Friday, July 13, 2018

Worth Re-Posting -- Look At Paragraph In Red -- July 13, 2018

From "top North Dakota news stories" this week, regarding ND state tax collections:
Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.

The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.

North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.
Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.

Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.
The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]

The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.
See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.

North Dakota's Oil Tax Collections In June: 72% Higher Than Predicted -- July 13, 2018

From "top North Dakota news stories" this week:
Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.

The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.

North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.
Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.

Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.
The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]

The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.
See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.

Moody's rating, Williston, ND -- April 18, 2018.
Moody's Investors Service affirms the Ba2 rating on the City of Williston, ND's general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) debt. The outlook remains negative. 
The Ba2 rating incorporates Williston's heavy reliance on the oil and gas production industry. Improving oil prices and the 2017 opening of the Dakota Access Pipeline have strengthened the local economy, driving growth in sales taxes and oil and gas production taxes, which are the city's primary revenues. However, Williston's leverage is high, reflecting sizeable capital projects the city has taken on to accommodate the past decade's oil production-driven population growth. The city has committed itself to additional infrastructure projects, including a major airport expansion, the ultimate scope of which has not yet been determined. These growing capital needs, as well as narrow sewer enterprise operations, are key credit pressures that overshadow recent improvements in the local economy. 
Full history here.

Bond ratings here -- wiki.
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Stanley High School 

From MYNDnow:
In Stanley, the High School is remodeling and adding on to accommodate more students.
Before the oil, Stanley had about 300 students enrolled in the district.
Now, there are about there's about 700 students in the district and around 300 of them are at the high school.

And The Number Is: 1,244,629 -- New, All-Time High

Link here for rest of the May, 2018, North Dakota production data.

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Map Apps

As long as I have Sophia reading the map for me, I don't need Google maps, Apple maps, or Siri.


"Ha, ha, ha. You missed your turn. Re-calculating. Re-calculating. Re-calculating."


"Siri - ously, I think we are lost."


"Turn left in 50 feet. Menchie's. Your destination is on the right."

Whiting With Three New Permits Northeast Of Williston -- July 13, 2018

Active rigs:

$70.797/13/201807/13/201707/13/201607/13/201507/13/2014
Active Rigs67593072190

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Epping (Williams)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 3-well Dam State pad in NENE 16-155-99
Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: none.

Fifteen permits renewed:
  • BR (6): two Remington permits; two He permits; one Hefer permit; and, a Remingont-Lovaas permit, all in McKenzie County
  • Hess (4): four LK-Quilliam permits in Dunn County
  • EOG (4): three Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County; one Burke permit in Mountrail County
  • CLR: a Juneau permit in Williams County

LOL: WTI Pares Back Some Gains After Reports That White House Might Release Oil From The SPR -- July 13, 2018

Not even worth blogging about. It is what it is.

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Hacked!
John Poesta's Brother!

I hope you can all get to this WSJ article: how Tony Podesta lost his mojo. LOL.
Tony Podesta was in line to be king of K Street.
His lobbying firm ended 2015 as the third largest in Washington, D.C., with nearly $30 million in revenue from more than 100 clients, spanning Alphabet Inc.’s Google to Wells Fargo & Co. With his longtime friend Hillary Clinton expected to win the White House, 2016 promised to be even better.
Mr. Podesta, a conspicuous presence in his red shoes and Italian suits, hosted lawmakers and power brokers at his flat in Venice during the Art Biennale. It was one of many homes around the globe, including the Washington mansion where he displayed a collection of museum-grade artwork. In early 2016, he was ready to buy a $7.4 million condo overlooking Madison Square Park in New York City.
Then he got hacked.
Then he fell, a calamitous collapse propelled by unexpected blows, delivered by fate and made worse by hubris. Financial problems, legal threats and the election of President Donald Trump took it all away—the clients, the firm and, finally, Mr. Podesta’s position as one of Washington’s most influential players.  
Too close to Hillary:
His troubles, some long hidden, surfaced in the summer of 2016. The Podesta Group lost its banker over news the firm did work for the U.S. subsidiary of a Russian bank under sanctions. Then came headlines that the firm’s work with Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman, and an associate may have violated government rules.
And in October, WikiLeaks published 20,000 pages of emails stolen from his brother John Podesta, chairman of Mrs. Clinton’s presidential campaign.
The string of embarrassing news accounts disturbed many of the Podesta Group’s corporate clients, companies that preferred to stay clear of such publicity. Mr. Podesta operated as if the whole mess would soon blow over.
He spent most of the fall traveling the world. He returned to the U.S. on Election Day but skipped Mrs. Clinton’s campaign party. Her victory would go a long way to fixing many of his problems. She lost that night, and Mr. Podesta, like many who had banked on her victory, did too.
Clients who had hired him for access to a new Clinton administration fell away. By the end of the year, the departures cost the firm more than $10 million in annual business, according to an internal Podesta Group accounting viewed by The Wall Street Journal. 
How far did he fall?


