Monday, July 16, 2018

MRO Well In Bailey Oil Field -- Getting Ready For A Re-Frack? -- July 16, 2018

I have no idea if this well is being "prepped" for a re-frack, but when I see a mediocre MRO well in Bailey field coming off-line, the first thing that goes through my mind: a re-frack.

There is nothing on the NDIC GIS map suggesting any activity in the area to explain why this well is coming off line.

For now, something to put on the list of wells that need to be followed up in a few months.

The well:
  • 17318, 483, MRO, Clive Pelton 34-23H, Bailey, t8/08; cum 178K 5/18; taken off-line mid-4/18;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

End Of The Line -- July 16, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

From Ontario kills renewable energy projects to bring bills down.
The new Ontario government is canceling or winding down 758 renewable energy contracts that will see more than 200 projects killed off in southwestern Ontario as the newly sworn-in government follows through with its pledge to bring hydro bills down by 12 percent.
Ontario ratepayers will benefit from US$601 million (C$790 million) in savings due to the decision to cancel and wind down the renewable energy contracts.
Well, that fad -- renewable energy -- didn't last long.

Ed Wood

For the third time in about ten evenings, I'm watching Tim Burton's movie, Ed Wood, with an all-star cast, including Martin Landau and Johnny Depp. It's hard to believe, but the movie won two Academy Awards, including Landau for best supporting actor.

I can't recommend the movie. One truly has to be in the right frame of mind to watch this movie. But I love it.

Our Man In Havana

One of the funniest books I've read in ages is Our Man In Havana by Graham Greene. I'm purposely not reading the wiki entry regarding this book or reviews of this book until I've finished it. Every chapter is good but some are better than others. Some really good writing -- some great quotes, if one could remember them.
"He had an easy rapid insolence you had no time to resent before he had given fresh cause for annoyance." 
-- sort of reminds me of Acosta, that rude and disrespectful CNN White House correspondent. LOL.

The Road To Australia Just Hit A Road-Block Called Reality -- July 16, 2018

Before we get to the BIG STORY below, the one thing we can all agree on with regard to the Putin-Trump 2018 Summit: global warming was not on the agenda unless that's what they talked about in their private meeting. My hunch: they talked about their grandchildren.

This is really quite a story. A huge thank you to the reader who alerted me to this story.

For those on the "road to Australia" you don't need to be reminded of the high costs for electricity in Australia -- a month ago electricity surged to $14,000 / MWH -- it's been one of the colder winters ever for Australia. And you don't need to be reminded why the price of electricity has surged. For those not in the loop:
  • Australia, home of one of the world's greatest reserves of coal and cheap electricity, decided to...
  • save the world by giving up coal and cutting CO2 emissions from that country, and ....
  • replace coal with solar, but ...
  • huge disappointment, and even ...
  • Elon Musk's batteries couldn't save the day, so ...
  • Australians are shipping their coal to China (where they have really, really cheap electricity), and ...
  • the Australians are paying really, really high prices for electricity.
Now, a reader sends me an update ..
  • the national electric grid throws in the towel; it must have gotten ...
  • a lot of angry letters from citizens who are going broke paying to save the world, and ... 
  • want it stopped now
  • the national electric grid (AEMO) says they can't do it .... 
  • it will take decades to transition to solar energy, and ...
  • it will take billions of dollars for the transition ...
So, Australia is back to coal.

From WattsUpWithThat,
Coal-fired power will be needed for decades to come to keep power prices down and the lights on as the Australian energy market transitions to renewables, the Australian Energy Market Operator says.
In a report to be released today, the AEMO says extending the life of coal-fired power stations is the most viable way of keeping energy prices down as the transition takes place.
It also predicts replacing Australia’s existing coal-fired network would cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s.
AEMO’s analysis says that based on the projected cost, the cheapest option would be to “retain existing resources for as long as they can be economically relied on”.
“Over the next 20 years, approximately 30 per cent of the NEM’s (National Electricity Market’s) existing coal resources will be approaching the end of their technical lives, and will likely be retired, which highlights the importance of mitigating premature retirements as these resources currently provide essential low-cost energy and system support services required for the safe and secure operation of the power system,” it says.
In other words, AEMO says that the most viable alternative to save Australia, if not to save the world, is to extend the life of coal-fired power stations while transitioning to solar.

The transition:
  • will take decades
  • will cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s
  • and it still won't work
I think Mr AEMO needs to be fired.

Yes, Mr AEMO is nominated for the 2018 Geico Rock Award.

Texas Friendly

I'm sitting in McDonald's tonight blogging while oldest granddaughter is at water polo practice.

It's pretty much empty but the drive-through is busy.

My only two compatriots are/were two homeless men, both clearly schizophrenic.

