Wednesday, November 28, 2018

WTI Slumps (Again) -- Now, Just 22 Cents Above $50/Bbl -- November 28, 2018; Peak Oil? Probably Not

Apparently it took a couple of hours to sink in, the weekly data released earlier today, but now traders have had a chance to look at this data:
Initially, the price of WTI didn't show much change, but now, near the close of the trading day, WTI is down 2.6%; down $1.34; and, now just 22 cents above $50/bbl.

We could see WTI going below $50 by the end of the week. From there ... ?

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Or maybe the slump in WTI was due to yet another report of more oil. Peak oil? I don't think so.  From Platts:
  • Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
  • production to peak at 80,000 beopd
  • development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.

The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boepd in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.

750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.

I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."

And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."


One day later, November 29, 2018, this update from Bloomberg regarding the Mexico story above:
Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
  • the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
  • the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
  • the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
  • development costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40 wells = $36,750,000 / well 
  • this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
  • Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
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