Thursday, October 19, 2017

Random Update Of An MRO Re-Frack, #16459, Oscar Stohler, In Bailey Oil Field -- October 19, 2017

Update on this well:
  • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey oil field, t10/08; cum 296K 8/17; recent production, re-fracked, 5/26/17 - 6/12/17; tested 9/12/18, with a "new" IP of 1,443, 45 stages; 5.4 million lbs sand;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20173118678184571494523587335618049
BAKKEN7-20172929243292222040036800332230188
BAKKEN6-201716165411640464252112286918364
BAKKEN5-2017100130000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017102746961352180147
BAKKEN2-2017289439182537720504
BAKKEN1-201731108113932908750579
BAKKEN12-20163011839232957610464
BAKKEN11-2016269459012486080356
BAKKEN10-201631122013503087850468
BAKKEN9-2016301134874304766194271
BAKKEN8-2016183532329732015527
BAKKEN7-20163110621141275715126289
BAKKEN6-20163098311312706290344

Initial production:
BAKKEN6-20093032002971652207020700
BAKKEN5-20092223752422862127912790
BAKKEN4-20091845104677552324232420
BAKKEN3-20091023192402440157915790
BAKKEN2-20092435243170148226222620
BAKKEN1-20093134703762413210921090
BAKKEN12-200826660965781210202420240
BAKKEN11-20083043434259607277227720
BAKKEN10-20082810473104963448610761070
BAKKEN9-20082036053254152000

Something Analysts Aren't Talking About Much: Re-Fracks -- October 19, 2017

See this post regarding CLR's Rattlesnake Point wells

From an earlier post:
From a May 31, 2016, sundry report, for:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, open hole frack with 1 million lbs sand, t4/08; cum 134K 4/16;
CLR plans to re-enter and deepen the existing lateral of the Bridger 44-14H. CLR plans to extend the existing lateral by 336' to a TVD of 11,090' and a MD of 21,194' to the proposed BHL (200' FNL, 1320' FEL). After drilling to the proposed BHL, CLR plans to set a liner top packer in the 7" casing at 10,634' MD and then cement the 4.5" 11.6 ppf production liner in place.

CLR will not be injecting diesel fuel during our hydraulic stimulation activities.
So, how did the re-frack go? From FracFocus, re-fracked: 4/28/17 - 5/19/17 --
  • 17089, conf, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20173127510274882742728501217386763
BAKKEN7-20175210220478371178851093
BAKKEN6-2017151923013063170317
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201663356448743366367
BAKKEN6-2016302106222060225321592373

EOG Well Producing 3,000 Bbls/Month Jumps To 13,000 Bbls/Month -- October 19, 2017

Last month I posted this note:
September 3, 2017: 33281, MRO, Iron Woman USA 14-9H,  Antelope, 4 sections, t7/17; cum 265K 1/18; --  #20602; #19790 to see if there was any bump in bump in production of these wells;
So, let's see: any bump in production for either #20602 or #19790? Not for #19790, but for #20602:
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope oil field, Sanish target; #20602 is 845 feet west of #33281; t7/12; cum 463K 8/17; no evidence from FracFocus that this well was re-fracked:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20173113364133687554202724219515
SANISH7-201721075997938113901108
SANISH6-20170000000
SANISH5-2017549448497132212095
SANISH4-201730301430246968219745176
SANISH3-201731309831027648903815831
SANISH2-2017283317333779891368235255
SANISH1-201731413441719191094591621084

So this well's production jumped from 3,000 bbls/month to 13,000 bbls/month after being off-line about three months.

Futures Are Soaring -- October 19, 2017

Futures mean squat, but (a dynamic link):


The usual disclaimer.

*************************************
The Great Leveller: 
Violence and the History of Inequality From The Stone Age to the 21st Century
Walter Scheidel
c. 2017

Review in the October 19, 2017, issue of The London Review of Books.
It is by now common knowledge that income inequality has grown by leaps and bounds as a result of the neoliberal policies of the past half-century.
The United States is a case in point – eight hyper-rich Americans today own as much as the entire bottom half of the nation’s households – but it is not an anomaly.
Such massive inequalities are a global phenomenon. In 2015, Walter Scheidel writes in The Great Leveller: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the 21st Century, ‘the richest 62 persons on the planet owned as much private net wealth as the poorer half of humanity, more than 3.5 billion people.’
The disparity is stupefying; it would be hardly less stupefying if Scheidel were off by a factor of, say, two or three, and 124 or 186 individuals had as much wealth as the poorest half of the world’s population.
I honestly do not know whether to renew my subscription to London Review of Books and/or The New York Review of Books. But when I read articles like this one, I think, "yes, I have to review."

