Sunday, January 21, 2018

Flashback, US Shale Cannot Make Up The Difference If Saudi Cuts Oil Production -- The Oil Drum -- July 23, 2013

Flashback, from a July 23, 2013, posting:
Save this one for the archives. No one knows but these are some"givens":
  • Saudi has said very clearly they intend to cut back on oil production when they meet in December, 2013
  • The Oil Drum says US shale won't be able to make up the difference; "Red Queen" effect
Well, so much for that "given" from "The Oil Drum." By the way, "The Oil Drum" was a "Peak Oil" blog. That blog died shortly after this prognostication.

Re-posted: January 21, 2018.

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- An Update Of A Poorly Performing CLR Bakken Well -- January 21, 2018

Wow, I love the Bakken. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. Earlier today I posted the wells that will be coming off the confidential list this next week and it was just like the old days -- a lot of new wells.

Now, tonight, with nothing better to do, I was checking up on some wells that have always interested me.  Among the thirty or forty or more wells I checked out I came across this one, a well that has already produced in excess of 1.5 million bbls of crude oil since 2011.
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale: 2,888 boe (IP); 34-147-96; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs sand/ceramic; t9/11; cum 1.59 million;  
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2017322021100
BAKKEN10-201732380100
BAKKEN9-20171638293858232480047030
BAKKEN8-2017319112914342810829105900
BAKKEN7-20172662576352117685153261380
BAKKEN6-2017309377940633311517112840
BAKKEN5-201731102181010635712107118610

That's strange, I thought: taking a great well off-line with no explanation. So I went to the NDIC map to see what might be going on. Parallel to that horizontal, #20210, is its sister well:
20212:
  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, t9/11; cum 135K; and noted this recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201730194521980953791966718479968
BAKKEN10-201721121501140168471354971916268
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20171002000
BAKKEN4-20175380363981151140
BAKKEN3-201761573200108990
BAKKEN2-2017416217001740158

Reading this file: "this well was drilled back in 2011. Drilling operations ceased on April 23, 2011, after dangerous levels of oil and gas pressure rendered further drilling unwise at the time. The well has been in production in its incomplete form (13,681' MD reached; open hole; no fracking_ since that time and has produced approximately 120,000 bbls of petroleum. This report primarily concerns re-entry drilling information only, as complete data from the original drilling was generated by a different mud-logging company and is at points incomplete." It was a difficult well to re-enter and complete, but "nevertheless, the well was drilled 100% in the delineated target." The target was the first bench of the Three Forks, "approximately 15' thick, beginning 15' below the Three Forks top, and extending to 30' below the same reference point." Re-entry date, July 5, 2017; TD date, July 8, 2017.

First frack, 9/22/17: 61 stages; 14.5 million lbs; with an IP of 1,008.

I've always wondered why this was such a poor well; now I know. Now, we'll see how well it does.

By the way, 120,000 bbls of oil without being fracked is not a bad well -- had it been a Madison well. But drilling a Bakken well back in 2011 was incredibly expensive; in comparison, Madison wells not so much.

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Re-Posting
From An Earlier Post: Notes to the Granddaughters
From August 6, 2012

Last night, the granddaughters and I stayed up late watching Curiosity, the Mars rover, land safely on ... drum roll ... Mars.

They turned 6 years old and 9 years old in early July.

They were mesmerized to see the streaming video coming over my very ancient early version, white, Apple MacBook (the model was first released May 16, 2006. It's hard to believe this 6-year-old laptop does all that it does. It reminds me of another workhorse, the C-130. But again, I digress.). I have to say, the landing was very, very exciting. I think everyone, including the NASA engineers, were completely surprised that after eight months traveling through space, not only did it have a perfect landing, the rover immediately started sending back still photos. Wow, were the girls excited to see those fuzzy gray (grey?) photos of Mars. I'm not sure the 6-year-old knew "what" she was looking at, but she knew it was historic, and important, and something to talk about today.

But while watching, it was impossible to compare the Martian landing last night with the first lunar landing in 1969, the year I graduated from high school. I think Peggy Noonan could write a very, very nice article looking back on the changes baby boomers have seen between 1969 and 2009.

