Tuesday, March 27, 2018

30-Second Elevator Speech -- March 28, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Driverless / autonomous driving: dead.

China / North Korea / US: huge turn of events. Xi-Trump-Kim triangulation. US seldom comes out in a "winning" position when two foes complete the threesome.


Mideast: off everyone's radar scope. Quiet won't last.

ObamaCare: back in the news. Most thought it was dead. Not.

Facebook: huge losses anticipated even if losses limited to a) no more selling data; b) lawsuits. If only revenue is from on-screen advertising, market value of Facebook plummets. When was the last time you clicked on an ad at your Facebook account?

California: civil war with itself over sanctuary cities. Link.

US auto industry: rolling back 2022 - 2025 CAFE standards could be worse for the auto industry than keeping them. With CAFE standards rolled back, US auto industry in a no-win situation: California vs US.

US auto industry, sticker shock: surveys suggest Americans unable to afford new models.

Tesla: I thought Tesla would survive 2018 just fine. But no more: a) Norway syndrome; b) Moody's downgrade; c) fiery crashes; d) poor craftsmanship; e) Jaguar - I-PACE - 20,000 auto fleet announced.


Market: everyone spooked.

Fake news: will only get worse. Print media: what you read, defines you.



******************************
Shaden

See this post.

You can track the supertanker Shaden at this site.


Projected route of the Schaden:


Long, Long Note Regarding An MRO Pad -- Initial Production, If Accurate, Set New Bakken Records -- March 27, 2018

Update:


March 31, 2018: see comments below --
FYI: 33535 by Marathon in January produced 61,186 barrels in 21 days if the information is correct. At that rate for 31 days it would have been 90,322. 
#33535: Arkin 44-12TFH Bench 1. Recent lone well in Bailey looked like 45 stages with only 6 million lbs. of proppant? Comment: I do remember Lynn Helms suggesting the first bench of the Three Forks might have better wells than the middle Bakken. Overall, the middle Bakken will produce more due to a larger footprint, but the Three Forks, upper bench, well vs well, might actually produce better wells. Truly amazing, isn't it?
March 28, 2018: when I saw the initial monthly production data for #30135 below, I assumed the data had to be wrong, but then when I saw similar data from its sister wells, I figured the data had to be correct (there couldn't have been that many typos). But these monthly production numbers are quite incredible. When I questioned whether the data might be in error, a reader wrote (see first comment):
The improvement in output - most specifically the early months (and Marathon has been on an absolute tear lately) - would lead me to believe the latest iterations of fracturing are showing results like the ones you just posted.

Perhaps more explanations will be forthcoming on the next conference call, but effective introduction of micro proppants, skillful implementation of diversion products, competent monitoring of real time seismic which allow extensive fracturing in the most carbon-rich areas all tend to produce more hydrocarbons.

If the operators are using the elevated, induced pressure from the frac to "push" oil to the wellbore, more will be recovered - at least in the early going - from these recent completions.

The dynamic evolution in unconventional production continues at a still-dizzying speed as these above numbers indicate.

Original Post

For newbies: to put these wells-- down below -- in perspective --
  • if you have one well, and the first month's production is 10,000 bbls of oil, open a bottle of champagne
  • if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production for each well works out to 10,000 bbls of oil, go out for a steak dinner and order two bottles of champagne
  • if you have one well, and the first month's production is 30,000 bbls of oil, hire a financial advisor, take him/her to dinner with you; order at least three bottles of champagne
  • if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production of each well works out to 30,000 bbls of oil, quit your day job, move to Hawaii, and take your financial advisor with you; buy a vineyard in Napa Valley, California
  • if you have six wells on a pad like the one below: call Warren Buffett; ask him if he needs another partner
************************************
This note is a big deal, at least for me. This is something new for me. The  looks like the other gazillion posts on the blog regarding initial production data, but this one is clearly different. If you are at all interested in the Bakken, spend some time on this one.

Also, please help me out if I've made obvious errors. Of if you see something I missed. Or if I'm seeing something that doesn't exist, let me know.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I will correct them when found. The errors will not detract from the overall "picture" of this incredible pad.

