Thursday, August 3, 2017

Wow, It Never Quits -- Now Toyota-Mazda To Build $1.6 Billion, 4,000-Job Auto Assembly Plant -- August 3, 2017

From Detroit Free Press, data points:
  • Toyota-Mazda, 50-50 venture; to be operational by 2021
  • production: 300,000 cars annually
  • $1.6 billion; 4,000 employees
  • location yet to be determined
  • US Toyota headquarters is in Plano, Texas
  • US Mazda headquarters is in Irvine, CA
Also:
The new plant comes after Trump escalated criticism of Toyota in January, threatening to implement a border tax if the company did not invest in U.S. production. Toyota announced plans in January to invest $10 billion in U.S. operations over the next five years.
Over the decades, Toyota has developed a massive footprint of plants in the U.S. It includes factories in Kentucky, Alabama, West Virginia, Texas and Indiana, from which it exports more than 160,000 vehicles annually to 40 countries.
Note: just for the record, it's T+195. Just saying.

Major job announcements under President Trump tracked here; not all-inclusive.

The BR Llillibridge Wells In Johnson Corner, Blue Buttes

The graphics:










The Lillibridge wells in Blue Buttes:
  • 28346, 2,400, BR, Lillibridge 41-27TFH-ULW, Blue Buttes, 4 sections, t3/15; cum 371K 5/18;
  • 16571, 476, BR, Lillibridge 11-23H, Blue Buttes, t11/07; cum 232K 6/17;
  • 32908, PA/DRY, BR, Lillibridge 3A MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 32909, 441, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 203K 5/18;
  • 32910, 555, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 257K 5/18;
  • 32911, 524, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 189K 5/18;
  • 32912, 413, BR, Lillibridge-Veeder 3E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 217K 5/18;
The Lillibridge wells in Johnson Corner:
  • 29875, 1,483, BR, Morgan 41-28TFH ULW, Johnson Corner, t11/15; cum 215K 5/18;
  • 28274, 2,485, BR, Lillibridge 11-27MBH NY, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t10/14; cum 218K 5/18;
  • 27306, 1,523, BR, Lillibridge 21-27TFH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t10/14; cum 215K 5/18;
  • 27308, 1,683, BR, Lillibridge 21-27MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t9/14; cum 172K 5/18;
  • 23645, 2,926, BR, Lillibridge 24-22MBH 2NH, Johnson Corner, t7/13; cum 345K 5/18; jump in production; come back and check this well again in late 2017
  • 23647, 2,886, BR, Lillibridge 24-22TFH 3NH, Johnson Corner, t7/13; cum 274K 5/18;
  • 17323, 110, BR, Mary Ann 1-15H, Johnson Corner, t8/08; cum 438K 5/18; see below;
  • 28347, 1,656, BR, Lillibridge 41-27MBH, Johnson Corner, 4 sections, t3/15; cum 287K 5/18;
See #17323 at this post.

The Hess HA-Grimestad Wells

The Hess HA-Grimestad wells:
  • 32745, PNC, Hess, HA-Grimestad-LE-152-95-3032H-2, Hawkeye,
  • 32744, 1,947, Hess, HA-Grimestad-LE-152-95-3031H-1, Hawkeye, t5/17; cum 120K 10/18;
  • 32743, 1,723, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-9, Hawkeye, t5/17; cum 190K 10/18;
  • 32742, 1,996, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-8, Hawkeye, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, large (40/70); small (30/50); t5/17; cum 183K 10/18;
  • 32741, 397, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-7, t7/17; cum 129K 10/18;
  • 31933, 1,155, Hess, HA-Grimestad-LW-152-95-3031H-1, Clear Creek, t7/16; cum 211K 10/18;
  • 31932, 1,233, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-6, Hawkeye, Three Forks, 36 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t7/16; cum 137K 10/18;
  • 31931, 1,343, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-5, Hawkeye, t7/16; cum 182K 10/18;
  • 31930, 630, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-4, Hawkeye, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t7/16; cum 161K 10/18;
  • 23010, 798, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-3, Hawkeye, t11/12; cum 202K 10/18;
  • 23009, 815, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-2, Hawkeye, t11/12; cum 223K 10/18;
  • 16831, 354, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-1, Hawkeye, t2/-8; cum 311K 10/18;

Four New Permits -- August 3, 2017

Valero signs deal with Sempra Energy to export refined products to Mexico

Don't bet against Oprah Winfrey: Weight Watchers surges 15% after-hours after crushing earnings report.

