- President Donald Trump may restore sanctions on Iran later this week, putting the fate of the Iran nuclear deal in peril
- however, analysts say the sanctions will only have a limited impact on the oil market because some importers like China and India will refuse to cut shipments
- many analysts believe Trump can shrink Iranian shipments by 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day, compared with the 1 million to 1.5 million barrels the Obama administration achieved
- Trump says he has no plans to send Iran $400 million in unmarked $100 bills over the weekend
Huge thank you to Don for sending me the link. My reply:
What is not made clear is whether Trump's 500,000 bbls is "ON TOP" of Obama's 1.5 million bbls or whether they are two separate numbers, which I believe they are (two separate numbers).
At the end of the day, no one really knows how much oil Iran is producing or selling.
Our own API and EIA can't even get the same numbers for weekly US crude inventories, released one day apart. Does one truly think anyone outside of Allah knows how much crude oil Iran is producing, consuming, exporting? LOL.WTI? Solidly over $70 now. Brent? Solidly over $75.
And whether it is 1.5 million OBAMA barrels or 300,000 TRUMP bbls, neither number has any effect on a global market of 100 million bbls production. Shutting down the DAPL would pretty much shut down much of North Dakota and the world would notice that either.
Having said all that, the CNBC guy who wrote that article must not have looked at the oil market today: WTI is going up nicely and if the CNBC guy had looked at my equity portfolio he/she would see that I am quite happy with whatever effect Trump's tweets are having on the market.