Memo to self: look up Gini on wiki.

Later: in response to this note, a reader sent me a long comment -- an excerpt:
Picketty's work is what I believe ignited this "wealth inequality" mantra.

I think it's bunk.

When John D Rockefeller died in the late 1930's, he was a billionaire, with a "b".  That was at a time when you could buy a men's wool Hart, Schaffner and Marx 3 piece suit for $15; a brand new car was under $1000; and an extravagant New Year's dinner, complete with fresh oysters and champagne was $1 at the most elegant hotel in New Mexico.

There were plenty of Vanderbilts, Astors, Jay Gould, Carnegie, Mellon, etc. contemporaneously. Link to richest Americans throughout history.
.... the Kleppner book was the germ of my idea.
It used a unique way for adjusting for inflation.  Each person's wealth was the numerator and the GDP (or GNP, I've forgotten) of the USA was the denominator.  If I remember it would only have taken another 65 JDR's to total our whole national economy - no one else has come close.

Back to the bunk - our generation has unprecedented access to electricity, housing, plumbing, communication, etc. as a matter of course.  Just one generation ago in rural ND, there was no electricity, plumbing was not a given and I remember getting a "party-line" telephone.  We were 55 miles from a doctor, and that was all gravel road.  So, I call "shenanigans" when anyone waves the increasing income inequality flag. 
*************************************
The Glass Universe:
The Hidden History of the Women Who Took the Measure of the Stars
Dava Sobel
c. 2017

Also by Dava Sobel: Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved The Greatest Scientific Problem Of His Time, Dava Sobel, c. 1995, a copy of which I have in storage, box 6003, "the Latin,
Austen, Bronte box."


And again, reviewed in The London Review of Books, the October 5, 2017, edition.  

I've read this "computer" story many times in various publications. It looks like this may be another book to buy for the library.
It’s nice to settle in with an old-fashioned story of inheritances, dramatic shifts in social class and the occasional total eclipse of the Sun. Dava Sobel’s The Glass Universe: The Hidden History of the Women Who Took the Measure of the Stars begins in the late 19th century, following the story of the women (and a few men, too) who worked at the Harvard College Observatory computing the location and brightness of the stars. Many of these women progressed from being skilled ‘human computers’ – basically people doing calculations – to making major scientific contributions: documenting the birth of new stars, working out what the stars are actually made of (surprise: almost all hydrogen and helium) and devising ways to measure distances across space. This all began happening at a time when American women still could not vote, and when many questioned whether women merited a higher education at all.
As the story moves forward into the first half of the 20th century, The Glass Universe still mostly reads like a 19th-century novel, following unexpected turns of chance and the fateful course of inheritances. There’s some science, of course – but also a tragic drowning, a fatal case of dysentery and (late in the game) a marriage plot or two. Reading the book reminded me that one reason 19th-century novels are the way they are is that the 19th century was the way it was (for a good measure of people).
These women have some control over their lives, but chance is a more powerful determinant. One observatory employee whom Sobel writes about extensively is a certain Mrs Fleming: a Scot who comes over to America pregnant in 1878. Abandoned by her husband, she finds work at the observatory as the director’s maid, and then, when it is discovered that she has a natural mathematical facility, she is hired for astronomical work. Soon enough she is supervising a large team of ‘computers’, has developed a stellar classification system and drawn attention to what are known as ‘variable stars’.

Rachel Wolf Wells In Squaw Creek Oil Field Have Been Updated -- October 19, 2017

The Rachel Wolf wells in Squaw Creek oil field have been updated. Huge wells.

