Monday, June 4, 2018

Random Update Of Another Re-Fracked MRO Bailey Oil Field Well -- Great Re-Frack -- June 4, 2018

The well:
  • 17315, 377, MRO, O'Neil 24-24H, Bailey, t7/09; cum 321K 4/18;
Compare production following re-frack production after original frack. 
 
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830759277323545901950233007
BAKKEN3-201831935392294474112029391628
BAKKEN2-201827940393374611106529168323
BAKKEN1-20183110055101926527999473841372
BAKKEN12-201725138391368771991370085153573
BAKKEN11-20171145574769238441283216368
BAKKEN10-201731165271660189531535213007393
BAKKEN9-20173019332192051103317448152030
BAKKEN8-2017312270222766149821794414653680
BAKKEN7-2017272087820693188711148552403873
BAKKEN6-20172258195736455940203044252
BAKKEN5-20172114528145739868110608988393
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20171859460124388467149
BAKKEN1-20173190896626110077240
BAKKEN12-20163110471051255101868238
BAKKEN11-20163095395124090460418

Production data after original frack:
BAKKEN4-201025187618142875263770
BAKKEN3-2010271674164320510178550
BAKKEN2-2010282092213728011219530
BAKKEN1-20103125002537325146712810
BAKKEN12-20093128022785442152815280
BAKKEN11-20093034613464483195519550
BAKKEN10-2009118597263713613610
BAKKEN9-20092828333226341135513550
BAKKEN8-20093154605185880251225120
BAKKEN7-200917517548851097208020800

Random Update Of A BR Croff Well With Jump In Production -- June 4, 2018

The well:
  • 17297, 525, BR, Croff 1-2 H, Croff, t8/08; cum 251K 4/18: FracFocus without any evidence of re-frac; #33143, one-thousand feet away, running parallel, was fracked 10/17;
Recent Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20183038604205875411240380
BAKKEN3-20183145474229736462145440
BAKKEN2-2018152576257836517051535133
BAKKEN1-20182845404662493279027200
BAKKEN12-20173162686518715642863510
BAKKEN11-2017153587301262534943339118
BAKKEN10-20171000000
BAKKEN9-20171100000
BAKKEN8-201714559919507617260
BAKKEN7-2017301155908104158815140
BAKKEN6-20173011421140111154114670
BAKKEN5-20173111921390121161315360
BAKKEN4-2017301142914103166015860
BAKKEN3-20173112571326125154914720
BAKKEN2-20172811411175132125211820
BAKKEN1-201729134916021045634910
BAKKEN12-20162811749011151212112121

The Market, Energy, Polictical Page, Page 2, T+4 -- June 4, 2018

The pipeline is full: US Colonial Pipeline line 34 fully allocated for first time in its history. Link here. Data points:
  • exclusively ships jet fuel
  • carries jet fule to BWI
  • nominations come out of Dorsey, MS
Stockton? Not again. See this post. Apparently the city learned how to spend other people's money -- even when it ran out. Doing it again: a “no strings” guaranteed basic income of $500 a month for its residents.

Interesting, tit-for-tat: China could buy more US coal to settle the trade imbalance. Consider the source. Overheard: China threatens to add a 25% tariff on soybeans; already a 3% tariff and a 13% value-added fee on soybeans (thus 16% "tariff" as President Trump pointed out). I think the new 25% tariff on soybeans would be directed against the US only.

Schultz is out at Starbucks. Eyes "public service." It's pretty obvious that he was also making a public announcement. Oh, by the way, Biden will run again for president. Hillary might as well jump in, assuming her back can take it. Bill is finding his stride, again: a #MeToo victim.

AAPL: market cap -- $943 billion. Today's high: $193.42.
  • 4.92 billion shares
  • $1 trillion / 4.92 billion = $203.25 / share 
UNP: I assume UNP's drop in share price today was due to concerns about NAFTA.

