Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Update On Vaca Muerta -- December 4, 2018

Another reason why I love to blog. Because of the blog, I know a little bit about the Vaca Muerta; it's tracked here through a link at the sidebar at the right. The Bakken, at 1.3 million bopd, also puts the production goal in the graphic below in perspective:

North Dakota wells, including legacy wells going back decades, currently average just under 100 bbls/well/day. This includes a lot of old legacy wells which produce very, very little.

But let's use the 100 bbs/well/day as a starting point.

60,000 bopd / 100bbls = 600 wells.

$2.3 billion / 600 wells = $4 million / well.

If these are all new wells with production that average much better than 100 bbs / well, then significantly fewer wells and higher cost per well.

Coming at the data from a different direction, if each well costs about $10 million, then we have 230 wells, or 260 bopd per well, which seems about right considering these would be "new" wells producing at the high end of production prior to the typical tight oil decline rate setting in.

Regardless, 60,000 bopd is literally a drop in the bucket compared to global production / demand of 100 million bopd.

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