Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Opening remarks: I've been investing as a small investor since 1984. There have been some rough patches and I've "left a lot of money on the table," as they say. Ope! But in the big scheme of things, I've loved it; I've learned a lot; it kept me "involved"; and, I will leave the granddaughters a portfolio with which they should have some fun. I don't think I've ever seen a more exciting market and it's exciting for several reasons:
- a tectonic change in thinking in the White House
- millennials
- technology
- "open book" test every day -- so much information available
- numerous trading vehicles and instruments
- instantaneous trades
- tax changes favoring investors
- commissions on trades are going to zero (which, by the way, will have big implications for at least two well-known discount brokers)
- energy
- US will be a net exporter of energy this next century while the rest of the world, for the most part, will be net energy importers
Fast and furious: the movie I'm watching --
- rabbit holes and Ope! --
- end of driving season, and the price of gasoline in our area has not dropped; if anything it has increased a bit
- supposedly, on threats from Trump, Saudi has increased oil exports to the US; link here;
- apparently the EIA did not get the memo; link here;
- Canadian crude prices plunge again; link here;
- Dow, irrelevant, looks to open over 100 points higher
- WTI: holding, maybe up a little bit
- dead cat bounce? Maybe not. Last week I noted that Tesla was selling 10x the number of EVs as its nearest competitor; then Motley Fool noted it; today, I see TSLA should open higher
- near billion-dollar sale
- on the New Mexico side of the Permian Basin
- $95,001 / acre
- federal government auction
- a record high for North America's biggest oil field
- previous record: $40,001
- for newbies: there's a reason the bid ends in a single dollar
- two-day auction: 142 parcels
- raised almost one billion dollalrs
- total was more than the whole of 2017 and double the 2008 record
- Federal Abstract Co, Santa Fe, bids for a number of anonymous investors -- the record bidder -- a near-$400-million for 17 tracts
- the logical buyers: EOG, Devon, Exxon, and Chevron
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Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today --
Monday, September 10, 2018
- 34632, 3,395, MRO, Lars 14-8H, Killdeer, 4 sections, 45 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t8/18; cum --
- 33521, 1,210, Enerplus, Vinson 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, 39 stages; 9 million lbs, t3/18; cum 65K 7/18;
- 33846, 3,642, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HG, Mandaree, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t8/18; cum --
- 32132, 1,104, CLR, Burr Federal 5-26H, Sanish, two sections, t7/18; cum 11K 8/18; constrained; no frack data; not fracked yet? FracFocus shows a one-day frack (7/29/2018)
- 33522, 289, Enerplus, Evans 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest,, 40 stages; 9.6 million lbs; t3/18; 72K 7/18;
- 33520, 315, Enerplus, Blanc 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest, 36 stages; 8.5 million lbs, t3/18; cum 99K 7/18;
- 32963, 867, Oasis, Ceynar 5198 12-5 6B, Banks, 50 stages; 9.9 million lbs, t3/18; cum 141K 7/18; the Ceynar wells are tracked here; #32963:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2018 | 35587 | 94696 |
| 6-2018 | 26368 | 59803 |
| 5-2018 | 35941 | 86232 |
| 4-2018 | 32242 | 46343 |
| 3-2018 | 11110 | 19599 |
Active rigs:
| $68.24↑ | 9/10/2018 | 09/10/2017 | 09/10/2016 | 09/10/2015 | 09/10/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 66 | 55 | 37 | 70 | 199 |
RBN Energy: local frack sand spreads to Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK.
The push to develop local sources of frac sand — and significantly reduce well-completion costs in the process — started in the Permian Basin, but it didn’t end there. A number of new sand mines are being opened and developed in the Eagle Ford in South Texas, and there are early signs the same is happening in the SCOOP/STACK in Oklahoma. With local sand eliminating the need for rail deliveries and rail-to-truck transloading terminals, sand and logistics companies are streamlining the delivery and management of frac sand by providing integrated mine-to-well-site proppant services. Today, we discuss recent developments on the frac sand front and what they mean for exploration and production companies in key plays.
Frac sand plays a critically important role in the Shale Era. Hydrocarbon production in shale and tight-oil plays is founded on a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Frac fluids and proppant (now primarily natural sand, but also a bit of ceramics and resin-coated sand), when forced out of the horizontal portion of wells at high pressure, fractures openings in the surrounding shale. When the pressure is released, the fractures attempt to close but the proppant contained in the fluids keeps them open, making a ready path for oil, gas and NGLs to flow into the well bore.
The significance of natural frac sand accessibility and cost has only increased in the past two years as E&Ps have ratcheted up their drilling activity, the volume of sand they use in each well completion as they have moved to slickwater designs and their efforts to rein in drilling and completion costs — and thereby trim their break-even prices and improve their bottom lines. We’ve discussed the frac sand issue in a number of blogs, beginning with our “Wipe Out!” series. Earlier we noted that the trends toward longer and longer laterals and higher-intensity completions are goosing efficiency and profitability and driving increased sand use. Later, we discussed the evolution of frac sand use, including shifts in the types of sand that were traditionally preferred and in the volume of sand being used in each well. Most recently we zeroed in on trends in frac sand demand and pricing, and on the development of regional and local frac sand mines (mostly in and around the Permian) to reduce transportation costs. We also put rising frac sand costs into an economic context, concluding that while those costs are a concern, they are usually outweighed by the oil-and-gas production gains (and resulting higher revenue) that result from using more sand. (That’s especially true lately, with crude oil prices north of $65/bbl.)
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