*****************************************
Got Away With Murder

The Brits claim Putin got away with murder. Who do the British elites hate? Trump. LOL.

And the British elite want Trump to do something about Putin. LOL.

Random Update Of An Incredible Re-Fracked MRO Well -- July 13, 2018 -- A Brand New Well For "Free"

A reader alerted me to this one. I had posted this one back in January, 2018, and then forgot about it.

For newbies, two things:
  • this shows us what the Bakken is capable of; and,
  • remember all those stories (including from EOG's former CEO) that "they" are running out of drilling locations in the Bakken; these re-fracks are just the beginning, the tip of the iceberg; there are tens of thousands of Bakken wells that need to be re-fracked -- and, oh, by the way, go after additional pay zones below the middle Bakken
For everyone: think of the costs associated with a well when it is drilled for the first time -- up-front leases; pad creation; infrastructure; drilling to depth; huge amount of water/sand for the initial frack ... now compare that with a re-frack: no new lease; no new pad creation; minimal additional infrastructure; no new drilling to depth; and, look at the small amount of sand in this re-frack -- only 5.5 million lbs -- about half what is usually used in the initial frack these days -- essentially a "free" well...

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Here's the well:
  • 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 203K 11/17; re-fracked 8/17; re-frack with 45 stages; 5.5 million lbs; now, look at the cumulative: cum 315K 5/18 -- went from 203K to 315K in less than six months -- and, oh, by the way, this is an OLD well -- so much for "Peak Oil" -- and the "Red Queen" ---

Sorry for the interruption. Here's the updated production for this well after the re-frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201831129531303910748902667531266
BAKKEN4-2018301664816633153901213060744097
BAKKEN3-2018312080720900218661273359154409
BAKKEN2-2018282259022465251761367672803814
BAKKEN1-20183126722267043313617924135201364
BAKKEN12-201727143711436918379833922724386
BAKKEN11-20173017493173452132795615057006
BAKKEN10-201722286832872755416075012881
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-2017589641058040
BAKKEN4-2017306616631485410292
BAKKEN3-201731691677149607135214

Some mineral owners are getting some nice mailbox money.

Random Update On Well Being Drilled Southwest Of Dickinson -- July 13, 2018

Updates

July 14, 2018: see first comment. A reader says it's a dry hole.

Original Post 

About a mile southwest of Dickinsont:
  • 34711, conf, Armstrong Operating, Harvest States 7-11, Eland,
Other wells in the graphic below:
  • 13819, 279, Scout Energy, Privratsky 12A-3, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t10/95, no produciton since 6/03; cum 229K;
  • 13773, 2,908, Scout Energy, Privratsky 12-2, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t5/95; cum 786K 5/18;
  • 13724, 1,752, Scout Energy, Ridl 11-1, Eland, a Lodgepole well, t3/95; cum 1.07 million bbls 5/18;

Item: The Older CLR Jersey Wells Have Been Off-Line -- July 13, 2018

I think there are about 21 wells on this pad, three rows of seven wells each. The older seven wells have been off-line recently -- about half the days in April, 2018, and about half the days in May, 2018 (most recent data available over at the NDIC). There is no change for the other fourteen wells -- on remain on the confidential list.