Like him, hate him, this was a historic moment on Wall Street. I feel fortunate to have seen this live. I was most impressed how calm Erin remained calm/composed in the presence of what  appeared to be a mad man breaking down on live television. My biggest disappointment: Erin moved on.

 
Active rigs:

$48.938/3/201708/03/201608/03/201508/03/201408/03/2013
Active Rigs583474194179

Four new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis 
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Oasis has permits for a 4-well pad in 7-154-93
One permit renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy: a Makowsky permit in Williams County
Dry hole reported:
  • 22839, dry, Statoil, Gunderson 15-22 HN, Banks; failed cement casing;

Thursday Night Football -- August 3, 2017

Don't quote me on this but it appears NFL football will be aired on NBC tonight -- 7:00 p.m. Central, Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals. Pre-season. Break out the edamame and Suntory. LOL. If only. Edamame, yes. I can't afford Suntory.

Will this be the theme song?


The Political Page, T+195 -- August 3, 2017

Updates

August 17, 2017: source -- http://joannenova.com.au/2017/08/australia-denmark-germany-vie-to-win-highest-global-electricity-cost-its-the-nobel-price-prize/.



Later, 3:44 p.m. Central Time: see comments. For Australian pricing, see http://aemo.com.au/. I just looked -- yes, the pricing is insane. Check the spot price in about 45 minutes -- about 4:30 p.m. Central Time to get an idea. Right now, South Australia spot price is about $AUS 130/MWh, compared to the outrageous price of $60/MWh right now in New England. $1AUS = 0.8 USD. So, I assume AUSD $130/MWh works out to about 83 USD.

Later, 3:41 p.m. Central Time: see comments. Connecticut proposing "conservation fee" (aka, a new tax) on heating oil for those who use heating oil to heat their homes.

Original Post

If I did not blog, I would not have known this: the highest electric rates in the world are in Denmark.

For new plants/farms:
  • coal/natural gas: $1 million/MW or less
  • wind, on-shore: $3 million/MW
  • wind, off-shore: $5 million/MW
  • solar: $6 million/MW
Who has a lot of off-shore wind? Denmark.

Which country has the highest electric rates? Oh, I already noted that.

Now this: South Australia now has the highest electric rates in the world. Absolutely crazy; Australia is energy-rich; why in the world did it get sucked into this fad? Musk Melon said he could solve Australia's problem in less than 100 days. From the linked source:
As of July 1, 2017, electricity prices in the state of South Australia are the highest in the world, exceeding Denmark’s due to price increases of between 15.3 and 19.9 percent by its three major electric utilities.
In nearby New South Wales the problem is not much better, with more than 60,000 households at risk of having their power cut off because they cannot afford the bills.

Further, South Australia is faced with the possibility of brownouts and blackouts due to the intermittency of wind power. During a power outage last September, electricity prices rose to 200 cents per kilowatt-hour—about 20 times higher than the average U.S. electricity price. The blackout, which impacted 1.7 million people, started when a wind farm suddenly stopped providing 200 megawatts of power and destabilized the grid. Despite the blackout and high prices, South Australia plans to invest another $100 million in renewable energy.

South Australia’s reliance on wind power makes large blackouts more likely because the electricity generated is intermittent and does not coincide with the times of day when power is needed most. Intermittent renewable energy, wind and solar power, represent 53 percent of South Australia’s electricity mix. What’s more, the state closed its last coal-fired power station, thereby providing less back-up power during peak demand.
The shut down of the coal-fired generator at Port Augusta last year destroyed a supply of affordable energy for the state’s households and businesses.

Major businesses in South Australia have threatened to suspend operations entirely until the electricity price is lowered and some smaller operations have already closed.
There is so much more at the link, but this is a good start.

EDI.

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Aetna Reports Great Earnings -- Pulling Out Of ObamaCare

Huge interview with the Aetna CEO on CNBC. Something tells me the mainstream media is starting to see the failure of ObamaCare.

Aetna will pull out of ObamaCare in all states by 2018.

