Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Allam Cycle Production Plant Update -- August 2, 2017

This is for the archives. I've only mentioned "Allam" once on the blog; I've mentioned La Porte, Texas, a couple of times.

For background, three links:
The first Allam power cycle production plant is scheduled to come on-line later this year in La Porte, TX.

A reader suggested that with the (somewhat unexpected) large gas production in North Dakota, one has to wonder if it might make more sense to use natural gas directly rather than convert coal to gas (at least initially), using the Allam cycle.

If one considers the amount of lignite in North Dakota, one can think of our state as a huge energy producer (Allam power cycle) not in terms of decades but in terms of centuries.

Allam cycle is essentially zero emissions, as I understand it. Algore would be thrilled.

The reader went on: due to population differences, fossil fuel energy's impact on a NoDak is 15x that of Texas' energy on a Texan. That applies to tax revenue and overall economy.

If the Allam cycle production plant in Texas is a success, there might be huge opportunities in North Dakota.

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Meanwhile, In Michigan ...

From The Detroit Free Press, data points:
  • plans to build "a state of the art" natural gas power plant to replace two outmoded plants burning coal
  • $1 billion plant
  • 1,100 MW
  • 100 acres
  • power for about 850,000 homes beginning in 2022
  • slightly less than $1 million / MW 
  • unlike wind/solar: dispatchable; instant on/off
  • because of the dependability of wind/solar and the fact that they still  have night in Michigan, the natural gas plant is likely to be running 65% of the time

Reposting / Updating Production Profile Of An Early CLR Holstein Federal Well -- August 2, 2017

The Holstein Federal wells are tracked here.

The production profile of this Holstein Federal well has been previously posted, but this is simply quite remarkable, and tells a story. Note:
  • this well was fracked 2/14 and has not been re-fracked
  • this well is still flowing; no pump
  • dreaded Bakken decline rate? I don't see it
  • see the slide "Midland Type Curve" and note the curve indicated by the arrow on the slide
Production profile of a selected Holstein Federal well:
  • 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 534K 6/17; still without a pump, as of 6/17;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173024947252623000637210343352860
BAKKEN5-20172924830244454312534239310943131
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20172713692136641311018084163351511
BAKKEN12-201631182561803818636254222516593
BAKKEN11-201677931156651361123421
BAKKEN10-20163119316192193496250132443993
BAKKEN9-20163017681176712572224812233190
BAKKEN8-2016312047620555351926261224883413
BAKKEN7-20163121432214233827283372777993
BAKKEN6-2016302194921884402228284264841350
BAKKEN5-20163122812228504275288262826893
BAKKEN4-20161514135138681407163351607542
BAKKEN3-20162217231174853322231662278566
BAKKEN2-20162822512226844118289602887684
BAKKEN1-2016312781627566531634135319392196
BAKKEN12-201531242152435143952864028415225
BAKKEN11-20153021356212333387218412175190
BAKKEN10-20153121277213273317249072481493
BAKKEN9-2015302219822368401827596263921204
BAKKEN8-2015311951219459252419752121307622
BAKKEN7-2015313048230535602437990367821208
BAKKEN6-201530323013244365134389243622270
BAKKEN5-201531241122386539882748427243241
BAKKEN4-2015301286812830128013628117721856
BAKKEN3-20153111716120341347101709468702
BAKKEN2-2015282162121284373821643145277116
BAKKEN1-20157489645360697206972

Eleven New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; CLR's Holstein Federal Wells Are Telling Us A Story -- August 2, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.568/2/201708/02/201608/02/201508/02/201408/02/2013
Active Rigs593474194179

Eleven new permits:
  • Operators: Crescent Point Energy (8); WPX (3)
  • Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams); Mandaree (Dunn)
  • Comments: Crescent Point with permits for two 4-well pads, one in 8-157-99, one in 9-157-99; WPX with permits for a 3-well permit in 5-148-99
Six permits renewed, all by CLR:
  • CLR: six Colter permits in Dunn County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30344, 1,536, CLR, Holstein Federal 12-25H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --
  • 30346, 1,494, CLR, Holstein Federal 10-25H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --
  • 30345, 1,138, Holstein Federal 11-25H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum --
I track the Holstein Federal wells here.

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Some Notes On The Holstein Federal Wells
Track the Holstein Federal wells here

These four wells remain on the SI/NC list, but all have been fracked.
29936, API: 33-053-06449, a Three Forks second bench well; according to FracFocus, fracked 2/17/17:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173017520174723741425692223493277
BAKKEN5-20176337740691036545924020540
BAKKEN4-2017382107170100201002

29936, API: 33-053-06448, according to FracFocus, fracked 2/17/17:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173035698359152474348633423056203
BAKKEN5-201781508016650842319828173582330
BAKKEN4-20173214708438147801478

29934, API: 33-053-06447, according to FracFocus, fracked 3/11/17:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173024417247273948833771293774307
BAKKEN5-2017914527141602015119125167432247
BAKKEN4-2017118901152000

29933, API: 33-053-06446, according to FracFocus, fracked 3/11/17:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173035750358432899549335429176292
BAKKEN5-201781184911396741613131114951543
BAKKEN4-20170000000

