Baked in: since about mid-2017 the talking heads and their guests over at CNBC have consistently talked about three things: a) the synchronized global economy; b) the "fact" that share prices were "baked in" before the tax bill was passed (most, including me, did not even think the tax bill would pass); and, c) the 5% (or worse) correction that was "just around the corner."
NAFTA: yesterday, after several days of the Dow setting new records, the Dow dropped ... drum roll ... 17 points (0.07%) ... and Reuters suggested it was due to worries about NAFTA. I guess those worries dissipated overnight. The Dow surges again today, now up 100 points.
Coal: I have no dog in this fight, and I really don't care, but all things being equal, I did not care for Rick Perry's plan to "subsidize" the coal industry. However, when a Bloomberg writer calls that plan a "cockamamie" plan, I wonder how that Bloomberg writer would feel about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And the cotton reserve. And the helium reserve. And the tungsten reserve. Okay, I might have made up some of those reserves. [For the record: I think this is the first time I've used the word "cockamamie" in this blog.]
NYSE: despite a full year of ever-rising share prices on all major indices, again, today, there are
Same ol', same ol': from Platts --
Lijla Villar, an analyst with the EIA's international energy team, said her agency also predicts a fall in production from Venezuela, along with OPEC's African members, which would temper any output increases from other members.
She added that there was "significant risk" that production could decline more than forecast in Nigeria and Libya, both of whom face constant threats of internal strife.
Libyan production averaged 980,000 b/d in December, according to the Platts OPEC survey. S&P Global Platts Analytics said Libya is unlikely to produce much more than 1 million b/d, "given technical and economic constraints, making production risks significantly greater to the downside."
Nigeria, meanwhile, has faced sporadic disruptions to its oil infrastructure that many analysts say likely will continue in 2018, particularly as a contentious general election approaches in February 2019.
"Niger Delta militias will align with rival politicians during the 2018 campaign season," Rapidan Energy said. "Attacks will focus mainly on political targets, but occasional disruptions of up to 100,000 b/d are possible."
Iran could be another downside risk, as US President Donald Trump on Friday is expected to decide whether to continue waiving sanctions on Iran's oil sector under the nuclear deal.
Analysts are divided on the prospects of Trump reimposing sanctions, which would likely take some time to implement and could be blunted by a lack of cooperation by European and Asian countries. But as much as 1 million b/d of Iranian crude exports could be impacted if the nuclear deal is scrapped.Tesla: this is a great article from Bloomberg that brings us all up to date on Tesla's roll out of Model 3.
- 2016: Elon Musk moved up the roll out date; Tesla would build 500,000 cars annually by the end of 2018, rather than 2020
- Elon Musk expected to make 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3 sedans in the second half of 2017
- Tesla made a total of 101,000 cars in 2017
- Tesla delivered only 1,770 Model 3 sedans in 2H17
- in August, 2017, Tesla said it expected to achieve a manufacturing rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles a week by the end of the year; in November, 2017, the company backpedaled, saying it would hit 5,000 units a week in late March, 2018
- Bloomberg: unlikely that 500,000 cars will be delivered in 2018
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