Tuesday, January 16, 2018

A Record Well In The Bakken? -- January 16, 2018

Updates

March 24, 2018: well, that's too bad. It looks like that was a typo. Current production data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201822197241990227944473431851128687
BAKKEN12-201729274782783939407585672628432222
BAKKEN11-201730461734679994848739223049743142
BAKKEN10-2017549333505794469735543136

Original Post 

If this is not a typo at the NDIC scout ticket, this is a huge well:
  • 31637, 1,804, XTO, Lundin 11X-15A, Siverston, API: 33-053-07116, t11/17; cum 71K after 31 days; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20173067088670261033651176954826369124
BAKKEN10-2017438122708758256344610953

Other data about this well:
  • total depth: 21,406 feet; total drilling days: 15;
  • background gas fluctuated between 350 units - 6,800 units
  • the highest gas value was a show at 17,512' MD of 7,171 units while drilling the lateral
  • FracFocus: well was fracked 9/4-5/2017; 12,956,161 gallons of water; sand, 9.8% by mass;
  • 13 million gallons of water, 9.8% by weight sand, per FracFocus:
  • 90.2% of what =  80,949,062 pounds of water = 108 million pounds
  • 9.8% of 108 million lbs = 10.6 million lbs of sand
  • Later, from the NDIC: 40 stages; 11.9 million lbs
In November, 2017:
  • 67,088 bbls crude oil
  • 117,695 mcf natural gas = 117,695,000 / 6001 = 19,612 boe
  • total: 86,700 boe in first full month
If that is not a typo, that is likely another record in the Bakken. One can run through the various records with the "records" tag below.

See this post for example.

Note: it is impossible for me to keep track of all these "record" wells. So, these are simply highlightig wells that certainly vie for bragging rights as "record" wells.

Other wells to follow up on:
  • 20097, 1,667, XTO, Lundin 11-15SEH, Siverston, t7/11; cum 291K 1/18;
  • 32515, 1,997, Lundin 11X-15AXB, Siverston, 42K in first full month; t11/17; cum 77K 1/18;
  • 31636, 627, Lundin 11X-15E, Siverston, 22K in 10 days -- extrapolates to 66K over 30 days; t10/17; cum 20K 1/18; off-line 1/18;
  • 31638, 2,978, Lundin 11X-15EXH, Siverston, 17K in first full month; t11/17; cum 109K 1/18;
  • 32516, 1,892, Lundin 11X-15F, Siverston, 15K over 18 days; extrapolates to 25K over 30 days; t11/17; cum 50K 1/18;
  •  
  • 26455, 477, XTO, Broderson 31X-27C, t5/14; cum 243K 1/18; recently off-line; small bump in production when it came back on line in 10/17;
  • 26456, 3,072, XTO, Broderson 31X-27H, t6/14; cum 185I 1/18; off-line recently; no bump in production after coming back on line in 10/17;
  • 26457, 1,236, XTO, Broderson 31X-27D, t5/14; cum 215K 1/18; back on line after being off line; small bump in production (maybe, but if so, very slight)

Five New Permits; Active Rigs Power Ahead To 57; Ten DUCs Completed -- January 16, 2018

Active rigs:


$63.881/16/201801/16/201701/16/201601/16/201501/16/2014
Active Rigs573649157187

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Resource Energy (4); MRO
  • Fields: Blooming Prairie (Divide): Reunion Bay (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Resource Energy has permits for four permits in SESE 31-163-98;
Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31345, 543, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 4-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin oil field, t11/17; cum 4K first 9 days;
  • 31346, 296, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 3-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, t12/17; cum --
  • 31637, 1,804, XTO, Lundin 11X-15A, Siverston, t11/17; cum 71K after 31 days;
  • 31899, 174, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 2-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin, t10/17; cum 6K after 27 days;
  • 32754, 2,468, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3FXG, Bear Creek, t10/17; cum --
  • 32986, 105, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 5-36-25-158N-100 TFH (no typo), Dublin, t12/17; cum --
  • 32999, 488, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 7-36-25-158N-100W TFH, Dublin, t10/17; cum 16K after 35 days;
  • 33000, 380, Crescent Point Energy, EPEUSC Dressler 6-36-25-158-100W TFH, Dublin, t11/17; cum 3K after 6 days;
  • 33215, 1,149, Kraken Operating, Feller 22-15 2H, Lone Tree Lake, t11/17; cum 6K after 10 days;
  • 33217, 1,024, Kraken Operating, Felelr 22-15 4H, Lone Tree Lake, t11/17; cum 4K after 10 days;
Operator transfer: 44 wells from Petro Harvester to 31 Operating (recently, a new operator in North Dakota)
  • oldest permit: 07139
  • most recent permit: 20776
  • all permits in Bottineau County
Operator transfer: ten wells from COP to Scout Energy Management, LLC
  • oldest permit: 07078
  • most recent permit: 13790
  • all permits in Stark County

Hess Cutting Workforce As It Battles Activist Investor -- Fox -- January 16, 2018

Hess is cutting hundreds of workers as it battles activist investor, Fox is reporting.

