Sunday, March 25, 2018

Early Production Numbers For The Oasis Patsy Wells In Siverston Oil Field -- March 25, 2018

This post will not be updated. The Patsy wells are tracked elsewhere.

It appears the Patsy wells have been fracked and soon to be reported.

The Patsy wells:
  • 32949, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 3XT, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 32948, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 2BX, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33078, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33077, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 5T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33076, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 4B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33049, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 13B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33048, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33047, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 11B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33041, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33040, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 9T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33039, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33038, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 7T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 29167, dry, Oasis, Patsy Pow 5198 33-5, Siverston, 
  • 20689, 1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Patsy 5-8HTF, Siverston, Three Forks Third Bench, 25 stages, 2.8 million lbs , t11/12; cum 157K 1/18; went off-line as of 9/17, suggesting that rest of wells are being completed; back on-line as of 12/17;
 *************************************
Early Production Numbers

32949, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 3XT, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181115120615
12-20172390039554
11-201727856812

 32948, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 2BX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181651431955
12-20172300535888

33078, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181881015985
12-20172176416404

 33077, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 5T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201840273775
12-2017103649553

 33076, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 4B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181341414077
12-20173221220254

33049, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 13B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182084019137

33048, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181114231521

33047, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 11B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201877396812

 33041, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201886448653

33040, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 9T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181592117453
12-201780326922

 33039, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181983617167
12-20171911218592

33038, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 7T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201846853595
12-201737583400

A New Well Has Been Added To "Monster Wells" -- March 25, 2018

This well has just been added to "Monster Wells, Generation 3."
  • 19296, 2,388, SHD, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, TF Bench 1, 62 stages, 15 million lbs, t3/15; cum 622K 1/18;
Production data for this well at this link.

600K+ in less than three years.

Tesla -- March 25, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

New Posts

March 27, 2017, 12:01 a.m.:I think a lot of folks agree that "Matt Drudge" of the "Drudge Report" has a pretty good "political" feel. What gets posted, where it's posted (on the Drudge Report page), and most importantly how long it stays on the Drudge page correlates directly with the "importance" of the story and whether the story "will have legs."

Some news items stay on his page for two, three, or even four days.

The CBS "60 Minutes" Stormy Daniels interview was linked Sunday night and into Monday morning, with the banner suggesting this was the highest '60 Minutes" rating in its history. Interestingly, it was not reported very much elsewhere (in other media) throughout the day.

And now, tonight, before midnight, less than 30 hours later, this huge, huge, huge story is no longer linked at the Drudge Report. It's not even moved to the body of the Drudge Report with the hundred-other links, some of which have now been there longer than the Stormy Daniels story.

if Drudge is "right" on this one, this story -- the Stormy Daniels story -- has no legs.
 
Original Post
 
The screenshot via twitter; the link is here for the article itself.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. I am posting this to provide an example of succinctness in a report.

*******************************
The Apple Page

I don't know if I've blogged anything along this line or not. Don't remember. But this should not be a bit surprising to anyone who actually knows something about Apple.

From Macrumors:
Apple's services revenue is growing at a rapid pace and is on track to be the company's primary revenue driver in the future, according to a note Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty shared with investors this morning.

Huberty believes that over the course of the next five years, services revenue growth will contribute more than 50 percent of Apple's total revenue growth. The iPhone, meanwhile, will make up just 22 percent of revenue growth during the same time period, despite the fact that it's contributed 86 percent of Apple's revenue growth over the past five years.
Of course, this begs some obvious questions. 

Early Production Numbers For CLR's Tarentaise Wells That Will Come Off Confidential List This Week -- March 25, 2018

This page will not be updated; the CLR Tarentaise wells are tracked at another post. But the Tarentaise wells are starting to come off the confidential list and appear to be quite exciting.  Here are some early production numbers:

Six-well pad sited in 19-153-94 (SWSW), sited north to south:
  • 32578, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 6-19H1, Elm Tree, no production data;
  • 32577, 2,051, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 5-19H, Elm Tree, 61 stages; 14.8 million lbs; t11/17; cum 111K 1/18; see below;
  • 32576, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 4-19H2, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32575, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 3-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32574, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 2-19H1, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32573, SI/NC, , Tarentaise Federal 1-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
Seven-well pad sited in 19-153-94 (SWNW), sited north to south:
  • 32588, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 13-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32587, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 12-19H2, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32586, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 11-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32585, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 10-19H1, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32584, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 9-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
  • 32583, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 8-19H2, Elm Tree, producing, see below; 32582, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 7-19H, Elm Tree, producing, see below;
 ***********************************
 The seven-well pad:


32588, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 13-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20183374559922
12-20173880457664
11-20171080714966
10-201759480

32587, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 12-19H2, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182761247480
12-20174285969712
11-20171381420257
10-201723950

32586, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 11-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20184332681611
12-20175042085139
11-20173210046811
10-201733230