Disclaimer: when I first started the post, I said that the production data for #30135 was most likely in error at the NDIC site. Once I completed production data for all the wells on the pad -- maybe I was really, really, really wrong.

Note: there are six wells / six file numbers identified on the pad, but there are seven horizontals clearly identified on the NDIC map; that hasn't been sorted out yet.

Note: this is something I had not seen before or if I had, I have missed it, or I did not miss it but did not pay attention to it. Whatever. But now I know I will watch for it. These wells are in the Antelope oil field, targeting the SANISH POOL. Some of these wells target the middle Bakken, some the first bench of the Three Forks and get this, one targets the second bench of the Three Forks. 
 
**************************************** 

Based on a sixth sense that sometimes helps me with the blog, my hunch -- this is an error and will eventually be corrected. Until then, we can dream, can't we (see disclaimer above):
  • 30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect; 111,373 mcf = 18,556 boe + 73,138 bo = 91,693 boe in one full month, clearly a Bakken record, and clearly an error that will be corrected
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2018317313873190172411113731878384433
SANISH12-2017122595725025036007033113

The geologist's report is not yet scanned into the file report.

API: 33-053-06522.  FracFocus
  • fracked 10/21/2017 - 11/18/2017
  • 15,987,691 gallons of water = 133,417,281 lbs of water
  • water: 89.74% of total mass of injection fluid
  • sand: 9.9962% of total mass of injection fluid
  • 133,417,281 is 89.74% of what
  • 133,417,281 = 0.8974 x ?
  • 133,417,281 / 0.8974 = 148,670,918 lbs of injection fluid
  • 0.09962 x 148,670,918 = 14,810,597 lbs of sand
  • since my estimates usually come in low, this frack probably used 16 million lbs or more of sand (a huge frack) -- corresponds with the fracks for the wells on the same pad
The graphics (see also this post):





I said that the initial data presented for #30135 has to be in error, but look at the production data for the other five wells on the same pad:
  • 33290, 4,204, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 11.6 million lbs, t12/17; cum 94K 1/18;
  • 30133, 4,855, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages, 12 million lbs, t12/17; cum 96K 1/18;
  • 30488, 4,144, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish 36 stages, 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum 89K 1/18;
  • 30131, 2,420, MRO, Blue Creek USA 14-22TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks B2, 39 stages; 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 15K 1/18;
  • 30135, see above;
  • 30134, 3,503, MRO, Rough Coulee USA 24-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 48 stages, 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 73K 1/18;
****************************************

30134:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2018316792067279318641252102167395889
SANISH12-201715493347560914508589


30131:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2018231489814719477724077368618732

30488:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2018316281263010493351000831794475102
SANISH12-2017132656025606042525039563


30133:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-201831462194746139112753541404256119
SANISH12-2017175004948251487087397081788


33290:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2018315528755549304601010375113943594
SANISH12-20171639157385021357269785065414

Three New Permits; Six DUCs Completed -- March 27, 2018 -- This Page Still Being Updated

API crude oil inventory data:
  • forecast: a build of 1.0 million bbls
  • actual: a build of 5.321 million bbls 
  • WTI after the announcement: nearly unchanged at $65.25
TSLA: down 8%, dropping $25 during normal business hours; down another dollar+ after hours trading. Moody's cut ratings from B2 to B3.
The impetus for the cut in rating is the company’s slipping production rates for its newer “Model 3” sedan, something that has been worrying multiple parties of late, as Barron's Ben Levisohn wrote earlier today. 
As Moody's put it: Tesla's ratings reflect the significant shortfall in the production rate of the company's Model 3 electric vehicle. The firm writes that it’s conceivable the company may have to do a large capital raise: The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity short-fall.
***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$65.253/27/201803/27/201703/27/201603/27/201503/27/2014
Active Rigs59493297196

