected to total only ~2.6B cf/day each day, meaning the utility would need to tap storage fields to make up the difference, which could hurt SoCal’s ability to stockpile enough fuel to avoid curtailments for some power and industrial customers on the coldest days during the winter heating season
Later, 3:17 p.m. CDT: California next! From SeekingAlpha -
  • Sempra Energy's SoCalGas issues a natural gas curtailment watch for Southern California, with power generators expected to burn more fuel than usual to keep air conditioners humming ahead of an anticipated heat wave [can't they spin the wind turbines faster; turn on the solar panels all night?] 
  • although high temperatures in Los Angeles were expected to remain near normal levels of ~84 degrees F through Sunday, readings are forecast to jump into the low 90s during much of next week
  • SoCalGas supplies are expected to remain tight this summer and winter due to reduced availability from the Aliso Canyon storage facility following the massive 2015-16 leak and ongoing shutdowns of several pipelines  
Original Post

Posted earlier:
Texas heat: Texas sets back-to-back electricity demand records, and likely to keep setting new records -- summer is just beginning here in Texas. Electricity demand in Texas dwarfs that of California. Amazing.
  • DFW hit 106 late Wednesday afternoon -- but it was a dry heat
  • Love Field, downtown Dallas, hit 107
  • Spinks Airport, Ft Worth, hit 108
  • yesterday, a new record, between 4 and 5 p.m.: 72,192 MW
  • yesterday, one hour earlier: also set a record -- broken one hour later
  • both of those records topped the August, 2016, mark of 71,110 MW
  • California demand record was around 54,000 MW set some years ago
Now, let's look at wind production:


Energy demand today hit 61,195 MW at noon, Texas time, and will continue to rise through late afternoon. During this period, when demand will near/exceed 70,000 MW -- how much energy will all that wind capacity supply? About 3,000 MW.

Note: wind-produced electricity will fall even farther tomorrow.  And not by a trivial amount. Fossil fuel utility plants will need to be up and running well before increased demand becomes reality; incredibly inefficient -- even while wind is providing electricity, fossil-fuel plants need to be running in the background to ensure "viability" of the electric grid.

Link for graphic below:


At the nadir, 42,000 MW, wind provides a significant amount, upwards of 15,000 MW, but it's not dependable, and fossil fuel plants need to be running in the background to ensure the grid "holds."

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Proof That The Texas Grid Is Holding 

EPD To Build Massive Crude Oil Export Terminal -- Houston, TX -- Making America Great Again -- July 19, 2018

Wow, things are moving quickly. Just hours ago we posted the likelihood that Houston is going to become the largest crude oil trading hub in the universe.

Now this, sent by a reader: Houston looks to have a massive offshore terminal to export Permian oil. Remember, even without this terminal, the US is exporting 3 million bopd while producing 11 million bopd. Data points from the linked houstonchronicle story:
  • EPD
  • will take years to complete
  • cost: $1 billion to $2 billion (seems like quite a spread)
  • impetus, two things:
  • the Permian
  • the Panama Canal expansion (you know, the project that The NYT thought would fail)
  • currently, even with dredging, Texas ports are not deep enough for very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
  • EPD plans to build pipelines from its Houston network to an offshore terminal where the water is naturally deeper; distance: 80 miles
  • federal permitting process: will take at least a year in EPD's estimation
  • EPD estimates US production will grow to 13 million bopd (from current 11 million bopd) by 2022
Also, this:
Enterprise’s announcement came the same day the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. commodities firm said it will base a new U.S. oil pricing benchmark on Permian oil that’s piped to Houston. The decision was made precisely because the Texas coast has become the key region for crude exports. The exchange, called ICE, said Houston makes for more accurate futures pricing than the traditional West Texas Intermediate benchmark that’s delivered to the Cushing, OK, storage hub.

Time To Learn A Bit More About The Burn In Burnaby -- July 19, 2018 -- Vancouver Sends Its Biggest Oil Shipment To Canada Since 2015 -- Huge Story

Update

July 20, 2018: Camp Cloud, the protest camp, was given an eviction notice by the city of Burnaby yesterday. The folks have 72 hours to clear out.

Original Post 

From oilprice.com:
A tanker loaded with around 514,000 barrels of oil has set sail from Vancouver en route to China in what is the largest shipment of oil from the Canadian port to the world’s top oil importer since 2015, according to Thomson Reuters trade flow data.
The Serene Sea Aframax tanker was loaded at Kinder Morgan’s Westridge Marine Terminal in Vancouver and set sail on July 4 toward the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, where it is expected to arrive on July 26. This latest shipment would bring Canada’s oil exports to China to 16,600 bpd for the month of July, Thomson Reuters data show.
Canadian oil shipments to China and to Asia are a rare sight, also because oil-rich but landlocked Alberta doesn’t have enough pipeline capacity to the West Coast. Most of the crude oil shipped out of Vancouver is being delivered to the U.S. West Coast.
But in recent months, oil shipments out of Vancouver to Asia have picked up, and tankers have departed to China, South Korea, and Thailand, according to Thomson Reuters data.
In April, the Solomon Sea oil tanker and the Diva oil tanker departed from Vancouver for ports in Thailand and South Korea, and eastern China, respectively. Thomson Reuters flows show that the two tankers carried a combined 742,000 barrels of crude oil to Asian customers.
From TransCanada / Trans Mountain:






From google maps:


49 Years Later, The US Sets A Crude Oil Production Milestone -- 11 Million BOPD -- July 19, 2018

JFK: "I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth." -- source, May 25, 1961.

Neil Armstrong becomes the first man to step on the moon -- July 20, 1969.

Almost to the day, 49 years later, the US set another milestone: for the first time ever, the US produced 11 million bopd.


In July, 1969, when Armstrong was bouncing on the moon, the US was producing 9.295 million bopd -- source.

Between 1969 and 2018, the low point seems to have been 3.971 million bbls in September, 2008.

In ten years the US has gone from less than 4 million bopd to more than 11 million bopd, and is exporting 3 million bopd (because it's the wrong kind of oil).

And that milestone, despite a takeaway capacity issue in the biggest play in the US right now, the Permian.

US supply of crude oil: 23.4 days. For newbies, it's been as high as 34 days (March, 2017). For oil bulls, one would like to see the "historical sweet spot" of about 19 - 21 days. We've talked about this on numerous occasions. Trump is considering releasing oil from the SPR: at best that will extend the supply of crude oil to 25.3 days, maybe 25.4 days, all things being equal.

Global supply (search: oil global days supply) of crude oil, from the EIA: 60 days.


Saudi Arabia has yet to recover from their "trillion-dollar mistake." Why? Because: investors in oil don't care about crude's price drop -- the writer got it exactly right --
Crude prices are down yet European oil companies are weathering the slump, signaling a change in fortunes for last year’s laggards.
While benchmark Brent crude has fallen more than 9 percent over the past week, the Stoxx Europe 600 Oil & Gas index has retreated just 3.9 percent. The reason? Oil companies’ discipline during the 2014-2016 crash [or as I call it, the "Saudi Arabian trillion-dollar mistake] proved to investors they can now easily withstand such crude-price corrections.
“Oil companies have done a good job adjusting their budgets to the lower oil-price environment and their shareholders are now benefiting from that,” said Ahmed Ben Salem, an analyst at Oddo Bhf. “The resilience is mainly linked to the fact that oil companies have an oil cash breakeven as low as $50 per barrel and their budget and share-buyback plans are based on $60.” 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Average price of Bakken last month according to the NDIC: slightly more than $61/bbl. Break-even price for oil in some of the better Bakken is less than $25/bbl (previously posted).

Houston Will Overtake Cushing As The Universe's Key Crude Oil Hub -- For The Next Century -- July 19, 2018

Texas, the new center of the universe: Houston will overtake Cushing as the world's key hub. Link here Rank them in order of "importance":

  • ICE
  • WTI
  • Brent
  • OPEC basket
  • LLS
From oilprice.com:
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) announced plans to launch an oil futures with physical delivery in Houston, and the contract could launch as soon as this quarter, subject to regulatory review. “The Houston delivery point has become the pricing center for U.S. crude oil production and exports, and the new flat price futures contract is designed to serve hedging and trading opportunities in this growing market,” ICE said in a statement.
Houston is now the “central delivery point for U.S. crude,” with proximity to upstream production in Texas, abundant refining and storage capacity along the Gulf Coast, and coastal facilities that have allowed a crude oil export boom over the past two years. The ICE Permian WTI futures contract will provide price discovery, settlement and delivery at Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P.’s terminal in East Houston, ICE said.
“The recent price divergence between Cushing-based WTI and Brent is a reminder that although Cushing is a marker for local crude fundamentals in the midcontinent, it diverges for pricing waterborne U.S. crude,” Jeff Barbuto, Vice President of Oil Markets at ICE, said in a statement.
Much more at the link. 

Fast And Furious -- July 19, 2018 -- With Absolutely No Fanfare, US Crude Oil Production Hits 11 Million BPD For First Time Ever

Jobless claims: link here --
  • consensus: 220K
  • actual: 207K
  • change: -8K  
Texas, the new center of the universe: Houston will overtake Cushing as the world's key hub. Link here Rank them in order of "importance":
  • ICE
  • WTI
  • Brent
  • OPEC basket
  • LLS
Texas heat: Texas sets back-to-back electricity demand records, and likely to keep setting new records -- summer is just beginning here in Texas. Electricity demand in Texas dwarfs that of California. Amazing.
  • DFW hit 106 late Wednesday afternoon -- but it was a dry heat
  • Love Field, downtown Dallas, hit 107
  • Spinks Airport, Ft Worth, hit 108
  • yesterday, a new record, between 4 and 5 p.m.: 72,192 MW
  • yesterday, one hour earlier: also set a record -- broken one hour later
  • both of those records topped the August, 2016, mark of 71,110 MW
  • California demand record was around 54,000 MW set some years ago
Most important political story for me, today, so far: "Trump will win this round with the Deep State." -- amgreatness.com. 

Stories I might get back to later:
Rigzone articles that need to be read:
Fake story of the year: the average American is sitting on $32,000 in cash -- Tanza Loudenback, Business Insider.  Does anyone really believe this? The "average" American is holding more than $32,000 in cash. I'm pretty average, I suppose, and even I don't have nearly that much in cash.
The average American is holding more than $32,000 in cash, a new study from NerdWallet found. It calculated that because the money is sitting in a traditional savings account earning less than 1% in interest, the saver is missing out on an estimated $140,000 in investment returns over 30 years — and that's assuming a conservative 6% return rate on stock market investments.
Comment: An internal link takes you to a site where you are able to one-click to open an account at Ally (the old GM Financial); E*Trade; or, Merrill Lynch.
Comment: NerdWallet has lost all credibility from my perspective.
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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 33992, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-LE-151-95-1807H-9, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 33680, 827, Liberty Resources, Rice 158-94-25-36-1MBH, East Tioga, t1/18; cum 63K 5/18;
  • 33041, 606, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, t1/18; cum 117K 5/18;
  • 33096, 1,905, CLR, Monroe 12-2H1, Banks, t3/18; cum 30K 5/18, constrained production;
Active rigs:

$68.537/19/201807/19/201707/19/201607/19/201507/19/2014
Active Rigs68593073195

RBN Energy: part 6, more Texas fractionation capacity beyond the Mont Belvieu Hub.
The NGL storage and fractionation hub at Mont Belvieu, TX, grabs all the attention, but more than 1 MMb/d of fractionation capacity — nearly one-third of Texas’s total — is located elsewhere in the Lone Star State. And with NGL production and demand for fractionation services soaring in the Permian, SCOOP/STACK and other nearby plays, the market will need all the fractionation capacity it can find. We’ve heard that there’s little, if any, gap between what the existing fractionators in Mont Belvieu can handle and what they’re being asked to process. That’s music to the ears of fractionation-plant owners elsewhere in Texas — assuming they aren’t already at capacity themselves, they might be able to pick up some overflow business from Mont Belvieu. Today, we continue our review of fractionators and other key NGL-related infrastructure along the Gulf Coast.
This is the sixth episode in our series. In the first episode, we discussed the fact that potential U.S. NGL production — including ethane that is rejected into natural gas — is now approaching 5 MMb/d, and noted that a number of new, ethane-consuming steam crackers are coming online along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, conveniently close to the NGL storage and fractionation hub in Mont Belvieu. We also talked about the strong export market for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) — propane and normal butane — which has averaged more than 1 MMb/d in the first half of 2018 (almost all of it being shipped out of Gulf Coast ports), and for ethane exports too.
In part 2, we began a company-by-company review of the five big fractionation players in Mont Belvieu with a look at Enterprise Products Partners, which has more fractionators (nine) and more fractionation capacity (755 Mb/d) than anyone else there. We also discussed the Enterprise-owned NGL pipelines that transport y-grade to Mont Belvieu, its NGL and purity-product storage, and its Houston Ship Channel export terminals for LPG and ethane.
Then, in part 3, we looked at the fractionation assets of Cedar Bayou Fractionators (CBF; a joint venture 88%-owned by Targa Resources) and Lone Star NGL, a subsidiary of Energy Transfer Partners. We noted that Targa’s Galena Park Marine Terminal on the Houston Ship Channel has the capacity to send out up to 230 Mb/d of propane and/or normal butane, and that propane and normal butane coming out of Lone Star NGL’s Mont Belvieu fractionation plants can be piped on Energy Transfer’s Mariner South pipeline to the company’s 200-Mb/d LPG export terminal in Nederland, TX.
In part 4, we discussed the fractionation plants owned by ONEOK and Gulf Coast Fractionators at Mont Belvieu, and in part 5, we started a brief review of fractionation capacity and other key NGL-related assets located elsewhere in Texas — that is, not in Mont Belvieu — with a look at the fractionators owned by Enterprise, Chevron Phillips Chemical and Phillips 66.
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The Video

From above: scientists track new source of neutrinos -- great article, must read. The video --

Lonesome Friends of Science, John Prine