********************************************

Look at the production jump in this phenomenal Holstein Federal well,
27564, API: 33-053-05653:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173024947252623000637210343352860
BAKKEN5-20172924830244454312534239310943131
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20172713692136641311018084163351511
BAKKEN12-201631182561803818636254222516593
BAKKEN11-201677931156651361123421
BAKKEN10-20163119316192193496250132443993
BAKKEN9-20163017681176712572224812233190
BAKKEN8-2016312047620555351926261224883413
BAKKEN7-20163121432214233827283372777993

Look at the production jump in this phenomenal Holstein Federal well,
32294 API: 33-053-07411:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20173037719376952517654233441739821
BAKKEN5-20173029334292464446241743378453665
BAKKEN4-2017326022240100
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20175169218327582396229212
BAKKEN1-201731269792694479333312232439390
BAKKEN12-201631384023854714249531755256393
BAKKEN11-201681281912355117661563514932528

***********************************
Every Production Profile Tells A Story

Every Picture Tells A Story, Rod Stewart

Rain Impacting Bakken Operations? -- August 2, 2017

From The Herald via Twitter four hours ago:
Because of the impact rain is having on county roads, Williams County is not allowing oversize movement on county roads until further notice.
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Quick Look At Midland: Filloon

Over at SeekingAlpha. At the link, this is the well I'm interested in (see graphic):


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TCM

Nice discussion regarding Columbo and Dial M For Murder.

A Random Look At Slawson's Wolf Well In Van Hook (Big Bend), #17505 -- August 2, 2017

On/about April 15, 2016, Slawson requested to place this well on the TA (temporary abandon) list for economic reasons, saying it would bring the well back to active (A) status once economic conditions improved. The NDIC denied the request on/about May, 2016. Check to see what happened next.

This well was shut-in for 24 months or so, before finally coming back on line.
  • 17505, 309, Slawson, Wolf 1-4H, Van Hook (I believe this is an error; it looks like it is in Big Bend); t7/09; cum 198K 6/17; API: 33-061-00823.
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Bees Back From The Brink

That's the theme of the Bloomberg article. Things aren't quite that simple, but here's the lede:
The number of U.S. honeybees, a critical component to agricultural production, rose in 2017 from a year earlier, and deaths of the insects attributed to a mysterious malady that’s affected hives in North America and Europe declined, according a U.S. Department of Agriculture honeybee health survey released Tuesday.

The number of commercial U.S. honeybee colonies rose 3 percent to 2.89 million as of April 1, 2017 compared with a year earlier, the Agriculture Department reported. The number of hives lost to Colony Collapse Disorder, a phenomenon of disappearing bees that has raised concerns among farmers and scientists for a decade, was 84,430 in this year’s first quarter, down 27 percent from a year earlier. Year-over-year losses declined by the same percentage in April through June, the most recent data in the survey.

Still, more than two-fifths of beekeepers said mites were harming their hives, and with pesticides and other factors still stressing bees, the overall increase is largely the result of constant replenishment of losses, the study showed.
No comment. I get it.

Wednesday US Crude Oil Data In Three Charts -- August 2, 2017



US Crude Oil: Weeks To Re-Balance -- August 2, 2017

US crude oil reserves fell less than expected in latest report. This link will download a PDF on your screen: .

Weeks to re-balance: 39 weeks (up from 38 weeks following previous report):

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
39


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The Myth Persists

A reader sent me the link to this CNBC article: OPEC wants oil above $50, but US shale producers won't play along.

I replied:
Saudi Arabia is doing a great job in perpetuating this myth, that ND and TX won't play along.
In fact, as I posted on the blog earlier this week, total OPEC production has hit new records (mostly due to Iraq).
Saudi Arabia has a problem; it's not ND, TX. Saudi Arabia's problem is Iraq, Iran, and Libya.
I assume it was Saudi money that was behind all the efforts to kill shale crude oil pipelines and all the anti-fracking activity. Not all Saudi money but a huge portion of it.
Later: the reader reminds me that Putin was also involved in the US anti-fracking, anti-pipeline movement.

There's Always Two Sides Of The Story -- August 2, 2017

The other day I posted this photo:


Today, I woke up to this headline:



I'm not sure how the pilots are doing but Sophia is safe and sound, back on the ground. I'll get her side of the story later. LOL.

Sophia was heard to have said this: any landing you walk away from, was a good landing.

Dow Hits 22,000 -- August 2, 2017

I was barely able to get this screenshot -- almost missed it ... if you can't read it, the first bullet:

EOG is the largest US E&P company.

The screenshot, from CNBC, 8:43.07 a.m. Central Time:


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Texas With Bragging Rights?

From the EIA today:
EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS) recently released 2015 data estimates for all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The estimates include data on both total energy consumption and energy consumption per capita, which is calculated by dividing total consumption by population.

In 2015, Texas consumed a total of 13 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), or about 13% of total U.S. energy consumption. Texas has consumed the most energy in every year since 1960, the earliest year for which EIA has data. 
Ranking second in energy use, California consumed a total of 8 quadrillion Btu, about 8% of U.S. total energy use. 
Louisiana, Florida, and Illinois round out the top five energy-consuming states, which together account for more than one-third of total U.S. total energy use.
Total energy consumption by the top 10 states exceeded the combined energy use of the other 41 states (including the District of Columbia). --- EIA
California would consume much more energy but high tech companies in California outsource much (most?) of their manufacturing to China, Taiwan, elsewhere.