Friday, April 20, 2018

Huge Refineries Going Up In China -- April 20, 2018

The largest refinery in the US is the Motiva, at 600,000 bbls crude oil / day. And only one or two other come close. Hold that thought.

From Reuters today:
Chinese private chemical producer Hengli Group has won state approval to import 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) crude oil, the largest quota ever for a private refiner, as it challenges the country’s smaller independent plants in an oversupplied Chinese fuel market.

Another private chemical firm, Zhejiang Ronsheng Group, is also expected to start operating a new 400,000-bpd refinery in the eastern city of Zhoushan later this year. 
I think a lot of folks forget how big China really is.

It would be interesting to know if these refineries are configured/optimized for light, sweet oil (Bakken) or heavy oil (Mideast). I really don't know.

*****************************
Zacks On The Bakken

Link here.  North Dakota oil production slips but set for 2018 milestone -- Zacks.
As per North Dakota’s oil regulator, the state’s daily crude output fell 0.4% in February after edging down 0.3% in the previous month. The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources’ (‘DMR’) latest data said that oil production in February averaged 1,174,769 barrels a day, down 4,795 barrels a day from January.
But unlike crude, natural gas output went up – from January’s 2,071,820 thousand cubic feet per day to 2,102,266 thousand cubic feet per day – a new all-time high. As operators scramble to the core areas of the Bakken, wells here tend to produce more gas along with crude (present gas flare rate of around 15%).
Meanwhile, North Dakota’s total number of producing wells numbered 14,327 at the end of February, essentially unchanged from the previous month.
While the slight drop in oil activity – primarily attributed to cold weather – is the third month-over-month production decrease in a row, the decline was much smaller than anticipated. Moreover, daily output remained above 1 million barrels for the thirteenth month.
Therefore, notwithstanding the temporary blip, the newest numbers confirm the resurgence in volumes extracted from North Dakota, centered on the Bakken Shale formation.

Random Update Of A Zavanna Gust Well in Long Creek, April 20, 2018

Updates

April 23, 2018: a reader with an interest in this area writes:
Well number 19981, the jump in production was after fracking Gust wells 28885 and 28886.

In my view, Zavanna has used the Nelson and Gust wells to test Middle Bakken and TFH combinations, the Nelson 26776 and Nelson 26777 are TFH wells and the old 20085 Middle Bakken. 28885 is a TFH and 28886 is a Middle Bakken.

The Nelsons are fracked with 35 stages. Gust with 50 stages. Some has a GL (gas lift); others AL and one still F.

A Zavanna testbed?
I think the reader is exactly correct. Operators are testing completion strategies on newer wells, taking offset wells into consideration. Also, don't forget the microseismic array across the Bakken. 
 
Original Post 

Wow, this is quite remarkable, and why I love to blog. I already noted this well some time ago -- and predicted they were going to be huge wells. See this post.

This page will not be updated; the wells are followed at the link above.

Look at the recent production profile for this well:
  • 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek, t3/12; cum 455K 2/18, partial production profile:
There is no evidence this well was re-fracked (FracFocus or sundry form). However, a sundry form said a work-over was accomplished on/about October, 2016: MIRU workover rig; pull GLA; perform cleanout; install GLA; RDMO workover rig; return to production 10/3/16.

This appears to be simply the result of a work-over. This is quite fascinating. Earlier today, for newbies, I posted the "life" of a Bakken well. A little over six years old, almost 500K and one workover. Pretty exciting.

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20182840563905449128253263631473
BAKKEN1-20183149354847561731052277732817
BAKKEN12-2017314885442751762937427986926
BAKKEN11-20173052295103512229594274131734
BAKKEN10-2017315600560761262995429259233
BAKKEN9-201730581159436297292712873985
BAKKEN8-201731667863336843299522946921
BAKKEN7-201731734169897682294772892986
BAKKEN6-2017305441534466842109719965685
BAKKEN5-2017317567757089292781126830519
BAKKEN4-2017308734785092482967429014213
BAKKEN3-201731106131032710022308123032525
BAKKEN2-2017288719827589312247621935124
BAKKEN1-201728775074668742173201680994
BAKKEN12-2016311140810985132762590624691753
BAKKEN11-2016301343312803145202831627600269
BAKKEN10-2016311624815543161603131430449403
BAKKEN9-201610001500
BAKKEN8-201627237722662797109829670910
BAKKEN7-201631169815702128803658931681
BAKKEN6-20163037823614451898887979146

Comments: none now. Maybe later.

