Saturday, September 23, 2017

Update On New Runway At Bismarck Airport -- September 23, 2017

From The Bismarck Tribune, data points:
  • first phase to be complete in October
  • second phase to begin next season
  • federal funding: $10 million discretionary funds annually and $2 million in entitlement funding annually
  • city agreed to $11 million
  • airport had $6 million in reserves 
  • since then, bid amounts for the now $49 million second phase have decreased by $4 million; federa funding has increased by $6 million in extra discretionary funds
  • bottom line: about $10 million "to the good"
  • next phase: about $15 million
  • total project cost: $65 million
Just in time for the 2018 mid-term elections making it easier for Trump to fly in to support his candidates.

Oasis To Report Some Incredible Lawlar Wells; The Matthew Schmidt Wells Have Been Updated -- September 23, 2017; CLR With Another High-Intensity Frack

Item 1: The Matthew Schmidt wells have been updated. Important wells for understanding the Bakken.

Item 2: 16646, 277, CLR, Ryden 21-24H, 24-146-96, 2 sections, t7/07; cum 216K 7/17; (off line as of 5/17 suggesting ready to frack); link here.

Item 3: Meanwhile, is CLR getting ready to frack the Rath Federal wells (or have they already been fracked)? Note that Rath Federal, #31670, has been off-line for several months:
  • 31670, 2,063, CLF, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages; 13.7 million lbs; t8/16; cum 166K 7/17:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-201721111181158464131377012627987
BAKKEN2-2017281623916010965620753160634470
BAKKEN1-2017311869718959110662086585119787
BAKKEN12-20163019062188471133922313128529235
BAKKEN11-201630224562249614506249401466110040
BAKKEN10-201631265162652117276305961660413745
BAKKEN9-20163030395305402212534925747727215
BAKKEN8-201617216052104120242248081465710025

*********************************
CLR Getting Ready To Report IPs For The Lawlar Wells

Link here.

Production so far from selected Lawlar wells:

31634:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20172556132095


31633:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20174213449105

31632
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20174383162836
6-20171250419395

31631:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20174742861653
6-20172427833280


31630:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20173065840478
6-20171548721379
31629:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20175497368605
6-20172327829331

Random Update Of BR's Kings Canyon #18018 -- September 23, 2017

Take a look at the graphic at this post.

#18018 was recently off-line, but back on status.

Look at the "unusual" location of the horizontal for #29434, brought all the way over to line up exactly against #18018:



#29434, a Three Forks well, was fracked 7/8/2015, with 36 stages and 4.2 million lbs of large/small sand:
  • 29434, 1,080, BR, Kings Canyon 3-1-27MTFH, Camel Butte, 4 sections, t8/15; cum 68K 8/17;
So, the natural question is, what did the production profile for #18018, a middle Bakken well,  look like in late 2015?
  • 18018, 321, BR, Kings Canyon 21-27H, Camel Butte, API: 33-053-03012, t12/09; cum 260K 7/17:
BAKKEN5-20163155645440108513048129710
BAKKEN4-20162858745733169415196151270
BAKKEN3-201631103281030727102107620885114
BAKKEN2-20167127294442222501944288
BAKKEN1-20161781268388227513131130890
BAKKEN12-2015311694817276452310620105430
BAKKEN11-20152818994185216366810980400
BAKKEN10-201512563455412061420324291744
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-20150000000
BAKKEN7-20151414640200
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20152870101841790
BAKKEN4-201530125111453401474132772

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see a middle Bakken well neighboring this well; the two wells nearest the middle Bakken well (one on either side of the middle Bakken well, #18018) are both Three Forks wells. Just saying. FracFocus does not have any data for a frack of #18018 in 2015.

In other words, #18018 was producing about 1,000 bbls/month. It was taken off line for less than six months and when it came back on line it produced almost 20,000 bbls/month or 20 months of production in one month. And that was sustained for two months and then declined quickly.

When it costs upwards of $10 million to drill/complete a well, I don't think locations of horizontals are random or coincidental.

Doomsday: Mainstream Media

Page 2

Just some housekeeping. The original page is simply getting too long. Time for page 2.

This page is part of the "Big Stories" page linked at the sidebar at the right. "The Doomsday Chronicles" track a number of sectors, including mainstream media.

