Friday, December 22, 2017

Update -- Alpine High -- December 22, 2017

This was the original post, a little over a year ago:
Link here.
Apache Corp.  said it has discovered the equivalent of at least two billion barrels of oil in a new west Texas field that has the promise to become one of the biggest energy finds of the past decade.
So, what's new in Alpine High?

National Gas Intel, October 10, 2017:
Apache Corp. has mapped out thousands more Alpine High drilling locations in West Texas since unveiling the Permian Basin play a year ago, and while wet gas remains the No. 1 target, dry natural gas and oil targets continue to emerge.
The play appears to be better than even Apache first expected with three distinct hydrocarbon pay zones -- wet gas, dry gas and oil. The dry gas economics now appear to favorably compete with the Marcellus Shale, while the wet gas economics size up to Oklahoma’s best stacked reservoirs. And the oil prospects? Those are just beginning to be understood. 
Today Alpine High’s net production from 34 wells is 101 MMcf/d of gas, 1,425 b/d of oil and 2,025 b/d of natural gas liquids (NGL). By year’s end, net volumes from 42 producing wells are expected to grow to 125 MMcf/d of gas, 1,900 b/d of oil and 3,000 b/d of NGLs.
“The Alpine High is truly unique. It contains an unprecedented vertical hydrocarbon column of 4,000 to 5,000-plus feet with five discrete hydrocarbon-bearing formations—the Woodford, Barnett, Penn, Wolfcamp and Bone Springs—each with multiple target zones,” Apache CEO John Christmann said in the presentation.
The Houston-based company revealed the Delaware Basin discovery, which is the same geologic age as the Arkoma Woodford and Scoop/Stack, in September 2016. Since then, Apache’s 307,000 net-acre Alpine High position has grown to 366,000. 
Reuters, December 15, 2017: Apache's latest expansion plan shows US shale far from peaking.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week lifted its projection for total 2018 U.S. crude production to 10.02 million barrels per day. That would be up sharply from projected 2017 production of 9.2 million bpd. Higher-than-expected production from the United States and elsewhere has prompted OPEC and other producing countries to extend output cuts in an attempt to reduce a global glut.
Unlike other parts of the Permian, which contains rocks rich in crude oil, some of Alpine High’s geology predominantly contains types of natural gas. But as Apache drills more wells, it will collect more data that it can use to update its reserve estimates for Alpine High.
Apache’s initial tests last year showed Alpine High contained at least 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 3 billion barrels of oil - enough to satisfy U.S. oil demand for almost half a year - in a western part of the Permian in the far west of Texas.
Now this from the Reuters' article. Put this in context: Oasis paid $50,000/acre in the same basin.
Apache bought the land on the cheap during the oil price downturn of 2015 and 2016, paying an average of $1,300 an acre at a time when some parcels elsewhere in the Permian sold for more than $30,000 an acre

About That "Decreased Conventional Discoveries" -- A Bit Of Perspective -- December 22, 2017

Updates

May 27, 2019: update on conventional -- high-impact -- exploration.

February 1, 2018: Richard Zeits talks about ten million bopd.

February 1, 2018: Chevron has best year for new oil discoveries since 2011.

December 28, 2017: Bloomberg repeats the gloom and doom story.

December 26, 2017: from Yahoo!Finance:


Original Post 

The other day I linked a story sent to me by a reader about conventional oil discoveries. At the time I said I did not "like" such stories but posted it for the archives. This was the story:
The oil industry discovered the least amount of oil in 2017 in almost eight decades, breaking the previous record low set in 2016.
The global oil industry has discovered less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent so far this year—a drop-off from the 8 billion boe discovered last year. Last year’s total was the lowest since the 1940s. The 2017 figure is down by more than half from the 15 billion boe discovered in 2014-2015, and down sharply from the 30 billion boe discovered in 2012.
The plunge is the result of a third consecutive year of relatively low upstream exploration budgets. So many oil companies slashed their spending on exploration when the market downturn began in 2014, and they have yet to restore that spending to anything close to pre-2014 levels.
The problem with these articles: the writer does not put this into perspective. 

Here's a little bit of perspective from April 27, 2017:
This story has been told several times in several places over the past few days. I have not posted the story nor linked the story until now. There were several reasons why I did not post/link it.

But now, with this graph, perfect for posting:


I think the graph would have been even more "effective" had they drawn the x-axis to 75 billion bbls to accurately capture the 60-billion-bar for 2009. Folks are concerned that low discovery rate in past two years will mean severe supply/demand imbalance sooner (2018) than later (?).

Maybe, maybe not. But when I see the graph above, and note the 2009 bar, as well as the 2012 and 2014 bars, my hunch is it will take a few years to work that off, as well as the three billion bbls of crude oil now being stored globally.
These are discoveries, not production.

In 2007, the North Dakota Bakken boom began.

The Bakken reached its stride in 2010 - 2012. Even through 2014 significant discoveries were being made.

I don''t know when Big Oil will increase CAPEX to explore for new conventional basins/fields, but my hunch is there is no hurry. Had the bar in the graph above not been truncated, it would have stretched off the graph, into the paragraph above.

MRO Reports A Record DUC; Re-Fracks A Neighboring Well -- December 22, 2017

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to  the source.

Why I love to blog and never get tired of the Bakken. I'm always surprised: I thought this was going to simply be a "same-old, same-old" post. And then, surprise, surprise. In addition to a "record" (or "near-record) IP being reported, look at this (down below): an existing well was re-fracked at the same time the DUC was completed. And it was a Marathon well. Marathon took the lead in a re-frack program and it looks they are trying something different. Wow, I simply love it. It seems every operator is "bringing something different to the Bakken table."

*************************************
The DUC

Reported today, this DUC:
  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --
That's a huge IP for oil; 6,278. It may be a record IP for crude oil alone (see below). For BOE, is it a record?
  • IP oil: 6,278 (oil only; this may be a Bakken record)
  • IP mcf: 6,989 = 1,164 boe
  • IP total boe: 7,442 boepd
So, nope it's not a record but it's certainly very close. Note: I have not captured every IP of every well in the Bakken so I may have missed the record well, but does it really matter? Whether this well set a record or not, it's a huge well. See graphic below for the location of this well.

************************************
IP FAQs

From FAQs, question #9: What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? This is just a small piece of the answer; go to the link for the full answer.
From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.
From a November 11, 2014, post (see also the November 25, 2014, post, same subject); The first well, in the Middle Bakken formation, was completed with 94 stages and was flowing 7,120 BOE/d on October 10, 2014, according to the operator. When the well was completed, it established a world record for number of stages in a single well.
Soon after, an offset well in the Upper Three Forks formation was completed with 104 stages. This well was flowing 7,824 BOE/d on October 11, 2014. This was a hybrid completion comprising 97 NCS GripShift cemented casing sleeves, with seven NCS BallShift cemented ball-drop sleeves in the lower section of the well. In both wells, all stages were successfully fractured
Statoil reported an IP of 5,387 on July 19, 2013: #23387, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks oil field. This might be a new record (this is the IP for crude oil only). 
**************************************
The Graphic

 This is the daughter well:
  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --
This is the parent well:
  • 19144, 952, MRO, TAT USA 34-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/11; cum 337K 10/17; 
    • second frack: 11/3/17; 7 stages, 1.44 million lbs; IP after this second frack: 1,675 crude oil 1,793 mcf
    • first frack: 2/25/11; 20 stages, 2.8 million lbs
    • FracFocus: shows two fracks (as above); API: 33-053-03182

Note: there is a problem with the graphic above. With regard to the 6-well pad in the lower left of the graphic: there are seven horizontal legs emanating from the pad. I could not identify the 7th permit/file number. I could only identify six (as shown).
  • 30134, SI/NC, MRO, Rough Coulee USA 24-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 30135, SI/NC, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 30131, SI/NC, MRO, Blue Creek USA 24-22TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 30488, SI/NC, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 30133, SI/NC, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 33290, SI/NC, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,


  • 32972, conf, MRO, LaMarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 32971, conf, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 32970, conf, MRO, Loren USA 14-23TFH, Antelope, no production data,

  • 32891, SI/NC, MRO, Begola USA 34-22H, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 32890, SI/NC, MRO, Murphy USA 34-22TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 32889, SI/NC, MRO, Lockwood USA 44-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, no production data,
  • 32888, see above
Production of #19144 (will be updated in a few months):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-20170000000
SANISH9-20170000000
SANISH8-20170000000
SANISH7-20173120225511948136
SANISH6-20173024112485536277801941
SANISH5-201731248725105202887152014
SANISH4-201730257825654872863211987
SANISH3-20172722482259452250821772
SANISH2-201728246324604742760331941

Cleaning Out The In-Box -- December 22, 2017

Updates

January 18, 2018: North Dakota department of tourism won't comment on proposed refinery in southwestern North Dakota.
Commerce Commissioner Jay Schuler, whose department includes both economic development and tourism, said Wednesday he supports the Davis Refinery and doesn’t believe the project will deter people from visiting the national park.
“We support the economic development. It’s up to the local officials, the zoning and it’s the health department as far as what they come up with,” Schuler said.
Don sent me the link. In an e-mail reply from me I wrote:
That's incredibly important for the refinery developers.
If the ND tourism board is not worried, my hunch is that will be the "cover" needed for the regulators to say "ok" to the refinery.
The regulators will probably mandate some stuff like planting a forest around the refinery to block the view of the refinery and turn off the lights when the park has a 4th of July fireworks display.
Original Post

Electricity (how's that renewable energy working out)?
Trump tax cutsAustralia: afraid that their country won't be able to compete with the US following the Trump tax cuts.

Shale and BP CEO: justifies why his company is not going to join XOM, Shell, COP others in going after shale. If blocked by paywall, google: BP chief says shale will have limited effect on global oil market.
  • November 28, 2017: Shell (RDS) embraces shale
  • September 12, 2012: Shell acuires Permian acreage from Chesapeake. The acquisition covers 618,000 net acres in the Permian Basin in West Texas that currently produces some 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and has significant growth potential. 
  • regular readers know the shell story vis-a-vis XOM and COP
Good eyesight: Davis refinery in Belfield, ND, area to begin construction in early 2018. The refinery is 3.5 miles from the nearest point to the national park. Environmentalists say they will be able to see the refinery from the park. Good eyesight.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.3512/22/201712/22/201612/22/201512/22/201412/22/2013
Active Rigs534165174191

Two new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
Thirteen permits renewed:
  • CLR (4): four Polk Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Thunderbird Resources (2): one Franks Creek Federal permit and one Lower Thirty Federal permit, both in Billings County
  • Hunt (2): two Palermo MCNIC permits in Mountrail County
  • Statoil (2): two Olson permits in Williams County
  • EOG (2): two Parshall permits in Mountrail County
  • Murex: one Sophia Drake permit in Mountrail County 
One producing well completed:
  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --

Update On Forties Pipeline -- Amazing What "They" Can Do -- December 22, 2017

On December 11, 2017, I posted:
WTI jumped  a bit today on news that a major Brent oil pipeline will be taken off-line for three weeks for repairs. This is a a one-time event which may or may not amount to anything.
Today, this story: Forties Pipeline system repairs scheduled to complete by Christmas, over at Rigzone.
A controlled shutdown of the FPS was implemented on December 11, after a hairline crack was found in the system at Red Moss, south of Aberdeen.
The company expects to bring the pipeline progressively back to normal rates early in the new year and has already initiated the planning phase necessary to begin recommissioning the system.
Let's see: December 11 plus 21 days = January 1, 2018. It looks like they beat the deadline by about a week.

The Williston Wire -- December 22, 2017

New organic salon opens in downtown Williston, the Lila Salon and Boutique.

STAR fund awards up to $65,000 for G-Style Transport expansion.
The Williston City Commission has awarded up to $65,000 to help a local truck company expand. The Williston STAR Fund grant combined with a two-to-one match from the Bank of North Dakota will help G-Style purchase the $1.43 million building it is currently leasing. The family-owned company, which started in 2004, expects to more than double its workforce over the next two years. Currently, G-Style Transport has more than 50 employees. G-Style transports drill cuttings, drilling waste fluid, aggregate, fresh water, production water, equipment and much more.

The Political Page, T+335 -- , December 22, 2017

Without question, the GOP tax bill is worthy of its own blog. I'm not going to do that, but this is the biggest tax cut/reform act in the history of the United States. The Wall Street Journal, today, seemed to contain a story on the tax bill on literally every page. Most of the pieces on the op-ed pages were dedicated to the tax bill.

I doubt there are (m)any presidents that would react to the mainstream media in such a way that he would call an impromptu bill signing "ceremony" to sign such an incredible bill.

Interestingly enough, he used the opportunity to talk about a lot of US successes in the past year that the mainstream media is not talking about.

As I was listening/watching the bill-signing ceremony, this is the vision that kept flashing in front of me:



************************************

RBN Energy Takes A Deep Look At ISO New England -- Great Article -- December 22, 2017

Active rigs:

$58.0612/22/201712/22/201612/22/201512/22/201412/22/2013
Active Rigs524165174191

RBN Energy: gas-fired power generation in New England this winter and next.
This winter will be the last go-round for ISO New England’s Winter Reliability Program, under which the electric-grid operator in the natural gas pipeline-challenged region provides financial incentives to dual-fuel power plants if they stockpile fuel oil or LNG as a backup fuel. This coming spring, a long-planned “pay-for-performance” regime will go into effect, and gas-fired generators that can’t meet their commitments to provide power during high-demand periods — such as the polar vortex cold snaps that hit the Northeast in early 2014 — will pay potentially significant penalties. Today, we discuss the pitfalls that the pipeline capacity-challenged region may encounter as its power sector becomes increasingly gas-dependent.
Bostonians and other New Englanders pride themselves on their winter hardiness. They scoff at doomsday nor’easter forecasts from the Weather Channel. They think nothing of putting on five layers of L.L. Bean clothing to watch Tom Brady and the Patriots play in subzero temperatures at Gillette Stadium. They’ve even perfected the practice of saving the curbside parking space they just cleared of 20 inches of snow: it’s called the “parking chair” or “space saver” — usually an old plastic chair or Home Depot bucket that’s centered in the newly cleared space when they drive away so they have a nice place to park when they return from a quick run to Dunkin’ Donuts or Cumberland Farms. (Space saving is legal in most of Boston for up to 48 hours during a snow emergency.)
Great article. Will be archived.

Thorvald/Cuskelly Wells? Random Note: It Appears EOG's School 1-16H In Parshall Oil Field Is Back On-Line -- December 22, 2017

Updates

December 11, 2018: production profiles for two new Cuskelly wells at this post.

Original Post

A reader wants to know if:
.... anyone has any information on the Cuskelly/Thorvald wells that were just drilled in Rattlesnake Point. Two of them are still listed as LOC. 
I assume that since two of these wells are SI/NC, the two that have just been drilled are also SI/NC.

See this post.

I assume these are the Thorvald/Cuskelly wells being talked about:
  • 29711, IA/1,625, CLR, Cuskelly 4-7H1, Rattlesnake Point, 62 stages; 12.2 million lbs, t6/18; cum 111K 12/18; note: the sundry forms with frack data has this as a middle Bakken well; in fact, it's a Three Forks B1 well; a few months of production; then off line; remains off line 7/19;
  • 29710, 1,985, CLR, Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 12 million lbs, t9/18; cum 65K 7/19; note: the sundry forms with frack data has this as a Three Forks B1 well; in fact, it's a middle Bakken well; three months of production and then off line; back on line 6/19;
  • 29709, loc, CLR, Thorvald 5-6H2, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 29708, loc, CLR, Cuskelly 5-7H2, Rattlesnake Point,
The other Thorvald/Cuskelly wells:
  • 21283, 659, CLR, Thorvald 2-6H, runs north, t1/12; cum 311K 7/19;
  • 17451, 275, CLR, Thorvald 1-6H, runs north, t4/09; cum 254K 7/19; was off line 6/19; back on line 7/19;
  • 22203, 1,430, CLR, Cuskelly 2-7H, runs south, t3/14; cum 208K 7/19;
  • 17560, 376, CLR, Cuskelly 1-7H, runs south, t12/09; cum 243K 7/19;
Note production jump for #17560:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20185782114587010039620
BAKKEN5-2018318612859511270893379101023
BAKKEN4-20183098199794156601070310349354
BAKKEN3-201824939990242239298348982852
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018174539555486106100
BAKKEN12-2017319616771262140114010
BAKKEN11-2017309719261262134413440

*************************************
A Random Note: This EOG Well Seems To Be Back On Line

It appears this well is back on-line.
Posted back on September 24, 2017: 16846, EOG, off-line; a big well; activity in the area? nope, I don't see any reason for this well coming off line. Said to be IA with no explanation; now back on line as of 10/17; it has not produced much in the last couple of years and was shut in 1/17 - 9/17; its official status was IA but is now back on A status, and one on-line for one day in 10/17; full months in 2019 but very little production;
  • 16846, 1,721, EOG, School 1-16H, Parshall, t3/08; cum 430K 7/19; coming to an end; workover or re-frack needed; full month production generating only 100 bbls/month (5/19); only 46 bbls, 7/19;

Random Look At Three Charlson Oil Field Wells With Unexplained Jump In Production -- December 22, 2017

I think the point has been proven. It gets tedious doing this, but my OCD prevents me from ignoring this stuff.