32585, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 10-19H1, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181318822293
12-20172695344422
11-20172762142019
10-201725600

32584, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 9-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20183885670051
12-20174497073722
11-20173062943314
10-201720670

32583, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 8-19H2, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181108718774
12-20171236719879
11-20172706945545
10-20178170

32582, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 7-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20183397661444
12-20173719761026
11-20172605137053
10-2017770
9-201711950
 
**********************************

 The six-well pad:


 32577:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2018312698227013138505083549842938
BAKKEN12-20173135963360362066663188606242507
BAKKEN11-20173046955467033192378193733284781


 32576, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 4-19H2, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182128436850
12-20172634743830
11-20172548038729
10-2017672116048

 32575, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 3-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182596546342
12-20173363354524
11-20174124563321
10-20171365217543
9-20177090

 32574, SI/NC, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 2-19H1, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182512047692
12-20172923249985
11-20172954845297
10-2017834811342
9-20173890

 32573, SI/NC, , Tarentaise Federal 1-19H, Elm Tree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20183278959960
12-20174412675108
11-20174684373559
10-20171142515934
9-20177200

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 15, 2018; CLR Will Report Some Huge Tarentaise Federal Wells In Elm Tree

Thursday, March 29, 2018:33487, 1,583, Enerplus, Whooping 150-94-33C-28H-TF2, Spotted Horn, Three Forks, 40 stages; 9.8 million lbs, mesh, t10/17; cum 121K 1/18; 
33486, 1,667, Enerplus, Crane 150-94-33C-28H, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 19.3 million lbs, mesh; t10/17; cum 184K 1/18;
32582, 1,182, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 7-19H, Elm Tree, 61 stages; 10.1 million lbs, mesh/large, 90K; t11/17; cum 132K 1/18;
30151, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data;

Wednesday, March 28, 2018:
33882, 1,788, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-13H, Keene, 24K over 17 days; t1/18; cum 24K 1/18;
32575, 2,414, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 3-19H, Elm Tree; 61 stages; 14.8 million lbs; 41K in first full month; t10/17; cum 115K 1/18;
30150, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-6, Blue Buttes,

Tuesday, March 27, 2018:
33883, 1,982, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-12H, Keene, 62 stages; 12 million lbs, 21K; t1/18; cum 22K after 19 days;
32574, 1,176, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 2-19H1, Elm Tree, 62 stages; 15.2 million lbs, mesh/large; 108K; t10/17; cum 93K 1/8;
32573, 2,010, CLR Tarentaise Federal 1-19H,  Elm Tree, 61 stages; 14.2 million lbs, mesh/large, 140K; t9/17; cum 136K 1/18;
31129, SI/NC, Enerplus, Siamese 148-93-31D-30H, 
30149, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-4, 

Monday, March 26, 2018:
33884, 2,436, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-4H, Keene, 62 stages; 12 million lbs, huge well, 35K in first month of reporting; (#18012 off line; a huge well); t1/18; cum 34K after 21 days;
32995, 2,341, Whiting, Hellandsaas 44-8-1H, Banks, 30 stages; 6.2 million lbs, medium/small; a very, very nice well; 80K+ in first four full months; (#19533 with nice jump in production); t10/17; cum 90K 1/18;
32994, conf, Whiting, Hellandsaas 44-8-2H, Banks, a very, very nice well; 80K+ in first four months (#19533 with nice jump in production)
30148, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-3, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Sunday, March 25, 2018:
33966, 960, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-34-27H, Antelope Creek, a very nice well; t1/18; cum 36K 1/18;
33885, 2,011, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-11H, Keene, 62 stages; 11.8 million lbs, a nice well; (#18012 off line; a huge well); t1/18; cum 29K over 21 days;
30147, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-2, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Saturday, March 24, 2018
:
31130, SI/NC, Enerplus, Persian 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek,

The CLR Hendrickson Wells Have Been Updated -- March 25, 2018

Random look at the huge jump in production in one of the CLR Hendrickson wells. The well:
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 680K 1/18; off-line as of 2/17 as more Hendrickson wells are completed; came back on-line 4/17; huge jump in production; FracFocus -- no evidence of re-frac; no sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked but the huge jump in production suggests that it must have been re-fracked
BAKKEN8-20173118525189421392628888250863567
BAKKEN7-20173112330121681338219280176501430
BAKKEN6-2017301693616845174952589524705950
BAKKEN5-201731221862233822567391032588512971
BAKKEN4-20172016275158402838122993162266611
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-201626413165200
BAKKEN10-201618227420442501971183842
BAKKEN9-201624217922102433522308569

The Hendrickson wells are tracked here. Production data has been updated; an updated graphic has been posted.

