Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The P Evitt Wells Have Been Updated -- August 30, 2017

Several P Evitt wells that were DUCs are now producing; older P Evitt wells have also been updated.

P Evitt wells are tracked here.

WPX Caribou Wells In Reunion Bay

The incredible Caribou wells:
  • 32677, 2,520, WPX, Caribou 33-34HDL, Reunion Bay, 61 stages, 9.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 377K 5/19; full production profile here; off line 12/18 - 3/19;
  • 32678, 2,123, WPX, Caribou 33-34HZ, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 61 stages, 9.2 million lbs, t3/17; cum 274K 5/19;
  • 32679, 2,385, WPX, Caribou 33-34HG, Reunion Bay, middle Bakken, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 289K 5/19;
#32677:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173027632276681392624408210990
BAKKEN5-20173138958388951792336886323980
BAKKEN4-20173049712497092720351546459180
BAKKEN3-201731575225736357345363551546714414
BAKKEN2-20170000000

#32678:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201723783478529630810269600
BAKKEN5-20173125097252082859425432224270
BAKKEN4-20172933306333184067734407305440
BAKKEN3-20173139591393695347820944129863403
BAKKEN2-20170000000

 #32679:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2017301739317317915514017118040
BAKKEN5-20173126282263721355723040199090
BAKKEN4-20172730766307671974129503259260
BAKKEN3-20172634764345695440318564119092616

WTI Closes Below $46; Eleven New Permits; Five DUCs Completed -- August 30, 2017

Super-long laterals/extended long laterals: an alert reader noted that the three CLR permits released today (see below) are super-long/extended long laterals. For newbies,
  • short laterals are generally about 5,000 feet long (9,000 vertical + 5,000 horizontal = 14,000-foot TD); generally EOG in the Parshall oil field;
  • long laterals are now the "norm" in the Bakken (9,000 vertical + 9,000 horizontal = 18,000-foot to 21,000-foot TD; almost everywhere in the Bakken, now; 1280-acre or 2-section laterals
  • super-long/extended long laterals: rare in the Bakken; 9,000 vertical + 15,000 horizontal = 24,000-foot to 27,000-foot long laterals;
See tags: SuperLongLaterals; ExtendedLongLaterals to see other examples.

*********************************
Summary: Daily Active Report

Active rigs:

$45.978/30/201708/30/201608/30/201508/30/201408/30/2013
Active Rigs543376194185

Eleven (11) new permits:
  • Operators: Crescent Point (8); CLR (3)
  • Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams); Elm Tree (McKenzie)
    Comments: Crescent Point has permits for an 8-well pad in NWNW 29-157-99; CLR has permits for a 3-well permit in NWNW 21-153-94
One permit renewed:
  • Cornerstone: a Melby permit renewed in Burke County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32172, 851, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-3H, Little Knife, t8/17; cum --
  • 33243, 1,090, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 2H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33244, 1,258, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 3H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33245, 1,196, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 4H, Oliver, t8/17; cum --
  • 33246, 1,182, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 5H, Oliver, t8/17; cum 3K in 7 days;

Random Look At Production Profile Of A QEP Levang Well, Another Example Of The Peculiarity Of The Bakken -- August 30, 2017

These wells will not be updated here. They are followed elsewhere, but I wanted to show something interesting (at least I thought it was interesting):

The wells:
  • 22378, PNC, Helis, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail,
  • 24686, 2,207, QEP, G. Levang 13-32/29H, Grail, t8/13; cum 268K 6/17;
  • 24684, 2,805, QEP, G. Levang 2-32-39TH, Grail, t8/13; cum 383K 6/17;
  • 24685, 2,994, QEP, G. Levang 3-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 365K 6/17;
  • 24687, 2,740, QEP, G. Levang 4-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 303K 6/17;
These four G. Levang wells were all taken off-line from October, 2015, through mid-January, 2016, in when the QEP Boggs wells sited to the north, and running south parallel along the Levang wells were fracked. 

I posted that elsewhere, some time ago. Note that these four wells were taken off-line from October, 2015, through mid-January, 2016, while the QEP Boggs wells sited to the north, running south parallel along the Levang were fracked.

So, the question: what did the production profile look like for the Levang wells during that time period.

