A big "thank you" to Don for noting this forecast had been released. I've lost a bit of interest in the forecast:
- it seems not to correlate well with what actually transpires
- we seem to be stuck in a 0.5 to 2.5% growth cycle; fairly unexciting (yes, I know for Steve Liesman, that's a huge spread, but for the rest of us, just another data point)
- if it goes negative, it gets interesting really, really fast
- it would have to go well above 3% to get me excited
Regardless,
here's the forecast, for 1Q18: 2.0% -- April 17, 2018
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.0 percent
on April 17, up from 1.9 percent on April 16.
Small increases in the
nowcasts of real consumer spending growth, real nonresidential
structures investment growth, and real inventory investment after this
morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board
more than offset a slight decrease in the nowcast of real residential
investment growth after this morning's new residential construction
release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
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