Over the weekend I posted a story about North Dakota's oil tax receipts for calendar year 2011: $1.7 billion. I was going to post a note, asking what $1.7 billion would buy in 2012. Here's the answer: NASA's Mars program.
NASA just released its presidential budget request for 2013 and, as expected, the space agency’s planetary science program takes a big hit. The budget document (summary pdf) is merely the first volley in an often drawn-out exchange between the White House and Congress, but still sets the general direction for the space program. Although the Obama administration’s proposal would slice less than 1 percent from NASA’s current budget, it proposes some major shifts of funds within the agency.
The planetary science program, which received $1.5 billion for 2012, would take a 20 percent cut. NASA would still fly the Mars MAVEN atmospheric mission in 2013 but would back away from two joint missions with the European Space Agency:
NASA is terminating further activity on the formulation activity for the NASA/ ESA ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter 2016 (EMTGO) mission and planning for the previous NASA/ESA Mars 2018 mission concept.
The latter mission would have included the first direct search for life on Mars since the Viking landers of the 1970s. With NASA bailing out, ESA is now casting around for another partner.
There are a lot of articles written about the decline of American education. Many of the articles note the paucity of engineering students, and challenges with science and math programs. It appears "we" have nothing to worry about. It appears the US will need fewer engineers going forward. At least in rocket science. But I digress.

The granddaughters were enthralled. But the most interesting observation: they carried the laptop around from room to room watching the streaming. It did not seem "magic" to them; they've grown up with wi-fi, streaming, no wires, and longer-life batteries that can be charged while they are sleeping. Their children, I assume, if they are still using batteries, will see batteries charged with "near-field charging," not requiring any cables to even charge electronic devices.

So, we'll see.

Flashback: Back In 2011 -- US Running Out Of Oil That We Can Afford -- DOD -- January 21, 2018

This was posted October 27, 2011:
Link here.
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2020.
Remember, it was the US Navy paying $26/gallon for algae-derived fuel, or something like that.

Update: here's the link -- Pentagon paid $150 per gallon for "green" jet fuel to promote alternative energy. If that link ever breaks, here's the link to the blog where the story was posted. The story was posted elsewhere also, but this will do for now.

Random Update Of The Appalachian Gas Field -- Incredible -- January 21, 2018

I wouldn't post / link this except for the fact I've had a very loyal reader who has been pointing this out for the past two years. From oilprice, the world's most innovate gas field -- Appalachian gas. Some data points:
  • Appalachian gas production has surged over 85% since 2014
  • produces more gas than all other shale plays in the US combined
  • a late of pipeline projects finally coming on line in 2018
  • huge and unexpected divergence between rig count and total gas output (is rig count relevant any more?)
  • production per well continued to increase; has now set a record: 26,027 mcf/day (record set last month)
  • a new Marcellus gas well today yields almost twice as much gas as the same with well with similar latitude/longitude in Hanynesville field, East Texas, the second largest producing gas region in the US
  • now drilling super laterals -- as long as 20,000 feet long
  • multi-well pad now the standard; typical pad currently expect to contain a dozen wells
  • "walking" rigs; takes just a few days as opposed to months to complete a well all the while achieving 50% increase in efficiency
    • latest example: Eclipse Resources drilled a Utica well in less than 17 days; length exceeding 19,000 feet
  • cost of an average well has dropped from $1.2 million in 2011 to $300,000 currently
  • the expected IRR for a 12-well pad with 12,000 feet lateral exceeds 100%
  • the expected IRR for a 5-well pad with 5,500 feet lateral barely breaks 70% mark
Much more at the link.

The Oyloe Wells In North Tobacco Garden Field

The Oyloe wells are starting to come off the confidential list, January, 2018. 

The Oyloe wells:
  • 32615, SI/NC, Oasis, Oyloe  5199 14-26 10T, North Tobacco Garden,
  • 32616, 1,363, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 11B, North Tobacco Garden, t10/17; cum 340K 11/18;
  • 32617, 1,157, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 12TX, North Tobacco Garden, t10/17; cum 293K 11/18;
  • 32768, 1,065 Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42023 2B, North Tobacco Garden, t8/17; cum 273K 11/8;
  • 32769, 869, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 3T, North Tobacco Garden, t8/17; cum 170K 11/8;
  • 32770, 1,411, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 4B, North Tobacco Garden, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, t7/17; cum 259K 11/18;
  • 32771, 1,138, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 5T, North Tobacco Garden, Three Forks B1, 26 stages; 2 million lbs, t8/17; cum 128K 11/18;
  • 32772, 1,698, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 42-23 6B, North Tobacco Garden, t8/17; cum 311K 11/18;
  • 32555, 903, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 43-23 8T, North Tobacco Garden; t9/17; cum 131K 11/18;
  • 32556, 1,022, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 43-23 9B, North Tobacco Garden; t9/17; cum 354K 11/18;

Huge Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week; Expect Huge Production Data When January, 2018, Is Reported -- January 21, 2018

