Wednesday, December 12, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+37 -- December 12, 2018

The weekly US petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil inventories: decreased by a miserable 1.2 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: 442 million bbls; hardly any sign of re-balancing
  • WTI: up slightly, at $52.48, after report released
  • refineries operating at 95% capacity; unchanged
  • both gasoline and distillate production pretty much unchanged from previous week, but both are about 0.5 million bbls/day more than historic norm of 10 million bbls and 5 million bbls respectively
  • total products supplies averaged about 21 million bbls/day; up almost 6% over same four-week period last year
  • jet fuel remains the outlier with production 3% more than comparable four-year period last year
  • overall, a very, very uninteresting report
  • gasoline demand: see below
Re-balancing spreadsheet: the ups and downs of the past four weeks (since I started tracing this again) works out to a delta of .... drum roll ... exactly 0.00 million bbls change in the US crude oil inventory. At this rate, there will never be any re-balancing.

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.90
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.50
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.20
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 208
-1.2
442.00
Never







Average: 0.0



By the way, take a look at operating capacity of refineries, and then take look at today's RBN Energy blog on what refineries will need to do to meet IMO 2020 mandates.

Gasoline demand, link here


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