T+51 -- North Korea Announces It Will Freeeze All Nuclear Testing -- No Pre-Conditions -- Unilateral -- The Golden Age -- Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 20, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.404/20/201804/20/201704/20/201604/20/201504/20/2014
Active Rigs59492892188

Five new permits:
  • Operators: NP Resources (3); Oasis; WPX
  • Fields: Tree Top (Billings); Banks (McKenzie); Wolf Bay (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Two permits renewed:
  • Sinclair: two Diamond permits in McKenzie County
Six producing wells completed:
  • 33827, 690, Hess, CA-E Burdick-LW-155-95-2017H-1, Beaver Lodge, t4/18; cum --
  • 33831, 949, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-7, Capa, t3/18; cum --
  • 33828, 851, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-10, Capa, t4/18; cum --
  • 33829, 742, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-9, Capa, t4/18; cum --
  • 33004, n/d, Petroshale, Petroshale US 4H, Antelope, Sanish pool, no data --
  • 33005, 1,560, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope, Sanish pool, no data --

Scott Adams Would Call This An Example Of Simulation -- April 20, 2018

Re-posting from earlier: 
Updates
Later, 3:52 p.m. CT: this is pretty funny. Earlier today, I guess about 7:20 a.m. I wrote the following note (below the screenshot) about the "coolest tweet so far today." I though it was a somewhat ridiculous item and considered deleting it, but there wasn't much else going on, so I left it alone. My thought was this: if President Trump feels that the high price of oil/gasoline could threaten his presidency/re-election, he would take steps to increase US production. LOL. Now this headline from oilprice.com (link here): 




Original Post
Coolest tweet so far today: President Trump says oil prices are "too high" and blames OPEC. I don't suppose Trump can do much about OPEC. Some say he can affect price of oil with his actions in the Mideast (think sanctions on Iran). Perhaps, but having said that, this was my immediate thought: there's been a lot of talk recently about the possibility of a recession in 2019. Oil at $100 / bbl could certainly make that possibility more likely. Something tells me President Trump would prefer not to end his first (last?) term with the US in recession. If he thinks the price of oil could be a problem for the US economy, my hunch he will do what he can to support the US oil and gas sector. I don't think he can actually do much, but his administration certainly won't do anything to slow the oil and gas sector. In the big scheme of things, all this talk is probably a "wash," but it pleases me that the president is talking about this rather than talking about sports.
This is the way the EPA proposes to be more flexible, from the linked oilprice.com source above:
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to announce on Friday a new policy that could help avoid costly legal battles over companies violating pollution standards in the oil and gas industry, by encouraging them to self-report and fix violations rather than wait for EPA to conduct investigations.
The head of the office of enforcement of EPA, Susan Bodine, plans to announce the policy—which is not yet finalized—at an event in Dallas today.
EPA’s new policy will be focused on giving oil and gas firms more flexibility if they elect to self-audit their emissions and report violations. 
The new policy is expected to be launched as a pilot program at first, focusing only on providing oil and gas companies with more audit alternatives, first only for recently acquired firms audited by their new owner. 
One flexibility for the oil and gas industry that EPA is mulling over is to extend the period of time that companies will have to fix their pollution after having reported the violation to EPA.  
The new policy is part of the Trump Administration’s idea to find alternatives to costly formal lawsuits. The new plan will also be used to highlight the message that the “audit refresh” is “open for business."

