Monday, January 1, 2018

North Dakota Recorded The Coldest Temperature On Earth Today -- January 1, 2018

The coldest place on earth today was in Hettinger, ND.

- 45 degrees.

Temperatures at all official global sites were checked -- including the North Pole, the South Pole, Siberia, Russia, the rest of the US, etc., and the coldest temperature recorded at an official weather monitoring/recording station was in Hettinger, ND.

Hettinger is in southwest North Dakota, near the South Dakota state line.


Note where the all-time lowest temperature for North Dakota for this date was recorded -- Parshall, ND -- the center of the Bakken.

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Other Records

From Twitter:
Confirmed: not a single passenger death on a commercial JET aircraft anywhere on earth in 2017. First time in sixty years and a first since such aircraft became the dominant form of travel.

Tough Love -- Prince Salman Lowers The Boom On Indolence, Sloth, And Fraud -- January 1, 2018

Saudi, UAE introduce VAT in first for Gulf -- France24 -- Don sent me the story. I had seen it earlier; had not yet linked it. From the lede:
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates introduced value-added tax from Monday, a first for the Gulf which has long prided itself on its tax-free, cradle-to-grave welfare system.
Saudi Arabia compounded the New Year blow for motorists with an unannounced hike of up to 127 percent in petrol prices with immediate effect from midnight.
They are the latest in series of measures introduced by Gulf oil producers over the past two years to boost revenues and cut spending as a persistent slump in world prices has led to ballooning budget deficits.
The five percent sales tax applies to most goods and services and analysts project that the two governments could raise as much as $21 billion in 2018, equivalent to 2.0 percent of GDP.
My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:
On September 2, 2017, the rate at which Saudi's foreign reserves could deplete to ZERO was five years. The kingdom was losing anywhere from $3 billion to $8 billion a month.

Most recently, their cash reserves increased slightly but that came just as Prince Salman held 100's of princes for ransom. I think the media was suggesting that Prince Salman hoped to get $100 billion from the princes. That would cover $5 billion / month for twenty months.

Losing market share and price of oil struggling to stay above $65 (Brent) suggests that Saudi is not out of the woods yet, especially considering all the challenges facing them: a) war with Yemen; b) war with Iran (but I repeat myself); c) Prince Salman's grand Vision 2030 plan; and, d) the IPO.

We've seen this movie before but the prequel was Iran; the sequel is Saudi Arabia. And yes, there will be many sequels.

This from page 366, The Oil Kings, Andrew Scott Cooper, c. 2011.
On January 1, 1977, Mohammad Reza Shah held a long audience with Court Minister Alam and accused the Saudis of betrayal. "We must give them the thrashing they deserve." The next day was worse. Court Minister Alam was greeted with the shattering news that Iran faced financial ruin. "We're broke," admitted the Shah.
"Everything seems doomed to grind to a standstill, and meanwhile many of the programs we had planned must be postponed."

He expected oil exports to fall by as much as 30 percent. When Alam tried to offer reassurance, the Shah railed against Yamani and the Saudis. "It's going to be tough," the Shah admitted. A few days earlier, during an interview with the newspaper Kayban, the Shah had foolishly lashed out at his own people, blaming them for Iran's financial crisis and implying they needed to tighten their belts. Iran had become "a paradise of indolence and sloth." It was time for everyone to roll up their sleeves.

"If we do not revise our policies we shall not survive."

".... if Saudi floods the market with oil, ... it may force us to decrease our production. And if this happens, it will affect our economic plans, our military buildup, and especially our foreign aid program ... I am worried about our internal developments," the Shah said in an interview with BusinessWeek."
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A Math Lesson

From Goodreads.com:
“If you've got a dollar and you spend 29 cents on a loaf of bread, you've got 71 cents left; But if you've got seventeen grand and you spend 29 cents on a loaf of bread, you've still got seventeen grand. There's a math lesson for you.” ― Steve Martin

Whiting's McNamara Wells Have Been Fracked -- January 1, 2018

This page will not be updated. The Whiting McNamara wells are tracked here. Earlier I posted:
August 23, 2017: is Whiting getting ready to frack a couple of McNamara wells? #31858, #31857, #21890, #21889, #16731. Update, 1/18: the wells have been fracked; still conf; only #16731 showed jump in production;
The two McNamara wells have obviously been fracked; back on conf status, but production data provided:
  • 31858, conf, Whiting, McNamara 41-26H, Sanish, producing;
  • 31857, conf, Whiting, McNamara 41-26H, Sanish, producing:
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31858, conf, Whiting, McNamara 41-26H, Sanish:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20172818219621
9-2017138658626

31857, conf, Whiting, McNamara 41-26H, Sanish:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20172195811695
9-201760872858
8-2017160

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Happy New Year's Day ... And The Rose Parade and the Rose Bowl

I say this almost every January 1: I think the Rose Parade is too short. It could go for another 30 minutes and I would not tire of it. It is so much better than Macy's parade. Unless one likes balloons.

Had May and I settled in southern California after finishing school, we likely would have lived in South Pasadena. That was where I lived for four years, about a mile south of Colorado Boulevard. At one time I knew Pasadena/South Pasadena as well as Williston. Well, not quite.

I vividly recall being introduced to Trader Joe's in South Pasadena and Bob's Big Boy at the east end of Colorado Boulevard. [On return trips to Pasadena, it's my impression that light rail has significantly disrupted the community, but I may be in the minority with that opinion.]

And had we retired in South Pasadena, May would have become the little old lady from Pasadena -- the terror of Colorado Boulevard in her yellow little MG -- her first sports car back before we got married. She still can't keep her foot off the accelerator.