Friday, January 26, 2018: 61 wells for the quarter; 61 wells for the year
33653, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Vinger-156-98-2116H-5, Wheelock, no production data,
32356, 1,054, CLR, Hereford Federal 4-20H2, Elm Tree, Three Forks (2), 28 stages; 6.9 million lbs, mesh, large, small, t9/17; cum 75K 11/17; Hereford Federal wells are tracked here;
31490, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1A-7-3H, Charlson, no production data,

Thursday, January 25, 2018: 58wells for the quarter; 58 wells for the year
33724, 686, Newfield, Anderson State 152-96-16-21-20H, Westberg, Three Forks, 52 stages, 7.5 million lbs, t11/17; cum 5K over 16 days;
33678, SI/NC, Zavanna, Hanson 28-33 5H, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
33654, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Vinger-156-98-2116H-4, Wheelock, no production data,
33141, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8C-6-4H, Charlson, no production data,
31642, 1,368, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 43-23 9B, North Tobacco Garden; a very nice well; 66K in first three months; 50 stages; 30 million lbs proppant including 3 million lbs of expense ceramic; t10/17; 66K 11/17;
31471, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Makowsky 4-31-30-158N-99W,  Ellisville, no production data;
31319, SI/NC, BR, Midnight Run 4-8-12MTFH, Union Center, no production data,

Wednesday, January 24, 2018: 51wells for the quarter; 51 wells for the year
33721, 1,934, Newfield, Anderson 152-96-9-4-4HLW, Keene, 4 sections, Bakken/Three Forks, 62 stages; 7.6 million lbs, t11/17; cum 9K after first 6 days;
33655, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Vinger-156-98-2116H-3, Wheelock, no production data,
31318, SI/NC, BR, Midnight Run 3-8-12MBH, Union Center, no production data,

Tuesday, January 23, 2018: 48 wells for the quarter; 48 wells for the year
33722, 1,418, Newfield, Anderson State 152-96-16-21-6HLW, Clear Creek, 62 stages; 7.6 million lbs, t11/17; cum 12K over first 9 days;
33656, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Vinger-156-09-2116H-2, Wheelock, no production data,
33087, drl, St Croix Operating, Northern Border #1, North Haas, no production data, 
32349, 1,168, CLR, Hereford Federal 9-20H, Elm Tree, 86 stages; 14.3 million lbs, in excess of 100K in first four months of full production; t8/17; cum 116K 11/17; no production first three months of production;
31640, 1,042, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 43-23 8T, North Tobacco Garden, Three Forks B1, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t8/17; cum 96K 11/17;
31317, SI/NC, BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, Union Center, no production data,
30239, 2,728, CLR, Bud 4-30H, Crazy Man Creek, 58 stages; 9.4 million lbs, t9/17; cum 79K 11/17;
30238, 1,439, CLR, Alfsvaag -31H1, Crazy Man Creek, Three Forks 1, 68 stages; 10.6 million lbs, t9/17; cum 65K 11/17;
30053, 257, Lime Rock Resources, Elroy Kadrmas 6-3-10H-143-96, Fayette, 40 stages; 5.8 million lbs, t7/17; cum 44K 11/17; 

Monday, January 22, 2018: 39 wells for the quarter; 39 wells for the year
33723, conf, Newfield, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-20H, Westberg, producing; 12K first month;
33679, SI/NC, Zavanna, Hanson 28-33 4TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data;

Sunday, January 21, 2018: 37 wells for the quarter; 37 wells for the year
None.

Saturday, January 20, 2018: 37 wells for the quarter; 37 wells for the year
33601, 1,800, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-3, Antelope, Sanish pool, 60 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t12/17; cum --
32350, 213, CLR, Hereford Federal 7-20H, Elm Tree, producing; not particularly remarkable for a CLR Elm Tree well; one wonders if it was a failed frack; t8/17; cum 20K 11/17; yup, a failed frac; liner issues that led to suspension of fracking operations; 17 stages; 3.1 million lbs;
23035, SI/NC, Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 2TFH, East Fork, no production data;

Filloon Updates Chevron Completions -- January 21, 2018

In the article linked below, the most important thing that jumps out at me: 
Operator production improvements have occurred consistently since 2014. This is when operators began to focus in better fracturing near the well bore
This tells me exactly what I've thought all along; 500-ft radially from the wellbore is probably the max efficiency for fracking which means increased density of wells in any given drilling unit.