The CLR Jersey wells are tracked here.

Random Update Of CLR's Brangus And Charolais Wells In Elm Tree -- July 13, 2018

This page will not be updated. (Significant typos noted by an alert reader have been corrected; I hope all the typos have been fixed. I really appreciate readers alerting me to errors of substance.)

Wow, talk about some great wells. Production profiles for the CLR Brangus and Charolais wells in Elm Tree.
  • 32606, 2,305, Brangus North 1-2H2, Elm Tree, t9/16, cum 477K 5/18 -- 
Monthly production from the beginning:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201831141001421259912520123379505
BAKKEN4-2018301261012218576522948204251281
BAKKEN3-2018311291113348499328476262291032
BAKKEN2-2018281178911782457423954186334265
BAKKEN1-2018311510715158613027534235522700
BAKKEN12-2017311564715570677536376332271844
BAKKEN11-2017301608915935646534227311741803
BAKKEN10-2017311715717229733631572275683235
BAKKEN9-2017301749317449776932007284702776
BAKKEN8-201731190911892882353701535968253
BAKKEN7-201731208932106796743791437025150
BAKKEN6-20173019417195381049629067264061018
BAKKEN5-2017312264422700105833677434419631
BAKKEN4-201730243972433310183378753710349
BAKKEN3-2017312748327535106633923438146860
BAKKEN2-20172826466265111175238396366381537
BAKKEN1-2017313150131527126724384843048554
BAKKEN12-2016312653326022859835159305894367
BAKKEN11-20163035708362471526749219453993608
BAKKEN10-201631418984178017229570293998816799
BAKKEN9-20163046934467301678650321418508232
BAKKEN8-20162139210007187827730


The second well:
  • 32605, 1,995, Charolais North Federal 1-3H1, Elm Tree, t9/16, cum 488 5/18 --
Monthly production from the beginning:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201831149481512755943653435666619
BAKKEN4-201830155301554452282573324723771
BAKKEN3-201831163371622954351991819461220
BAKKEN2-201828124621249639011926918714354
BAKKEN1-201831172551740558492739426437712
BAKKEN12-2017311864318591673127060268055
BAKKEN11-201729178241784358562335423026102
BAKKEN10-2017312042620388733131162245945823
BAKKEN9-201730203202026466573573334051945
BAKKEN8-201731233522328981694015039224158
BAKKEN7-201731266942672794954733546091480
BAKKEN6-2017302771927841885946276449241112
BAKKEN5-2017313233732308102455035649745363
BAKKEN4-201730313333148510461474524712692
BAKKEN3-2017302931429310873242244406781344
BAKKEN2-20172829471291121126545275439351118
BAKKEN1-20173133296335421127249681470842382
BAKKEN12-20163133811334181037546182430322949
BAKKEN11-20162432850326801019539233346574426
BAKKEN10-2016291791618270705325437193445861
BAKKEN9-201615164291604443561159911216320
BAKKEN8-20162580102800

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On Her Way?

It looks like she is on her way to join the "prayer group" protesting Enbridge's Line E crossing into Canada:


Actually, she just came out of "splash day." Every Friday they go to Tutor Time with their swimsuits on to run through the sprinklers. She is drying off now. Not heading to Canada. As far as I know.

Looking Ahead -- The Oasis Ceynar Wells -- July 13, 2018

This page will not be updated.

These wells are still on confidential or DUC status but will be reporting. The Oasis Ceynar wells are tracked here.

Production data for these wells now being posted at the NDIC site.