Let's look at the last one on the list:
  • 24687, 2,740, QEP, G. Levang 4-32-29BH, Grail, t8/13; cum 303K 6/17;
Here's the production profile of that well when it came back on line after a neighboring well was fracked:
BAKKEN12-201631388038661406101329163938
BAKKEN11-20163041504144111510645106450
BAKKEN10-201631535951471700976897680
BAKKEN9-20161413421473858232223220
BAKKEN8-201631371735682909630563050
BAKKEN7-201620272428151057579757970
BAKKEN6-201630423339781843665066500
BAKKEN5-20161214438673443440
BAKKEN4-201615362238161298594358620
BAKKEN3-20163199159898319714298123191761
BAKKEN2-2016291153011371498414511125101753
BAKKEN1-20161344843527339061295373620
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150030000
BAKKEN10-2015115713351331310
BAKKEN9-20158532510321198819710
BAKKEN8-20153120752018848997798750
BAKKEN7-20153167116698863960682541
 

Wow! EOG To Report Four Huge Wells -- August 30, 2017

These four wells are back on conf status, but they were SI/NC. First month production data has been reported and each of the wells is going to report 40,000+ bbls of crude oil in the first month of production. These are huge wells.

The wells:
  • 33050, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSE 7-151-94, 42K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32796, SI/NC, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 45K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32795, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 44K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
  • 32794, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 47K first month (6/17 -- still conf)
The Clarks Creek wells are followed here.

Early production numbers for these wells:

32796, SI/NC, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 45K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175204993206
7-20175970984999
6-20174548318118

 32795, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 44K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

ateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20174572479899
7-20175073872096
6-2017437481687


32794, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 47K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175114687778
7-20176603994086
6-20174739217014
  33050, SI/NC, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSE 7-151-94, 42K first month (6/17 -- still conf):

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20175706994244
7-20176017085764
6-20174164515762

Selected Data Points From The Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 30, 2017

Some data points (and my comments) from the weekly petroleum report for the week ending August 25, 2017:
  • crude oil refinery inputs up slightly
  • refineries operating at 96.6% of their capacity
  • gasoline production increased; distillate fuel production decreased
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 5.4 million bbls -- now at 457.8 million bbls; this is the middle of the average range for this time of year
  • total gasoline inventories unchanged; near the upper limit of the average range (which makes the spike in gasoline prices even before any effect from Hurricane Harvey highly suspect -- as usual)
  • motor gasoline supplied average 9.7 million bbls/day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year (will this be seen on the weekly graph, yet to be posted?)
********************************
Tesla

In this week's issue of Barron's, the last major essay was written by David Rocker, a retired hedge fund manager who is short Tesla.

Some data points from the article:
  • Tesla requires repetitive capital raises to fund persistent operating losses
  • one of Tesla's major underwriters, Morgan Stanley, has an analyst covering Tesla, Adam Jonas --  "Astonishingly, Jonas raised his price target for Tesla despite recognizing the need to slash his earnings forecast." In May:
    • 2017 - a loss of $3.53; 2018 - a loss of $1.14; 2019 - a profit of $2.43. 
  • revised, his latest:
    • 2017 - a loss of $7.60 (compare to $3.53, just a few months earlier); 2018 - a loss of $3.66 (compare to $1.14 just a few months earlier); and, 2019 -- a profit of $2.01.
Wow.

More from the article:
Tesla has been around for 14 years and has cumulatively lost more than $3.7 billion despite the massive subsidies that it and its customers have received. SolarCity, also a beneficiary of alternative-energy subsidies, lost hundreds of millions of dollars before being bailed out by Tesla. As subsidies diminish, and competition emerges, profits will be even more elusive.
Sales of the Model S and Model X have been flat for four quarters. Tesla's rising inventory and shrinking deposits suggest declining demand (remember: Tesla recently cut the price of its Model X).
In February, 2012, Elon Musk said, "Tesla doesn't need to ever raise another financing round." Nine more financings followed.
Tesla is up again today, and in every typical range (daily, weekly, monthly, YTD, one year, five years, etc), Tesla's share prices, today, are in the green.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I follow Tesla because it helps me put the Bakken into perspective.

And The Number Is ... -- August 30, 2017 -- Down To 27 Weeks To Re-Balance

US crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) decreased by a whopping 5.4 million bbls, down to 457.8 million bbls. Wow.

Weeks to re-balance:

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
33
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35
Week 16
August 16, 2017
8.9
466.5
30
Week 17
August 23, 2017
3.3
463.2
29
Week 18
August 30, 2017
5.4
457.8
27

Notes: on the weeekly re-balancing report. US crude oil reserves declined by 5.4 million bbls this past week. My estimate for re-balancing, if the decline stays on pace (average over past 18 weeks): 27 weeks.

From my perspective, this is much more quickly than I would have predicted just a few months ago. This takes us to the end of the year. I had expected the re-balancing to take us well into 2018, if ever.

Again, for newbies: I define re-balancing as having 350 million bbls of US crude oil in storage (does not include the SPR), or about 22 days of storage.