Three new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
    Field: Banks (McKenzie)
    Comments: CLR has permits for a 3-well Pasadena pad in SWSW 11-152-99, Banks oil field
Eleven permits renewed:
  • WPX (4): four Charles Blackhawk permits, all in Dunn County
  • Thunderbird Resources (3): three Fleck permits in McKenzie County
  • NP Resources (2): two Roosevelt permits in Billings County
  • Petro Harvester (2): two RNL1 permits in Burke County
Two permits canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt: two Moberg permits in Burke County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect
  • 31610, 349, BR, He 5-8-20UTFH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
  • 31611, 467, BR, He 4-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
  • 31613, 450, BR, He 2-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
  • 32978, 10, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --
  • 33337, 56, BR, Dodge 2A TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --
Three permits reinstated:
  • Slawson: three Hunter permits in Mountrail County

Garden State (New Jersey) NG Pipeline Expansion Program -- Williams -- Zacks Update -- March 27, 2018

Link here.
  • phase 2
  • expansion of the Transco pipeline system
  • intended to bring additional natural gas to New Jersey Natural Gas
  • phase 1 was commissioned September, 2017
  • beginning point: Transco's Zone 6 Stations 210 Pooling Point in Mercer County, NJ (county seat: Trenton); a small county abutting Burlington County on the northwest (of Burlington County)
  • new connection: Trenton Woodbury Lateral in Burlington County, NJ (2nd largest county in NJ)
  • in addition to pipe, new compressor station and additional infrastructure
  • New Jersey Natural Gas: services over a half million customer in six New Jersey counties
  • Transco: wholly owned by Williams Partners
  • the nation's largest-volume and fastest-growing interstate natural gas pipeline system
  • mainline extends from south Texas to NYC
  • Williams Partners CAPEX in 2018: $2.7 billion
  • Trancso growth project: $1.7 billion
Meanwhile, somewhere in New Jersey, someone is building a 2.5 MW wind tower. If you do a google search you should be able to find an article on some green energy website.

CLR Bakken EURs Have Gone From 430 MBOE (2011) To 1,100 MBOE In Seven Years; CWC Have Decreased -- March 27, 2018

March 27, 2018: CLR presentation --
  • 2011: 430 mboe
  • 2014: 603 mboe
  • 2015: 800 mboe
  • 1H17: 980 mboe
  • 2018: 1,100 mboe; payout period down to ten months
(1100 - 430)/430 = 156%.
But 1.56 * 430 = 670
2 * 430 = 860
3* 430 = 1290

***************************
Notes for the Oldest Granddaughter


Other books on the RMS Titanic:
  • Titanic: A Fresh Look at the Evidence by a Former Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, John Lang, c. 2012
  • appears to be perhaps the best of the lot noted on this page
  • a very, very comprehensive coverage of the ship and the event
  • biggest failure: fails to discuss bad steel/bad rivets even though there was an incredibly good book on this very issue published four years earlier
  • What Really Sank the Titanic: New Forensic Discoveries, Jennifer Hooper McCarty & Tim Foecke, c. 2008
    • Bad steel, bad rivets
  • A Night to Remember, Walter Lord, c. 1955
In 1898 a struggling author named Morgan Robertson concocted a novel about a fabulous Atlantic liner, far larger than any that had ever been built. Robertson loaded his ship with rich and complacent people and then wrecked it one cold April night on an iceberg. This somehow showed the futility of everything, and in fact, the book was called Futility when it appeared that year, published by the firm of M. F. Mansfield.
Fourteen years later a British shipping company named the White Star Line built a steamer remarkably like the one in Robertson's novel. The new liner was 66,000 tons displacement; Robertson's was 70,000 tons. The real ship was 882.5 feet long; the fictional one was 800 feet. Both vessels were triple screw and could make 24 - 25 knots. Both could carry about 3,000 people, and both had enough lifeboats for only a fraction of this number. But, then, this didn't seem to matter because both were labeled "unsinkable." 
On April 10, 1912, the real ship left Southampton on her maiden voyage to New York. Her cargo included a priceless copy of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam and a list of passengers collectively worth $250 million dollars. On her way over she too struck an iceberg and went down on a cold April night.
Robertson called his ship the Titan; the White Star Line called its ship the Titanic. This is the story of her last night.
Today: Titanic Tragedy: A New Look at the Lost Liner, John Maxtone-Graham, c. 2011