32965, 12-5 4B:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20184303990745
4-20183758176222
3-20182552556677

32964, 12-5 5T:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20183205995920
4-20183043666335
3-20181577628980

 32963, 12-5 6B:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20183594186232
4-20183224246343
3-20181111019599

32962, 12-5 7T:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20182066759256
4-20183346477041
3-2018932217046

32961, 44-32 11T: 4,693, first month

32960, 44-32 13B: 10,45, first month

32959, 44-32 14TX: 23,611, first month

32958, 44-32 15BX: 19,206, first month

32947, 11-5 3TX:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20181685940797
4-20182100543424
3-20182212248422
2-201833866823

32946, 11-5 2BX:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20182383855737
4-20182696456459
3-20182519153820
2-20181039618016

32945, 42-32 10B: 6,058, first month

32944:,42-32 9T: 4,880, first month

32943, 42-32 8B: 13,003, first month

32801, 42-32 11T: 2,024, first month

19350, 29-32, drilled back in 2011; off line since 9/17 while neighboring wells were being fracked; placed back on line 5/18

Director's Cut -- May, 2018 -- Data -- Look At Flaring In The Reservation (BLM); ND Crude Oil Production -- New All-Time Record

Slow, slow news day. When news is slow I do crazy things waiting for something to post. So, let's do something really crazy: predict North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for the month of May, 2018, that data to be released later today.

Predictions (these are not the actual numbers; actual numbers below), North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production for May, 2018:
  • crude oil production: up 4.3% to 1,277,650 bopd
  • natural gas production will set a new all-time record: up 3.6% to 2,322,808 MCF/day (387,070 boepd)
  • DUCS: will increase by 28 to 970
  • inactive wells: will increase by 87 to 1,608
So, we'll see.

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Director's Cut -- May, 2018 Data

Link here.

See this post.

Disclaimer: the Director's Cut summary that I try to do every month is done very, very quickly. There will be typographical and/or factual errors. That's why I have the link. If this information is important to you, go to the link.

The number is: 1,244,629 bbls/day -- preliminary new all-time high
  • Crude oil: 1,244,629 bbls
  • Natural gas: 2,318,754 MCF/day = 386,395 boepd
  • Total: 1,632,024 boepd
Crude oil production:
  • May, 2018:  1,244,629 bbls/day
  • April, 2018: 1,225,391 bbls/day (preliminary) (all-time high was 1,227,483 bbls/day back in December, 2014)
  • Delta, month-over-month: 19,238 bbls; up 1.6% --
Natural gas production:
  • May, 2018: 2,318,754 MCF/day (386,395 boepd) -- a new all-time record
  • April, 2018: 2,242,093 MCF/day (374,000 boepd) -- previous all-time record
  • March, 2018: 2,119,751 MCF/day (353,000K boepd) -- previous all-time record
  • February, 2018 : 2,106,121 MCF/day (351,000 K boepd)
Well Completions:
  • May, completions, preliminary: 42
  • April, completions, preliminary: 69 (preliminary); actual --> 86
  • March completions: 75
  • February completions: 74
  • January completions: 65
DUCs + inactive wells:
  • DUCs, waiting on completion: 955, up 13 from the end of April to the end of June
  • inactive well count:  1,569, up 48 during same time period
  • May, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,524
  • see "DUC commentary," dated June 29, 2018 
Flaring:
  • statewide: 83%
  • statewide, Bakken: 83%
  • FBIR Bakken: 77% -- federal; atrocious, compared to state
  • ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

NASDAQ Hits Another All-Time Record; S&P 500 Over 2,800 Again, T+43 -- July 13, 2018

Back on the net much sooner than expected. Morning commute was awesome. More on that later. Perhaps.

I mentioned this to one of my granddaughters a few days ago: Starbucks' plan to ban plastic straws will actually result in more, not less, plastic being used. Starbucks will design their plastic caps to incorporate a "plastic" alternative. Restaurants will follow suit. Very similar situation with regard to EVs. The life-cycle of an EV is more damaging to the environment than conventional internal combustion engines. But banning plastic straws and advocating EVs makes folks feel good.