Random Case Study Of WPX Wells In Reunion Oil Field -- March 26, 2018

Updates

November 15, 2018: production update for #19246:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201830339933851458481142860
BAKKEN8-201831360435861642502144640
BAKKEN7-201831433944062072558534621262
BAKKEN6-201828422842203316544122042423
BAKKEN5-201827110211233591419483437
BAKKEN4-20183013271344534171211880
BAKKEN3-201831167915586542161861498
BAKKEN2-2018412314030624180
BAKKEN1-2018110223100
BAKKEN12-201782993421796244570
BAKKEN11-20173011451105280203416570
BAKKEN10-20173115271558382202714650
 
Original Post
 
Incredibly nice well comes off line:
  • 19246, 1,425, WPX, Wells 32-29H, Reunion Bay, t3/11; cum 546K 1/18; 
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2018110223100
BAKKEN12-201782993421796244570
BAKKEN11-20173011451105280203416570
BAKKEN10-20173115271558382202714650
BAKKEN9-2017281343131649217291051164
BAKKEN8-2017312471250543831802384137
BAKKEN7-2017312986298946538432747379
BAKKEN6-2017303017297852438832318857
BAKKEN5-2017313474348661944702787914

For wells like this -- 3K/month after seven (7) years of production and a cumulative of over one-half million bbls of oil -- and then taken off-line -- one suspects some activity in the area -- 

The graphic:




From the graphic: two things to key in on.

First, #28590:
  • 28590, 1,258, WPX. Victor Elk 32-29HB, Reunion Bay, t1/15; cum 313K 1/18; look at the jump in production 1/18; FracFocus does not show any re-frack but that could be due to the fact that paperwork not yet received; no sundry form to suggest any plan to re-frack (this well will be interesting to follow -- to see if re-fracked or not); it was recently off-line for all of 22 days; look at recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2018271659916784756418375129603396
BAKKEN12-2017121399135311121509801406
BAKKEN11-201730485449492194537331351334
BAKKEN10-201722350932741701388419261241
BAKKEN9-201730465548142603515315272741
BAKKEN8-20173148574719290553773705754
BAKKEN7-20173149835122273455163761824
BAKKEN6-201730436243132576483021251854
BAKKEN5-20171829583028215432751757877
BAKKEN4-201730476147053333527129101492
BAKKEN3-20173147985032368453113590810
BAKKEN2-20172859925927549866325245386

The second thing to key in on: the three wells on confidential status -- #32671, #32672, #32673. All three have been fracked based on production data on the confidential scout tickets:
  • 32671, 10K produced after well completed; number of days of production not known;
  • 32672, 18K produced after well completed; number of days of production not known;
  • 32673, 19K produced after well completed; number of days of production not known;
These are going to be very nice wells. My hunch: 150K+ in first six months.

Now, let's see if FracFocus has anything: yes, they have all been fracked, see dates of frack below --
  • 33-025-03139, 12/172017/ - 1/4/2018;
  • 33-025-03140, 12/162017/ - 1/4/2018;
  • 33-025-03141, 12/172017/ - 1/4/2018;
I'm not going to go through all three because completion strategies are generally similar on neighboring wells fracked at the same time. I looked at two frack reports and the frack reports are almost identical (at FracFocus). Wow, these are small fracks, less than 6 million gallons of water.

33-025-03140
  • 5,418,936 gallons of water
  • 45,221,021 pounds of water 
  • water was 87.43% by mass
  • 87.43% of ? = 45.221 million lbs
  • 51,722,545 total pounds
  • sand: 11.75%
  • 11.75% of  51,722,545 total pounds = 6077399 lbs of sand
  • my estimates seem to come in low, so my hunch is that about 8 million lbs of sand used in the frack; a relatively small frack by today's standards; or maybe "moderate" would be better adjective. Whatever.
So, we learned or noted several things from this exercise simply by noting that a great well had recently come off-line and the obvious question was why? What did we learn or note?
  • yes, indeed, there has been recent activity in this area that is not shown by the NDIC map
  • three wells have been completed and will report out in the near future (that data is available over at the NDIC but it's irrelevant to me, so I won't look it  up)
  • we observed a neighboring well that was taken off-line for 18 days and when it came back on-line production jumped from 4,000 bbls / month to 18,000 bbls / month
  • generally a well is taken off-line for a longer period of time if it is going to be re-fracked, suggesting this well was not re-fracked; on the other hand, the jump in production was so great, it's hard to believe it was not re-fracked -- perhaps a mini-re-frack? but I would expect FracFocus to have that data -- it does not
  • the amount of water used was incredibly low -- only 5.5 million gallons of water; a typical EOG well in a different field would have used 10 million gallons 
  • the amount of sand on a percentage basis was higher than what I normally see; I normally see about 8% sand by mass; this frack used almost 12% by mass
  • FracFocus does not identify the size of the sand used; we will have to wait for the operator's report
We will learn a lot more when the wells come off the confidential list.
 
Also noted: #29737 was taken off line for 20 days in December, 2017, and 17 days in January, 2018. It will be another month before we see if that well was affected. #29737 is 211 feet east of #19246.