Random Update Of A WPX Wolf Well In Squaw Creek -- April 20, 2018

The well:
  • 19973, 141 (no typo), WPX, Wolf 27-34H, Squaw Creek, t7/11; cum 265K 2/18;
Comments:
  • this well started out as a very poor well based on the IP (141)
  • initial production (first year) was pretty good for Bakken wells back in 2011, but nothing great
  • it puttered along; quickly declining and plateauing to 1400 bbls/month
  • then, no evidence of a re-frack (no FracFocus data; no sundry form) -- but after being off-line for less than 30 days, production spiked from 1300 bbls/month to almost 9,000 bbls/month 
  • it was taken off-line for awhile -- probably while work was being done on the pad; the operator put a storage tank on the pad
  • think about that: this well has been producing since 2011; everyone says the decline rate is atrocious; but something happened in 2018 -- seven years later -- that the company thought it cost-effective to put a(nother) tank on the pad; see recent production below
The Wolf wells are tracked here. They need to be updated. The graphic needs to be updated.

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-201810266725611441463311643001
BAKKEN1-20181137243658185564806075352
BAKKEN12-2017316820660164171184852545231
BAKKEN11-2017306405644274521112457474080
BAKKEN10-2017318714870891571513679975574
BAKKEN9-20173085048631138021477176965553
BAKKEN8-2017203026290110314525627361948
BAKKEN7-20171201404
BAKKEN6-20172089195841715481013121
BAKKEN5-2017311376130763923891467151
BAKKEN4-2017301341133170823281350223
BAKKEN3-2017311525148968726501498357

Random Update Of The First Oasis Spratley Well, Alkali Creek -- April 20, 2018

Updates

July 3, 2018: look at the continued great production --

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20183012544124761971031052154651
BAKKEN4-201830136301379224382328519471038
BAKKEN3-201831162741616032399425327571186
BAKKEN2-20182010253977726971403126751156
BAKKEN1-201827749683292725613237012967
BAKKEN12-201729872478423868613508013218
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017128821443465180601676
BAKKEN8-2017312793243679050550


Original Post 

This is so cool. From an August 22, 2017, post:
FWIW: the Spratley wells have been updated; many went from loc to drl. Several DUCs. The original Spratley well is pushing toward 500,00 bbls.
  • 19946, 1,474, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13H, Alkali Creek, cased hole, 4.4 million lbs (sand + ceramic), t10/11; cum 523,282; still producing at 3,000 bbls/month (6/17)
So, here's the update (see below). The Spratley wells are followed here but need to be updated. There is no evidence that this well has been re-fracked (no FracFocus data nor any Oasis sundry form). It was placed on a submersible pump as of 2/18.

This is a cool well/update because I just posted, for newbies, the life of a Bakken well over at this post