Wow, the headline is truly understated this time. From the linked story:
Hess Corp is cutting roughly 13 percent of its workforce and streamlining operations as it battles an activist hedge fund shareholder pushing for the U.S. oil and gas producer to post its first quarterly profit since 2014.

Most of the cuts, which could start as early as Tuesday and continue through the week, are in Houston, home to a majority of the company’s employees.

Lorrie Hecker, a Hess spokeswoman, confirmed the cuts, saying about 300 workers, or about 13 percent of the company’s workforce, would be dismissed.
Hess had not cut staff two years ago even as some peers let thousands of workers go, with executives publicly saying they would retain talent in anticipation of a price rebound. Recent asset sales and pressure from investors to improve results have the company reversing course just as rivals post improved results from rising commodity prices.
The employees who lose their jobs can blame a hedge fund. Hess held out -- trying not to cut workforce.

Oil Well Fire South Of Marmarth, ND, Today? -- Cryptic Comment From Facebook -- January 16, 2018 -- 1:49 P.M.

Facebook comment did not mention "oil well." Only mentioned a fire south of Marmarth. However, "locals" can easily tell the difference between oil well fires and grass fires (and, of course, a grass fire in North Dakota at this time of the year is highly unlikely -- actually, impossible, I would think).

Update at Facebook suggests the fire is out.

Marmarth is is the southwest corner of the state, well away from the center of activity in the Bakken. It is located about 80 miles south-southwest of Belfield. Center of legacy Red River wells, I believe.

Electricity: The Road To California -- January 16, 2018

From Bloomberg:
The California Public Utilities Commission approved an order Thursday that will require PG&E Corp., the state’s biggest utility, to change the way it supplies power when demand peaks. Instead of relying on electricity from three gas-fired plants run by Calpine Corp., PG&E will have to use batteries or other non-fossil fuel resources to keep the lights on in the most-populated U.S. state.
It will be fascinating to watch how this plays out.  My brother-in-law is already complaining about the high price of electricity in California.

My hunch is the order phases in this requirement. Let's hope.

********************************
Update On The Bullet Train

From The St Louis Dispatch, January 16, 2018:
  • estimated cost for first phase climbed by 35% this week to $10.6 billion
  • first phase: 119 miles; Central Valley
  • entire project now projected at $67 billion; when voters approved project in 2008, project estimated to cost $40 billion
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Road To New England

Now that the cold snap is over, it looks like the grid in New England is back to "normal." Spot electricity only spiked to $150/MWh, but look at the piddly amount renewable energy provided -- 6%. And it was pointed out that by renewable in New England: half of that 6% is wind; and half of that 6% is biomass, wood chips, not exactly what most folks consider "renewable energy."



And so it goes.

Natural Gas Production In North Dakota Hits An All-Time High -- January 16, 2018

Worth re-posting.
Natural gas production: in April, 2017, it was reported that North Dakota produced a record amount of natural gas: in that month, natural gas production jumped 6% more than 1.8 billion cubic feet / day. What was North Dakota's natural gas production in the most recent month, November, 2017? Yup, another all-time high: 2.1 billion cubic feet / day.

Crude oil:  North Dakota production increased almost 1% month-over-month. 

Director's Cut Has Been Posted; North Dakota Crude Oil Production Data For November, 2017, Has Been Released; Crude Oil Production Increased Month-Over-Month; Producing Wells At An All-Time High; Natural Gas Production Hits Another All-Time High

Director's Cut for November, 2017, data, pending. The Director's Cut should be released today at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Link here. NDIC site for calendar and links for past and current Director Cuts here.

The usual disclaimer applies. I do "this" quickly and there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Pricing, most current data I can find, January 12, 2018:

A reader told me that the NDIC uses the pricing at Flint Hills Resources for the oil prices reported at the monthly Director's Cut. At the link, one has a choice of clicking on "EDQ" or "Bulletins." Click on "Bulletins" and then click on "Download." The result should show up as a PDF on your desktop.


*****************************
The Data

Natural gas production: in April, 2017, it was reported that North Dakota produced a record amount of natural gas: in that month, natural gas production jumped 6% more than 1.8 billion cubic feet / day. What was North Dakota's natural gas production in the most recent month, November, 2017? Yup, another all-time high: 2.1 billion cubic feet / day.