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The Commute

Wow, what a surprise. This week the oldest granddaughter is enrolled in a summer camp about thirty-five minutes east of where we live. We drive through the DFW morning commute. Normally, the swing north of the airport is a parking lot or moves very slowly, but today, easily 55 mph through that choke point, and then 75 mph through the recently-widened "121" near Lewisville on the way to Plano (think Toyota). Only one item of note. A Honda Fit and I tried to move into the same lane at the same time; the other driver never saw us, but slowed down a bit, let that Fit fit in ahead of me; nicely done, and, again, off to the races.

Dropped off Arianna and have found a beautiful, large -- really large -- Starbucks on Preston, near Old Shepherd Road. First time here. I knew it was in the area, but did not know exact location. Turned into mall, and then noted three or four cars driving through the mall parking lot -- nothing is open this time of day -- why would three or four cars be driving through a mall parking lot? Yup, you guessed it. I followed them, guessing they were heading for a Starbucks. They were.

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Back to Business

Market: NASDAQ hits another all-time high. The S&P 500 back up over 2,800 again.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

COP (BR):donates $25,000 to disaster relief efforts following Watford City tornado.

NDIC: There are no wells coming off the confidential list today. The Director's Cut is scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. CDT today.

GoM lease: August -- 78 million acres up for lease -- footprint exceeds that of the Bakken -- this one lease (of course it will be broken into many tracts/blocks and much will likely not be leased -- a reader did the math -- suggesting that the footprint of the GoM lease, at 78 million acres, works out to 300 x 400 miles.
The region-wide lease sale, which is set for Aug. 15, includes all unleased areas in the Gulf’s federal waters, including offshore Louisiana as well as Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Texas, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which regulates offshore drilling and reviews each winning bid.
Natural gas: What's not to like. RBN Energy has been talking about this for quite some time. Under new leadership, Mexico will need more natural gas from the US in the out years than less. Incredibly good news for the US; perhaps not for Mexico:


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Surprise, Surprise! North Korea Cheats; UN Looks The Other Way

From oilprice.com:
The United States has asked the UN Security Council to impose an immediate stop to all shipments of refined oil products to North Korea, after finding that Kim Jong-un’s regime has vastly exceeded the UN-restricted quota for oil product imports.

Under the latest United Nations Security Council sanctions regarding oil sales to North Korea from December 2017, North Korea is allowed to import a maximum aggregate amount of 500,000 barrels of all refined oil products for 12 months beginning on January 1, 2018. The sanctions also introduced a limit of 4 million barrels per a twelve-month period as of 22 December 2017 for the supply, sale or transfer of crude oil to North Korea.
According to the U.S. report to the UN, North Korea received at least 759,793 barrels of oil products between January 1 and May 30, well above the 500,000-barrel annual quota.

Director's Cut Is Scheduled To Be Released Later This Afternoon -- July 13, 2018

Ya gotta love it: in addition to all the money it has already received, the new Williston airport gets more federal funding. The link to the project / XWA is here.
The U.S. Department of Transportation has announced $13.1 million in funding to support construction of the new Williston Basin International Airport. 
That is in addition to the $83.9 million the FAA has already awarded to the project. The total commitment is $112 million. 
The schedule calls for completing the runway, taxiway and terminal building in 2019, as well as other construction needed to open the airport.
The runway and taxiway projects are still on schedule, according to a June airport update that the city released online.
Bon appetit!: Williston city commission unanimously approves food trucks. Joins the rest of the world.

Director's Cut is scheduled to be released late this afternoon.

Active rigs:

$70.247/13/201807/13/201707/13/201607/13/201507/13/2014
Active Rigs67593072190

RBN Energy: Part 2, how US demand is factoring into the 2018 gas storage injection season.
Lower 48 dry gas production has climbed 3 Bcf/d since April to nearly 82 Bcf/d this month to date, which is an average ~9 Bcf/d — or 12% — higher year-on-year. Despite that meteoric rise in supply, the U.S. gas storage inventory, which started the injection season well below year-ago and five-year average levels, continues to carry a substantial deficit. That’s because record demand volumes thus far have managed to keep storage injections in check. Today, we provide an update of the demand factors affecting the 2018 gas injection season.