November 14, 2018: either no one caught it or no one bothered to report it but there's no way the US is going to be producing 50 million bopd by 2025 -- see WSJ headline below. This is the correct headline:
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.Note: that was back in 2011.
Imagine that: " ... as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015."
10 million bbl/day shortage. What were they smoking? Whatever it was, it probably wasn't even legal.
Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2025.
Fast forward to November 13, 2018.
From The WSJ today: the IEA predicts that the US will produce half of global oil and natural gas output by 2025 -- that could happen under President Trump's second term. IEA says growth in American production will be primarily driven by fracking.
That in bold/red is a "cut/paste" from the WSJ. Here's the screenshot.
Memo to self: notes to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.
From the linked article:
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s.
“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations on energy trends. “By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States.”The article is archived.
Key point in that WSJ article was not mentioned. Saudi Arabia will be a net importer oil oil by 2040.
Saudi's foreign exchange reserves as of September, 2018, most recent available: