Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Making America Great -- More Oil Export Capacity Possible In Texas -- Enterprise Products -- December 6, 2017

It just doesn't seem to quit.

A lot of nice data points in this UPI article.
Enterprise Products Partners said it wants to convert a gas line to carry crude oil to the Houston area, which would likely be sent out for exports.
The company announced plans Wednesday to convert a pipeline in its portfolio that carries natural gas from the Permian shale basin to a crude oil pipeline. With a new gas pipeline coming into service at the end of 2019, Shin Oak, the company said it has flexibility to repurpose another line for shale oil.
Pipeline, The Chantays

Six New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed; Ten DUCs Completed -- December 6, 2017

Active rigs;

$56.0512/6/201712/06/201612/06/201512/06/201412/06/2013
Active Rigs533864188193

Six new permits:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Bear Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: it looks like the permits for the six wells will be on two separate pads (4 + 2) but they will all drill the same drilling unit; they all have the "Bobcat Federal" name
Sixteen permits renewed:
  • QEP (12): permits for one large 12-well pad, or two 6-well pads, SESW and SWSW-26-149-91, Dunn County
  • BTA Oil (2): two Audrey permits in Golden Valley County
  • MRO: a permit for a Regina well in Dunn County
  • Resource Energy: a Leona permit, Divide County
Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 28461, 1,982, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-24C-13-2H, Keene, t11/17; cum --
  • 30696, 3,218, Whiting, Charging Eagle 15-21A-16-4H, Twin Buttes, t11/17; cum --
  • 33147, 379, BR, Croff 22C MBH, Croff, 4 sections, t10/17; cum --
  • 33152, 414, BR, Mathistad 6-8-35 MBH, Croff, 4 sections, t11/17; cum --
  • 33153, 524, BR, Croff 6-1-2 UTFH, Croff, 4 sections, t11/17; cum --
  • 33177, 895, Hess, BL-A Iverson-LE-155-96-1312H-1, Beaver Lodge, 4 sections, t11/17; cum --
  • 33178, 794, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-7, Beaver Lodge, Devonian, unitized; t11/17; cum --
  • 33179, 853, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-6, Beaver Lodge, t11/17; cum --
  • 33180, 594, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-5, Beaver Lodge, Devonian, unitized, t11/17; cum --
  • 33181, 818, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-4, Beaver Lodge, t11/17; cum --
****************************************
The Devonian

For newbies, this was taken from the "Monster Wells" page (note, #2009 will turn 59 years old on December 21, 2017, and is still active):

Devonian 
  • 35, 263, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit H-310, Beaver Lodge, t3/60; cum 2.091440 million bls 6/17; still producing 775 bbls/month 6/17;
  • 718, IAW/188, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit F-311, Beaver Lodge, t6/65; cum 1.869286 million bbls 8/15;
  • 1403, 351, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit B-304, Beaver Lodge, t11/57; cum 2.530026 million bbls 6/17; still producing almost 2,000 bbls/month, 6/17;
  • 2009, 179, Enduro, North Dakota C A 2, McGregor, t12/58; cum 1.297038 million bbls; still producing about 650 bbls/month, 10/17; going on 59 years of age;
  • 2150, 387, Amerada/Hess, Herfindahl + Davidson #1, Beaver Lodge, Devonian pool, Beaver Lodge field, s1/59; t4/59; AL; cum 918,970 bbls as of 7/74; last production numbers in 1974: 4,000 bbls/month; still listed as active;
  • 2501, PA/115, Hess, BLDU G-311D, t1/60; cum 1.11 million bbls 4/01; last production in 1997;  SWD;
  • 2515, PA/306, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit C-303, t2/60; cum 1.335636 million bbls; last produced 5/09 (55 years of production)
  • 3900, 102, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian Unit D-307, Beaver Lodge, t11/65; cum 1.05724 bbls 10/17; back on active status as of 8/17;
  • 3983, 234, Enduro Operating, North Dakota C A 3, a Devonian well, vertical, 320-acre spacing, t1/66, cum 1.388897 million bbls; 10/17; celebrated its 51st anniversary January, 2017; still producing about 500 bbls/month, 6/17;

Wind Factory Making Blades To Close Shop In Aberdeen, SD -- Can't Make It Without Tax Credits -- December 6, 2017

A reader sent me the link to the article. My reply:
Wow, I feel bad for the workers. That's really tough. That's a lot of folks employed making blades. But it's sad that the industry needs tax credits to make the numbers work.
Here's the story, data points:
  • Aberdeen, SD
  • Molded Fiber Glass, since 2008
  • has been making 187 foot blades for General Electric
  • General Electric was the company’s only client and [GE plans] to work with LM Wind Power, a company [GE} purchased in October 2016 for $1.65 billion, to make the blades
  • also affecting the shutdown was the phasing out of the renewable electricity production tax credit given to companies that manufacture for the wind energy industry
  • but there is hope: three other companies looking at the location (I assume for manufacturing)

Notes To The Granddaughters -- December 6, 2017

Once a week (or it might be twice a week, I forget, or maybe it's even more often than that), the students at Tutor Time are taught Spanish.