*******************************
Follow-Up

Last month I posted this note:
September 16, 2017: this well came off-line 7/17; and there are neighboring wells on confidential status suggesting getting ready to frack; Elm Tree is an incredible field; let's see what this well does when it comes back on-line:
  • 23108, 767, Slawson Exploration, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 386K 8/17;
So, let's see how this well has done now that it has been brought back on-line -- note -- production jumped from 3,000 bbls/month to over 9,000 bbls/month; no evidence according to FracFocus that this well was re-fracked:

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201728953289527784900034593848
BAKKEN7-201778969296223044
BAKKEN6-20171420671608248919483461007
BAKKEN5-20173123972321592827181253458
BAKKEN4-20173034273507433837112622369
BAKKEN3-20171225632235118722121384540


*****************************************
From a Footnote
Undaunted Courage: 
Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson, and the Opening of the American West
Stephen Ambrose
1996

Page 228:

Missouri River: from Ft Benton (outfitter) to Judith Landing. Perhaps a better site.

"Of all the historic and/or scenic sights we have visited in the world, this is number one. We have made the trip ten times."

Australia Marks The Death Of Its Automobile Manufacturing Industry -- Blame It On High Wages -- October 19, 2017

Some readers think the demise of the manufacturing industry in Australia can be traced back to the country's shift to renewable energy and the high price of energy in an energy-rich country. From Bloomberg:
As thousands of people attended an automobile rally in Australia’s blue-collar heartland on Sunday, many knew it was also a funeral procession for the nation’s car industry.
General Motors Co. will close its Holden factory in the South Australian suburb of Elizabeth on Friday, ending more than a century of car manufacturing in the country. Hundreds of workers will be left jobless, just weeks after Toyota Motor Corp. shut its plant in neighboring Victoria state, where Ford Motor Co. closed two sites last year.
The closures mark the end of home-grown icons such as the Holden Commodore and the Ford Falcon driven by Mel Gibson in the original “Mad Max” movie. But they also strike an economic blow, especially in the rust belt state of South Australia, where recent signs of recovery haven’t been enough to stop people leaving in droves.
If folks recall, it was South Australia that was most affected by the renewable energy push. The chickens are coming home to roost. 

And with that story, a new tag.

************************************
The Recipe Page

Chef Trevor's vodka-lime-shrimp fettuccine.

From a reader. His note also included a link to an interest site, "The Crude Life Media Network."

From the reader:
According to its homepage, the founder of "The Crude Life",  Jason Spiess, a grad of ND State University, started at the bottom [and, you might presume from the name, stayed there], delivering the Fargo Forum. ( Can children still do that?  If so, does the job have a minimum wage requirement?) 
After the degree, his new news business grew from 9 months of work out of his RV.  (Then the ND winter must have really set in.)  Haven't heard his voice, yet. 
But, it would really be fun if it served as a genetic marker, affording me voice recognition of Maynard Spiess, one of the beloved and hilarious Minneapolis morning  WCCO radio personalities, from my decade of the 60's in Minnesota, that made it so much fun to jump out of bed in the morning.  Could a son or grandson be carrying on a family's media legacy, in "The Crude Life"?
But what was the spark from the subject line of this story that I wanted you to feel? 
Oh, yes.  It was just an observation with a possible connection to North Dakota winters:  
The Italians must have almost as many recipes and words for pasta as the indigenous people of the Arctic have for snow.  (That would be funny if I could recall the actual number of words the Laplanders have for "snow."  Where is a smart phone, when you need to ask it something?)
I have to laugh. When I go shopping for pasta, I look at all the names of the different types of pasta, and from my perspective, all pasta looks almost the same, with very, very subtle differences.

And to think that Norwegians have just one name for "leftse" and one word for "lutefisk." As far as I know. 

The Energy And Market Page, T+271 -- Deepwater Drilling? It's Over -- October 19, 2017 -- If Markey Is Upset About The GOP And The Arctic, It Has To Be Good

NFL-Free Thursday night. More time for blogging; more time for family. I'm lovin' it. It's kind of funny. I had completely forgotten about the game tonight until my brother-in-law mentioned it in passing a few minutes ago. It's on CBS, NFLN, and Amazon. Just saying.

The Trump rally! It continues. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow (the latter being down more than 100 points during the day) finished higher at the close. Not by much, but higher, nonetheless.