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20182010253977726971403126751156
BAKKEN1-201827749683292725613237012967
BAKKEN12-201729872478423868613508013218
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017128821443465180601676
BAKKEN8-20173127932436790505504755
BAKKEN7-20173127963118830505304753
BAKKEN6-20173026932403688487804578
BAKKEN5-201731334435601240694106631
BAKKEN4-201730323234881135579505495
BAKKEN3-20173134053544923523549250
BAKKEN2-20172830182430946541140031128
BAKKEN1-201731384037351163662563150
BAKKEN12-201631319538061211554752370
BAKKEN11-20162226962729269337331530
BAKKEN10-20162630432863764517151710
BAKKEN9-20163031292882868690466040
BAKKEN8-201631369936291429847681660
BAKKEN7-201631398041551255851482040
BAKKEN6-201630353340001245757272720
BAKKEN5-201631458041591024641661060
BAKKEN4-20162938544053929564053500
BAKKEN3-20161925232351600427740870
BAKKEN2-201629363537291115642961390
BAKKEN1-201631383834911025661263020
BAKKEN12-201531415944501260736470540
BAKKEN11-201530418845451230766673660
BAKKEN10-201531492443591665844581350
BAKKEN9-201522383141191007579555750
BAKKEN8-201525445642731209667964290
BAKKEN7-201531521757391700863283220
BAKKEN6-201528455038131940599357130
BAKKEN5-201529535255371840732770370
BAKKEN4-201530638367012325706567650
BAKKEN3-201531766172522881819178810
BAKKEN2-201524613467031900572557250
BAKKEN1-201516372228791140333233320
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-2014810761443634329232920
BAKKEN9-20142855575744174013646136460
BAKKEN8-20143162716157229012298122980
BAKKEN7-201430700971462141631163110
BAKKEN6-201427761874032075696569650
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-201415277731138901772905867
BAKKEN3-201431672562481829826782670
BAKKEN2-201428579256171688685368530
BAKKEN1-201423583863231465481048100
BAKKEN12-20131434172930156520069841022
BAKKEN11-201329581161631478780378030
BAKKEN10-201331706071462054665256471005
BAKKEN9-201330714478252060723634113825
BAKKEN8-201324434135041232412341230
BAKKEN7-201331696572801789558155810
BAKKEN6-201329774476491999729872980
BAKKEN5-201327834978992002390039000
BAKKEN4-20131833813813985536253620
BAKKEN3-201331850480792391895289520
BAKKEN2-201328734781522474510051000
BAKKEN1-201326818187081832837483740
BAKKEN12-20123194068483242414438144380
BAKKEN11-20123094419352228011960102751685
BAKKEN10-2012319825101322682984209842
BAKKEN9-201230948892982683984509845
BAKKEN8-2012311008310766307811421011421
BAKKEN7-2012311099810768185011601011601
BAKKEN6-2012301145011270284511931011931
BAKKEN5-2012311343313094278313995013995
BAKKEN4-2012291454314087323314384014384
BAKKEN3-2012291543215513360816235016235
BAKKEN2-2012311011095403115801158
BAKKEN1-2012312117821855526422278022278
BAKKEN12-2011312110221194512422200022200
BAKKEN11-2011302846028673744329939029939
BAKKEN10-20113142330417161486144531044531
BAKKEN9-2011151334712722382514042014042

Random Update Of Statoil Russel Well In Painted Woods -- April 20, 2018

The well:
  • 19930, two frack/IP (see below), Statoil, Russell 10-3 1H, Painted Woods, cum 286K 2/18;
    • first frack: 5/22/11 -- 2,670, 36 stages; 4 million lbs; large/small ceramic
    • second frack: 8/11/17 -- 82, 1.9 million lbs, all mesh
For newbies: this is an important data point/random well update. The Bakken is now in the manufacturing phase. Bakken wells:
  • will be drilled
    • some will go immediately into production
    • some will be fracked/completed later (DUCs) -- within two years
  • once completed, Bakken wells will:
    • have pumps installed
    • undergo work-overs (think roto-rooter)
    • undergo mini-re-fracks
    • be re-fracked: standard re-fracks; high-intensity re-fracks
    • taken off-line while neighboring wells are fracked/re-fracked
    • come back off -line once work on neighboring wells is completed
    • be remotely "managed" for production
  • will produce for 35 years (source: NDIC) 
  • with "current" EURs of --
    • less than 500,000 bbls: poor wells
    • 500,001 - 750,000 bbls: "okay" wells for those with low expectations
    • 750,001 - 1,000,000 bbls: expectations for Bakken wells on the fringe
    • 1,000,001 -- 1,500,000: expectations for Bakken wells inside the fringe
    • > 1.5 million bbls: currently not much said about EURs greater than 1.5 million bbls ...
#19930 is a good example of a fairly mediocre well simply undergoing a very small re-frack -- few stages (it was a long lateral) and very little proppant and it was all mesh, relatively inexpensive to re-accomplish. By the way, this well is the only one in this drilling unit and is located on the fringe.

Wow, Wow, Wow! I Did Not See This Coming -- Legacy Fund Deposits Drop Significantly In April, 2018, After Seven Months Of Increasing

Link here.

