Thursday, June 7, 2018

Random Update Of Two Re-Fracked MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field And Then Maybe Re-Worked -- #17797, #18382 -- June 7, 2018

The importance of this post: this provides a glimpse what the future could hold for the Bakken in general. This is not new. We've talked about this for years.

A reader noted two nice refracked MRO wells in the Bailey oil field. For newbies: MRO appears to have had an aggressive re-frack program in the Bailey oil field

I had #17797 on my "wells of interest" page; #18382 was added to that page today. Both wells were re-fracked in 2015; the reader suggests that the recent jump in production is due to "re-working" and not another re-frack. FracFocus does not have any data suggesting a recent frack (2017 - 2018).

An earlier post on #17797 here.

The two wells the reader noted:
  • 17797, 499, MRO, Lazy DE 24-7H, Bailey, t8/09; cum 341K 4/18; re-fracked 1/15;
  • 18382, 267, MRO, Lazy De 34-7H, Bailey, t6/10; cum 281K 4/18; re-fracked 1/15;
Production profile for these two wells.

17797 (see link above for production at time of re-frack):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201821857485642010865345924899
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20181001202
BAKKEN1-2018213101070108088
BAKKEN12-201711501314012
BAKKEN11-20171417301912755136601096
BAKKEN10-201731397939541529314202524
BAKKEN9-201730395039611594310702495
BAKKEN8-201731409441411481320802575
BAKKEN7-201731424241721400331402665
BAKKEN6-201730447844911474348102813
BAKKEN5-201730489349141821378703078
BAKKEN4-20171521872132705170701379
BAKKEN3-201731462346621484359202902
BAKKEN2-201727405640881387318902599
BAKKEN1-201731477047491649366202966
BAKKEN12-201631504450461787316702441


18382:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20181774947198877754124279554
BAKKEN4-201810443544977951325112201496
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20181005101
BAKKEN1-2018145030843034
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-201721238224101111173601380
BAKKEN10-201720190720461007142701114
BAKKEN9-201730333733311490251401968
BAKKEN8-201731363536901518263302049
BAKKEN7-201731367036291542269502107
BAKKEN6-201730367736621580269402111
BAKKEN5-201731373638341609278602192
BAKKEN4-201730394838531594282102213
BAKKEN3-201731407241101698295202332
BAKKEN2-201728388338931608281602233
BAKKEN1-201731452944461835323302562


18382 ( production at time of re-frack in 2015 -- notice the jump from 800 bbls to 13,000 bbls/month):
BAKKEN7-201531738879422947489224521466
BAKKEN6-201530613057032295428022511197
BAKKEN5-20153170097069272150643668469
BAKKEN4-2015301235612538601179838045678
BAKKEN3-20152511292109495789724412214672
BAKKEN2-20152811880121585427778026663677
BAKKEN1-20152013208127633763873946622549
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20142668692843454053258
BAKKEN9-20143079369446665630586
BAKKEN8-201431878915498692134278
BAKKEN7-201429771672477619109258
BAKKEN6-20143079691659062057305

Wow, Did Anyone See This Coming? Do Any Dots Connect To The Trump Tariffs? -- June 7, 2018 -- Words That Make Me Tingle When Seen In One Sentence: Solar, Slashed, Surprise

From oilprice.com:
Market researchers are in a rush to lower their solar capacity addition forecasts for this year after China surprised everyone by announcing it will not issue approvals for any new solar power installations this year and will also cut the feed-in tariff subsidy that has been a major driver of the solar business in the country that accounts for as much as 50 percent of capacity.

Reuters reports that companies including IHS Markit and Wood Mackenzie have already revised their solar additions forecasts for the year.
IHS analysts slashed their projections by between 5 and 10 GW of new additions, although in China alone, they saw a potential reduction in new solar capacity of up to 17 GW. Earlier this year, the firm had forecast Chinese solar capacity additions of 53 GW.

Wood Mackenzie, for its part, expects new Chinese solar capacity to be 20 GW lower than earlier forecast, which was 50 GW.

