CLR's Syracuse And Chicago Wells Soon To Come Off The Confidential List -- Nice Wells -- Banks Oil Field -- March 28, 2018

Updates

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --

• 23050, 954, CLR, Syracuse 3-23H, Banks, looks like a nice well; see below; all NG being sold; t10/12; cum 332K 10/19; off line starting in 10/19;
  

Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	20	2899	3132	2562	5347	5218	129
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	5480	5421	5405	10015	9825	190
BAKKEN	2-2018	22	4646	4465	5227	7775	6940	835
BAKKEN	1-2018	28	7432	7748	6802	13688	12785	903
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	10302	10157	14276	17655	15363	2292
BAKKEN	11-2017	1	721	556	845	558	558	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	10	478	645	202	761	761	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	1748	1736	777	2805	2805	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1846	2056	885	3031	2959	72
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1873	1682	865	3081	3081	0

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --

• 23051, 505, CLR, Syracuse 4-23H, Banks, t10/12; cum 322K 10/19;

Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	5187	5260	10027	7485	3886	3599
BAKKEN	3-2018	22	2795	2461	7771	3478	3355	123
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	10727	11050	19495	20471	17912	2559
BAKKEN	1-2018	19	11078	10687	18524	20626	16520	4106
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	13	695	994	467	2248	2248	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	1970	2005	1269	5370	5370	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1823	1698	1147	3975	3855	120
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1404	1315	942	3353	3353	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1177	1344	1056	3742	3742	0

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well comes off confidential list today.  This page has been update including results of two recently fracked wells (scroll to bottom).

April 22, 2018: see update at this post.

March 29, 2017: stand-alone post for this well at this post.

• 19740, 646, CLR, Syracuse 1-23H, Banks, t7/11; cum 485K 10/19;
  

According to FracFocus it has not been re-fracked. Here's the recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	11245	11321	17174	18919	18066	853
BAKKEN	1-2018	27	16833	16227	23452	31462	23696	7766
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	15	690	976	405	1572	1572	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1768	1710	962	4067	4067	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1777	1695	1028	4226	4226	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1915	2014	1092	4530	4530	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2351	2432	1335	4718	4718	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	28	1539	1343	880	2719	2719	0

Original Post 

Back on February 20, 2018 -- about a month ago -- I noted that an old CLR Chicago well (#19590) might be interesting to follow up in a few months.

The well:

• 19590, 540, CLR, Chicago 1-26H, Banks, t5/11; cum 377K 10/19;

FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked; nor is there any sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked. The recent production data certainly suggests it was re-fracked, but if it has, I don't see the evidence yet.

Note the recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	10086	10123	13057	17610	16210	1400
BAKKEN	1-2018	30	16821	16248	23381	27791	20891	6900
BAKKEN	12-2017	4	1333	1259	310	2264	0	2264
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	13	500	673	289	1428	1428	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1583	1999	910	4059	4059	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	16	630	0	547	1329	1326	3
BAKKEN	6-2017	15	499	588	272	1711	1711	0

Now, to check the neighboring wells.

The graphic:

It turns out that the neighboring wells have been fracked, and their initial production numbers are quite good.

First, the most recent one that has come off the confidential list, only 580 feet to the east:

• 30159, 2,609, CLR, Chicago 6-26H1, Banks, Three Forks, 57 stages; 7.5 million lbs, API - 33-053-06529; Banks, t2/18; cum 223K 10/19; according to FracFocus, fracked 11/8/2017 - 11/26/2017;

Initial production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	42448	42528	35661	68762	55316	13446
BAKKEN	1-2018	10	11200	10953	11100	23525	18425	5100
BAKKEN	12-2017	2	2113	2038	2663	3830	0	3830

But that was a Three Forks well and the parent well was a middle Bakken well. What about the other three wells (#30160, #30158, and #30161)? Yes, they have all been fracked and all have great production numbers, but are still on the confidential list. But note, only one of the three will run south, #30161:

30160, Syracuse, Three Forks, runs north:

• 30160, 1,650, Syracuse 6-23H1, Banks, t1/18; cum 232K 10/19;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2018	34263	55487
1-2018	13806	19512
12-2017	2414	0

30158, Syracuse, runs north:

• 30158, 1,404, CLR, Syracuse 5-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 323K 10/19;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2018	46105	53898
1-2018	10533	14256
12-2017	2935	0

30161, Chicago, runs south:

• 30161, 2,004, Chicago 5-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 253K 10/19;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2018	27642	46985
1-2018	13961	16767
12-2017	3031	0

What about the other two to the west? They, too, have been fracked and are great wells. One will run south, and one will run north:

29798, Chicago, runs south:

• 29798, 1,916, CLR, Chicago 7-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 329K 10/19;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	29513	29215	17750	76323	24972	51351
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	33970	33896	18632	64437	49037	15400
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	39691	39803	21069	70746	65185	5561
BAKKEN	1-2018	30	41967	41515	26835	73810	56128	17682
BAKKEN	12-2017	1	1731	1639	4151	1235	0	1235

30168, Syracuse, will run north:

• 30168, 2,107, CLR, Syracuse 7-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 320K 10/19;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	28962	28570	13908	80639	35194	45445
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	31844	31863	13120	65090	50959	14131
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	36006	35846	13950	61898	58635	3263
BAKKEN	1-2018	30	44078	44066	20186	75359	54287	21072
BAKKEN	12-2017	6	2774	2492	555	4993	0	4993

Put Another Log On The Fire -- Another Bakken Story -- Re-Accomplishing A Failed Frack -- MRO In Bailey Oil Field, #19553 -- March 28, 2018

An example of "saving" a well in the Bakken. 

The well:

• 19553, 42 (no typo), MRO, Lucy Fleckenstein 34-20H, API - 33-025-01165, Bailey, t5/11; cum 222K 1/18; failed frack in 2011; in 2014, the decision was made to "sidetrack" this well, going down the existing well-bore and punching out at 11,449 feet. This they did, re-fracked with 30 stages and 3.9 million lbs sand, and reported an IP of 2,491 on 2/26/2015. 
• Note: they re-fracked this well at the same time they fracked a number of wells in the immediate area

Production profile of interest:

BAKKEN	9-2015	30	6927	6889	4544	4916	1962	2033
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	7417	7426	4697	5665	4338	352
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	6695	6785	4296	4616	2984	730
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	11078	10952	6412	6489	4568	566
BAKKEN	5-2015	14	5834	5990	4795	3249	2302	244
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	12716	12587	12226	8810	4583	2686
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	14765	15758	11931	16599	9385	5454
BAKKEN	2-2015	11	18827	17656	532	14127	3647	8409
BAKKEN	1-2015	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	1	1	234	0	1	0	1
BAKKEN	9-2014	28	332	464	48	344	0	149
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	319	228	25	363	0	143
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	328	224	23	368	0	147

Put Another Log On The Fire, Tompall Glaser

Shale Operators Running Out Of Core Drilling Locations? Not Yet -- Filloon -- March 28, 2018

Earlier this post: Update on the Permian -- Mike Filloon.  Link here. Part 2 here.

• Occidental, Chevron, EOG, and RSP Permian  have the top oil curves of operators with multiple completions
• Delaware well design improvements have increased oil production per location by 18% yoy. We believe there is greater upside in the Delaware in 2017 than in Midland. It is possible the Delaware has more upside than any other US play
• Lea County is starting to separate itself as the best county, although northern Loving has had a few mammoth results
• the drop in world oil inventories is enough to start pushing short pops in prices. We think WTI will push above $70/bbl by June, but pushing above $75 will be difficult 

There was something else Mike mentioned in that article -- in fact, he led with it:

In our previous article, we provided oil production data from the Midland Basin. From 2016 to 2017, this improved 32.5%.

Oil bears have stated that they believe operators will run out of core geology, and this will seal the fate of unconventional US oil producers. It is inevitable that shale will eventually dry up, but it doesn't seem to be occurring in the near future.