Another First For The Expanded Panama Canal -- Making Panama Great Again! -- April 20, 2018

This has always been a burr under my saddle. I always thought the NY TImes article was a bit racist, suggesting the Panamanians attempt to widen the canal would go awry. The original post and updates are at this link.

Today, from Bloomberg: a first for the Panama Canal -- three LNG tankers crossed in one day. Wow.
Three liquefied natural gas tankers sailed through the Panama Canal on the same day this week, marking a first for the newly expanded waterway and highlighting the booming global gas trade.
All three ships -- Gaslog Hong Kong, Gaslog Gibraltar and Clean Ocean -- entered the canal on a staggered basis from the Pacific side Tuesday and had completed their crossings by early Wednesday, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. A representative for the canal authority confirmed the tanker moves.
The crossings underscore how the LNG trade has surged worldwide as new export facilities from the U.S. to Australia rumble to life and buyers in Asia boost their demand for the fuel. Since the canal completed a $5 billion expansion almost two years ago, traders and terminal developers have been closely watching the authority's ability to accommodate the jump in tanker traffic.
And more:
Dominion Energy Inc.'s Cove Point LNG terminal -- the second to send U.S. shale gas overseas -- started commercial service this week, roughly two years after Cheniere Energy Inc. opened up its Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Thus far, Sabine Pass has shipped more than 300 cargoes to 26 countries.
As of March, the Panama Canal has seen 134 LNG vessels pass through it this fiscal year, according to a statement. Though this marks the first time three ships made the transit in one day, two ships have made the journey in 24 hours more than a dozen times.
********************************
Exonyms and Endonyms

From wiki:
An exonym or xenonym is an external name for a geographical place, or a group of people, an individual person, or a language or dialect. It is a common name used only outside the place, group, or linguistic community in question.
An endonym or autonym is an internal name for a geographical place, or a group of people, or a language or dialect. It is a common name used only inside the place, group, or linguistic community in question; it is their name for themselves, their homeland, or their language.
For instance, "Germany" is the English language exonym, "Allemagne" is the French language exonym, and "Deutschland" is the endonym for the same country in Europe.
Japan is an exonym. The Japanese names (endonyms) for Japan are Nippon and Nihon.

And now the dots start to connect:
Before modern styles of romanization, the Portuguese devised their own. In it, /zi/ is written as either ii or ji
In modern Hepburn style, iippon would be rendered as Jippon
There are no historical phonological changes to take into account here. Etymologically, Jippon is similar to Nippon in that it is an alternative reading of 日本. The initial character 日 may also be read as /ziti/ or /zitu/.
Compounded with /hoɴ/ (本), this regularly becomes Jippon. Unlike the Nihon/Nippon doublet, there is no evidence for a *Jihon.
Wow. There you have it. It appears the Portuguese, before the "modern styles of romanization," provided the direct link to the exonym: Japan.

One can stop here, but wiki continues:
As mentioned above, the English word Japan has a circuitous derivation; but linguists believe it derives in part from the Portuguese recording of the early Mandarin Chinese or Wu Chinese word for Japan: Cipan (日本), which is rendered in pinyin as Rìběn (IPA: ʐʅ˥˩pən˨˩˦), and literally translates to "sun origin". Guó (IPA: kuo˨˦) is Chinese for "realm" or "kingdom", so it could alternatively be rendered as Cipan-guo. 
The word was likely introduced to Portuguese through the Malay Jipang. Cipangu was first mentioned in Europe in the accounts of Marco Polo. It appears for the first time on a European map with the Fra Mauro map in 1457, although it appears much earlier on Chinese and Korean maps such as the Gangnido. Following the accounts of Marco Polo, Cipangu was thought to be fabulously rich in silver and gold, which in Medieval times was largely correct, owing to the volcanism of the islands and the possibility to access precious ores without resorting to (unavailable) deep-mining technologies. 
The Dutch name, Japan, may be derived from the southern Chinese pronunciation of 日本, Yatbun or Yatpun. The Dutch J is generally pronounced Y, hence Ja-Pan.