Friday, June 2, 2017

"I Did It My Way" -- President Donald Trump -- June 2, 2017

Updates

June 4, 2017: Trump's decision scuttles the EU-China summit on trade, global warming.

June 3, 2017: after Trump announces decision to exit the Paris climate accord, NYT with headline story: "new sheriff in town."

Original Post 

On November 23, 2016, this post from the blog: We've Had Two Lost Decades -- Will The Next Ten Years Be America's Decade?

Not exactly full decades but I was referring to the George Bush presidency as the first lost decade and then the Obama presidency as the second lost decade. ("Lost Decade" is a tag at the bottom of the blog. That tag first began with the Bush presidency.)

It is interesting that today's unemployment report reported the lowest unemployment rate in 16 years. Sixteen years: that's exactly two eight-year presidential terms. Amazing, isn't it?

We all know that full employment doesn't necessarily mean what it seems but one can't keep moving the goal posts. U3, U5, U6, whatever. And the goal posts the past 16 years has been U3 and now Trump has the lowest U3 in 16 years.

We're starting to see a lot of "positive" articles from fly-over country. For example: How ‘the Energy Capital of the Nation’ regained its optimism in the Trump era" in The Washington Post. Yes, The Washington Post. About the Wyoming coal industry.

First, note the headline (again, this is The Washington Post): "in the Trump era." Donald Trump has been president for less than six months. It's T+135 or thereabouts. And already The Washington Post is calling "it" the Trump era. Eras generally last a long time. For presidents, at least eight years and then whatever might follow from there. And generally, in politics, "era" is associated with "good times," like the Eisenhower era, or the Reagan era. I've not heard his era referred to as the Bush era. And surprisingly, I've not seen the headline, the Obama era. A google search proves me wrong, but colloquially the "Obama era" has a somewhat hollow ring to it. I suppose it has to do with "eras" needing to be associated with "something." No one can really list any Obama-era successes (except getting Bin Laden; healthcare; and ... well, that's about it). I certainly cannot list any successes during the "Bush era."

There would have been a Kennedy era, no doubt, but his presidency was way too short to qualify.

But here we are, less than six months into a new administration, and The Washington Post already headlines "The Trump Era."

[I think there's been more interest / more excitement in Trump's first five months than there was in Obama's entire eight years. The Sean Spicer show is "must-see television." SNL knows a good thing when they see it. On the other hand, Obama seems more exciting out of office than in office now that he's free to be himself, as he told Vladimir.]

A nexus word search is going to put "the Trump era" and "optimism" separated by one word (in). So we have: "optimism in the Trump era." Less than five months into his presidency. And almost no speeches (except at his "thank you" rallies).

Listening to talking heads on liberal business networks today suggested that if the three major indices had all hit new records and that unemployment was at a 16-year low and there were no new wars (yet) and inflation was not on the radar scope and Hillary were president, the talking heads would have been all over themselves exalting over the "miracle of Hillary."

Now back to the linked article. It's story about ... coal. You have got to be kidding. "Optimism." "The Trump era." "Coal." Six months ago, who wudda thunk (certainly not Hillary -- six months after THE loss, and she is a) still in stage 2 of the seven stages of grief; and, b) delusional).

So, here we are.

Less than five months into the Trump presidency, we already have the three major indices hitting record highs and unemployment at its lowest rate in 16 years. Ferguson is not burning; Baltimore is not imploding.

Walking away from the Paris climate accords sent a strong message to the rest of the world. Probably more than one message. Two messages:
  • the voters who elected Trump were mad as hell and weren't going to take it any more; and,
  • when his presidency is over, his theme song could very well be, I did it my way.
I Did It My Way, Frank Sinatra

Six Days On The Road -- June 2, 2017


Six Days On The Road, Taj Mahal


Current location. Watching our older granddaughter at water polo practice. In about 20 minutes we will be heading south, back to Grapevine. Should be a very, very interesting drive. Something tells me, it's gonna feel like six days on the road.