Over at Seeking Alpha.
Well design is driving oil production gains for US E&Ps. Oil prices have improved as world inventories decrease. Improved well design is lowering breakevens, and economic improvements should continue in 2018. Better source rock stimulation has increased oil production per foot. We have not seen this leveling out, which seems to support the hypothesis of further improvements going forward. This may lead to increased US production, but higher prices will be needed to stimulate meaningful growth. Increased production could place a ceiling on oil prices. We think demand will more than offset US production in 2018.
Chevron has a relatively large acreage positions in the Permian. This is important as the Midland and Delaware Wolfcamp will fill much of the supply decreases from current world oil legacy projects.
The Bakken and Eagle Ford will also be involved, but West Texas is currently the best place to be. We pulled 116 horizontal completions done in 2016 and later. 53 laterals were 6,000 feet or less. The graph below plots oil production over the life of each well. Locations that have been online over a shorter period of time are producing much better.
CVX is at the lower end of production improvements when compared to other operators in the Permian. CVX has used more one mile laterals. Production improvements based on feet, have CVX closer to the average.
CVX should do very well in 2018. Operator production improvements have occurred consistently since 2014. This is when operators began to focus in better fracturing near the well bore. It is a change from longer laterals (more feet), to better stimulation (focus on more oil per foot).

The Daily Note

The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down
Days 1 -  2 -- this page

The Last 65 Days Of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

January 22, 2018, T+2: second full day of government shutdown passes without incident. Heidi Heitkamp one of four Democratic senators to break ranks with Chuck Schumer on the Schumer Shutdown. She must be reading the ND polls. [Update: wow, that was fast. Congress votes to fund government. Shutdown did not even last one full business day; lasted less than 72 hours, altogether.]

January 21, 2018, T+1: first full day of the government shutdown, as of midnight, ten hours ago. Top story at CBS News, Sunday morning edition: university snowflakes.

It's Morning In America; The Government Is Shut Down (LOL) And Congressmen Are Getting $200,000/Year Simply For Getting Out Of Bed; The President Not Impeached Yet, The Political Page, T+365 -- January 21, 2018

Morning in America., snow cover on all 50 states reported a few days ago.


President Trump has now been in office a full 365 days. I wasn't sure Hillary was going to let him get sworn in; surely Bill's army had a way of stopping that from happening. But it did not. Truly amazing.

On the other hand, Germany's the real western country that has disappointed its citizens. But I digress.

Time to take a look back. First, my favorite:


Then, this from The Daily Beast: Obama mocked Trump's political ambitions. Trump spent his first year dismantling Obama's legacy. I didn't read the article, just the headline. I wonder how ObamaCare will be seen five years from now. My hunch: ObamaCare, the New Coke, and the Edsel will all have a chapter of their own in some new book looking at ... well, looking at something. Tesla could certainly join the list.

Speaking of which, speaking of Tesla, my hunch: GM will crush Tesla. In the local area I see a handful of Teslas -- this is a very, very high-end community in north Texas -- but once I get a bit east of the immediate area I start to see a few Chevrolet Bolts. In Grapevine, Classic Chevrolet bills itself as the largest Chevrolet dealer in the US. I don't know if that's true. I do know they sell a lot of Corvettes to American pilots. So, on revenue, they may the biggest; on volume, hard to say. But GM, as well as Ford, is going to have a ton of EVs to select from by this time next year, and we will still be watching pathetic numbers being reported by Tesla.

By the way, "ObamaCare" in Canada? The waiting time to see a neurologist when referred by a family practice physician is now 4.5 years. Mark Perry has a copy of an incredible referral reply.

***************************
Government Shutdown

Time for President Trump to get ahead of this thing.

He needs to go positive. He needs to make it so painful that Congress (either party) will never want to "shut down" the government again.

1. He needs to start signing executive orders again.

2. First executive order: to fully pay active duty military and border law enforcement. (Yes, I know he doesn't have the authority to do this unilaterally, but there are ways to write executive orders -- as an example, in fact, DACA was never a law, much less an executive order. DACA started out as a speech and reached its zenith as a memo from the President. Watch the 9th Circuit Court and the Dems protest about paying the military. I remember George Washington had the same problem with pay for his troops; I wasn't there but I read the history books.)

3. Second executive order: to announce that Social Security checks will go out in full and on schedule. (That, of course, already happens, but Nancy Pelosi does not know that.)

4. Third, direct the US Postal Service to maintain full operations. (The US Postal Service, not even part of the US government any more, is not affected by the shut down, but there are still folks who think it is.)