Another One Bites The Dust -- Bloomberg -- August 3, 2017

I've always said it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. I try very hard not to predict prices, but I often succumb. I digress. Here's one fool who tried betting on the price of oil. From Bloomberg:
Andy Hall, the oil trader sometimes known in markets as “God,” is closing down his main hedge fund after big losses in the first half of the year.
The capitulation of one of the best-known figures in the commodities industry comes after muted oil prices wrong-footed traders from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to BP Plc’s in-house trading unit. Hall’s flagship Astenbeck Master Commodities Fund II lost almost 30 percent through June.
Hall shot to fame during the global financial crisis when Citigroup Inc. revealed that, in a single year, he pocketed $100 million trading oil for the U.S. bank. His career stretches back to the 1970s and includes stints at BP and legendary trading house Phibro Energy Inc., where he was chief executive officer.
“Andy Hall is one of the grandees of oil trading,” said Jorge Montepeque, a senior vice president of trading at Italian energy major Eni SpA.
Hall is the latest high-profile commodity hedge-fund manager to succumb to the industry’s low volatility and lack of trending markets. At least 10 asset managers in natural resources have closed since 2012. Goldman Sachs reported its worst-ever result trading commodities in the second quarter. [One reader of the blog frequently suggested GS was often talking its own book, seemingly trying to move the market for its benefit, not necessarily the benefit of the customer.]
Oil hedge funds such as Astenbeck wagered earlier this year that production cuts led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would send prices climbing. Yet, their bets backfired as U.S. shale producers boosted output and Libya and Nigeria recovered from outages caused by domestic disturbances and civil war. [And the fact that Saudi Arabia simply emptied some of its above-ground storage and never did cut exports -- until recently?]
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The Apple Page

Updates

Later, 7:10 p.m. Central Time: see comments. Microsoft considers its Surface to be a "laptop" and not a "tablet" according to the TV commercial preceding the NFL's opening Thursday Night Football game, August 3, 2017, in Canton, Ohio.

Original Post
 
This begs the question: who are all "the others" selling "tablets"?

Note, the top five tablet companies account for 56% of all units shipped, and Amazon, #5, accounts for less than 4%. What companies can possibly account for the other 44% of units shipped?

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The Apple Watch

One of my favorite Apple Watch posts was from March 9, 2015. If folks have followed the Apple Watch story, they know that analysts were unimpressed with the Apple Watch when it was first unveiled. So, how has it done?

From Macrumors:
Apple shipped an estimated 2.8 million Apple Watch units in the June quarter, an increase of 56 percent from an estimated 1.8 million shipments in the year-ago quarter.
"Sales of Apple Watch were up over 50 percent in the June quarter," said Cook. "It's the number one selling smartwatch in the world by a very wide margin." 
I particularly liked the graphic I put together using a couple of Apple graphics:


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AirPods

Severely constrained ... and selling for $159.

From Macrumors:
During today's earnings call covering the third fiscal quarter of 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook briefly mentioned the company's super popular hard-to-come-by wireless earphones, the AirPods.

According to Cook, production capacity has been bumped up, but because of the high level of demand, Apple is still unable to make enough to reach supply/demand balance.
We're also seeing incredible enthusiasm for AirPods. 98 percent customer satisfaction based on Creative Strategy's survey. We have increased production capacity for AirPods and are working very hard to get them to customers as quickly as we can, but we are still not able to meet the strong level of demand.
Priced at $159, Apple's AirPods are wire-free earphones that feature Bluetooth and an Apple-designed W1 chip for a better connection and simple transfers between different devices. AirPods are equipped with an infrared sensor to detect when they're in the ear, and they support a range of touch-based gestures.

US Gasoline Demand Hits New Record? -- August 3, 2017

Coincides with RV sales hitting all-time highs.

RV sales hitting all-time records.

RV sales data, for June, 2017:
  • wholesale shipments: 
    • exceeded 40,000 units for the fourth consecutive month
    • June, 2017: 47,416 units; an increase of 18% yoy
    • June, 2016: 40,072 units
    • 1H17: 256,430 units; up 13% yoy
  • motorhome shipments:
    • June, 2017: up 6% to 5,176 units
    • YTD: up 14% over same period last year; up to 32,786 units, first six months of the year
Compare with total EV sales of 105,000 units in 2017, through July. RV units through June: 256,430 (note, these are wholesale deliveries, not retail sales, I believe)
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Gasoline Demand

It appears US gasoline demand has hit a new record.



Weeks in which gasoline demand exceeded an average of 9.8 million bopd:

Canadian Imported Crude Oil -- August 3, 2017

US refineries are, in general, optimized for heavy oil. Heavy oil sources for the US:
  • Mideast (Saudi Arabia, Iraq)
  • Venezuela
  • Canada
As Venezuela implodes and questions arise over reliability of Venezuelan crude oil, it may be interesting to follow Canadian crude oil imports (into the US).


Over 125 million bbls/month:
  • prior to 2015: never? the jump post-2014 has been striking
  • 2015: one month (December)
  • 2016: two months (bookends)
  • 2017: three out of the first five months
The Keystone XL? Not critical but it would be nice.