Week 22: May 28, 2017 -- June 3, 2017

Wow, this has been an incredible week. Despite the OPEC cut (wink, wink) global crude oil supplies actually increased during the first quarter 2017. The price of oil continues to fall and already the extension of the OPEC / Russia cut seems to be falling apart. One wonders if the current agreement will even amount to anything, now that two countries who have no caps (Libya and off-hand I forget the other one -- maybe Iran) are increasing their production. After months of naysayers telling us US shale could not "make up" the cuts in oil production by OPEC / Russia, it's now being reported what we all knew: The US could add up to 1.5m barrels per day to global oil production next year, nullifying the impacts from the deal, which was extended by nine months.

Meanwhile, the US economy is on a tear, at least by some metrics. There were no headline stories today but the US unemployment rate is at a 16-year low. Again, at a 16-year low -- and no one is dancing in the streets. It just doesn't feel that good. Meanwhile, US markets scored a hat trick: all three major indices hit new records this week.

My biggest surprise: President Trump made it crystal clear that the US was leaving the Paris climate accord. I would have lost that bet; I was sure he would have waffled, threading the needle, perhaps by saying the US would abide but he wanted the US Senate to weigh in. Both Ivanka and Jared failed to attend the Thursday afternoon announcement. The story will have legs through this weekend's Sunday morning talk shows and then will quietly go away, mostly because Germany's Angela Merkel doesn't want to admit she really, really blew it. Meanwhile, the US economic engine will gather steam to further widen the gap between the US and the rest of the world. 

International:
Global crude oil supplies increased first three months of 2017 (during the OPEC cut); perhaps this is why
US exits Paris climate "agreement" 

National:
The number of US rigs now back to pre-surge number and "more of the same" likely
US refiners are processing crude oil at a pace never seen before

Operations
BR to place 16 wells in one drilling unit 
CLR to place 12 wells in one drilling unit
Statoil to place 8 wells on one pad
Random update of Whiting's drilling program northwest of Belfield

Fracking
EOG reports a well completed with almost 12 million lbs of sand  
an MRO re-frack

Pipelines
Faulty story about faulty leak

Miscellaneous
Bhutan: North Dakota #1 in immigrants from Bhutan 

Hess With Seven New Permits -- June 2, 2017

Active rigs:

$47.746/2/201706/02/201606/02/201506/02/201406/02/2013
Active Rigs512581188187
 Seven new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments: all seven permits for wells in SESW 36-151-96 (see graphic below)
One permit canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt: an Olson permit, in Mountrail County
The graphic: the general location for the wells proposed by Hess in today's Daily Activity Report; the seven will be in a single line, parallel to the south line; based on their names, they will run south to north.


Other wells in this drilling unit:
  • 18053, 467, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-1, t10/09; cum 256K 4/17; off-line much of the past six months;
  • 24506, 1,065, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-5, t7/13; cum 190K 4/17;
  • 24505, 659, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-4, t8/13; cum 120K 4/17;
  • 24504, IA/827, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-3, t8/13; cum 166K 4/17; off-line since 7/16; a sundry from says an NGL stripping unit was to placed; a pump placed and the well shut-in; I assume the same for the others
  • 24503, IA/733, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-2, t8/13; cum 90K 4/17; off-line since 5/16;

From The June, 2017, Hearing Dockets -- BR To Place 16 Wells In One Drilling Unit -- June 2, 2017

Interesting case in June, 2017, hearing dockets. NOTE: this is a "case" -- not permits. This may or may not occur for months, years, or even "ever."
  • Case 25857, BR, Westberg-Bakken, 16 wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 2/11/14/23-152-97, McKenzie.
Graphic:



Only two wells in these four sections at the moment:
19750, 2,338, BR, Devils Backbone 21-14H, Westberg, t4/11; cum 258K 4/17;
22598, 444, CLR, Randolph 1-2H, Westberg, t6/12; cum 365K 4/17;

Grand Opening Today -- Huge Plano-Based Legacy West -- $3.2 Billion Development North Of DFW -- Home Of Toyota -- June 2, 2017

Many, many links, including a full-page spread in today's Dallas Morning News.