NYSE, new highs, 118, including -- KBR; McDonald's;
  • new lows: 36, including Eastman Kodak;
  • a bad day for AAPL, down over 2% -- great for buyers
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

GOP getting something done. Opening the Arctic. From Bloomberg:
Congressional Republicans have found a way to use the federal budget to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling -- and they don’t plan on stopping there. 
GOP leaders in the House and Senate are exploring ways to also expand drilling in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans through congressional budget rules that allow them to pass major policy changes on a simple majority vote.
"There are other opportunities for us," Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview. "There is a significant way that we can help with the budget process."
Money from selling drilling rights and royalties from oil and gas production would be a revenue-raiser that could help offset some of the tax cuts Republicans are proposing. The House has instructed its Natural Resources Committee to find ways to generate $5 billion in revenue over the next decade. And the Senate is set to vote as soon as this week on a budget plan imposing a $1 billion target on Murkowski’s natural resources committee.
The moves give committee leaders the ability to advance proposals for drilling in ANWR -- or other areas, as long as they would generate new funds for the U.S. Treasury. 
Once the budget is approved, a later bill following its instructions is immune from the type of Democratic filibuster that has blocked drilling in the past.
Senator Ed Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, called the tactic a "heartless Republican budgetary scam."
The glow is off. We've talked about this before with regard to the Permian. From Rigzone:
Encana Corp. Chief Executive Officer Doug Suttles says drillers in Texas’s prolific Permian Basin can no longer impress investors with how much acreage they’re snapping up or how quickly they’re boosting production.
Instead, investors will focus on how profitably companies are able to produce from their current holdings.
“The race for the land is kind of over,” Suttles said. “Now it’s what are you going to do with the land.”
Encana expects to increase cash flow about 25 percent a year through 2022, the Calgary-based company said Wednesday in a presentation to investors. Cumulative free cash flow in that period will be about $1.5 billion, assuming oil prices at $50 a barrel. Driving those gains will be a profit margin that expands to roughly $16 per barrel of production in five years, up from about $11 currently, the company said.
The glow is off. This time it's deepwater drilling. From Rigzone:
Transocean Ltd. is finally sending Pathfinder to its grave, after two years in a Caribbean purgatory that cost about $15,000 a day.
The move by the world’s biggest offshore-rig operator signals just how bleak the future looks for deepwater drilling. Pathfinder is the most famous of six floating rigs the company is scrapping in burials that will add up to a bruising $1.4 billion write-off.
Competitors are going the same route, jettisoning more rigs in the third quarter than have ever been trashed in a 90-day stretch.
Active rigs in North Dakota:

$51.4010/19/201710/19/201610/19/201510/19/201410/19/2013
Active Rigs563166190184

Six new permits
  • Operator: Kraken Operating
  • Field: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken Operating has permits for a six-well Redfield/Colfax pad in NENE 25-157N-99W, Oliver oil field (see below)
Four permits renewed:
  • EOG: four Burke permits in Mountrail County

Existing wells:
  • 19133, 39 (no typo), SM Energy, Redfield 25, 36-157-99H, t8/11; cum 125K 8/17;
  • 21971, 662, Kraken Operating, Mathewson 1-30H, Oliver, t4/12; cum 173K 8/17;
  • 21781, 277, SM Energy, Redfield 24-13-157-99H 1NC, t2/12; cum 172K 8/17;

US Shale Revolution -- Staggering -- October 19, 2017

This was such a great comment, I am re-posting it. I never thought about this -- drillers are drilling through rock, two miles below the surface of the earth at a rate of one mile/day and staying in a two-foot window for the length of the 9,000' lateral for the full distance.

I find that absolutely incredible.

The "window" is not always as narrow as two feet, but the middle Bakken is generally about 40-feet thick and drillers generally have a 2-foot to 10-foot window, it appears, within the middle Bakken when drilling.

The comment from the earlier post:
Niobrara drill/completions can be done for under $3 million.
Mile-a-day drilling is somewhat routine with 7,000'+ starting to appear.
The precision in targeting the most productive rock is near 100%.
The use of diversion techniques, microproppants, and restricted flowback are all relatively new developments.
EOR efforts are barely beginning.
The decrease in cost - along with MUCH higher production - is expanding economic areas in existing plays and favorably influencing the Uinta, Powder River, Rogersville, possibly the Tuscaloosa Marine shale (TMS), to name just a few.
The amount of natural gas and NGLs coming from these unconventional operations will continue to rock the world.
I wish I had the ability to put together nice essays that really capture all that is happening in the US with regard to oil and natural gas. One of the problems I have is simply summarizing everything in a coherent article. 