[Note: I watched the entirety of A Night To Remember, last night on TCM. I was riveted by the move. From wiki:
British docudrama based on the eponymous book by Walter Lord starring Kenneth More as the ship's Second Officer Charles Lightoller.
Regarded as one of the most historically accurate Titanic disaster films, with the exception of not featuring the ship breaking in half.
(There was still doubt about the fact she split in two when the book and film were produced. The accepted view at the time and the result of the inquires was that she sank intact; it was only confirmed that she split after the wreck was found in 1985.) Some effects scenes were 'borrowed' from the 1943 German film.
The author:
  • maritime historian
  • a Scottish-American New Yorker
  • has written dozens of books about North Atlantic liners
Chapter 1: The Wireless Miracle
  • it begins: "Surviving passengers and crew of Titanic owed their lives to two giants of transatlantic innovation, Samuel Morse and Guglielmo Marconi. Their combined achievements from opposite sides of the ocean established an incredible communication linkage, connecting continents, countries, and ships. Not surprisingly, their names have entered the language; there is the verb coinage to Morse and millions of Marconigrams have been dispatched and delivered. Hence they become obligatory subjects of this opening chapter."
  • Samuel Finely Breese Morse, b. 27 April 1791, Charestown, MA
  • graduated from Yale, Phi Beta Kappa, 1810 at the age 19
  • started out in life as a painter; former president John Adams sat for him, as did Marquis de Lafayette and several members of Congress
Chapter 2: Glittering Night

Chapter 3: Hornblow at Queen's Island

Chapter 4: The Ocean Dock 

Chapter 5: Into the Boats

Chapter 6: Survival Sagas

Chpater 7: "Safe Carpathia"
  • Joseph Boxhall: fourth officer of the Titanic; lifeboat survivor
  • Captain Arthur Rosron: master of Carpathia
  • Carpathia
  • alternated immigrant runs from Fiume and Naples to New York
  • upgraded for transatlantic service
  • sailing out of Liverpool
  • 100 first class, 200 second class, an astonishing 2,250 in third class
  • five passenger levels: promenade, saloon, shelter, upper, and main decks
  • first class: promenade and saloon decks
  • second class: shelter dek
  • third class: forward ends of the two lowest decks
  • April 11, 1912: spring cruise, NYC to the Mediterranean
  • 120 (1st class); 50 (2nd class); 565 in 3rd class
  • 300 crew
  • total: 1,035 souls on board
  • 12:25 a.m. the Morse signal from the sinking ship (the CQD)
  • In 1904, the Marconi company suggested the use of "CQD" for a distress signal. Although generally accepted to mean, "Come Quick Danger," that is not the case. It is a general call, "CQ," followed by "D," meaning distress. A strict interpretation would be "All stations, Distress."
  • a 57-mile dash on a new course -- North 57 West toward the stricken Titanic
  • the race would consume 3.5 hours
  • shortly after 2:00 a.m. the White Star vessel's radio ceased transmitting, Carpathia was still 34 miles away
  • shortly after 4:00 a.m. and as dawn broke, the Carpathia began picking up survivors
  • it would take more than four hours to bring Titanic's 703 survivors and 5 dead aboard
  • Carpathia surrounded by icebergs
  • again, the Californian was incredibly "out of the loop"; it arrived on scene having no idea what was happening
  • first class passengers on Carpathia refused to be bothered by all this
  • no other vessel picked up anyone
  • when Carpathia arrived NYC Pier 54, the most celebrated visitor: Guglielmo Marconi; the price of his company's stock had quadrupled since the news broke but he did not want to be perceived as profiting from disaster; yet at the same time, he was furious and mystified by inbound Carpathia's silence (the captain did not want a "circus" at NYC pier)
  • 210 Titanic officers and crew survived; some rescued from freezing water (not in lifeboats)
  • epilogue: Carpathia came to an end on 17 July 1918 when, like so many unsung wartime carriers, in a sixteen-ship convoy, was struck by two torpedoes 120 miles west of Fastnet
  • in March 1918, Captain Arthur Rostron was the master of the troopship Mauretania 
Chapter 8: Crew Memoria