Some links:

CLR To Put Twelve New Wells In An Existing 1280-Acre Oakdale Unit -- June 2, 2017

From the June, 2017, dockets:

Case 25901, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 34-147-96 and 3-146-96, Dunn County

I track the Oakdale oil field here

Other producing wells in this section:
  • 17061, 664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, t6/08; cum 427K 4/17; 
  • 20208, 960, CLR, Hawkinson 2-27H, Oakdale, 4-section spacing, Three Forks; 24 stages, 2.4 million lbs; t9/11; cum 390K 4/15; 
In the southwest corner of section 3-146-96:
  • 33120, drl, CLR, Mountain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 33121, drl, CLR, Mountain Gap 8-10H1, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 33122, drl, CLR, Mountain Gap 9-10H2, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 33123, drl, CLR, Mountain Gap 10-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 

The June, 2017, Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies.

What jumps out at you scrolling through the June dockets?
  • lots of commingling
  • many, many requests for SWD wells
  • few pooling cases
  • no flaring cases
Highlights
June 28, 2017

25844, Petro Harvester Operating, Portal-Madison, establish three 640-acre units; two horizontal wells each; Burke County
25845, BR, Twin Valley-Bakken, nine horizontal wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie County
25852, Freedom Energy, establish a 270-acre unit; two vertical and/or directional wells, Stark County
25857, BR, Westberg-Bakken, 16 wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 2/11/14/23-152-97, McKenzie
25858, BR, Elidah-Bakken, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit; 16 wells on a 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
25859, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie

June 29, 2017

25898, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, seven wells in an overlapping 1280-acre unit; McKenzie
25899, Samson Oil and Gas, Foreman Butte-Madison, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit to facilitate an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; sections 20/29-150-102, McKenzie
25901, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 34-147-96 and 3-146-96, Dunn County

Summary of Full Agenda
June 28, 2017

25841, NDIC commission to confiscate assets associated with Urlacher well in Hettinger County, operated by P & M Petroleum Management
25842, NDIC commission .... ditto ... with Redetzke SWD, ... ditto
25843, MRO, Antelope-Sanish, exceptions for a single well, #30133, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, McKenzie
25844, Petro Harvester Operating, Portal-Madison, establish three 640-acre units; two horizontal wells each; Burke County
25845, BR, Twin Valley-Bakken, nine horizontal wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; McKenzie County
25846, Legacy Reserves, exceptions for a single well, #12227, Gearey Horizontal 1, Golden Valley
25847, Kraken Oil, Winner-Bakken, establish five 2560-acre units; 1 well each; Williams
25848, Kraken Oil, Lone Tree Lake and/or Oliver-Bakken; establish two 2560-acre units; one well each; Williams County
25849, Kraken Oil, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken, establish two 2560-acre units; one well each; Williams
25850, Kraken Oil, Hebron-Bakken, establish two 1920-acre units; one well each; Williams
25851, Kraken Oil, Hebron and/or Squires-Bakken; establish a 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams
25852, Freedom Energy, establish a 270-acre unit; two vertical and/or directional wells, Stark County
25853, treating plant, Williams County
25854, treating plant, McKenzie County
25855, Luff, conversion SWD
25856, BR, commingling
25857, BR, Westberg-Bakken, 16 wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 2/11/14/23-152-97, McKenzie
25858, BR, Elidah-Bakken, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit; 16 wells on a 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
25859, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
25860, Hess, commingling
25861, Petro-Hunt, pooling
25862, Petro-Hunt, pooling
25863, Petro-Hunt, pooling
25864, SM Energy, commingling
25865, SM Energy, commingling
25866, SM Energy, commingling
25867, SM Energy, commingling
25868, SM Energy, commingling
25869, SM Energy, commingling
25870, SM Energy, commingling
25871, SM Energy, commingling
25872, SM Energy, commingling
25873, SM Energy, commingling
25874, SM Energy, commingling
25875, SM Energy, commingling
25876, SM Energy, commingling
25877, SM Energy, commingling
25878, SM Energy, commingling
25879, SM Energy, commingling
25880, Sm Energy, commingling
25881, SM Energy, commingling
25882, SM Energy, commingling
25883, SM Energy, commingling
25884, SM Energy, commingling
25885, SM Energy, commingling
25886, SM Energy, commingling
25887, SM Energy, commingling
25888, SM Energy, commingling
25889, SM Energy, commingling
25890, SM Energy, commingling
25891, SM Energy, commingling
25892, SM Energy, commingling
25893, MRO, pooling
25894, MRO, pooling
 
