Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Iran's Worse Nightmare -- Oilprice -- October 30, 2018

The sanctions go into full effect next weekend, Sunday, November 4, 2018.

From oilprice.com, some comments and data points:
  • it is clear that President Trump is serious about these Iranian sanctions
  • when oil was trending toward $100 a few weeks ago, pundits said that Trump has gone too far; his sanctions would result in $100-oil or worse
  • in fact, WTI is now trending toward $65 oil
  • worse, the IEA and others are now forecasting a downtown in economic growth and a slowdown in oil growth demand going forward (for calendar year, 2019)
  • Trump stuck to his horses, despite $100-oil talk, and Trump was "right" again (no pun intended)
  • with the Khashoggi overhang, Saudi Arabia could be in deeper trouble than it was a few years ago: the price of oil has dropped well below $80 (Brent/OPEC basket) and investors are wary of photo ops with MbS

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