Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Surprise Gasoline, Crude Oil Build At Height Of US Driving Season -- API -- July 17, 2018

Link here.
  • crude oil:
    • expectations: a draw of 3.622 million bbls
    • actual: a build of 629,000 bbls
  • gasoline:
    • expectations: a draw of 44,000 bbls
    • actual: a build of 425,000 bbls
EIA data will be out tomorrow about 10:30 a.m. 

XTO's Bullberry Federal Pad In Lost Bridge

Updates

December 1, 2019: graphics and production data updated:



Original Post 

Permits issued July 17, 2018. I believe the wells will run from the north to the south, a stand-up 1280 with an overlapping 2560-acre well or two or three -- just a hunch. The wells are already on the confidential list.

The graphic:


The wells:

The 8-well Bullberry Federal pad:
  • 35150, SI/NC,  , XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2H, Lost Bridge, noted 10/19;
  • 35151, drl, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2D, Lost Bridge, noted 10/19;
  • 35152, PNC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2GXH2,
  • 35153, PNC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2CXD,
  • 35154, SI/NC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2G, Lost Bridge, noted 10/19;
  • 35155, SI/NC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2C, Lost Bridge, noted 10/19;
  • 35156, PNC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2AXB,
  • 35157, PNC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2E2,
  • 35789, SI/NC, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2DR, Lost Bridge, noted 10/19;
The two "diagonal" short laterals:
  • 17045, 786, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-10H, t8/08; cum 230K 10/19; neighboring fracs may have impact this well positively; was off line 8/19 - 10/19;
  • 17086, A/AB/IA/560, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-5H, t11/08; cum 342K 10/19; neighboring fracs may have impact this well positively; was taken off-line 4/18 and is still off-line as of 8/18; huge jump in production 5/17 and 7/16 and no FracFocus indication that it was re-fracked; for more on this well, see this post, from June 7, 2017; a nice well as of 10/19, 2,000 bbls/month;
Nearest well to the west:
  • 32581, 1,836, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-13H, Lost Bridge, t6/16; cum 347K 10/19;
Nearest well to the east:
  • 21837, 1,398, MRO, Deep Creek USA 14-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t3/13; cum 311K 10/19; Steady Eddy; no jump in production;
Other wells on that pad:
  • 21839, conf, MRO, Kottke USA 11-13H, Lost Bridge,
  • 21838, conf, MRO, Levi USA 11-13TFH, Lost Bridge,
  • 32434, conf, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge,
  • 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 332K 10/19; Steady Eddy; no jump in production;

XTO With Permits For An 8-Well Bullberry Federal Pad In Lost Bridge -- July 17, 2018

Active rigs:

$67.787/17/201807/17/201707/17/201607/17/201507/17/2014
Active Rigs68592973196

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (8); Hess
  • Fields: Lost Bridge (Dunn); Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for 8-well Bullberry Federal pad in SESW 2-148-96; see graphic at this post;
One producing well completed:
  • 33672, 2,743, Whiting, Bibler 41-5-1HU, Stockyard Creek, t5/18; bcum 21K after 15 days with extrapolates to 43K over a 30-day month; neighboring wells: 33676; 33673; 23113; 23112; 18758;
The wells neighboring #33672:
  • 33676, SI/NC, Whiting, Bibler Federal 41-5-6H, [I have been told that Whiting does not let wells go to DUC status; this may suggest a change with regard to Whiting; on the other hand it is producing; perhaps Whiting does not let a DUC go very long before completing it?]
  • 33673, 2,472, Whiting, Bibler Federal 41-5-6TFHU, Stockyard Creek, t5/18; cum 13K after ten days, extrapolates to almost 40K over 30 days;
  • 23113, 1,896, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-8-15H, Stockyard Creek, t5/13; cum 308K 5/18; appears to have a jump in production after being off-line about two months;
  • 23112, 1,991, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-8-16H3, Stockyard Creek, t5/13; cum 242K 5/18; appears to have a jump in production after being off-line about two months;
  • 18758, 714, Whiting, 20711 Paulson 49 1-H, Stockyard Creek, t4/11; cum 321K 5/18; a nice well with a jump in production back in 1/16;
The P Bibler wells are tracked here.

The Energy, Market, And Political Page, T+47 -- July 17, 2018

Lost in translation. I assume I'm among the many who are happy with the new Fed chairperson, now that the Fed has become more transparent. From CNBC today, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell clarified his views on the economy:

  • "Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate," Powell said.
So, the economy is either going to fall off a cliff, or to continue growing. Okay.

And knowing the risk of the economy falling off a cliff is about the same likelihood as the economy growing faster, the chairperson says the Fed will continue to raise rates, maybe even more than previously anticipated.

The former chairperson, .... quickly, does anyone remember his/her name? -- Janet Yellen, was so much less transparent.

Late Posting -- Taxable Sales -- 1Q18 -- North Dakota Counties, Cities

I never did "finish" this (see earlier post). Better late than never, I suppose.

We are now well into our third calendar quarter and in a month or two we will get taxable sales data for the second quarter.

In anticipation of that data, here are the numbers for select cities and counties for the first calendar quarter, 2018.

Disclaimer: typographical errors likely in a post like this. 

Counties:
  • Cass (Fargo): $599,825,458 vs $601,242,173 (1Q17) -- a slight decrease yoy
  • Williams (Williston): $337,743,009 vs $253,389,540 (1Q17) -- huge increase yoy (33.3% increase) 
  • Burleigh (Bismarck): $319,378, 159 vs $4343,939,438 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy 
  • Ward (Minot): $219,276,507 vs $224,737,815 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy
  • Grand Forks: $218,826,174 vs $257,679,898 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy
  • Stark (Dickinson: $214,735,582 vs $186,801,560 -- huge increase yoy
  • Then we drop all the way to McKenzie (Watford City): $57,211,683) vs $41,664, 520 -- huge increase yoy
Cities: 
  • Fargo: $508,433,116
  • Williston: $320,143,874
  • Bismarck: $317,554,889
  • Grand Forks: $213,733,324
  • Minot: $208,171,518
  • Dickinson: $201,809,973
  • Watford City: $50,523,814
  

That $68 WTI Price? Not To Worry ... Look At The Midland / WTI Spread -- As Much As $15 -- RBN Energy -- July 17, 2018; 100% Of Bakken Wells Go To DUC Status; JB Hunt's Profits Soar; Stock Collapses; Texas Electricity Demand Greatly Exceeds California Record

Texas heat! Texas power demand breaking records during heat wave. It's cooler today, the high may not quite hit 100 degrees. Friday? 105 degrees.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said demand reached 70,587 megawatts on Monday, topping the 69,647 MW record for the month set on July 3, 2018. One megawatt can power about 1,000 U.S. homes.
I believe the peak demand for California was only 50,270 MW set on July 24, 2006. 

About that soaring price of gasoline? It's falling fast. Down to $2.52 here in north Texas. Possibly slightly lower in some areas. Higher along the major highways.

Wow -- UH-Haul maxed out! On way into work today, I noted that the U-Haul Rental lot was completely full of trucks. Absolutely full. I've never this lot so full. Reminds me of the Bakken boom when the U-Haul Rental lot in Williston was overwhelmed by all the trucks and trailers pulling into Williston. There is a boom going on in west Texas (Midland/Odessa); north central Texas (north of DFW airport); along the I-35 corridor between/including Austin to San Antonio; and east Texas (Houston/Galveston).

Trucking, making America great again: from The WSJ --
J.B. Hunt profit, revenues soar on surging freight demand. Transportation operator leads off second-quarter earnings reports for sector saying it saw double-digit gains in trucking, rail pricing measures.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.  reported a 55% gain in second-quarter earnings to $151.7 million, easily beating expectations as higher freight rates and strong shipping demand boosted revenue and profit across the company’s trucking and logistics operations.
J.B. Hunt’s revenue rose 24% to $2.14 billion, topping consensus estimates of $2.05 billion from analysts. T
he second-quarter profit reached $1.37 per share compared with 88 cents per share, or $97.9 million, in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimated J.B. Hunt would earn $1.28 a share for the quarter.
J.B. Hunt’s stock was off 4.1%, or $4.93 per share, in trading Monday morning.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, trucking, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Coyote blog: if you haven't visited the Coyote blog in a long time, highly recommend visiting the site and simply scroll down through the past few pages of postings. A very, very good blog.

Tesla: if you don't have time to scroll through the Coyote blog, at least take a look at this post regarding Tesla. It was posted about a month ago. We discussed it on this blog a few days ago. At least we know where Tesla shipped the "missing" cars.

Libya: apparently not that big a deal. LOL. Brent falls 4% to 3-month low after supply concerns ease. LOL. Saudi said it could make up the difference; Russia said it could pump more; there's such a backlog of oil in this country, that the Midland / WTI spread is as much as $16 (see below).


******************************************
Back to the Bakken

BNSF maxed out with grain cars in the Bakken. Link here. Imagine the backlog if the Bakken did not have the DAPL. What the article failed to mention was all the additional track that was laid during the Bakken boom to accommodate CBR. BNSF says the backlog is normal for this time of year. It's mid-July; seems early. Maybe global warming is moving the growing season to the left in North Dakota.

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 33994, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 33960, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, EPEUSC David 9-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 24050, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, no production data,
Active rigs:

$67.677/17/201807/17/201707/17/201607/17/201507/17/2014
Active Rigs69592973196

RBN Energy: lotteries, shippers, and trends in Midland price differentials.
Since early this year, the Midland crude differential has continued to widen, trading one day last week at a discount of $15.75/bbl to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing, the widest spread since August 2014 before settling back to $11.25/bbl on Monday.
The wide price differential is a result of fast-growing production in the Permian and bottlenecked takeaway pipelines. But the trajectory of this increasing price spread has been anything but smooth. Lately, we have seen a blip in the price differentials right around the 19th or the 20th of each month.
In each of the last three months, for a short-lived 24 to 48 hours, the Midland-Cushing price differential has narrowed by $2/bbl or more as Permian shippers have gone on feeding frenzies. Today, we look at these brief upticks in pricing and the pipeline and trader mechanics behind them.