Comments: some pundits have said that due to Hurricane Harvey, there is simply no more room for oil in the pipelines; they are all backed up because the Gulf coast refiners can't take any more.

Some data points:
  • for the past 18 weeks, US crude oil inventories have decreased
  • the largest US storage area: Cushing, OK -- last time I checked, not impacted by Hurricane Harvey
  • pipelines from Eagle Ford, closed
  • pipelines from the Permian, status?
  • ships off-shore have not been able to download for the past several days (to the best of my knowledge, floating oil is not included in weekly US crude oil inventory numbers)
  • California oil is not affected
  • there are refineries in the northwest, midcontinent, and northeast that were not directly affected by Hurricane Harvey 
  • US gasoline demand near record highs
***********************************
Margaret Sanger: A Life Of Passion
Jean H. Baker
c. 2011
DDS: 363.9BAK

Chapter 1: Maggie Higgins: Daughter of Corning
  • US Civil War
  • Corning glassworks
  • Erie Canal
  • Maggie Higgins: born 1879
  • family's relationship with their Catholic church
  • poor upbringing
  • Erie Railroad bridge that spanned the Chemung River
  • 1895, 16 years old, boarding school
  • failed to complete 8 grades by school, by two weeks
  • enrolled at the Claverack College and Hudson River Institute in 1895/96?
  • a coeducational boarding school near Hudson, NY
  • originally a girls' school; then coeducational; good regional reputation
  • family unable to finance her through graduation; she completed only three years; did not graduate
Chapter 2: Mrs William Sanger of Hastings-on-Hudson
  • 1899, mother dies; Maggie brought home to tend to her dying mother
  • 1900: enters nursing school at the White Plains Hospital outside NYC
  • her goal: medical school; Cornell University in nearby Ithaca, NY 
  • only 5% of US doctors female at that time
  • many male suitors, despite being poor and uneducated
  • new opportunity, coincidentally: nurses needed for the Spanish-American War, in the Philippines
  • nursing schools increased in the US
  • White Plains Hospital was one of the beneficiaries of this new phenomenon
  • tuberculosis scare
  • meets William Sanger, a handsome, freelance draftsman, an aspiring architect and artist; at a dance
  • six months later, abruptly married
  • no longer "Higgins"
  • nurses forbidden to marry and she was expelled from nursing school
  • again, did not graduate
  • five months later, pregnant
  • tuberculosis, national epidemic
  • in a TB sanatorium while pregnant
  • shortly after baby Stuart's birth, Maggie relapsed (TB)
  • second son, born 1908; defiantly pregnant again 13 months later; Margaret (Peggy - born 1910)
  • never pregnant again
  • obviously the couple employed some form of birth control
  • US declining birth rates: by 1900, typical American woman had 3.2 children compared to 7.4 one century earlier
  • doctors saw birth control not as an opportunity to improve women's health, but rather as a hazard threatening their professional practices
  • overwhelmingly, physicians opposed any form of artificial contraception
  • Harvard graduate, president Teddy Roosevelt spoke of "race suicide"
  • in 1910, tranquil life
  • she joined a literary club, reading papers on George Eliot and Robert Browning
Chapter 3: Comrade Sanger
 
The rest of the notes are posted here.

The Peculiarities Of The Bakken -- Random Update Of A CLR Miles Well -- August 30, 2017

The Miles-Kennedy are tracked here

Updating this well:
  • 19121, 567, CLR, Miles 4-6H1, t3/15; cum 138K 6/17; (the strange production profile continues -- file report receive November 22, 2016: a pad fire -- well shut in and fire allowed to burn itself out; location evacuated; Keene FD on-scene); the fire took place February 13, 2015; well back on status; API: 33-053-06174. FracFocus has no data that this well was re-fracked after the original frack in 2015.
Recent monthly production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201724389336185237421142110
BAKKEN5-201723436544785503910691060
BAKKEN4-20173072277377819211427114270
BAKKEN3-201731915093161034823596224831113
BAKKEN2-20172811409112281112023858213782480
BAKKEN1-2017281137711026101561474180786663
BAKKEN12-2016545459824964906
BAKKEN11-2016289454942387481181384803333
BAKKEN10-2016221122110994997613105116491456
BAKKEN9-20169299527242723439227131679
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20165113015561199266626660
BAKKEN6-20163014346142151301126616255301086
BAKKEN5-20162813992136091166624907231691738
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-201519106501137590992038220282100
BAKKEN11-20152816673167441393728966289660
BAKKEN10-20154140472390713461146200
BAKKEN9-201510357436352735656424404124
BAKKEN8-20150000000