The first one had appropriate clothes for the 100-degree weather. He did have a plastic bottle of water -- wow, what would we do without plastic? He must have been here for about an hour or so. I wanted to give him money to buy a meal but was concerned that he might take my advances the wrong way. Right, wrong, or indifferent, I left him alone to continue his conversation with his imaginary friend(s).

About forty-five minutes into his visit here, the McDonald's manager walked up to him and very quietly asked him if he could bring him some dinner. The homeless man said "thanks" but declined. He stayed another twenty minutes or so and then departed. The homeless person, not the manager.

Shortly thereafter, one of his imaginary or real friends showed up. Another homeless person and also schizophrenic. He was not appropriately dressed for 100-degree weather. He had on his winter parka and all the stuff one wears with winter parkas -- huge stocking cap, layered clothing, snow boots, etc. And a plastic water bottle. Wow what would we do without plastic?

[I looked outside; the weather appeared not to have changed; it still appeared to be summer.]

The second homeless man used the bathroom but was here only a few minutes. I saw him leave with a huge drink in his hand from McDonald's. I can guarantee you that was gratis from the McDonald's manager.

[Disclaimer: I am assuming the men were homeless; I did not confirm.]

It will never be reported, but I am convinced that McDonald's and plastic water bottles have probably saved more downtrodden souls than all the emergency rooms in this country. I could be wrong. We will never know.

By the way, as long as I've gone down this road this far another story. Many months ago, while at a What-a-Burger, I saw something similar. In fact I may have blogged about it. A homeless person came in and the manager gave the homeless person a full meal. Before leaving, I sought out the manager and gave him a $5-bill (I suppose it was $5; I honestly don't remember the amount) and told him to use the cash for a meal for the next homeless person.

Play it loud, the man in the back said, "everyone attack"; and it turned into a ballroom blitz --

I hope they never ban plastic bottles. I guess if you are an elite you can afford a $30-Yeti thermos. A lot of folks in southern Texas may be alive today because of the ubiquitous plastic water bottle.

Update On ExxonMobil's LNG Export Terminal In Papua New Guinea -- July 16, 2018

ExxonMobil: I don't know how credible this op-ed piece is over at but it certainly is interesting.
Until recently, tiny Papua New Guinea was the envy of the world's LNG producers ... the project came online without much delay; and pretty much on budget. 
The ExxonMobil-led $19 billion PNG project came online in mid-2014 and started shipping LNG to markets in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 72 percent of all global LNG demand.
By 2017, the project was producing some 8.3 million tonnes of LNG, an increase of 20 percent from the original design specification of 6.9 million tonnes per annum.
But following a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, it looks like this could be the beginning of the end.
Again, I don't know how accurate this all is, but it is interesting.

But look how big that project was: this single project accounted for 72 percent of all global LNG demand.

For twenty-four years Smokie's been living next door to Alice --

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+46 -- July 16, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I am posting the SeekingAlpha article on Enbridge due to the relationship between Enbridge and the Bakken.

Enbridge: from SeekingAlpha; Fitzsimmons is a regular and knowledgeable contributor to SeekingAlpha, a contributor I enjoy following -- 
  • Enbridge already announced C$7.5 billion in asset sales this year, more than twice managements original C$3 billion bull-year target
  • the market appears to have ignored the asset sales, but has responded very well to positive news on the Line 3 Replacement Project
  • further share price appreciation will likely be tied to progress on the earnings front -- and the Q2 report is due out on August 3, 2018
  • also, discussion of PSX (Phillips 66); DCP; Line 3
  • from the linked article (but there is so much more at the linked article)

Putin-Trump summit: I think this was a much more important "summit" than folks seem to think. My hunch: the mainstream media is completely missing the importance of this "summit." Trump also took advantage of being "in the area." He attended the NATO conference in Brussels, which put him within "same time zones" and just hours from Scotland -- he saw the Queen; the Prime Minister; and, his golf course -- and hours from Helsinki which gave him a chance to see Vladimir Putin. Great, great use of time. 

Putin-Trump summit: for folks paying attention, the anti-Trumpers, never-Trumpers, and the mainstream media were already reporting negative stories on Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court even before Trump had named a nominee. And we're being asked to believe the reporting coming out of the Trump-Putin summit? Those stories were written as soon as the "summit" was announced, months ago.

For Jane Nielson and Art Berman. From Reuters --
The world's biggest oil traders are counting hefty losses after a surprise doubling in the price discount of U.S. light crude to benchmark Brent in just a month, as surging U.S production upends the market.
For those that understand the alphabet soup, the spread is: WTCLc1-LCOc1.
Trading desks of oil major BP and merchants Vitol, Gunvor, and Trafigura have recorded losses in the tens of millions of dollars each as a result of the "whipsaw" move when the spread reached more than $11.50 a barrel in June.
Duck and hide: this is being reported in multiple British tabloids, but we will link the story.  There are actually two stories here. First, short term, Ireland needs to get its crude oil reserves out of the UK before Brexit; and second, long term, Ireland could become the first country in the world to quit fossil fuel investment altogether, after the Fossil Fuel Divestment bill was passed by the country's lower house last week.

