Monday, June 25, 2018

June 25, 2018 -- Morning Note

Kraft-Heinz: Campbell Soup shares surge after reports that Kraft Heinz Co might buy Campbell Soup. Knowing that Warren Buffett owns Kraft Heinz this rumor, if true, speaks volumes. It is exactly the kind of deal one expects from Buffett. He understands soup. Apple was a bit more complicated to understand.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Back to the Bakken
MarketRealist has a huge report on Whiting. Link here -- data points --
  • 1Q18: production
    • Williston Basin: 103,100 boepd (81% of company's total production)
    • total production: 127,100 boepd
  • 1Q18: wells
    • drilled 24 in the Bakken; drilled none in it Redtail, DJ Basin, play
    • put 19 wells into production in the Bakken; six into production in the DJ Basin
    • future
  • focusing on the Bakken
    • may sell its Redtail assets
  • capex budget of $600 million
  • Williston basin production is forecast to increase 14% year-over-year
  • efficiencies discussed at the link
    • CLR and WLL down to 8 - 10 days to reach TD after spud
  • completion costs
    • 2014: $9.1 billion
    • 2018: $6.8 billion
  • New:
    • DAPL a "game-changer"
    • it's the best destination to send crude from North Dakota
    • it gets to Texas and then goes to the LLS crude oil markets, which trade closer to the Brent
    • North Dakota's total production is about 1.2 million bopd and the pipeline by itself carries 1.4 million bopd
Much, much more at the link.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs65583076193

RBN Energy: a new reporting tying US natural gas and global LNG markets.
As U.S. LNG exports play an increasing role in the global market, the U.S. will not only be exporting its vast natural gas supplies but also to a degree its market realities — namely, the risks, opportunities and, at times, volatility of a highly liquid, fungible and economically-driven spot market.
The global LNG market also has shifted toward more flexible and spot-oriented trade, opening the window for some ad lib wheeling and dealing based on the prevailing economic conditions at any given time. These two factors together will come with significant implications across the supply chain — from the producing basins to the pipeline transport routes and from the export terminals to the destination markets they are serving. This month, with feedgas receipts at Sabine Pass LNG down and an explosion on a key supply route from Appalachia to Louisiana, we are starting to see how this integration of the U.S. and global markets is likely to play out.
To help you keep up with this complicated dynamic and extrapolate the big-picture impacts, today we introduce RBN’s new LNG Voyager Report, featuring a comprehensive, pipe-to-port-to-destination approach to understanding how U.S. LNG fits into the global market.
For years, we’ve been talking about the looming impact of U.S. exports on global LNG markets, and at the same time, contemplating what those exports will mean for the markets here, in North America.
Now, that’s a reality. In the past three years, U.S. LNG exports have gone from being non-existent to an average of 3.0 Bcf/d. In that time, the new demand source — currently from just five liquefaction trains, four at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG (SPL) in Cameron Parish, LA, and one at Dominion’s Cove Point LNG in Maryland — already has reconfigured pipeline flows all the way from the Northeast and Midwest to the Gulf Coast, as Appalachian and other gas suppliers look for ways to get their gas south, where the lion’s share of the export demand is happening. In fact, gas flows along entire corridors of pipeline routes that used to flow south-to-north have flipped direction and are flowing gas north-to-south.

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