I just love this president. Right, wrong, indifferent -- this president doesn't kowtow to protocol or for political correctness. Disinvites the entire NFL Super Bowl team because some players can't find it in their hearts to respect the flag. Whatever. It sounds like the GSW won't be going to the White House either once the NBA championship is decided. [Later, 3:42 p.m. June 5, 2018: neither team will visit the White House, regardless of whom wins.]

Four New Permits -- June 4, 2018

Bakken Flooding

Bakken flooding: from The Williston Herald --
Missouri River levels continue to run high, with snow melt from Montana pushing its way down the Yellowstone, and the river is walking its way out of its banks in several locations. Farm fields have been flooded, and even a parked vehicle or two has been caught unaware by the rising water levels.
The river level Friday afternoon at the Lewis and Clark Bridge was 24.47 feet, and was expected to gradually climb to 25.1 feet by early next week. Flood stage is 22 feet.
The rise is mainly due to mountain snowpack in Montana, rather than rain, according to meteorologists. Todd Hamilton is with the National Weather Service in Bismarck.
A bit later than usual? Great fishing! Great boating!

*********************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.896/4/201806/04/201706/04/201606/04/201506/04/2014
Active Rigs61512581193

Four new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (3); WPX
  • Fields: Manitou (Mountrail); Spotted Horn (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Dobrovolny pad in section 24-155-94;
And that was all.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+500 -- June 4, 2017

T+500: President Trump says this is his 500th day in office, and rightfully suggests he has been the most "productive" president in modern history. Hard to argue with that.

Law: Wow, "you don't have to bake that cake if you don't want to." This seems incredibly common sense. It's amazing the US Supreme Court had to act on this. 7 - 2. But, there are still "larger" issues to address. That's fine.  Common sense plus a ruling of 7 - 2 really makes one wonder about the "legal thinking" of two of the justices. Imagine if I had walked into a bakery and asked for a cake with a request for an incredibly obscene graphic to be placed on it, and told the baker she had no choice: that she had to provide that incredibly obscene graphic.

Permian: I just happened to catch a few minutes of CNBC. Looks like operators in the Permian are taking a hit. This was another open-book test. Short-term, scary. Long-term, exciting. Another buying opportunity.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, relationship, or job decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple developers' conference: what has impressed me so far -- "group FaceTime." Up to 32 people can be on FaceTime event at same time. Teenagers are going to love this. One could easily apply this to daycare centers. Amazing. Up to 32 "tiles" -- one for each participant but 31 "tiles" miniaturize when the "talking icon" enlarges to fill much of the screen.  This is simply conference calling but knowing Apple it will be seamless -- no calling an operator to "link" everyone in. No calling ahead. Just simply calling in / clicking in and seamlessly becoming part of the 32-person group.

Trade War? What Trade War? Iran Sanctions? What Iran Sanctions? Pushback Against Trump? What Pushback? -- Wow -- Dow Up Over 200 Points In Early Trading -- The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+4 -- June 4, 2018

Time for some music -- in the mood for --

Come On, Eileen, The Dexys Midnight Runners

The market -- oh, before I forget, the disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Now, back to the market:
  • AAPL: $192, up $2.19, up 1.13% -- a new all-time high
  • BABA: $207, up $2.65, up 1.3% -- a new all-time high
  • EOG: $120, up $2.38, up 2% -- am I missing something?
    OAS: $13.29, up 10 cents; up 0.76% -- am I missing something?
  • TSLA: $297.66, up almost $6; up 2% -- a great trading stock
  • SRE: $104,up 18 cents; up 0.24%
  • VLO (see below): $127, up $2.86, up 2.3% -- 52-week high -- another open book test
EV sales, May: the chart is not yet complete, for the month of May, but getting closer.  Check out Tesla deliveries.

SpaceX: speaking of Tesla, I read somewhere that SpaceX won't be launching space-tourists in 2019; original plans have been delayed. I assume the link is easy to find.

Valero: Mike Fitzsimmons has an update on Valero over at SeekingAlpha. Brent-to-WTI discount at $11. US refiners with excellent marine access to the Gulf of Mexico will be in the catbird seat. One of those is Valero, which has a current export capacity of 462,000 bpd.