Chapter 9: Walter at Play

CLR EUR Type Curves Up To 1.1 Million BOE In The Bakken -- March 27, 2018

I've been waiting for this presentation for quite some time with all the recent activity in the Bakken -- CLR's most recent presentation, link here. Quickly, because I have more important things to do, the things that caught my attention that are new:
  • 34 slides
  • 2018: a breakout year for CLR
  • 100% funded from internal cash flow
    • $2 billion for D&C
    • 78% of D&C targeting the Bakken and the Springer (SCOOP)
  • targeting 17% to 24% YoY production growth; targeting annual 285K to 300K boe per day
  • up to $1 billion (rounded) in free cash flow with $60 WTI and $3 Henry Hub
  • continue to reduce debt
    • free cash flow to reduce debt
    • additional non-core asset divestitures
  • net reservoir acres / hbp
    • Bakken: 802,000 net acres / 90%
    • STACK: 409,500 net acres (I did not realize it was this much, compared to the Bakken) / 60%
    • SCOOP: 724,000 (ditto) / 60%
  • production
    • north (North Dakota): 175,563 boepd
    • south (Oklahoma): 111,422 boepd
  • Bakken continues to deliver record results (well / 30-day avg boepd / % oil / formation)
    • Tarentaise Federal 1-19H (2,126 / 79% / MB)
    • Tarentaise Federal 3-19H (2,074 / 805 / MB)
    • Tarentaise Federal 5-19H (2,034 / 79% / MB)
    • Tarentaise Federal 12-19H2 (1,848 / 79% / TF2)
    • Holstein Federal 8-25H (2,015 / 83% / MB)
    • Wiley 7-25H (1,966 / 76% / MB)
    • Akron Federal 7-27H (1,853 / 79% / MB)
    • Radermecher 2-22H1 (1,833 / 79% / TF1)
    • Monroe 7-2H (2,055 / 80% / MB)
    • Monroe 6-2H  (2,869 / 79% /  MB)
  • EUR type curves: 1.1 million boe
    • 134 optimized completions
    • 125% ROR
    • PV-10 up 47% per well compared to previous type curve
  • interesting term on slide 16: "children wells" / "parent well"-- we've blogged about that only once or twice in the past; a reader working for HAL alerted me to that "new term" maybe a year or so ago
    • children wells are producing 20% higher than parent wells (we've seen something similar in the Bakken); 50% reduction in drill time; 20% reduction in CWC
  • history of EUR type curves:
    • 2011: 430 mboe
    • 2014: 603 mboe
    • 2015: 800 mboe
    • 1H17: 980 mboe
    • 2018: 1,100 mboe; payout period down to ten months 
************************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

Close Encounters With Humankind: A Paleoanthropolgist Investigates Our Evolving Species
San-Hee Lee with Shin-Young Yoon
c. 2015

