Friday, August 4, 2017

Apple Un-Tethers The Apple Watch -- August 4, 2017

There are two things folks want in the Apple Watch:
  • to measure blood glucose; and,
  • to be un-tethered from the iPhone
Well, it looks like one of those has been resolved. From Bloomberg:
Apple Inc. is planning to release a version of its smartwatch later this year that can connect directly to cellular networks, a move designed to reduce the device’s reliance on the iPhone.
Currently, Apple requires its smartwatch to be connected wirelessly to an iPhone to stream music, download directions in maps, and send messages while on the go.
Equipped with LTE chips, at least some new Apple Watch models, planned for release by the end of the year, will be able to conduct many tasks without an iPhone in range. For example, a user would be able to download new songs and use apps and leave their smartphone at home.
Yes, this is huge.

Now, about that glucose-monitoring.

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Huge Toyota_Mazda Story

Over at The Wall Street Journal

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Good News

Paris Climate Accords: US formally tells UN it wants out. Reported at Fox News but not at LA Times or Wall Street Journal.

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Bad News

Tesla: will need to raise more cash.


Week 31: July 30, 2017 -- August 5, 2017

Stock market (the Dow 30) closes at a record high for the eighth day in a row; it is so incredible that when President Trump tweets about it, his tweets are "censored" by Twitter because it is "politically sensitive." That's how good this week has been; that's how incredible the first six months of President Trump's presidency has been. That follows an incredible jobs report, including the jobless rate ticking down to 4.3%. Now, the pundits are concerned there may not be enough "Americans" to fill all the jobs being added by the economy.

ObamaCare: for all intents and purposes, every health insurer, except Blue Cross/Blue Shield has exited the ObamaCare exchanges. And the health insurers who exited early are all hitting new highs on the stock market. Those who exited late are left holding the bag. Ask Molina. Which begs the question: how much longer can BC/BS stick with ObamaCare?

WTI finally hit $50 but dropped back a bit. Pundits were sure that with Venezuela imploding, the US would be "short" heavy oil. I guess the pundits forgot about Canadian heavy oil. It appears Canadian oil imports have hit an all-time record. Meanwhile, despite "cuts" (wink, wink), OPEC imports are still at near record levels. Only 39 weeks until US "re-balances" crude oil stores.

Saudi: may have stopped the bleeding.

Milestone: China becomes the #1 importer of crude oil, a distinction held by the US .... like "forever." The US is now the #2 importer of crude oil. Already pundits are worried about US refiners. LOL. These pundits seem never to run out of things to worry about.

Record gasoline demand: it was not reported by the mainstream media, but it appears US gasoline demand hit an all-time record.

An aside: nuclear energy in the US is dead.

Joke of the week: residential electricity sales are falling; EIA is blaming the Bakken.

Energy gap between EU and US widens; four posts:
The Bakken finished a week with eleven more wells coming off the confidential list; they were all DUCs. Drilled, uncompleted.

Operations
XTO preparing to frack in the Capa oil field? 
A CLR Holstein Federal well has been updated 
CLR's Holstein Federal wells are telling us a story 
A random look at Slawson's Wolf well in Van Hook (Big Bend) 
Random update of a monster well: an EOG Austin well
Random update of a QEP Levang well in Blue Buttes
Update of Slawson's Torpedo pad in Van Hook
A re-look at CLR's Chimney Butte Candee pad
Update of CLR's Brandvik well
Random look at an EOG Mandaree well drilled back in 2011
Update of Whiting's Chameleon wells
Update of a CLR Rochester well in North Tobacco Garden

Natural Gas
Natural gas production takes front seat in the oil-driven Bakken 

Fracking
Fracking the heck out of CLR's Candee 11-9H in Chimney Butte

Bakken 2.0
Re-fracking works

Bakken Economy
Hiring in the Bakken

Bakken 101
The Pronghorn member

The Political Page, T+196 -- August 4, 2017

All day long, pundits have been asking whether President Trump can take credit for the incredible "jobs number." The answer is yes. Why? It was such an incredible good number coming on Trump's six month in office that Twitter actually censored the news about the huge "jobs number." I can't make this stuff up. Trump should feel vindicated. Trump can tweet about this over the weekend.

Eight Permits Renewed; Five New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- A Good Day In The Bakken -- August 4, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.528/4/201708/04/201608/04/201508/04/201408/04/2013
Active Rigs583375192179

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis (4), Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Stanley (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Oasis has permits for another 4-well pad in Robinson Lake, SESW 7-154-93
Eight permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): three Pronghorn Federal permits, Billings County
  • Crescent Point Energy (2): two Makowsky permits, Williams County
  • Zavanna: one Raven permit, McKenzie County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Marshall permit in Divide County
  • BR: one Glacier permit in McKenzie County
One producing well completed:
  • 33168, 1,268, Enerplus, Whitney 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum -- 
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Sophia on her final leg home, back to DFW.




Historic Milestone: First Time In History -- China #1 In Crude Oil Imports; For First Time, US Drops To #2 -- August 4, 2017

Link here.