June 29, 2017

25895, EOG, Niobe-Bakken, proper spacing, Burke County
25896, North Range Resources, temporary spacing for oil/gas pool discovered, Sheep Creek Storm #1-1V, McKenzie County
25897, NDIC commission, Elm Tree-Bakken, appropriate spacing in a 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
25898, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, seven wells in an overlapping 1280-acre unit; McKenzie
25899, Samson Oil and Gas, Foreman Butte-Madison, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit to facilitate an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; sections 20/29-150-102, McKenzie
25900, GEM Razorback, legalese, risk penalty involving Zenergy; McKenzie
25901, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 34-147-96 and 3-146-96, Dunn County
25902, CLR, commingling
25903, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, pooling
25904, XTO, pooling
25905, Trendwell Energy, pooling
25906, Statoil, pooling
25907, Statoil, pooling
25908, Statoil, pooling
25909, Statoil, pooling
25910, Statoil, pooling
25911, Statoil, pooling
25912, Statoil, pooling
23913, WPX, commingling
25914, WPX, commingling
25915, WPX, commingling
25916, WPX, commingling
25917, WPX, commingling
25918, WPX, commingling
25920, Crescent Point Energy, SWD, Williams County
25921, SWD, Williams
25922, Uran SWD, Mountrail
25923, Statoil, SWD, McKenzie
25924, Liberty Resources, SWD conversion, Williams
25925, Zargon, Truro field, conversion to enhanced recovery into the Truro-Madison Unit of the TMU #10 well (#10534), Renville County
25962, Henry Hill, SWD, Williams

Cooler Weather In Germany Blamed For Higher Carbon Emissions -- I Cannot Make This Stuff Up -- June 2, 2017

From cleanenergywire:
  • German CO2 emissions rise in 2015 despite renewables surge.
Say what? Why?
Germany’s CO2 emissions have inched up in 2015 despite a rapidly increasing share of renewables in electricity production, according to first calculations by energy market research group AG Energiebilanzen.
The main cause for the year-on-year rise were cooler temperatures compared to 2014.
The rise frustrates hopes Germany’s Energiewende has already put the country's emissions on a faster downward trend.
Because Germany’s own ambitious climate targets for 2020 are already in danger, the new figures put pressure on the government to follow-through with its near-term climate action plan.
Wow, colder weather ... colder weather ... caused a rise in carbon emissions in Germany despite all that renewable energy.

I can't make this stuff up.

Meanwhile, the US continues to reduce it carbon emissions. For what it's worth. I could / could not care less about carbon emissions.

As Expected: GDPNow Forecast For 2Q17 Slumps After Jobs Report -- June 2, 2017

Link here.

Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — June 2, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on June 2, down from 4.0 percent on June 1.

The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 0.72 to 0.17 after the report.

It Just Keeps Getting Better And Better -- June 2, 2017

From John Kemp, via Twitter:

The Market Remains On A Tear, Despite ... -- June 2, 2017

Wow, wow, wow.
  • Trump destroyed the planet
  • May's US jobs report is atrocious
  • the Fed is still intent on raising rates
And what do we get? More records being set. On a Friday. Before going into a weekend.
  • S & P 500: up 6.61
  • Nasdaq: up 44.25
  • Dow 30: up 67.55
Steve Liesman over at CNBC is happy with
  • 1% growth
  • 120,000 new jobs each month (magic numbers)
  • the Fed raising rates
Trump will be happy with
  • 4% growth
  • 200,000 new jobs each month (magic numbers)
  • if the Fed just goes away along with the rest of the swamp
All things being equal, I tend to lean a bit more toward The Donald.