Facebook: is "slow-rolling" one word, two words, or a hyphenated word? Just wondering.

Study linked over at the Drudge Report: too much bad news can make one sick. This explains the crude/foul language being used by late night talk shows. For the alt-left, there has been nothing but bad news for the past two years.

His movie: Bill Clinton insists he doesn't owe Monica Lewinsky an apology for hijacking her life by taking advantage of her while president – and says HE'S a victim because he left the White House deeply in debt. Speaking of bad news: Bill Clinton left the White House with Hillary. Now, that's a real downer. But since leaving the White House, Bill's fortunes have turned -- in 2017 it was estimated his net worth was $70 million. Hillary? From TownAndCountry magazine:
Since Clinton herself said she and her husband left the White House "dead broke," what they've made since then provides a good idea of their net worth today.
Wealth-X estimates Hillary Clinton's net worth to be at least $18 million, and her federal financial disclosure filing in 2015 showed that she had between $11.3 million and $52.7 million in the bank.
Not so bad considering she's said she and her husband were $12 million in debt at the end of his presidential administration in 2001.
Comment: And their only work as far as I know: speeches and books. 
Melania: apparently Melania is "in hiding." I don't blame her. I hope she has the common sense to drop out of sight for five more years, at least. Will drive the pundits and paparazzi nuts. 

Homeless shelter: in the homeless shelter, despite the heavy downpour of rain this morning, there are only six of us. On the other hand, the drive-through is non-stop and the app-ordering-walk-in-pick-up (AOWIPU) crowd is one heavy stream. In fact it almost looks like a rivulet of drug addicts. The bathrooms, for the most part, remain unoccupied.

Permian Oil Producers And Profitability -- Oilprice -- June 4, 2018

Consider the source, but if "accurate," this might be one of the better articles/analyses I've seen with regard to the Permian.

Long term one can argue this will all take care of itself, but for companies like Oasis who moved out of the Bakken to focus on the Permian must certainly raise some concerns -- with 20-20 hindsight.

From oilprice.com:
The Wall Street Journal recently reported hat only five of the Top 20 U.S. oil companies focused mostly on hydraulic fracking generated more cash than they spent in the first quarter of this year. This continues a trend that has been ongoing throughout the fracking boom.
The WSJ article is here; I think I may have already linked it; don't remember.

Some data points from the linked oilprice.com article:
  • first mentioned: Oasis -- spent $3.27 for every $1 it made; Parsley Energy spent almost $2 for every $1 it made in cash
  • CLR quit hedging in 2014, but is expected to do so "at some point"
    • notably, CLR was reported to have the highest cash flow among its peers; $258 million for 1Q18)
  • EOG was also highlighted for generating $110 million cash surplus for 1Q18
  • The WSJ did not name the other companies that generated positive cash flow
  • the oilprice.com contributor provides his estimates
    • COP led all oil companies with cash flow of $864 million for 1Q18
    • COP: like CLR, not hedged
    • EQT: $172 million
    • Chesapeake: $148 million
    • Cabot Oil & Gas: $117 milllion
    • Cimarex: $41 million
    • biggest loser in the Top 20: Pioneer Natural Resources -- outspent its cash flow by $264 million (Pioneer has been touted as one of the best, if not the best option for "mom-and-pop investors" in by some analysts)
  • lack of cash flow in the Permian partially due to takeaway constraints which won't be resolved until 2019
  • but -- and I've mentioned this several time -- the negative cash flow is also a function of companies investing heavily into (overpaying for) the Permian in anticipation of future production
  • the writer emphasizes: a negative cash flow is not necessarily a concern; it is common in the oil sector
  • "but this [negative cash flow] increases the level of risk for these companies, as a prolonged oil price slump could financially strain the big spenders"
But, wow, take a look at this, things are obviously moving in the correct direction:
My screen of the Top 80 U.S. and Canadian oil and gas companies showed cumulative cash flow from the group at -$669 million for Q1 2018. A year ago, that number was -$6.9 billion.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions  based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

June 4, 2018

Minor note: MDU Resources Group Acquires Tri-City Paving, Inc.