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The Energy And Market Page
With A Little Politics

Jobs added under President Trump: 1.07 million.

Breaking news: after today's great jobs report, CNBC said Treasury yields jumped ... the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 2.266%. So, what was it yesterday? 2.23%. That's quite a jump. On a million dollars, that's $360.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

"Stronger dollar" today.

WTI: up 0.88%. Just below $50.

NYSE:
  • new highs, 136, including -- Aetna (exiting all ObamaCare exchanges in 2018); BRK-B; CIGNA (exits Maryland's ObamaCare exchange); Humana (to fully exit ObamaCare in 2018); Raytheon; Northrop Gumman; Weight Watchers. 
  • new lows, 50, including Avon, Blue Apron - I thought earlier this week CNBC was "excited" about Blue Apron, but I could be wrong.
Dow 30: on track to hit another record; would be the 8th consecutive record close (?). S&P 500, Nasdaq in the green. As we move closer to the close, it looks like the numbers are going up ... going into the weekend.  Yup, closed up over 60 points. 8th consecutive record close -- long streak of records since February, 2017. Fox says 8th straight day for record close; CNBC has a crawler says the 9th straight day. On-line CNBC says 8th straight day. Let's see if CNBC changes its crawler. Ah, there it is -- just changed the crawler. Nope, now back to 9th straight day of gains. What is it, eight or nine days?

Let's see:
  • July 19, 21,640
  • July 20, 21,611
  • July 21, 21,580
  • July 24, 21,513
  • July 25, 21,613 - 1
  • July 26, 21,711 - 2
  • July 27, 21,796 - 3
  • July 28, 21,830 - 4
  • July 31, 21,891 -5
  • Aug 1, 21,963 - 6
  • Aug 2, 22,016 -7
  • Aug 3, 22,026 -8
  • Aug 4, 22,092 -9
I see how "they" got nine straight days. It's nine straight days of day-over-day closing highs but the first day (July 25) did not hit a new high. So, both are correct: 8th consecutive record close; 9th consecutive days of gains; very subtle differences. Reuters.

Theme of the day: will there be enough American workers for all the jobs being created? Helloooo.... the labor participation rate is 63%. Now they're worrying about wage inflation.

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Obamacare

Updates

August 7, 2017: Anthem to "bow out of" ObamaCare exchange in Nevada, Georgia, next year (2018). Cited uncertainty for future of ObamaCare as one reason. Losing money might be another reason.

August 1, 2017 (posted August 5, 2017): Link here. Rachel Maddow will not be covering this story.
Monthly premiums for California health insurance plans sold under former President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul will rise by an average of 12.5 percent next year, officials said Tuesday.

A major insurance carrier will also stop offering the plans in most of the state, forcing about 10 percent of people insured through Covered California to buy a new plan. Anthem Blue Cross will continue offering plans only in Santa Clara County and parts of Northern California and the Central Valley.

Covered California’s announcement on 2018 pricing comes at a time of extreme uncertainty about the future of the U.S. health care system. A Republican plan to unwind key pieces of the Affordable Care Act failed in the U.S. Senate last week, but President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged lawmakers to keep working on it. Trump has threatened to end payments that insurance companies receive to keep down out-of-pocket costs for lower-income consumers.

Premiums for consumers on “silver tier” plans, the most popular, could spike even more if those subsidies are taken away, officials said.
The DEMS and three RINOs in the US Senate appear to have no problem with this.


Original Post

The other theme of the day: insurers exiting ObamaCare are hitting new all-time highs. This is NOT the time for Congress to get back into the ObamaCare issue. Let ObamaCare run its course.

I'll come back to this later -- the numbers are clearest yet, listen to the numbers for yourself; enlightening:

Cigna CEO: Obamacare marketplace remains ‘challenging’ for 2017 and 2018 from CNBC:



We'll get the Molina CEO interview later: right now it's live. Molina acting-CEO says rate increases need to be 55%. Wow, rate increases of 55%. Remember, Molina was the darling of ObamaCare advocates. Illinois braces for ObamaCare insurance premiums to jump 43% next year.

Aetna's Bertolini spoke yesterday: "ObamaCare cannot be repealed, period."

BRK earnings: first headline -- mediocre.

Trolling: Newsweek cover? Trolling. No better than a blog. Talk about poor timing -- suggesting Trump administration not doing anything -- when market hits a new record high for the 34th time this year (?).

XTO's Hazel Off-Line -- Preparing To Frack In The Area? -- August 4, 2017

Updates

November 19, 2018: see this post.

July 22, 2018: the graphic has been added; production data has been updated:


July 22, 2018: FracFocus has no data that this well was re-fracked. Recent production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20181110000
BAKKEN2-201823197318225267449827631586
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20176113713172395244610791334
BAKKEN11-201730136761367623731300761464215154
BAKKEN10-201731238162374941636428021320429309
BAKKEN9-201731245954690735957732807
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-2017100062620


Original Post
The well:
  • 16656, 411, XTO, Hazel 44X-22, t10/07; cum 326K 5/18; off-line as of 3/18;
This is a great well. It was taken off-line in June, 2017, suggesting to me that XTO may be planning on fracking in the area. If there is new activity in the area, it will also be interesting to check in on XTO's Linda 41X-22, #19504 at the same time.