Are US Retailers Failing 'Cause No One Is Buying Cardigan Sweaters Any More? -- June 2, 2017

Wow, this is a cool story. Again a huge "thank you" to a reader.

A publicly-held company simply wants to reverse the flow of refined products in one of their pipelines.

The pipeline currently takes refined products from Pennsylvania refineries and moves those fuels to the midwest.

Buckeye wants to reverse the flow of these fuels, moving refined products from the west to the east.

If approved:
  • winners: midwest refiners
  • losers: Pennsylvania refiners -- apparently affecting five refiners
This would also be the first step in this two-step dance to get midwest refined products (i.e., gasoline and diesel) to the East Coast for export to Europe.

I don't have a dog in the fight, so it will be fun to watch.

The link is at Reuters.

The map of the area under discussion:


Regardless of how it turns out, again, just one more story on how much energy this country now has for export.

I guess we really could drill our way out of high prices. LOL. Cardigan sweaters? Maybe that's why big box retailers are failing -- no one is buying cardigan sweaters any more. LOL.

Wow -- Now, It's The Road To Taiwan Where Electricity Fees Could Jump As Much As 40% -- June 2, 2017

From a site that I visit at least six times daily. LOL. Just kidding. I've never seen this site as far as I know but fortunately a reader was kind enough to send me this link from Focus Taiwan News Channel: electricity prices forecast to rise 10% in nuclear-free Taiwin. In fact, it may be worse.

The politician in charge of Taiwanese economics rejects projections of a 40% hike in electricity fees.

Most likely the answer lies somewhere between 10% and 40%. And considering the 10% is being espoused by guys who want to be re-elected something tells me the number is going to be closer to a 40% increase in electricity costs if Taiwan phases out nuclear power by 2025.

Wow.

Regardless of the number the fact remains: the gap between energy costs in the US and the rest of the world is going to continue to widen over the new couple of decades. Manufacturers know that. Even Mexico is going to need more natural gas from the US to meet demand by manufacturers.

Making America Great Again; GDP Forecast Back To 4.0% -- June 2, 2017


**************************************
GDP Now

A new estimate is coming out later today. It will be interesting to see how the new forecast changes in light of the jobs report earlier today.

The most recent GDP forecast was just yesterday:
Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — June 1, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.
The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The forecasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.30 to 0.72 after the report.
*************************
Amazon Employees

Mark Cuban, according to CNBC: "Everyone deals with Amazon every day. When did you last see an Amazon employee?"

I see several Amazon employees every day:
  • the US postman comes by every day at 12:30 p.m. local time
  • the UPS brown truck usually drives through our apartment complex twice daily
  • FedEx comes through several times weekly  
I don't know if I've ever seen a Mark Cuban employee -- unless the Dallas Mavericks can be seen as employees. 

Worth Re-Posting -- Global Crude Oil Supplies Increased First Three Months Of 2017 -- June 2, 2017

A gazillion stories on the oil sector will be reported this month (as every month). It's hard to sort out the most important story or data point among all those stories. It's hard to think there's a bigger or more important data point than this one from the IEA: global crude oil inventories actually increased during the first three months of 2017.

The second most important data point, or possibly even more important: it is expected that US shale will more than make up for an OPEC / non-OPEC cut through March, 2018. From that same link:
The US could add up to 1.5m barrels per day to global oil production next year, nullifying the impacts from the deal, which was extended by nine months in May, according to Igor Sechin.
The story that could be bigger before the end of 2017: the OPEC / non-OPEC pact begins to show signs of cracking.