Look at the recent production of three wells that were originally drilled some years ago. There is no evidence that these three wells have been refracked:

20342:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2017311443914496328219217019001
BAKKEN9-2017301267412004368216658016477
BAKKEN8-20174501690858618390
BAKKEN7-20173151755311460810878920
BAKKEN6-2017305032503240573026873220
BAKKEN5-20173150544857418896227176029
BAKKEN4-201730533756095278791852260

27918:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2017311241412686325518593018377
BAKKEN9-2017301236311797331018206018025
BAKKEN8-201733314721436386170
BAKKEN7-201731335331891487559753810
BAKKEN6-2017302986329412983828373197
BAKKEN5-201731274326181190495515193436
BAKKEN4-201730342134011363483048300

27208:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2017311560415618314327292027076
BAKKEN9-2017301461314131255223480023299
BAKKEN8-20173554914117401539940
BAKKEN7-20173157405789125230524303080
BAKKEN6-2017306092612913723063929954476
BAKKEN5-201731592656691350250681228812564
BAKKEN4-20173091929240141530501302920

This was posted back on October 5, 2017:
  • 30369, 1,613, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H, Charlson, t9/17; cum -- ; (20342, 27918, 27208)
Reader's observation: see comments. A reader noted that a huge amount of natural gas was produced in the older wells and was all flared for the last couple of months.

The graphic:




Random Look At High-Producing Wells In North Dakota -- October, 2017 Data -- Note: NDIC Error On Production

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. I often make simple arithmetic errors. Assumptions regarding royalty calculations are simply that, assumptions. They could be way, way off. 

In October, 2017, there were:
  • 97 wells that had runs of more than 30,000 bbls of crude oil for the month
  • 37 wells that had runs of more than 40,000 bbls of crude oil for the month
  • 15 wells that had runs of more than 50,000 bbls of crude oil for the month
Note: "production" vs "runs" in the data on these pages. I prefer to post "production" numbers, but if the well is on confidential status, we will only have "run" data. With wells on confidential we have no idea how many days the well was actually on-line and producing oil; it could be anywhere from one day to 31 days.

Wells that had runs greater than 60,000 bbls of crude oil in October:
  • 33398, conf, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, 83,607 bbls (runs)
  • 33381, conf, WPX, Mandan North 13-24HW, Reunion Bay, 75,779 bbls (runs)
  • 32830, 1,983, Enerplus, Smooth Green 152-94-18A-19H, Antelope, Sanish, 35 stages; 16.9 million lbs, 72,887 bbls (production)
  • 33345, 3,774, MRO, Lund 44-35H, Reunion Bay, 72,907 bbls (production)
  • 33347, 3,530, MRO, Houser 14-36H, Reunion Bay, 68,733 bbls (production)
  • 24532, 2,838, Petro-Hunt, Clear Creek 152-96-34A-3H, Clear Creek, 58,298 (production); see below
Almost 60,000:
  • 33325, 5,072, MRO, Chapman 31-15H, Bailey, 58,141 bbls (production)
  • 33346, 4,378, MRO, Harley 14-36TFH,  Reunion Bay, 56,009 bbls (production)
********************************
Royalties

#32830 is spaced at 1280 acres. A mineral own with ten acres ownership:
  • 72,887 bbls/1280 acres = 56.943 bbls
  • 56.943 bbls * 10 acres = 569.43 bbls
  • 569.43 bbls * $40/bbl =  $22,777
  • $22,777 * 18% royalty rate = $4,100 for the month for that one well
There are eight wells in that drilling unit:
    • 26988, 4,791 bbls; $270
    • 26989, 3,553 bbls; $200
    • 26990, 2,008 bbls; $113
    • 26737, shut-in; was producing 5,000 bbls/month as of 7/17; installed a gas lift in August, 2017; need to follow this up in two to three months;
    • 32849, 27,099 bbls; $1,519
    • 32832, 44,792 bbls; $2,520
    • 32831, 40,386 bbls; $2,272
    • 32830, 72,887 bbls (as noted above): $4,100
  • Total: $11,000 for the month of October
**********************************
Closer Look At #24532