The wells likely to be fracked are all on the SI/NC list. Easternmost of the three or four wells of interest is XTO's JMB 14X-15B, #31898.

A little bit of rambling. Back on July 2, 2016, I wrote about #16656:
July 2, 2016: this well (#16656, Hazel 44X-22) has had some jumps in production, especially a 4-fold jump in 8/12 without explanation. There are wells in the area on SI/NC list but the timing doesn't seem right. Check #16656 in a few months. 
Taking a closer look at the wells in the area under discussion, it is interesting that a neighboring well, XTO's Linda 41X-22, #19504, had a similar bump at the very same time (1/12) even though the well was fracked almost a year earlier. Note: Linda is a Three Forks well. Hazel is a three-lateral Middle Bakken well.

I have a hunch that explains the jump in production in both Linda and Hazel in 8/12 but that's way beyond my headlights, so no comments. And don't ask.

The graphic:



Production profiles around August, 2012:

16656:
BAKKEN12-201231400040951504677061500
BAKKEN11-201230386036061220565750570
BAKKEN10-201231362237871052599853780
BAKKEN9-20123039273940101052093694915
BAKKEN8-20122939793718101146871704269
BAKKEN7-20121115601536124726123342030
BAKKEN6-20123061566911810658250
BAKKEN5-2012316596921106934450
BAKKEN4-20123051630584572170
BAKKEN3-2012296623130322900
BAKKEN2-2012265164233255783700
BAKKEN1-20123089111318712059650


19504:
BAKKEN3-201331420839241772521151490
BAKKEN2-201328410641751717561455580
BAKKEN1-201331505651482105518351210
BAKKEN12-201231598257162229353734750
BAKKEN11-201230126711066409428820
BAKKEN10-201230440149021674453444740
BAKKEN9-201230496947132047577757170
BAKKEN8-201231497248531798583353990
BAKKEN7-201231488453521958531948850
BAKKEN6-201230538053252072409436740
BAKKEN5-201231636365832415323728170
BAKKEN4-201225468540272232196716150
BAKKEN3-201229397643321300419337870
BAKKEN2-201229600861062411524848420
BAKKEN1-201231525554153108466442300
BAKKEN12-201129302027851739452041140
BAKKEN11-201130329632701919515247320
BAKKEN10-201126384240642269542950650
BAKKEN9-201124336133071946423739010
BAKKEN8-201131319230631775367736150
BAKKEN7-201131370835052042385837960
BAKKEN6-2011303996419022353633030

Trump's Jobs Numbers Crushes The Forecast; The Energy And Market Page, T+196 -- July 4, 2017

Whoo-hoo! SRE beats. And it's a huge beat. EPS, $1.10 and that's a 23-cent beat. Not trivial. Top line beats by $70 million. Press release here. Wanna bet they mention Mexico? It's an open-book test, and RBN Energy is the primary text.
Sempra Mexico recorded a net loss of $9 million in the second quarter 2017, compared with earnings of $57 million in the second quarter 2016, due primarily to a $47 million impairment the company recorded on the Termo√©lectrica de Mexicali power plant, which is being held for sale, as well as unfavorable foreign-currency and inflation effects. 
For the first six months of 2017, Sempra Mexico had earnings of $39 million, compared with $75 million in the same period last year.
US oil production: US production at its highest since July, 2015, and shale producers like EOG Resources are boasting higher production targets in their earnings reports. And producing more for less.

Futures: up again. All indices in the green, pre-market. Dollar continues to fall; now $1.18 per euro. In Britain, $1.31 will buy you a British pound. I remember paying $1.64 for a British pound when we were stationed there years ago. In 2008, it took almost $2 to buy a British one-pound coin. Ouch.

Trump rally: it's all about the ten-year Treasury. Down to 2.23%. KMI offering $1.2 billion in notes in refinancing effort: 5.5% coupon bonds with notes likely to yield around 3.2%. Wow. Would it surprise anyone if Apple did the same thing? LOL. A quarter-trillion dollars in cash.

Greenspan speaks: on CNBC this morning, a profound statement -- low bond yields won't last forever. Okay.


Jobs: July numbers --
  • forecast: 180,000 jobs added; unemployment to tick down to 4.3%
  • actual: 209,000 jobs added; unemployment rate ticks down to 4.3%; participation rate: 62.9%
  • in addition:
    • June, 2017: revised up from 222K to 231K (huge)
    • May, 2017: revised up from 145K to 152K (huge)
  • record number employed: 153,513,000
Imports / Exports:
  • exports up
  • imports down
  • weak dollar
  • trade balance narrowed for first time in a long time

Widening Differential Between Premium And Regular Gasoline -- RBN Energy -- August 4, 2017

Active rigs:

$48.558/4/201708/04/201608/04/201508/04/201408/04/2013
Active Rigs573375192179

RBN Energy: Widening price differential between premium and regular gasoline.

10-Year Treasury Bond: 2.23%.