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same -- June 2, 2017

Back on January 28, 2016, The Financial Times said OPEC was irrelevant. It seems things haven't changed, although now The Financial Times says the shale surge could make OPEC obsolete. Seems like that train has already left the station. But from today's linked article:
Ramped up US shale oil production could erase any gains in the oil price achieved by a landmark deal between Russia and Opec to cut production, the chief executive of Russian oil giant Rosneft said on Friday. 
The US could add up to 1.5m barrels per day to global oil production next year, nullifying the impacts from the deal, which was extended by nine months in May, according to Igor Sechin. 
The supply cut deal between global producers attempts to curb bloated stockpiles that have kept prices under pressure. Brent crude is languishing below $50 a barrel – half the level of its 2014 peak. Speaking at a conference in St Petersburg, Mr Sechin also cast doubt on the prospects for a large increase in electric car usage.
I talked about this just a few minutes ago.

******************************
The Cut
The More Things Change, The More Things Stay The Same


From Reuters:
When OPEC struck its original supply deal in November last year, few had banked on such rapid increases in crude production elsewhere, such as U.S. shale oil, or on slowing demand growth in emerging powerhouses such as India or China.
Inventories across the most developed nations have barely budged. According to the International Energy Agency, oil stocks rose by 24.1 million barrels in the first three months of the year to 3.025 billion barrels and, five months into the deal, a number of investment banks have cut their oil price forecasts.
That's nice. My memory is not so bad. Some months ago I thought I had read that global crude oil inventories stood at 3 billion bbls but couldn't find the source (quickly) so I moved on. Glad to see  my memory wasn't so bad.

What surprised me was that global crude oil inventories have actually increased. I thought Saudi had pretty much drawn down their storage based on all their published comments. Oh me, oh my.

Is This Important? -- June 2, 2017

From the EIA:


Flashback: the winter of 2009 - 2010 -- the Brits came within 72 hours of running out of natural gas.

****************************
Is This Important?

From Platts: UK South Hook May LNG regasification down 46% on five-year average. Wow. Some data points:
  • South Hook stocks began June 2017 at a mere 18% capacity
  • five-year average for June: 953 million cu meters
  • currently: 90 million cu meters
    • last month, 19 Qatari LNG tankers berthed in continental Europe
    • 15 tankers in April and 11 tankers in May
  • UK's South Hook LNG terminal last month (May) was almost 50% lower than 5-year average
  • a total of four Qatari LNG tankers berthed at South Hook last month 
    • in comparison, South Hook saw seven in May 2016 and eight in May 2015
  • Qatar: world's largest LNG producing country (that's what the article said)
  • Qatar: sent more tankers to Europe last month due to higher pricing in Europe

High-Intensity EOG Three Forks First Bench Frack In The Parshall Oil Field -- June 2, 2017

Three Forks First Bench. 1920-acre drilling unit.

The well:
  • 28434, 1,308, EOG, Fertile 102-0333H, Parshall, 46 stages, 11.91 million lbs, t12/16; cum 92K 4/17;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201730153331532412813114841096931
BAKKEN3-20173116644167121782791638256418
BAKKEN2-201723102601057410861332033146
BAKKEN1-20173118595186241697043633676243
BAKKEN12-20163031529309972297989408135341


Life As A Bakken Oilfield Worker -- Spring, 2017 -- Forbes -- June 2, 2017

From Forbes. Remember: we are in the "manufacturing phase" -- and currently "manufacturing" is sluggish.

******************************
Already Coming Apart

The new 9-month extension has not even taken effect yet -- it goes into effect July 1, 2017, and already the Russians are talking about "what next":
Russia is unlikely to prolong its supply deal with OPEC beyond the nine-month extension agreed last week, because by then it will have served its purpose, Oleg Vyugin, a Rosneft board member, said on Thursday.
Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, has borne the brunt of output cuts under the extension deal. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday that they are looking for ways to formalize a permanent alliance among oil producers to take more control of oil markets.
My hunch is that the OPEC-non-OPEC pact will fall apart well before March, 2018.

The bigger story, of course: just last month, everyone was still saying that US shale could not make up the shortfall. 