July 23, 2018: the "struggling" Daily News is about to go under?
The cuts at the teetering tabloid, which some insiders feared would range as high as 70 percent of staff, are expected to be among the largest in the paper’s 99-year history — and could include editor-in-chief Jim Rich.
March 17, 2018: Breitbart summarizes how bad things have gotten for the media (the link won't work; the blogger app won't link Breitbart) --
  • start with the Denver Post, which announced Thursday that, between April 9 and July 1, 30 jobs will be cut from its newsroom. That is a massive 30 percent cut of its current staff of 100 journalists.  Just 10 years ago according to the far-left Washington Post, the Denver Post employed 600 journalists. That is close to a 90 percent reduction in only a decade.
  • Chicago Tribune; hours later, another wave of surprise layoffs hit the Chicago Tribune; fourteen newsroom staffers were let go int eh publication's second round of layoffs in less than six months; back in October (2017) more than a dozen were let go; more cuts expected
  • San Jose Mercury News: last month, another round of layoffs; as many as 27 laid off or bought out
  • East Bay Times: late January (2018), a quarter of its editorial staff wiped out -- layoffs and buy outs; a total of 28 staffers
  • five publications owned by Southern California News Group will face "significant layoffs," including OC Rgister and Los Angeles Daily News
  • CNN: in a credibility death spiral; 
  • this summarizes things quite nicely:
Consider the fact that the media that protected Bill Clinton — a man who as president committed perjury to cover up his sexual affair with a young intern, an affair conducted just a few rooms away from his wife and daughter in the  Oval Office — is now obsessed over a porn star’s story that she might have had a consensual affair with Trump more than a decade ago.
When women credibly accused Clinton of rape, groping, and harassment, our media joined the White House in destroying them as liars. But this same media hoping to turn a 12-year-old consensual relationship into a national scandal.
March 14, 2018: The Denver Post will cut a third of its newsroom staff

December 9, 2017: The owner of the Boston Herald newspaper has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy and is putting itself up for sale, with a $5 million starting offer from GateHouse Media.
The feisty, conservative tabloid, which dates back to 1846, cited the growth of alternative media sources and erosion of advertising revenue in print media for the need to seek bankruptcy protection.


October 18, 2017: Time, Inc., to cut 200 jobs; half in the editorial division.

September 29, 2017: WSJ to end print editions of the European and the Asian WSJ.

September 23, 2017: the demise of the glossy magazine -- The New York Times.  The link sent to me by a reader; I saw the headline but forgot to post the story. Highlighted: Rolling Stone, Vanity Fair. Not mentioned: such magazines as O (Oprah).

The Political Page, T+246 -- September 23, 2017

Updates

Later, 6:56 p.m. Central Time: the tea leaves suggest we could see widespread "kneeling" in the NFL tomorrow. The announcers do what they can to avoid commenting on political issues and producers always cut away from controversial video. It will be interesting to see how things play out Sunday, tomorrow, September 23, 2017. 

Original Post
 
I haven't really kept track but generally, it seems, President Trump gets about 30,000 to 50,000 "likes" on any given Tweet.

I assume he has had more than 100,000 likes on some tweets, but I don't recall any recently. I will watch. What got me thinking about that was this latest tweet:


The NFL commissioner's response suggests that he, the commissioner, would like all NFL players, owners, and managers to kneel or sit during the national anthem. At least that's how I interpreted his response. By the way, the commissioner calls Trump's remarks "disrespectful" of the NFL which apparently, for the commissioner, is worse than US multi-millionaires disrespecting the national anthem. Whatever. At least he didn't call the president "deplorable." LOL.

It will be interesting to see if President Trump re-tweets this one:
As long as I'm posting these, I might as well clean off my desk-top. One more, although I was saving it for Halloween:


******************************************
Irony, Blind Spot, Or Simply An Idiot?
Fair and Balanced. You Decide

Wow, talk about a blind spot. In Fortune, Hillary Clinton is quoted as saying that she does not understand how women can support Trump. 
Hillary Clinton spoke about her thoughts on what she viewed as sexist comments by President Donald Trump and women who continued to support him.
"When I see women doing that, I think why are they publicly disrespecting themselves? Why are they opening the door to have someone say that about them in their workplace?
In a community setting? Do they not see the connection there?" Clinton said in an interview on AM Joy.
Hillary has the audacity to say this even after her husband is overwhelmingly supported by US women voters despite his history.

Stand By Your Man, Tammy Wynette

************************************
Interesting Read

This is behind a paywall but if you don't subscribe to The Los Angeles Times you might be able to access this article by googling
Raids in New Jersey town target ultra-Orthodox Jews accused of welfare fraud. 'What is going on here?'