This is Sophia's classroom. Mind you, these are three-year-olds. When they turn four, they will move up to the next classroom. [Sophia's closest male friend was moved up to the four-year-old classroom last week, but they see each other passing in the hallway going to and from various activities, and because his mom and I pick our charges up about the same time every day, they can see each other then for a few minutes. And, oh, yes, they have breakfast together at 9:00 a.m.

Here Sophia is, in Spanish class.




Natural Gas Production In The Bakken Is Increasing At A Faster Rate Than Oil Production -- EIA -- December 6, 2017

A reader alerted me to this story from the EIA.

Several interesting graphs at the linked article.

It's all about the bubble point This paragraph explains the phenomenon:
In tight oil formations like the Bakken and Three Forks—which have low permeability—the gas-oil ratio tends to increase only gradually over an extended period of time before reaching a certain point at which it then increases significantly.
As producers extract hydrocarbons from a rock formation, the pressure in the formation eventually falls below the point at which natural gas naturally separates from the gas-saturated crude oil—a threshold known as the bubble point.
More oil relative to natural gas tends to be produced during the initial phases of production, after which natural gas production can increase once pressure in the formation reaches the bubble point
If that's what is happening in the Bakken now, it helps explain the flaring problem that is now being reported by the NDIC and a problem that is being talked about at the national level (e.g., RBN Energy).

In this particular article, the EIA ends with this paragraph:
In previous years, insufficient infrastructure to collect, gather, and transport North Dakota’s increasing natural gas production meant more than 35% of the state's gross withdrawals of natural gas was flared rather than marketed.
In an effort to reduce the amount of flared gas, North Dakota's Industrial Commission established new targets in 2014 to limit flaring to 10% by October 1, 2020.
Based on data from North Dakota's Industrial Commission, the volume of flared natural gas has declined from more than 0.35 Bcf/d in 2014 to about 0.20 Bcf/d in 2017—about a 40% decline.  
It is interesting that the EIA does not note North Dakota's current problem with flaring. Obviously the EIA cannot be unaware of that. By not mentioning it suggests to me that the EIA:
  • sees North Dakota's flaring problem as a temporary event / an anomaly that will be resolved over time
  • did not want to "muddy" the waters at this point in time; waiting to see how this would play out
The EIA mentioned that North Dakota has a target of less than 10% natural gas to be flared after 2020. These are the comments and data points from the most recent Director's Cut:
Natural gas capture, getting "worse" and FBIR is major issue:
  • statewide: 83% (previous -- 86% [trending down])
  • FBIR: 71% (previous -- 77% [huge disappointment; was 82% previous to that])
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: pending (previous - the trend has worsened -- large amount of flaring on BLM land)
This is the EIA's graph on natural gas flaring in North Dakota. The EIA did not discuss the recent rise in flaring. The solid blue area represents how many million cfpd that North Dakota flares (x-axis on the left); the red line represents the percent of natural gas flared (x-axis on the right).


Note: the EIA did not comment on the recent increase in flaring as a percentage / actual amount -- the single circle to the right, emphasized with the arrow.

Fires In Southern California -- December 6, 2017

It will only be a matter of time before talking heads and the mainstream media "blame" this fire on global warming. California television reporters have noted that an almost-identical fire -- same time of the year -- occurred back in 1961, and was much worse, destroying over 400 homes. That fire was called the "Bel-Air fire." That fire began as a brush fire. Hmmm....

We've driven this route "a gazillion times." We visit the Getty Center every time we visit southern California which is at least once a year.

The cars in this photo are heading south, and in about a quarter-mile they will pass the exit to the Getty Center. It's hard to believe that the flames appear to have surrounded the Getty; whether the flames have engulfed, or will engulf, the Getty -- I do not know. It goes without saying there is some priceless art in that center.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- December 6, 2017

Link here.
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.6 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories stand at 448.1 million bbls; still well above the average range for this time of year
  • refineries operated at 93.8% of their operable capacity
  • gasoline production decreased last week, but was still huge: 9.8 million bbls per day
  • distillate fuel production increased: 5.4 million bbls per day
Re-balancing: down to 37 weeks (quite remarkable, actually):

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
50
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27
Week 19
September 7, 2017
-4.6
462.4
32
Week 20
September 13, 2017
-5.9
468.2
39
Week 21
September 20, 2017
-4.6
472.8
46
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37