Oil production
  • November, 2017: 1,194,920 bopd
  • October, 2017: 1,183,810 bopd
  • Delta:  an increase of 11,110 bbls
  • Delta: an increase of just under 1%
Producing wells:
  • November, 2017: 14,324 (an all-time high)
  • October, 2017: 14,253
  • Delta: an increase of 71 wells;
Permitting
  • December, 2017: 147
  • November, 2017: 119
  • October, 2017: 147 
  • September, 2017: 104
  • August, 2017: 101
  • July, 2017: 146 (huge jump)
Oil price (WTI), breakeven price statewide = $21
  • today: $54.75
  • December, 2017: $49.56
  • November: $49.75
  • October: $43.56
  • September: $39.56
  • August: $37.93
  • July: $35.83
  • June: $34.72
Rig count:
  • today: 56
  • December: 52
  • November: 54
  • October: 56
  • September: 56
  • August: 56
  • July: 58
  • June: 55
Wells not producing, total: about 2,375 not producing; that exceeds the number of wells completed in any year during the boom
  • waiting on completion: 883, down from 6 the end of October to the end of November
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,492, up 21 from the end of October to the end of December
Takeaway capacity:
  • November: takeaway capacity including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • October data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • September data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • August data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • July data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • June data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • May data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
Natural gas capture, has been getting "worse" and FBIR was a major issue; the trend has improved; it looks like ND has "turned the corner" on this issue
  • statewide: 86% (previous -- 84% [trend has improved)
  • FBIR: 75% (previous -- 74%)
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: October, 2017, was terrible; it's getting better on FBIR

The Political Page, T+360 -- January 16, 2018

This week, specifically, Saturday, January 20, 2018, will mark the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump's presidency.

Unable to impeach the president, the anti-Trumpers would love to see a government shut-down blamed on President Trump on the anniversary of his first term, going into the mid-term elections. The tea leaves certainly suggest we will see a (partial) government shutdown, purely to make a political statement, as of midnight January 19, 2018.

Time for a poll. If we see a government shutdown on Friday, it will last:
  • through the weekend
  • one full week
  • two weeks
  • longer than two weeks
  • other
My hunch: if we do see a partial government shutdown, it will last through the weekend and then, based on the polling results, will come to a quick end or will continue. It's very possible the average American really won't care, but the mainstream media will have a field day, as they say.

******************************
For The Archives

2017: the year that the mainstream media went to war with a newly-elected, popular president. At the end of the day, the most used phrase in 2017: "fake news."

A big "thank you" to a reader for spotting this article. Just in time for the poll and supports my feeling that the president's first year will be capped by a (partial) government shutdown which will occur over the weekend, which begs the question: "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

I think we will have an answer to that story a week from now, next Tuesday, January 23, 2018. 

***************************
Books On My Nightstand

The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism, Michael. J Behe, author of Darwin's Black Box, the former c. 2007
Introduction to Organic and Biochemistry, 4th Edition, William H. Brown, c. 1987 (yes, I know)
Absolutely Small: How Quantum Theory Explains Our Everyday World, Michael D. Fayer, Ph. D., c. 2010

All previously read; being re-read. Need to read this stuff to keep with the granddaughters.

Monday, January 16, 2018

Zeits: US production of NGLs is skyrocketing
  • U.S. production of NGLs and fuel ethanol exceeded 5 million barrels per day in October
  • NGL production growth is likely to remain very strong in the next five years
  • The abundant supply of low-price NGLs is a strategic advantage and powerful growth stimulus for the U.S. petrochemical complex
Filloon: on Anadarko.
The Delaware Basin has seen the greatest increase [in production]. It is deeper than in Midland, and the best results have been located on the border of the oil and gas windows. Depth and higher natural gas percentages work in concert to produce better well pressures. We are seeing excellent results across multiple counties. Multiple intervals provide an number of optional targets, and marked upside for operators. 
Delaware costs are also decreasing as infrastructure increases and operators get more comfortable with the geology. 
EOG Resources has had the best results.
This isn't just in the Delaware, as it has produced new records in several plays across the US. Matador has also done well. It has acreage in the Delaware core. Concho may be the best way to play the Delaware. It has the best overall footprint of any Delaware operator.
Anadarko has two main areas of focus in the L48. The Delaware Basin is its flagship and it has a very large leasehold in the DJ Basin. We pulled 99 horizontals completed by APC since January of 2016. Forty-one locations have laterals longer than 7,000 feet. APC is starting to see some excellent results out of Loving County. It has been using laterals between 7,000 and 8,000 feet. These results are a large improvement over recent years [not quite as long as "standard" length in the Bakken].


***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.051/16/201801/16/201701/16/201601/16/201501/16/2014
Active Rigs553649157187

RBN Energy: tracking the effects of Energy Transfer's Rover pipeline on gas flows, production.