Agreement Reached: MDU To Supply Bobcat With Natural Gas -- September 23, 2017

See this post first. Now the update. From West Fargo Pioneer, data points:
  • Gwinner, ND, home of Bobcat
  • 700,000-square-foot Bobcat manufacturing plant in Gwinner
  • company signed 15-year agreement to buy natural gas from MDU
  • in turn, MDU will build a $14 million pipeline to deliver natural gas to the plan
  • pipeline will be in service by later summer, 2018
  • 21 miles long, from a tap in the Alliance Pipeline northeast of Minot, running SW to Gwinner
  • Success has many parents: even ND Senator Heidi Heitkamp applauded this announcement
Thank goodness, ND's governor is not named Cuomo.

The Newest Bobcat

********************************
Time Inc To Sell Some Assets

Link, data points:
  • Time Inc will sell several assets, including Time Inc UK
  • will also sell Time Customer Service and a majority stake in the Essence magazine
  • assets to be sold produce about 17% of Time's revenue
  • softness in ad revenue for New York-based publisher of Sports Illustrated, People and namesake Time
I haven't seen a Time magazine in a long time but the last time I looked, a very, very thin publication and selling for about $6.

Week 38: September 17, 2017 -- September 23, 2017

Longest running reality show/soap opera continues. These summer re-runs are getting a bit boring. No real need to post / link the most recent update. I will simply copy/paste what I wrote September 19, 2017.
Bye-bye? Nope, buy-buy. CNBC contributor had it exactly right today -- whether GOP repeals ObamaCare or whether it doesn't, investing in US health care companies is a no-brainer. Bottom line for the contributor regarding health care investments: buy-buy. Buy if ObamaCare is "repealed" (wink, wink); buy if ObamaCare survives a GOP vote to repeal. I've said the same thing for months.
For investors: thank Paul Rand and John McCain for scuttling ObamaCare Lite. Rand and McCain insure that the big insurance companies will be the big winners, and for investors, that's good news.

Look at New Mexico -- health care insurance premiums will increase 40%; deductibles and co-pays will pretty much minimize any liabilities for the insurance companies. Increasing their premiums 40% and minimizing any chance they will actually have to pay for anything ... what's not to like?

Infrastructure. The multi-year infrastructure program in Texas and Florida is now underway and soon to begin in Puerto Rico. For investors, building supply stores; lumber companies; and, railroads are going to do very, very well. Mexico City? Not quite ready to re-build -- another 6.1 earthquake hit the metropolis earlier today.

EVs: this may be the biggest non-energy story of the week. Daimler announced it will invest $1 billion for an EV and battery plant in Alabama. This is a big, big deal on so many levels, and so many story lines.

H-bomb over the Pacific: one wonders if that will finally get the attention of Japan, South Korea, and China.

Peak oil. The oil glut actually worsens despite all the headlines suggesting otherwise. US crude oil inventories are now out to almost 32 days, well past the "historical norm" of 18 - 20 days and the time to re-balance is now back up to 46 weeks after a third consecutive week of rising US crude oil inventories. Interestingly enough, WTI has clawed its way back to $50 and "speculators" are trying to get to $51. LOL.

Natural gas. US is well on its way to surpassing Qatar in annual LNG exports.

Enough of that; the above notes were posted for background for the archives to remind me of what was  going on this past week, while back in the Bakken ...

Operations:
The Bakken is among the top five oil and gas plays for IRRs
The Bakken is among the top four oil and gas plays for best break-even prices (Citi)
In-depth look at NP Resources' plan for a 6-well pad
QEP  has permits for another 7-well pad in the Grail
A short Bakken lateral, less than ten years old, goes over 1 million bbls crude oil produced
Some incredible stats for CLR in Elm Creek oil field
Monthly production statistics for North Dakota
The US SPR is now the Bakken and the Permian
Oasis to sell non-core assets in Montana and North Dakota

DUCs:
MRO reported six huge completions

Fracking:
Can you say "high-intensity"? CLR with a 56-stage, 26-million lb frack
Federal oversight back in the news; much ado about nothing -- if Trump  has anything to say about it

Pipelines:
DAPL is ample
Oasis launches a midstream MLP 

Miscellaneous:
Clean-up begins near Tioga of one of nation's largest onshore oil spills

Bakken economy:
Update on the proposed truck route around the northeast side of Williston
Taiwan signs huge ND wheat deal