Saturday, August 19, 2017

Wow, Wow, Wow! Sempra Is The Mystery Third Bidder For Oncor -- August 19, 2017

Link here. Sempra is the mystery third bidder for Oncor. Warren has said he has made his final offer. If so, it looks like Warren is out of the bidding. I'll leave the poll up just for the fun of it.

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Re-Charging

Some people have written me suggesting that it is "normal" for wells to come back with increased production when they are shut-in for a number of months and then brought back on line. That's not my impression in the Bakken; it may occur (sometimes/often) but I don't know if I can call it "normal" for wells to come back stronger simply from recharging (being taken off-line for several months).

When I see a Bakken well that has significantly increased production after being off-line for a while, I assume it is something other than re-charging until proven otherwise.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. This well is in a great oil field, Clarks Creek, and yet after being off-line for almost a year, there was no bump in production once it was brought back on line (and, yes, perhaps the operator choked it back, limiting production):
  • 20891, 603, EOG, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, t8/11; cum 268K 6/17:
Monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20172525332488713237647962767
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-201610720650
BAKKEN9-20168619746531398132414
BAKKEN8-20163125542666257274790
BAKKEN7-201631233822274993132287610
BAKKEN6-2016302162219645439663579147

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Notes to the Granddaughters

While the older sisters are on their way to Nashville to see the eclipse, Sophia is shopping for groceries for Papa. Yes, she has my credit card. LOL.

A Confusing Well; Perhaps A Reader Has Insight -- August 19, 2017

Updates

November 28, 2017: regardless of what's going on, this is an incredible well:
  • 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/16; cum 227K 11/17; 
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-2017301337713642694544359429661093
SANISH8-2017261527415146511031773275094033
SANISH7-201731164241640163204674446007430
SANISH6-2017301972319472539943560386394621
SANISH5-2017311977120015350832290285073482
SANISH4-2017301244412253165418123178221
SANISH3-20172914195144742132207912049235
SANISH2-2017281271812516219518252179978
SANISH1-2017312009120018276731412250406075
SANISH12-20162716638165762523248741225412367
SANISH11-2016301963219657342424274619017785
SANISH10-201631199562062253982851570627499
SANISH9-2016132071719686427626433126312

Original Post

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I may be seeing things that don't exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Look at this post. I am still unable to explain the jump in production in 9/16 of #25961. [Update, January, 2018: just prior to the jump in production: a work-over rig on site, and a new pump put in; no evidence that is was re-fracked; no sundry form to suggest a re-frack and FracFocus does not show a re-frack.]

Note that all three wells on this 3-well pad were taken off-line 8/16, and then brought back on line in the next month or so. Generally, when one sees that, it means that a neighboring well was fracked.

In this case, when I originally looked at these three wells, I could find no evidence of a neighboring well being fracked.

Today, I took another look.

It turns out a neighboring well was fracked 8/16, the very month that these three wells were taken off-line.

But it still doesn't make sense.

All three wells showed a bump in production, though the Three Forks wells showed a minimum jump in production whereas the middle Bakken well showed a hug jump in production (from 5,000 bbls/month to 14,000 bbls / month). The jump in production did not last particularly long, but it's hard to believe the jump in production from 6,000 bbl/s month to 14,000 bbls/month was due to "recharging" when the well was off-line for less than a month.

I found the well that was fracked in 8/16 that was probably the reason for BR taking these wells off-line:
  • 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool (Three Forks), t9/16; cum 176K 6/17; a "small" frack, only 3.1 million gallons of water; 13% sand by weight;
The graphic:


Again, there are many, many problems with this:
  • distance between horizontals;
  • different formations;
  • closer horizontals, targeting same formations, jump in production much less than #25961
I still feel uncomfortable with this one but another good example of the peculiarities of the Bakken. 

New CLR Florida Wells Starting To Be Reported -- August 19, 2017

Link here.

Note the amount of proppant: 22 million lbs.

Florida wells are tracked here

Saturday, August 19, 2017

Active rigs:

$48.738/19/201708/19/201608/19/201508/19/201408/19/2013
Active Rigs533274192183

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The Bubble

I haven't looked at Scott Adams' blog in a long time. A reader linked me to one of his more recent posts which helps me put events of the past week in context.

It also helps explain the action of the stock market this past week. 

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Notes To The Granddaughters 

At DFW on their way to Nashville, via Atlanta, GA, to see the eclipse.  Daughter and two granddaughters. The third granddaughter, Sophia, will remain here in Grapevine (Dallas) to observe the eclipse with me.