Unemployment Data No Longer Being Featured On CNBC (Television) During Trump Administration? I Wonder Why -- US Unemployment Claims Lowest In 44 Years -- Making America Great Again -- The Political Page, T+271 -- October 19, 2017

From The Washington Post this morning: US unemployment claims fall to 222,000, lowest in 44 years. Data points:
  • number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 44 years
  • another sign that most workers enjoy job security
  • jobless aid dropped by 22,000 to 222,000, fewest since March 1973
  • the less volatile four-week average slid by 9,500 to 248,250, lowest since late August
  • the low level suggests that employers are confident enough in the economy to hold onto workers
  • the unemployment rate last month hit a 16-year low 4.2 percent
  • the Labor Department says that Hurricanes Irma and Maria have disrupted the ability of people to file claims in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
If CNBC reported this on television this morning, I missed it. But over at CNBC on-line:
  • first time claims dropped 22,000
  • seasonally adjusted 222,000, the lowest level since March, 1973
  • analysts had forecast claims falling to 240,000
  • the decrease claims was the largest since April and was probably exaggerated by the Columbus Day holiday on Monday

Such Hypocricy, What Trump Has To Put Up With -- The Political Page, T+271 -- October 19, 2017

From The Hill earlier this year:


*******************************************************************

Yesterday, we learn from Business Insider:


*******************************************************************
CO2 Emissions and Jet Aircraft Travel

It's not as if we didn't know. From The New York Times as far back as 2013:


Thursday, October 19, 2017

Active rigs:

$51.2310/19/201710/19/201610/19/201510/19/201410/19/2013
Active Rigs563166190184

RBN Energy: prospects for ethane production and transportation from the Marcellus/Utica.

For background related to the Bakken, see this post first
Available ethane in the Marcellus/Utica is expected to increase 70% by 2022 to 800 Mb/d, from about 470 Mb/d this year.
That should be good news for the slew of ethane-only steam crackers coming online in that time frame, primarily along the Gulf Coast. But unfortunately, there is limited ethane pipeline takeaway capacity out of the region and today more than half of the potential ethane supply is being rejected into the natural gas pipeline stream.
Without additional takeaway capacity, that rejected volume is expected to grow and few additional ethane barrels will make their way to the Gulf Coast. The question is, will transportation economics support additional pipeline development to where the demand is growing the most? Today, we will explore how the changing ethane market is likely to impact the Marcellus/Utica producing region.
This is Part 4 of a series in which we look forward based on RBN’s most recent forecasts of ethane supply and demand. In Part 1, we began with a discussion of how the ratio of Mont Belvieu ethane prices to the Henry Hub natural gas price on a per-Btu basis influences the decision of whether to extract ethane or reject it and send it into the natural gas stream. As we noted, that’s one of the most important market factors for understanding how the current ethane market transformation will unfold. The higher the ratio of ethane to natural gas prices/Btu, the greater the volume of ethane that is recovered as a liquid feedstock for the petrochemical industry. This year, that ratio has shifted to 1.4:1, up from 1:1 last year. As a result, ethane production is up about 90 Mb/d in 2017 year-to-date from the 2016 average.
Next, in Part 2, we turned our focus to the five-year outlook for ethane demand and looked at what is happening on the demand side of the ethane equation, including the timing of new steam-cracker startups, how much additional ethane they will use, the pace of ethane export growth, and the trends in the cents-per-pound margin for producing ethylene from ethane.
Part 3 delved into the factors that will determine how much supply will be available for the growing demand and the economics of how it will get to where most of the demand is located — along the Gulf Coast. Since there are major differences between supply regions when it comes to gas processing infrastructure, access to nearby fractionation capacity, and takeaway capacity, among other factors, we first split U.S. ethane production into five major regions, shown in Figure 1 below: (1) Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana, (2) Midcontinent, (3) Rockies, (4) Williston/Bakken and (5) Marcellus/Utica.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Blue Apron: very, very blue. Market valuation down 50%; cutting staff.

Blue Hotel, Chris Isaac