Thursday, January 18, 2018

The Bakken Hype? Don't Believe It -- Jane Nielson -- Flashback -- January 18, 2018

Bakken oil hype, Jane Nielson, link here, June 25, 2010. She's never updated that post, as far as I know.

Reality: US February shale output expected to rise to 6.55 million bopd -- EIA.
The agency expects oil production from new wells to grow in each of seven major regions. The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico accounts for the bulk of the production increase year-on-year, the data showed. At the same time, production growth in the Bakken formation of North Dakota is seen slower than a year earlier.
Eagle Ford oil output is expected to rise by 15,000 bpd to 1.27 million bpd, while Bakken output is set to rise by 8,500 bpd to 1.22 million bpd, the agency said in a monthly report.
US oil production around 10 million bopd; shale oil at 6.55 million bopd would mean shale oil contributes more than 60% of total US crude oil production.

We won't know the February, 2018, North Dakota crude oil output until April, 2018. So, looking back at the April, 2017, Director's Cut, oil production:
  • January, 2017: 981,380 bopd
  • February, 2017: 1,034,168 bopd (preliminary)
  • The February, 2017, data was "finalized" the following month and came in at: 1,034,248 bopd
Weather-wise, February is the toughest month to drill in North Dakota. Everybody takes off for Valentine's Day.

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