5. Fourth, direct NASA to monitor incoming meteors.

6. Fifth, direct Scott Pruitt to transfer more money from EPA to the military.

7. Sixth, declare all national parks, museums, and monuments temporary consulates. A consulate is a representative of a government to another, and there can be many of these per country. In this case, the new consulates would be there for disaffected Americans and sovereign native Americans. Open the Smithsonian and all other national museums and monuments. The gift shops and the restaurants don't have to be open, but open the doors to the museums and monument grounds and have a few US Marines stand watch, as they do at embassies. Don't say it can't be done; President Trump moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem with an executive order. Remind folks that his White House is open to the public, even as the former president used the shutdown as an "excuse" to close the White House to the public, which he never re-opened except by appointment.

8. Seventh, order HHS to ensure that health care insurance for children is not interrupted.

9. Eighth, send a letter to Congress that a funding bill to "back pay" furloughed government workers will not be signed if there is anything other than funding a) the government; and, b) the wall in the bill re-opening government. That will set the phones ringing off the walls of Congress.

***********************
Priceless

Even as she says Trump can't keep from thinking about Hillary, Gail Collins can't get past the facts that a) Hillary lost the election (that was over a year ago; and, b) Hillary probably lost because she forgot that Wisconsin was a state, also. Priceless. 

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By The Way, How's The Blog Doing?

Glad you asked.

Only Six Months Ago, Goldman Sachs Warned Of $40 Oil -- January 21, 2018

Perhaps they were just a bit early in their prognostication. As oil trends higher, Russia and Saudi Arabia are likely to throw caution to the wind and start producing again.

Having said that, more and more talk of oil trending higher, and at least one trader is making "what-if" plans for $100 oil. No link; saw the story last night; did not meet the blog's criteria for linking. LOL.

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Idle Chatter -- Nothing About The Bakken

I have a free day -- at least until 2:00 p.m. Everyone is at a soccer tournament; they left at 6:20 a.m. this morning to drive clear across Texas for another tournament. Never seems to quit. Actually, it's only an hour away. Our granddaughter's team should make the finals, and right now it is projected they will be seeded #1 in their bracket, and could end up facing the #2 team in Texas for their age group.

Soccer. This is the "06" team that she has been with for several years. It is composed of girls born in calendar year 2006. She is the youngest, born in 2007, and allowed to be on the "06" team by some loophole that I don't understand. But she is the youngest. Three nights ago during practice her coach told her she was the best player on the field that night -- and then he noted she was the youngest, by 18 months in some cases.

After their first game in this tournament, which they won, the coach told her she was NOT the best player on the team during that game. Tough love. LOL.

I'm having a blast. It started last night. And will continue through the day. No grandparenting responsibilities, and another NFL-free Sunday. Amazing how much free time that creates.

Movies: I watched  Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy for the umpteenth time. It's a standard DVD so it plays in the Apple computer DVD drive. Interestingly, not one Apple product will play Blu-Ray and that will never change. Early on, it was believed that Steve Jobs made that decision because of licensing rights -- he didn't want to pay the royalty that would ensue if he added Blu-Ray capability to his products. Since then it has evolved to the rationale that a) he wants to keep the desktop monitor-computers as thin as possible; and, b) streaming is the future, not moving parts that DVSs entail.

The good news: almost every Blu-Ray DVD I order these days -- very, very few, by the way -- come with all three: a) conventional DVD that plays on Apple products; b) Blu Ray; and, c) streaming (inside the case there is a code that one uses to download the movie directly). But all agree that streaming is not a robust as Blu-Ray.

The whole story is interesting because at one time Apple was a proponent of Blu-Ray and Microsoft was going the HD-DVD route. Blu Ray won out. I had a blog on that years ago. This was one such post.

Books: I added this book to my nightstand last night -- The Man Who Made the Movies: The Meteoric Rise and Tragic Fall of Williams Fox, Vanda Krefft, c. 2017. I skimmed through the book at Barnes and Noble -- came across it completely by accident. It met all my criteria for buying the book. Having said that, what sold me on it was the description of the "gilded age." It's one thing to read the wiki entry but it's another thing to read so much about this period in US history by such a great writer.

Goldman Sachs is mentioned on page 3 of the book and was the principal banker standing in the way of William Fox's plans to buy Warner Bros. Whether the deal would go through or not depended on the US Attorney General. That was back in 1929. Here it is, 2018, and nothing has changed. LOL.
  • the biography itself: 755 pages
  • notes: 127 pages
  • bibliography: 11 pages
  • index: 25 pages
Weather: back to nice weather here in north Texas. Not sure how long it will last but hopefully we have had our winter. We set a electricity-demand record last week due to the cold but the grid held. The Dallas Morning News says the record was shattered. I did not read the article; just the headline.  The regulators assured us the grid would hold but there was some doubt among some.