Tariffs: China "already" has a 16% tariff on soybeans. If we're talking "free trade", why is there a tariff on soybeans at all, anywhere? If China has a 16% tariff on soybeans, and the US has a 10% tariff on Chinese steel, are we getting closer to "free trade"? In the eyes of the beholder obviously.

Brazil oil: could Brazilian oil go the way of Venezuela? Unlikely, but ... 

Global warming --> climate change --> air pollution: this is pretty cool. Apparently this transition has been in the background for quite some time, but I had not noticed it until yesterday. I did not keep the link. We are all aware that when "global warming" hysteria was not working, the faux environmentalists morphed the scare to "climate change."  Now, the preferred term, apparently, is "air pollution." I was reminded of that when I was getting on my bike to ride to our local homeless shelter. All of a sudden, a huge clap of thunder and a huge downpour. I didn't check the weather forecast last night, but the day before there was nothing in the weather forecast to suggest any rain today. The forecast was a possibility of some rain east and southeast of here on Friday night and Saturday morning but by Sunday, back to hot weather and more of the same -- hot, sunny weather -- Monday (today). The rain was so heavy I had no option but to drive, and the rain was so heavy, there were moments when the windshield wipers couldn't keep up. The local weather forecasters did not know of this downpour two nights ago, but they know, with 100% certainty, that the earth will be 2 degrees warmer one hundred years from now. [Later: yes, as others join me in the homeless shelter, the opening greeting -- "Well, that was quite a surprise rain storm. And to think the earth is going to be 2 degrees warmer one hundred years from now."]

Star Trek: no what bothers me most this morning? The original Star Trek television series, to the best of my knowledge, never addressed global warming. How was that missed. Nor, apparently did 2001: A Space Odyssey or Planet of the Apes.

Oil production, US: see next entry from Carpe Diem --
  • US oil production:
    • 2008:  5.2 million bopd
    • 2018: 10.4 million bopd
    • note to self: send letter to Jane Nielsen 
  • US renewable energy production:
    • 2017 (a year ago): solar, 77 terawatt-hours; wind, 254 terawatthours 
    • combined total: 331 terawatt-hours
    • equivalent of 1.5 million bopd
  • since 2008, the increase in energy production from oil and gas is equal to seven times the energy output of all domestic solar and wind (per the article linked below)
  • comment: there seems to be a typo and an incorrect "reading" of the graph but the underlying point is well-taken
Oil production, US: from Carpe Diem over the weekend.
Climate-change activists like to claim that renewable energy can power the entire economy and that we should “do the math.” I couldn’t agree more — on the math part. In 2008, US oil production was about 5.2 million barrels per day. Today, it’s about 10.2 million barrels per day. In 2008, domestic gas production averaged about 55.1 billion cubic feet per day. Today, it’s about 87.6 billion cubic feet per day. That’s an increase of about 32.5 billion cubic feet per day, which is equivalent to about 5.5 million barrels of oil per day. Thus, over the past decade, US oil and gas output has jumped by about 10.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (see chart).

Let’s compare that to domestic solar and wind production which, since 2008, has increased by 4,800 percent and 450 percent, respectively. While those percentage increases are impressive, the total energy produced from those sources remains small when compared to oil and gas. In 2017, US solar production totaled about 77 terawatt-hours and wind production totaled about 254 terawatt-hours, for a combined total of 331 terawatt-hours. That’s the equivalent of about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. Simple division (10.5 divided by 1.5) shows that since 2008, the increase in energy production from oil and gas is equal to seven times the energy output of all domestic solar and wind. 

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.406/4/201806/04/201706/04/201606/04/201506/04/2014
Active Rigs60512581193

RBN Energy: natural gas basis implications of Permian production and Takeaway capacity.