GMT Research also reduced its China new solar capacity additions forecast by as much as 40 percent to 28.8 GW, with one analyst saying, “When the industry talks about China, it’s always about how demand in the region exceeds expectations. That is not going to be the case anymore.”
This is not rocket science. I don't know if anyone saw this coming -- I did not -- but the timing is interesting.

Random Happenings In The Bakken -- June 7, 2018 -- Off The Net For Awhile

This well was recently re-fracked: full update at this post --
  • 18991, 1,053, QEP, MHA 1-19H-150-90, Deep Water Creek Bay, t9/10; cum 272K 4/18;
This well just went off line:
  • 19105, 558, Oasis/Zenergy, Aune 32-29H, Wildcat/Eightmile, Bakken, southwest of Williston, north/west side of the river, t11/10;  just went off line 4/18; nothing going on in this area; no sundry reform;
This well recently came back on line and shows very slight jump in production:
  • 18679, 1,371, CLR, Medicine Hole 2-27H, Jim Creek, Bakken; t7/10; cum 195K 4/18; nothing go on in this area; neighboring well on line all this time; Medicine Hole wells are poor wells; no sundry form to explain slight jump in production; FracFocus negative;
This well was just taken off line (4/18):
  • 18365, 1,379, EOG, Liberty 8-01H, Van Hook, Bakken; t7/10; cum 334K 4/18; far to the south, EOG has three wells on DRL status and they will run parallel to #18365;
This well was just taken off line (4/18):
  • 17918, 2,166, Newfield, Clear Creek Federal 1-26H, Bakken; t8/10; cum 138K 2/18; nothing going on in this area; maybe being re-worked;

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The Road To Venezuela 
Updates

June 11, 2018: I don't know the ins and outs of force majeure, but what little I understand about the term, Venezuela's woes do not qualify. Venezuela's problem was simply mismanagement. I think their customers will see it the same way. I'm disappointed CNBC hasn't discussed it. Whatever. Three more links to bring us up to date:
Original Post

This story is being tracked here. And as far back as 2015.

June 7, 2018; 24 million bbl backlog; Venezuela's fate looks very, very bleak. From the linked article:
Dozens of tankers waiting to load over 24 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are sitting at the country’s main oil export terminal, with the loading delays at almost a month, Reuters reports, citing shipping data. This could put the company in breach of its oil supply contracts with refiners such as Valero and oil majors such as Chevron and China’s CNPC.
Let's put that 24 million bbls in perspective:


For Newbies: A Nice Reminder Of The Stratigraphy In The Williston Basin -- June 7, 2018

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Little Known Fact About The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project

From The Globe and Mail:
The Trans Mountain pipeline project will make it the owner of a spur line that feeds Alberta oil to Washington State’s refineries – and opens up a new front in Canada’s conflict with foes of increased oil capacity.
An environmental coalition in Washington State is gearing up to battle the new owner of the pipeline project, saying Kinder Morgan’s pipeline plans include additional capacity to ship oil to their jurisdiction.
That story is behind a solid pay-wall; the spur to Washington State refineries is also mentioned in this Seattle Times 2016 article

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For Justin

No, I Don't Regret A Thing, Edith Piaf

AAPL: An Open Book Test? -- June 7, 2018

AAPL: This looks like an answer to a question in an open book test. An Apple (AAPL) analyst suggests that AAPL shares at $193 are "flying high" after rising quickly from $173. If I find the link again, I might post it. Probably not. The analyst says that if iPhone sales slow, it's very possible AAPL shares could tumble back to $173.

So, could iPhone sales slow? Sure. I assume everyone saw this article yesterday: Apple is not encouraging folks to upgrade to new iPhones. Apple encourages folks to keep their "old" phones.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

US jobs (link here):
  • prior, revised from 221K to 223K
  • consensus: 220K to 225K
  • actual: 222K
  • delta: a decrease of 1K
  • comment: unremarkable; background noise
Cognitive dissonance: it was interesting to see all the pushback Trump got from the alt-left on this --


I find it incredible that President Obama did not commute the sentence of this woman; one-time cocaine results in a life sentence -- and apparently not much chance for parole -- she's been in prison for 22 years. What a waste. Where was President Obama?