Chapter 1: Are We Cannibals
  • there may be cannibalistic behavior, but there are no cannibals
  • Fore, Australia, in the 1950s
  • the spread of an unknown disease
  • tremors and convulsions: kuru -- "shaking" in the indigenous language
  • also called "laughing disease" because patients would fall into fits of nonstop laughter
  • a very long incubation period: normally five to 20 years
  • the last reported person to have the disease died in 2005, but he was infected in the 1960s
  • after the incubation period, the patient usually dies within a year of the first symptoms
  • Daniel Gajdusek: documented the existence of a prion disease for the first time
  • another prion-related disease: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease
  • Gajdusek: Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1976
  • currently, scientists hypothesize that the kuru epidemic started with the funerary rituals for one person who must have had kuru, which was endemic to the population
Chapter 2: The Birth of Fatherhood
  • there is no question that the human family is unique: human families involve adult men
  • "couvade syndrome": sympathetic pregnancy and labor experience among (prospective) fathers
Chapter 3: Who Were the First Hominin Ancestors?
  • Propconsul  and Ramapithecus: first candidates; subsequently, the DNA said "no"
  • Australopithecus africanus: DNA, yes, but fossil record dated A. africanus to only 2 - 3 million years ago; too recent
  • then, Mary Leakey and Donald Johanson: A. afarensis found to be 3 - 3.5 million years old; "Lucy"
    • walked upright before developing an enlarged brain
    • "Lucy" resulted in a paradigmatic shift
  • bipedalism, not enlarged brains, would be the defining characteristic for an ancestral human
  • mid-1990s: several ancestral hominins much older than A. afarensis; also bipedal
    • Australopithecus anamensis, 3.9 - 4.2 million years ago
  • heated debate whether to add a third candidate, A Anamensis to A. afarensis and A. africanus
  • it's possible A. anamensis might simply be another A. afarensis
  • issue becomes more complicated in the early 2000s with three new candidates for "earliest ancestor"
  • 1999: two new candidates
    • Sahelanthropus tchadensis, discovered in Toumai, Chad (central Africa); 6 - 7 million years go; too little fossil to be more sure
    • Orrorin guenensis (no doubt named after a fossil of a senator in the US Senate, LOL), Tugen Hills, Kenya, East Africa; also 6 - 7 million years ago; femur shows traits of bipedalism
  • most recent addition: Ardipithecus ramidus, discovered in Aramis, Ethiopia; 4.4 million yeas ago
  • another reversal: bipedalism in doubt
  • the problem: A. ramidus may have been a tree-climber
  • one possibility: the three candidates may be members of the various ape lineages that roamed before hominins began, instead of being the earliest member of the hominin lineage
Chapter 4: Big-Brained Babies Give Moms Big Grief
  • childbirth in humans cannot (as a rule) be done alone: "social" childbirth
  • origin of "social" childbirth goes back at least 50,000 years; CT scan of Neanderthal newborn
Chapter 5: Meat Lovers R Us
  • first source of "meat" for hominins -- bones
Chapter 6: Got Milk?
  • co-evolution of humans and cows
  • in the last 10,000 years, humans evolved the ability to drink milk into adulthood from a series of genetic mutations in the lactase gene
  • but also, milk itself has changed; the genetic makeup of the cows that produce milk has changed through domestication
  • genetics and anthropology have shown that humans have continued to evolve recently, at an even faster rate than we did over the previous 5 million years (author will come back to this later)
Chapter 7: A Gene for Snow White
  • lighter skin among humans
Chapter 8: Granny Is an Artist
  • when did longevity begin? with sapiens or with erectus
  • longevity and the blossoming of art
Chapter 9: Did Farming Bring Prosperity

Chapter 10: Peking Man and the Yakuza
  • yakuza: the notorious crime organization of Japan
  • Peking Man was discovered in Zhoukoudian, China, in the 1920s
  • fossils vanished at harbor of Beijing, 1941, in preparation for transportation to the US; last time they were ever to be seen
  • now, ten years earlier, the author was told a yakuza rite would include Peking Man fossils
  • if legitimate --- wow!
  • author declined the invitation -- wow, even sadder (too dangerous to accept)
  • the Peking Man fossils have never been rediscovered
  • the molds still exist
  • argument that Peking man is not Homo erectus
Chapter 11: Asia Challenges Africa's Stronghold on the Birthplace of Humanity
  • the Dmanisi fossils
Chapter 12: Cooperation Connects You and Me
  • is helping others written in our DNA?
  • 1.8 million years of altruism
Chapter 13: King Kong
  • was King Kong real? Gigantopithecus
Chapter 14: Breaking Back

Chapter 15: In Search of the Most Humanlike Face
  • Homo rudolfensis
  • what makes a face "humanlike" anyway 
  • KNM-EM 62000: discovered in Koobi Fora, a renowned paleo-anthropological site in northern Kenyz
  • the most famous family in the field of anthropology: the Leakeys
Chapter 16: Our Changing Brains
  • adult brains and child brains are different
  • growth -- not physical size but the number of synapses
  • big brains need lean faces
  • "...for the skull to get bigger, the muscles holding down the bones that make up the skull have to become smaller first, to allow the skull to grow unencumbered. The biggest muscle connected to the skull is the masticatory (chewing) muscle. In other words, for the brain to get bigger, the masticatory muscles have to get smaller. Interestingly, a paper published in 2004 featured an experiment showing that a mutation in a gene (MYH16) to make the chewing muscle small led to an enormously big skull in mice, making this hypothesis more plausible."
  • there are indications that in the last 50,000 years, human brains might actually be getting smaller; if true, no one knows why, but that's where research is headed
Chapter 17: You Are a Neanderthal!