Unemployment Rate At 16-Year Low; Jobs Report Surprises! Market Continues On Its Sugar High -- June 2, 2017

Closing

Market futures (three new records):
  • Dow 30: up 57.59
  • Nasdaq: up 58.97
  • S & P 500: up 8.55
Original Post

Magic number: when you look at the "jobs number" coming out, remember:
For "new jobs," 150,000 will be the new "base." The final number under the Obama administration, was 156,000 but 150,000 is a nicer, rounder, easier-to-remember number; and, although the report was described as "tepid" by The New York Times, it was associated with economic growth.
Jobs: forecast, 183K added to payroll jobs -- forecasts
  • 170K, slight uptick in unemployment rate
  • 169K (Austin Goldsby), but unemployment rate drops a "tick"
  • 229K (Ryan Streeter), slight drop in unemployment rate
  • 233K (Rick Santelli), if it turns out to be a "weak" number, watch out! Key number to watch: 217K -- Rick after the number released:
  • 187K (Steve Liesman); after the number released, Steve: government employment was down 9,000;
And the number is: 138K -- wow! 4.3% unemployment -- ticks down from 4.4%. What's the disconnect between ADP (253K) and today's number? It turns out everyone's model is +/- 50,000.

16-year low: unemployment number at 4.3%. Full employment. Happy days are here again. 

Jobs, over at Bloomberg: link here.
Cooler hiring may partly reflect the challenge of finding skilled and experienced workers amid a tightening job market. It may also be a sign businesses are reluctant to expand their workforce until they see more evidence the new administration’s plans are translating into legislation that’ll reduce taxes and spur growth.
Jobs, revision: the biggest concern for me was the April number revision -- to 174,000 from 211,000 originally reported. It's one thing for different models to vary on any given report, but how does the same model cause such a discrepancy (original report vs revision)?

The numbers don't add up!

Lunch_Nov_2106
 

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Economy: US factory activiyt edges up; private payrolls surge. Some analysts wonder if the 253K ADP number yesterday was "real." If accurate, people talking about "full employment." "Running out of bodies."

WTI: drops again. Down 2%. Below $48.

Active rigs:

$47.356/2/201706/02/201606/02/201506/02/201406/02/2013
Active Rigs492581188187

Market futures:
  • Dow 30: 71 (after jobs report: up 26)
  • Nasdaq: up 18.25 (after jobs report: up 11.50)
  • S & P 500: 5.25 (after jobs report: up 1.00)
  • Larry Summers: "sugar high" -- said it was a "sugar high" back in December, 2016 -- CNBC, certainly there must be some "statute of limitations" 
Rover: all-out effort to Keystone this natural gas pipeline (story everywhere, no links). Lead-in to next article -- RBN Energy's update on Rover, other Marcellus/Utica pipelines.

RBN Energy: continuing series on Rover and other Marcellus/Utica takeaway projects ot he midwest, Canada.
REX’s full-scale reversal was a watershed for capacity-constrained Marcellus/Utica producers. Ohio has been the fastest growing producing area within the Northeast over the last couple of years, rocketing 3.0 Bcf/d higher between early 2014 and January 2017. That’s about 36% of overall Northeast production growth during that period.
As big as the REX reversal has been for Appalachia gas production, additional pipeline projects will more than double that capacity by the end of this year, marking the next watershed for Northeast producers. 
By far the single largest expansion — the motherlode, so to speak — of takeaway capacity on the radar currently, not just for the Midwest corridor but for the Northeast as a whole, is Energy Transfer Partners’ (ETP) 713-mile, 42-inch-diameter Rover Pipeline.
Rover Pipeline — a joint venture of ETP and Traverse Midstream Partners — will pick up as much as 3.25 Bcf/d of gas from processing plants in West Virginia, southeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania and deliver nearly 70% of that to interconnects at the Midwest Hub near Defiance, OH, by July 2017 (phase I). From there, the pipe will turn north and head to the Michigan and Dawn, Ontario, market areas via an interconnect with the Vector Pipeline in Livingston County, MI, by November 2017 (phase II).
The project, which is backed primarily by producers, is expected to unleash constrained Marcellus/Utica production into the U.S. market. Rover also is critical to plans by ETP to make more of its Trunkline and Panhandle Eastern Pipeline bidirectionality to allow delivery of more Marcellus/Utica gas to the Gulf Coast and other markets.