Monday, June 11, 2018

Will US Approve ATT - Time Warner Merger? Poll -- June 11, 2018

We should know by close of business tomorrow, Tuesday, June 12, 2018 if North Korea denuclearizes -- just kidding. We should know by close of business tomorrow if the US government approves the ATT - Time Warner merger.

Poll at sidebar at the right.

Flash poll: less than 24 hours to vote.

T shares were up 1% today in a market that almost went negative; T was slightly positive after hours.

Same with Time Warner (TMX) shares: up just less than 1% on an otherwise flat day for the market, and up minimally after hours.

The "green" would suggest the word is out.

But that doesn't mean the deal is approved or not.

Many shareholders don't want the deal to go foward, and thus that would explain the "green."

Many shareholders want the deal to go forward, and thus that, too, would explain the "green."

See what Time Warner owns, link to wiki.

The Singapore Summit

This is pretty cool. Singapore is exactly halfway around the world from NYC. In NYC it is now about 8:15 p.m., (Monday, June, 11, 2018).

In Singapore, it is now about 8:15 a.m. (Tuesday, June 12, 2018). The sun has been up for a couple of hours in Singapore. Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump are probably getting last minute instructions, probably getting ready to get into their limousines. I assume top story at 9:00 a.m. Singapore time will be which one has arrived stylishly late

I think their meeting is scheduled to begin at 9:00 a.m. ST / 9:00 p.m. EDT.

If Trump arrives first, he should pull out a laptop and tweet a few tweets for the international news media to record. If Kim is really late, Trump could sit down with a few journalists for an off-the-record ("wink-wink") talk. In college, full professors got 15 minutes before students were allowed to leave. For world leaders, maybe 30 minutes. If Kim hasn't shown up by then, maybe time for Trump to head to his plane.

It might get a clue to how things are going by watching overnight futures; also watching to see if T or TWX) make the top ten list of what's moving the pre-market (same link).
  • 8:00 p.m. EDT: the Dow is up 7.00 points
  • 9:23 p.m. EDT: after turning negative for a short period, the Dow is green, up 11 points; the S&P is up 0.75 points 
  • 11:09 p.m. EDT: the Dow is now up 17 points, and the S&P is up 1.5 points
  • 7:30 a.m. EDT, June 12, 2018: reversed overnight; S&P down 3 points; T not on the top ten list of stocks moving the pre-market; in pre-market, T is up 0.6%; TWX is not popping up in pre-market trading 
  • 8:30 a.m. EDT, June 12, 2018: S&P down 0.75 (much improved); T is now up more than 1%; TWX is now up 0.26% pre-market; has the word gotten out?
Who Has The Most To Lose

I think this is a make or break moment for North Korea. I don't think he has a nuclear program any more. It was destroyed when the mountain collapsed. Remember when the Soviet Empire collapsed? The entire US intelligence community agreed, in hindsight, the USSR was a paper tiger.

My hunch: Trump will bend over backwards (but not bow) as they say to "help" this young dictator make the right decision. But Trump won't give him a second chance.

But tomorrow won't be the day. It will "be the beginning of a long process."

At best, behind closed doors, but not announced, Trump will give Kim Jong Un his word that the US will not attack NK first, in effect ending the Korean War if Kim wants to end it.

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