We also learn in the article that EU countries must keep emergency stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products equal to at least 90 days of net imorts or 61 days of consumption, whichever is higher.

Woodworking Course

The granddaughters are kept busy with various "schools" throughout the summer -- computer coding, sailing, athletics, cooking, baking, etc.

Olivia was enrolled in a week-long, half-day only wood working course. No power tools were allowed due to liability issues so all sawing, sanding, and nailing was done "by hand."

Olivia made a "miniature" Adirondack chair for Sophia. Here she is putting on the finishing touches:

Active Rigs At 69 In North Dakota -- July 16, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs69582974192

Fourteen new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6); CLR (6): Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Charlson (McKenzie), East Fork (Williams), Pembroke (McKenzie(
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Harley Federal pad in SESE 15-153-96; CLR has permits for a 6-well Durant pad in SESW 12-155-99; Whiting has permits for a 2-well Stenehjem pad in SESE 7-149-98;
One permit renewed: Resource Energy Can-Am renewed a Curtis permit in Divide County.

No permits canceled.

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33240, n/d, is now on conf status, Oasis, Muri 5198 12--4 7B, will be tracked as a DUC since no data was released

Dakota Federal And Big Gulch -- XTO -- Haystack Butte

Some of these wells have been discussed before.

The wells, to the west --
  • 19073, 1,348, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t10/10; cum 303K 6/19; note production jump 5/17 in spreadsheet below at time neighboring wells fracked; this well not re-fracked according to FracFocus;
  • 30533, 1,308, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16C, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 153K 6/19;
  • 30534, 1,795, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16H, Haystack Butte, t5/17; cum 128K 6/19;
  • 30535, 2,010, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16d, Haystack Butte, 40 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t5/17; cum 172K 6/19;
  • 30760, 1,844, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16EXH, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 146K 6/19;
To the east --
  • 30797, 1,912, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16A, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 152K 6/19;
  • 30798, 1,398, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16E, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 107K 6/19;
  • 30799, 1,844, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16B, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 136K 6/19;
  • 19072, 152 (no typo), XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 232K 6/19; big jump in production in 9/16; see below; this well was fracked in 2011 and 2013, but not in 2016;

The graphics:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

WTI Breaks Below $70 At Height Of US Driving Season; Talk Of Opening US SPR -- July 16, 2018; Oasis Reports A Nice Well With Only 4 Million Lbs Sand/Ceramic -- Less Than Half Commonly Used In The Bakken

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Bear market? From Market Watch --

SPR talk: over at Twitter, from the Reuters oil analyst based in London --

Russia: the real reason WTI is coming down is this story -- Russia is considering bringing on even more production. The interesting thing is that Trump wants the price of oil to be brought down, and going to Russia now to talk to Putin gives them something to talk about.


Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today:

Monday, July 16, 2018:
  • 33995, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-7, Blue Buttes,
Sunday, July 15, 2018:
  • 33996, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-6, Blue Buttes,
  • 33961, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 4-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
Saturday, July 14, 2018:
  • 33048, 614, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, mesh, large sand, medium sand, medium ceramic, t1/18; cum 124K 5/18;
Friday, July 13, 2018:
  • None.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs67582974192

RBN Energy: Texas fractionation capacity beyond the Mont Belvieu Hub, part 5.
Mont Belvieu may be the epicenter of NGL storage, fractionation and distribution along the Gulf Coast, but the rest of Texas offers almost half as much fractionation capacity — about 1 MMb/d of it — and a good bit of storage and pipeline connectivity too. These are particularly important facts in the summer of 2018, when demand for fractionation services in Mont Belvieu is at or near an all-time high and increasing volumes of NGLs are headed toward the hub. So what else has the Lone Star State got on the fractionation and NGL storage front? And are these assets experiencing the same strong demand as their counterparts in Mont Belvieu? Today, we continue our review of fractionators and key NGL-related infrastructure.
With 2.1 MMb/d of existing fractionation capacity, more than 250 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage, a spaghetti bowl of incoming and outgoing pipelines, and ethane and LPG export terminals nearby, Mont Belvieu is to NGLs what the Beatles — the group behind this blog series’ title song — are to the era of rock and roll bands:  the undisputed king.  And like Sir Paul McCartney’s bank account (he’s rock’s only billionaire), Mont Belvieu keeps growing; another 465 Mb/d of fractionators are under development and scheduled to come online over the next couple of years. But NGL production has been rising fast, and so has the need for more fractionation capacity — the mixed NGLs that come out of gas processing plants aren’t of use to anyone until they are fractionated into purity products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The problem is, new fractionators in Mont Belvieu haven’t been coming online as quickly as the need for them. Until recently, producers had been reluctant to commit to building new fractionation capacity, so existing plants have been running flat out to keep pace.