 Update

January 13, 2018: yes, the production dat for 10/17 was originally in error -- corrected production:
 
24532, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20173012911368317321130020
BAKKEN10-20173112951350285334331270
BAKKEN9-20173013181185293335231430
BAKKEN8-20173113861389360370234860
BAKKEN7-20173114091615325371635040
BAKKEN6-201730134311543353442319340
BAKKEN5-201731154516203253894362850


Original Post
The well:
  • 24532, 2,838, Petro-Hunt, Clear Creek 152-96-34A-3H, Clear Creek, 58,298 (production); see below
Fracking history:
  • FracFocus: 8/30 - 31/2013
  • FracFocus: no report of any recent frack
  • sundry forms: no evidence of any re-frack
  • map: no neighboring wells show any recent fracking; no neighboring wells show any similar production increase; in fact, production in neighboring wells is generally quite poor
Conclusion: one wonders if production data for this well as reported for October, 2017, might be an error.


Recent production (note the jump from 1,500 bbls/month in 9/17 to almost 60,000 bbls in 10/17 :
NDIC File No: 24532     API No: 33-053-04649-00-00     CTB No: 124532
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/21/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 27-152-96     Footages: 264 FSL 1416 FEL     Latitude: 47.949356     Longitude: -102.946579
Current Operator: PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.
Current Well Name: CLEAR CREEK 152-96-34A-3H
Elevation(s): 2397 KB   2371 GR   2370 GL     Total Depth: 15670     Field: CLEAR CREEK
Spud Date(s):  7/5/2013
Casing String(s):  9.625" 1880'   7" 10865'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10865-15670     Comp: 9/21/2013     Status: AL     Date: 5/6/2014    Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 240538     Cum MCF Gas: 361893     Cum Water: 38385
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/22/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2838     IP MCF: 3416     IP Water: 837
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2017315829858353285334331270
BAKKEN9-20173013181185293335231430
BAKKEN8-20173113861389360370234860
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Canada's Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Crude Oil Pipeline Oversubscribed By 35% -- Platts -- December 22, 2017

Link here. Data points:
  • the pipeline will limit crude oil "nominations" by 35% in January, 2018
  • it will carry 65% of "nominated" values
  • January volumes are expected to be 265K bopd vs 310K bopd in December (numbers rounded)
  • the pipeline ships oil from Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge export terminal in Burnaby, BC, and on to the connected Puget Sound pipeline to Seattle-area refineries
This would be as good a time as any to google "Tom Steyer Trans Mountain."

But I digress.

I don't know if there is an easy source for historical data regarding percent of crude oil nominations shipped by any particular pipeline but this is not unusual. Just the back and forth of everyday crude oil pipeline shipments. But 65% does seem to be a bit on the low side.

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Natural Gas Liquids Primer Now Available 
For Free
From The DOE

By the way, a reader sent me this note:
The DOE just released a 45-page pdf, "Natural Gas Liquids Primer".

It is a fantastic piece that introduces the reader to what NGLs are and why they are important. Goes on to describe present and future Appalachian Basin resources, infrastructure, and potential.

Absolutely amazingly informative report that is best studied and retained for future reference. Just as the steel industry provided raw manufacturing material, buttressed by coal to generate cheap, abundant electricity, NGLs will provide cheap feedstock for manufacturing while the dry methane component will fuel - via CCGTs - the cheapest electricity anywhere.

Decades of upside potential in the Appalachian Basin region as well described in the DOE report.
One can access the natural gas liquids primer here.  Click on this link. Embedded on that page is a link to an introduction to the primer. Click on that and then in the bottom left hand corner is a PDF that can be downloaded. Let's see if "copy and paste" works:
I think it does.

Idle Chatter Regarding The Tax Bill -- December 22, 2017

Not-ready-for-prime-time e-mail to a reader yesterday:
Know who is going to make a killing on the new tax plan?

Warren Buffett.

This is where he excels.