Chapter 18: The Molecular Clock Does Not Keep Time
  • come back to this chapter later
Chapter 19: Denisovans: The Asian Neanderthals
  • come back to this chapter later
Chapter 20: Hobbits

Chapter 21: Seven Billion Humans, One Single Race?
  • it is not clear when and where the concept of race originated
  • if a race is not like a biological species, researchers keen on proving that race exist as a natural category might then consider subspecies, a subclassification within the same species. A subspecies is a population that has been isolated to the point that it is on a trajectory to become a different species if the isolation continues. Subspecies are sometimes defines as sharing less than 85% of their genes with the other subpopulations of their species designation (don't humans - chimps share 99% of their genetic material?), in order to be considered on their way to becoming a different species.
  • key: prolonged isolation
Chapter 22: Are Humans Still Evolving?
  • wisdom teeth

The Market And Energy Page, T+27 -- March 27, 2018

After this post, I'm outta here, for an hour or so. Good luck to everyone.

Chart of the day:




Fake news, even in the WSJ. This is really, really cool. During the Bakken boom, back in 2007 - 2012, "emigres" from three or four states dominated the number of new folks coming to western North Dakota looking for jobs. Idaho was among the top five out-of-state license plates seen in those days. Idaho was in a severe recession.
Now? From The Wall Street Journal today: incomes in Idaho rising at fastest rate in the nation. Why? Let's see: nope, the article was unhelpful. The writer is trying to make a "worker shortage - wage inflation" story in Idaho "work" for the nation as a whole. Nonsense. Except perhaps on the margins.

Using the same model, my hunch is that globally, incomes in Bangladesh are also rising at the fast rate.
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@TeslaCharts: OMFG. Boom.

This is quite incredible. I have not seen something that has completely "shocked" the business world tweets like what is happening now over at twitter -- maybe like forever.

If you understand how Twitter works, @TeslaCharts is a no-brainer "site" to follow. [Also, Scott Adams, but that's another story. I digress.]

The news that is shaking "business world twitter" accounts today -- Waymo and Jaguar's self-driving I-PACE just announced a partnership



Wow, anyone following Waymo (just off the radar scope for most folks) and Jaguar's I-PACE (off everyone's radar scope) -- this story is incredible.

This will knock TSLA hard. Let's see what TSLA is doing. Before we look, remember, the market went up 700 points yesterday and up another 100 points today. Okay, here we go, TSLA (at 10:07 a.m. Central Time, just minutes after the Waymo - Jaguar pact was announced) is trading down $7.08, or down 2.33%. It's now well below its floor ($300). [Later: TSLA is down over $12 -- 11:16 a.m. Central Time.] [Later, 1:32 p.m. Central Time: inexplicably the market plummets, goes negative; TSLA shares down almost $20.]

Another Tesla fatality; this one in California, March 23, 2018.




Remember, a week ago, every talking head (except the moderator) was bullish on Tesla (posted previously).

Top story driving the drop in TSLA shares? Who knows? But Zacks reported one hour ago (something twitter reported yesterday) that Elon Musk has alerted investors that Tesla is "slowing" deliveries to Norway, on purpose.
According to CNBC, Tesla, Inc.’s CEO Elon Musk has asked his team in Norway to slow down deliveries of electric cars there due to issues pertaining to the local manufacturing supply chain. Notably, the electric vehicle maker is experiencing a lack of giant trucks to carry its vehicles safely around Norway. A truck, which was carrying Tesla Model S vehicles, was recently embroiled in an accident.
Two Tesla vehicles were crushed by the upper deck of the truck. Musk said, “I have just asked our team to slow down deliveries. It is clear that we are exceeding the local logistics capacity due to batch build and delivery. Customer happiness & safety matter more than a few extra cars this quarter.
The Waymo-Jaguar story certainly did not help.