I hope the video at this site stays up for awhile -- ABC News must be going nuts. CNBC, on the other hand, will still be talking about Trump tweeting the other day that he was looking forward to the jobs report. LOL. 



Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Fails To Grow -- June 7, 2018

Zavanna: I normally don't post rumors, but this is an exception. The reader has been a close follower of Zavanna. The reader writes me --
There are some rumors about Zavanna. They have a lot of very good spacing units in Williams County with only one well. But it's been a long time since they have drilled. You can (deep in the internet) find a statement from a former employer that they a just waiting to be sold.
I actually followed Zavanna fairly closely some years ago, but I have not updated the site since 2016. I'm in the process of updating that page now. Some early observations:
  • Zavanna completed about a dozen DUCs in mid- to late-2017
  • Zavanna brought an old well back on line just this month (4/18) after being off line since 7/17 (#17446)
  • Zavanna has many, many wells that have been on confidential list since 2014 and 2015; not sure why that is "being allowed"
  • back in 2015 and 2016, some very old Zavanna wells (drilled in 2010) show impressive jumps in production
It is strange, isn't it? Such great locations and so little activity?

Exactly like the Bakken boom. From Bloomberg via Rigzone --
Jerry Morales, the mayor of Midland, Texas, and a local restaurateur, is being whipsawed by the latest Permian Basin shale-oil boom.
It’s fueling the region and starving it at the same time. Sales-tax revenue is hitting a record high, allowing the city to get around to fixing busted roads. But the crazy-low 2.1 percent unemployment rate is a bear. As the proprietor of Mulberry Cafe and Gerardo’s Casita, Morales is working hard to retain cooks. As a Republican first elected in 2014, he oversees a government payroll 200 employees short of what it needs to fully function.
“This economy is on fire,” he said from a back table at the cafe the other day, watching as the lunchtime crowd lined up for the Asian Zing Salad and Big Mo’s Toaster hamburger.
Fire, of course, can be dangerous. In the country’s busiest oil patch, where the rig count has climbed by nearly one third in the past year, drillers, service providers and trucking companies have been poaching in all corners, recruiting everyone from police officers to grocery clerks. So many bus drivers with the Ector County Independent School District in nearby Odessa quit for the shale fields that kids were sometimes late to class. The George W. Bush Childhood Home, a museum in Midland dedicated to the 43rd U.S. president, is smarting from a volunteer shortage.
The oil industry has such a ferocious appetite for workers that it’ll hire just about anyone with the most basic skills. “It is crazy,” said Jazmin Jimenez, 24, who zipped through a two-week training program at New Mexico Junior College in Hobbs, about 100 miles north of Midland, and was hired by Chevron Corp. as a well-pump checker.
“Honestly I never thought I’d see myself at an oilfield company. But now that I’m here -- I think this is it.”
 Just like the Bakken boom.
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Active rigs:

$65.386/7/201806/07/201706/07/201606/07/201506/07/2014
Active Rigs60522682194

RBN Energy: with TMX and LNG Canada, are Asian markets finally in sight for Canadian producers?
Western Canada is blessed with extraordinary hydrocarbon resources and in recent years has been ramping up production in the Alberta oil sands and in the Duvernay and Montney shale plays. The U.S. is pretty much Canada’s only crude oil and natural gas customer, though, and there are limits to how much Canada can export to its southern neighbor — especially in the Shale Era, with the U.S. producing more oil and gas than ever and meeting an increasing share of its own needs.
So Canadian producers, midstream companies and others have been working to gain access to new, overseas markets. It has not gone well. Pipeline projects to transport oil and gas to the British Columbia coast have been set back time and again, as have plans for crude and LNG export terminals. At last, there may be some good news. The Canadian government has stepped in to help push through a critically important oil pipeline to the coast, and BC’s leading LNG project just signed on a major new investor/customer. Today, we consider recent moves that could finally allow large volumes of Western Canadian oil and gas to be shipped to Asia.