When something this big shakes up the global investment market, he (and Munger and the rest of his team) will be scouring the new tax bill with regard to the companies they have on their "buy" list.
My hunch is that Warren Buffett will jump in sooner than later but due to the "rules," he won't disclose/we won't know until six months have passed. But my hunch is he is calling CEOs around the US asking how the tax bill will affect them.

But this is just like candy in a candy shop for Warren Buffett. Wow, he's going to have fun reading over the Christmas break.

I'll post this later; I hope Becky Quick reads the blog; and then gets the idea to interview Warren sooner than later.
By the way, Jim Cramer had an interesting "take" on the question that everyone has been asking: has the recent run-up / rally in the stock market these past few months been due to the GOP tax bill? Have the gains that the market has made in the past few weeks been due to the anticipation that the tax bill would be passed? In other words, have the implications of the tax bill already been "baked into" the market?

Jim Cramer noted that the current US rally has paralleled the global market rally. He did not use the phrase "global synchronization rally," but he could have. And then he noted: the rest of the world did not just pass a huge tax cut bill.

If Cramer is correct, the effect the tax cut will have on investments is yet to be seen in the US market.

By the way, in a PBS interview available on YouTube Warren Buffett answered very clearly and very succinctly that 2% growth in the GDP is just fine for the US; the current US generation and the next generation and the next generation will all do very well with 2% growth. He feels very, very strongly that tax reform will not move the needle, it will do nothing for GDP growth. He says that 3% will occasionally happen but it won't be sustained in the US for any significant period of time -- he did not specify the time frame but it sounds like he would be surprised if the US would see a full year of 3% GDP growth. He was perfectly content with 2% growth in GDP.

I am sure his shareholders would not be content with 2% growth year-over-year. LOL.

But getting back to Cramer: I can see arguments to Cramer's observations, but on the other hand, I don't think the market has yet even begun to think what the tax bill will mean for publicly heald corporations. Imagine: their effective tax rate drops from 23% to 9% literally overnight. Imagine if your own income tax dropped by more than half. Wow.

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Follow-Up

A reader questioned Cramer's view. I agreed.  I replied in an e-mail:
You are so correct .... that's what I was thinking when I put this in the post: "I can see arguments to Cramer's observations, ...."
I wonder if Cramer would have had a better argument by looking at GDP in US vs GDP in EU. GDP in US has had a real run this year in the US and not due to tax bill yet.
Meanwhile, EU GDP has done quite poorly over the past same year, I believe: https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp.

North Dakota Population Drops For First Time In 15 Years -- Bismarck Tribune -- December 22, 2017

It makes for an interesting headline, but it doesn't mean much -- at least not for me. LOL.

From the article:
For the first time in 15 years, North Dakota’s population has shrunk.
But the drop is not as sharp as in other states, and the figures should be put in context for interpretation, North Dakota’s census official said.
The state, which set population records during its oil boom, had a population decrease of 155 people from July 1, 2016 to July 1 according to estimates released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That means it has about 755,400 people.
Minnesota saw a jump of 51,556 residents from 2016 to 2017.
I can't get too excited about the "loss" of 155 people over one year. I'm impressed such precise records can be kept.

From The StarTribune, September 2, 2016: Minnesota is among the top states for refugee resettlement.
Minnesota has resettled two dozen Syrian refugees in the past year and continues to be among the nation’s top states for exile resettlement, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. State Department.
President Obama last year unveiled a Syrian resettlement program to help with a global migration crisis sparked by the country’s civil war. The United States resettled its 10,000th Syrian refugee last week.
In Minnesota, 25 Syrian refugees made homes in the past year, landing mostly in Rochester and Minneapolis. The state also took in almost 1,100 Somalis, 166 Ethiopians and 66 Congolese — a large increase from last year through August.
And more;
All told, 2,335 refugees have settled in the state since last year — the most since 2007. Other trends include the arrival of a few refugees from El Salvador and an increase in the numbers of people coming from Iran and Iraq. Minnesota ranks 13th nationally for the number of refugees who call the state home.
Generally, one will see an increase in these new immigrant populations as immigrants from same countries from different parts of the US will flow to states where they are welcomed, as is occurring in Minnesota.

By the way, the immigration program is a huge money-maker for Christian ministries in the upper midwest as has been reported before on the blog.