This might take a second or two to re-fresh:


OPEC Imports Still High; The Market And Energy Page, T+195 -- August 3, 2017

Futures: Dow 30 flat; Nasdaq still has a bit of life, up 6 points.

Bank of England: leaves rates unchanged.

NRG: reports a loss of $1.98. NRG shares have doubled since the beginning of the year; the stock has increased 78% in the last 12 months. Today, NRG is up over 3% in pre-market trading.

APA: misses but reports a profit of $1.50 vs a loss in the same period a year earlier. APA down about 2% in pre-market trading.

CNP: beats forecast; 29 cents vs 20 cents forecast. Revenues of $2.14 billion vs $1.79 billion. Shares up about 1% in pre-market trading.

********************************
Weekly Energy Data

See graphics here.

See Saudi imports, most recent posted EIA data.

Venezuela, not much change.

OPEC data, note:
  • Saudi surge, from November 2014 - November 2016
  • November, 2016: OPEC announces cut in production (not exports)
  • OPEC imports: in May, 2017 (most recent EIA data posted at this site) -- 

Active Rigs At 59 -- August 3, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.848/3/201708/03/201608/03/201508/03/201408/03/2013
Active Rigs593474194179

RBN Energy: Permian natural gas -- update.

Heavy oil: Venezuelan implosion starting to impact heavy oil? Interesting story over at Reuters. Phillips 66 noting problem.

Ten-year Treasury: 2.26%.

Shale drillers show few signs of slowing as profits expand: Bloomberg -- data points:
four of the biggest US drillers said they are not backing away from lofty production targets for 2017
  • EOG, Devon, Newfield, Diamondback Eenrgy -- all outlined goals that would help push US output toward a record 10 million bopd per year
  • even Pioneer Natural Resources: trimmed the top of its forecast due to delays int he Permaian, still expects to increase oil and natural gas volumes by 16%
  • much more at the link
Big oil still vulnerable: European oil companies pessimistic -- Royal Dutch Shell; Total; and BP -- Bloomberg.

Foxconn considering a second Wisconsin facility; this one in Dane County, second-most populous county in Wisconsin; Madison is the Dane County seat.

ObamaCare: Molina health insurer; darling of the ObamaCare supporters; citing huge losses has exited Wisconsin and Utah; will leave at least one county in Wisconsin with no insurers. Molina will cut 1,500 jobs.Will increase rates sharply in markets Molina still serves.
Molina, a major player in Medicaid health plans and the ACA, fired Chief Executive Officer Mario Molina and Chief Financial Officer John Molina in May. The company is still searching for a permanent leader as interim CEO Joseph White, who is also the finance chief, takes action to improve results. White told investors the company failed to properly prepare for an influx of customers over the past several years fueled by the Affordable Care Act.
ObamaCare: old news, missed but worth posting -- Maryland: largest insurer in the Mid-Atlantic region CareFirst Blue Cross Blue Shield has requested a staggering 50% yoy premium increase.

More ObamaCare: Link here. Rachel Maddow will not be covering this story.
Monthly premiums for California health insurance plans sold under former President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul will rise by an average of 12.5 percent next year, officials said Tuesday.

A major insurance carrier will also stop offering the plans in most of the state, forcing about 10 percent of people insured through Covered California to buy a new plan. Anthem Blue Cross will continue offering plans only in Santa Clara County and parts of Northern California and the Central Valley.

Covered California’s announcement on 2018 pricing comes at a time of extreme uncertainty about the future of the U.S. health care system. A Republican plan to unwind key pieces of the Affordable Care Act failed in the U.S. Senate last week, but President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged lawmakers to keep working on it. Trump has threatened to end payments that insurance companies receive to keep down out-of-pocket costs for lower-income consumers.

Premiums for consumers on “silver tier” plans, the most popular, could spike even more if those subsidies are taken away, officials said.
The DEMS and three RINOs in the US Senate appear to have no problem with this.


Jobs: first time unemployment claims, pending --
  • forecast: 242,810
  • actual: drop of 5,000 from revision of 245,00 last week (up 1,000 on the revision)
  • actual: right at 240,000
EV sales: report for July complete. Total US sales, 2016 and 2017:


2,016
2,017
YOY Change
January
6,221
11,004
77%
February
7,763
12,375
59%
March
13,857
18,542
34%
April
10,531
13,365
27%
May
11,467
16,788
46%
June
14,863
17,182
16%
July
13,067
15,607
19%




Total to date
77,769
104,863
35%