Elon got his $3 billion bonus just in time.

Reflections on a short life.

Reflections Of My Life, The Marmalade

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The Equity Market

A dead cat bounce?

Q: When will we know?

A: Friday, March 30, 2018. 10:30 a.m. Central Time.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

This Story Won't Quit -- March 27, 2018

This is the one common theme coming out of western Canada. Everyone's writing about it. And it's not going to change very soon.

Trudeau's response: "I look up as I walk so the tears won't fall."

The story from Zacks: dearth of pipeline capacity plagues Canadian oil producers.
The new supply, which has arrived in the market from the start up of new oil sands, is facing transportation issues as Keystone pipeline lowered shipments in November 2017, thanks to a spill.
This has pushed the heavy Canadian crude prices to trade close to the largest discount to U.S. benchmark oil futures in more than four years [around $30 -- ouch]. Other existing pipelines are fully committed, while exporters shipping crude using rail have faced hindrances amid excess grain that is to be transported.

The heavy discount between Canadian crude prices and futures has forced the oil sands players to shut their plants this month for maintenance. For instance, Canadian Natural Resources’ Peace River oil sands site is currently under maintenance. Moreover, it has also reduced its pace of the ramp up and completion of some wells.

Per industry researcher Genscape Inc., Western Canadian crude production was more than the pipeline capacity to transfer it to markets by 87,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December 2017. This is expected to grow to 338,000 bpd by the end of 2018.
Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Looking for love in all the wrong places. Prince Salman wants "10 - 20 year alliance with Russia." Like Stormy Daniels, does anyone really care?



Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places, Johnny Lee
API crude oil inventory data:
  • forecast: a build of 1.0 million bbls
  • actual: a build of 5.321 million bbls 
  • WTI after the announcement: nearly unchanged at $65.25
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LNG exports: nice data at this Platts article.

Apple: educators' conference today -- presentation not being streamed (standard protocol for these "educators' conferences). Updates at Macrumors. Folks expecting some lower-priced tablets and laptops for schools to compete with Google Chrome.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.103/27/201803/27/201703/27/201603/27/201503/27/2014
Active Rigs59493297196

RBN Energy: LNG and pipeline reversals turn Louisiana gas market upside down, part 3.

After 30+ Years Of Accumulating Shares In The Seven Sisters, This Story Makes My Heart Skip A Beat -- March 27, 2018

From Bloomberg via Rigzone: oil's seven sisters enter a "golden age." -- Goldman Sachs.
The world’s largest oil companies have survived a life-changing crisis, and are now poised to reap the rewards, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
Big Oil is in a sweet spot with rising oil prices and low operating costs, leaving them with the biggest cash-flow growth in two decades and boosting earnings, Goldman said in a report Monday. That will increase their attraction for investors after years of elevated spending followed by crude’s slump sent their weighting in global equity indexes to a 50-year low, according to the bank.
“We see this as the start of a new golden age for Big Oil’s reborn Seven Sisters,” said analysts led by Michele Della Vigna, referring to the seven largest non-state oil companies. It is “also a favorable environment for returns in the commodity.”
Crude’s slump since the middle of 2014 wiped out some smaller companies and changed the way the biggest operate as they continue to drive down costs in an attempt to survive. A downturn is typically followed by a period of relative plenty as the cost of getting new barrels out of the ground takes time to catch up with the crude price, widening profit margins.
The majors are leading the pack. While crude’s collapse pushed the weight of oil companies in equity indexes to about 5 percent, less than half their normal level, Big Oil is now in a position to regain its standing. The slump culled smaller drillers and has left the larger ones with the opportunity to take more market share.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA and BP Plc are among the majors that reported the highest earnings in years last quarter. Some even started share buybacks and others are promising higher dividends.
Much, much more at the link.

Tomorrow, we should expect a story from Goldman Sachs telling us that the global glut of oil will lead to a plunge in the price of Brent and WTI, leading to the imminent bankruptcy of most of the major oil companies. LOL.