In a recent article, we provided an oil price estimate for the 2018 driving season. US operators continue to increase oil production, but it probably will not meet increased demand. We expect relatively large oil draws, and WTI to eclipse $70/bbl and peak at $75. This should push the US Oil ETF higher by 12% in just a few months. Oil prices should drop after and trade in the $60 to $70 range throughout 2018. It will be difficult to push oil prices above $75, as the resultant oil production could outpace demand.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- Pretty Much Ho-Hum -- March 28, 2018

Weekly petroleum report:

• crude oil inventories: increased by 1.6 million bbls; now at 429.9 million bbls
• refineries operating at 92.3% operable capacity -- nice; pretty much the sweet spot between 92 - 94%
• gasoline production up a bit; distillate fuel production up a bit
• if folks weren't following crude oil inventories so closely, this would pretty much be a ho-hum report

Days of crude oil supply in the US: pretty much unchanged at 26 days

WTI: I'm impressed the price of WTI held as well as it did. By the way, did you all see that Mike Filloon expects WTI to get to $70 by June? That's only three months from now. I don't see that happening. Maybe $68?  But that's quibbling.

Gasoline demand:

Active Rigs Take A Nice Jump To 62; Five New Permits Six Permits Renewed, But No DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 28, 2018

Active rigs:

$64.38↓	3/28/2018	03/28/2017	03/28/2016	03/28/2015	03/28/2014
Active Rigs	62	49	31	97	194

Five new permits:

• Operators: Whiting (4); BR
• Fields: Banks (McKenzie); Pershing (McKenzie)
• Comments: Whiting -- seemingly the most active operator in the Bakken right now -- permits for a 4-well Renbarger pad in SESW 33-154-97

Six permits renewed:

• Oasis (5): perhaps the second most active operator in the Bakken right now -- five Domalakes permits, all in Burke County
• Enerplus: a Morgan permit in Dunn County

And that was all.

FWIW -- Update On The Permian -- Mike Filloon, Part 2 -- March 28, 2018

Update on the Permian -- Mike Filloon.  Link here. Part 2 here. See also this post.

• Occidental, Chevron, EOG, and RSP Permian  have the top oil curves of operators with multiple completions
• Delaware well design improvements have increased oil production per location by 18% yoy. We believe there is greater upside in the Delaware in 2017 than in Midland. It is possible the Delaware has more upside than any other US play
• Lea County is starting to separate itself as the best county, although northern Loving has had a few mammoth results
• the drop in world oil inventories is enough to start pushing short pops in prices. We think WTI will push above $70/bbl by June, but pushing above $75 will be difficult

Saudi Announces Ready To Start On World's Largest Solar Power Project -- WSJ -- March 28, 2018

Final 4Q17 GDP: almost hit the 3% threshold we were "promised." Final reading: 2.9% vs 2.7% expected. And the 2.9% is up from the previously reported 2.5%.

Later today: EIA crude oil inventory data and gasoline demand.

************************************

Solar

Saudis, SoftBank Group announce world's largest solar power project. Development to start this year with a $1 billion investment from Saudi-SoftBank Vision Fund. From The WSJ.

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund and Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. announced plans to launch the world’s biggest solar-power-generation project, providing another ambitious goal for two of the world’s richest investors.

The development would start this year with a $1 billion investment from the joint Saudi-SoftBank Vision Fund, said Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank. It is expected to grow into a $200 billion behemoth that provides about 200 gigawatts of power by 2030, he added—more power than Saudi Arabia would need to light up the entire country by then.

The first stage of the project will cost around $5 billion and begin this year, Mr. Son said, with the installation of solar panels that will produce around 7.2 gigawatts of power in 2019. Most of it will be financed with debt.

We've talked about Saudi's solar energy program on many occasions. The numbers are "all over the place." Not long ago, the Saudi's goal was 3.45 GW by 2020, so increasing to 7.2 GW is significant. But announcing a $1 billion-downpayment for a $200 billion-project speaks volumes.

Everyone agrees that this is an existential issue for Saudi Arabia. If the kingdom does not quit burning oil to produce electricity for summer air conditioning, Saudi Arabia will be a net importer of crude oil in less than ten years.

This is the other problem:

And this is the other, other problem (note that crude oil prices have improved, and yet Saudi's cash reserves decreased month-over-month, after an improvement in recent months), link here:

 *******************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.70↓	3/28/2018	03/28/2017	03/28/2016	03/28/2015	03/28/2014
Active Rigs	60	49	31	97	194

RBN Energy: rebounding E&Ps curb CAPEX growth, use capital to reward shareholders.

Another MLP bites the dust, but that's a good thing -- Motley Fool. A familiar name: Tallgrass Energy Partners. Others mentioned.