I don't recall if we were married when this photo was taken or if we were still dating. This was taken at her parents' home in San Pedro. Her Hispanic father was a 30-year US Army veteran, having served in WWII, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. He met his future wife while serving in South Korea, on "R&R" to Japan, where he met and married a young Japanese woman, our granddaughters great-grandmother.

It should be noted, that May has not changed in appearance after all these years.


The CLR Bratlien / Melgaard Wells In Divide County Have Been Updated -- January 1, 2018

Update here.

Random Update Of CLR's Rath Federal Wells That Are In Process Of Being Completed -- January 1, 2018

This page will not be updated. Several CLR Rath Federal wells have moved from SI/NC to conf and are now reporting production data.
  • 31675, SI/NC, CRL, Rath Federal 10-22H1, Sanish, no production data, TD = 21,034;
  • 31676, 2,028, CLR, Rath Federal 11-22H, Sanish, t10/17; cum 47K 11/17; TD = 25,370 ;
  • 31677, 405, CLR, Rath Federal 12-22H2, Sanish, t10/17; cum 65K 11/17; TD = 25,700; a directional component? see graphic below
  • 31678, 1,424, CLR, Rath Federal 13-22H, Sanish, t10/17; cum 69K 11/17; TD = 25,495;
  • 31670, 2,063, CLR, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages, 14 million lbs, t8/16; cum 188K 11/17; TD = 25,266; was off-line for seven months;
  • 31671, 1,486, CRL, Rath Federal 6-22H1, Sanish, 25K first full month, TD = 25,416; t9/17; cum 94K 1/18;
  • 31672, 1,076, CRL, Rath Federal 7-22H, Sanish, 34K first full month, TD = 25,305; t9/17; cum 80K 1/18;
  • 31673, 2,031, CRL, Rath Federal 8-22H2, Sanish, 37K first full month, TD = 25,500; t9/17; cum 146K 1/18;
  • 31674, SI/NC-->conf, CRL, Rath Federal 9-22H, Sanish, 34K first full month, TD = 25,322; t9/17; cum 102K 1/18;

The BR Dodge Wells Soon To Be Reported? Dimmick Lake Wells -- January 1, 2018

Updates

November 21, 2018: it now appears that the Dodge wells are in "full production." The jump in production began in early 2018. Typical production profile looks like this, this is for #32977:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018281697216964623528808287890
BAKKEN8-20183130707307551332450314502860
BAKKEN7-20183122929229161003143472434510
BAKKEN6-20183024509244621099538821101137786
BAKKEN5-201831258572589713658441343097513136
BAKKEN4-2018302463724608876240258379112325
BAKKEN3-2018231915919031983234697346750
BAKKEN2-20180050000
BAKKEN1-2018213212721701700


May 19, 2018: wells have recently been fracked; production data updated; I do not understand what I'm seeing with these new BR Dimmick Lake wells:
  • reporting very low 24-hour IPs; two to three months of constrained production
  • huge amounts of proppant: 10 - 14 million lbs; mostly large sand or mesh but varies across the wells
  • very few stages (29 stages, in general)
  • the sundry forms state "the first 29 stages" or "the first 30 stages" suggesting more stages yet to follow
  • shortage of sand and high price for sand is being reported in the Bakken but this seems not to impact BR's Dimmick Lake wells
February 16 2018: huge jump in production; see this post.

Original Post

Based on the production profile of this well, it looks like the neighboring wells have been fracked and will soon be reported. The well:
  • 17200, 829, BR, Dodge 1-17H, Dimmick Lake, small re-frack, t6/08; cum 330K 4/19;
Production production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201831890087425631150451493335
BAKKEN2-20185171918721966387438620
BAKKEN1-2018101160000
BAKKEN12-20172484258141423612337122770
BAKKEN11-2017121176958410170916790
BAKKEN10-20171000000
BAKKEN9-20179222223727720550
BAKKEN8-201731819901688727887
BAKKEN7-20173171568030101289639

The graphic:



The wells in the graphic:
  • 33338, 420, BR, Demicks Dodge 1A MBH-ULW, 62 stages; 10.4 million lbs, all mesh, t12/17; cum 279K 4/19;
  • 33339, 168, BR, Dodge 1B TFH, 63 stages, 14.7 million lbs, all mesh, t12/17; cum 214K 4/19;
  • 33337, 56 (no typo), BR, Dodge 2A TFH, 30 stages; 14.1 million lbs, mesh, almost all large, t1/18; cum 218K 4/19;
  • 32980, 116, BR, Dodge 2B MBH, 29 stages; 10.2 million lbs, all mesh, t1/18; cum 314K 4/19;
  • 32976, 55, BR, Dodge 3A TFH, 29 stages; 14.2 million lbs, almost all large white, t1/18; cum 276K 4/19;
  • 32977, 30, BR, Dodge 3B MBH, 29 stages; 10.1 million lbs, almost all large white, t1/18; cum 251K 4/19;
  • 32978, 10 (no typo), BR, Dodge 3C TFH, 28 stages, 10.2 million lbs, all mesh, t1/18; cum 324K 4/19;
  • 32979, 32, BR, Dodge 3D MBH, 32 stages; 14.2 million lbs, almost all large white, t1/18; cum 105K 9/18;
  • 33873, 0 (no typo), BR, Olson 1A MBH, Edge, t4/18; cum249K 4/19; Edge oil field is to the north of Dimmick Lake oil field;
#17200, this well was not re-fracked: see this post; huge jump in production.

#16791: has not been re-fracked; one-fourth of a mile west of the nearest "Dodge" well; huge jump in production; see this post.